Grain Markets Where are We Headed? Grain Markets Where are They Headed? Lawrence Klusa Grain Marketing, Business Unit Leader Indigenous Ag Summit November 21, 2017
Agenda Agri-Trend Marketing Trimble/Agri-Trend My background This year s crop situation Next year s crop situation
Who is Agri-Trend Professional agriculture coaching Started in Canada Agri-Trend is 20 years old Farm Forum Event Dec 3 to 5 in Calgary
Agri-Trend Coaching services help farmers allocate scarce resources to produce a safe, reliable, and profitable food supply in an environmentally sustainable manner.
We make farmers more profitable by providing: Innovative agricultural leadership Unbiased, independent advice Confidence to make better decisions
Innovative and Profitable Grain Marketing Strategies
Strength of the AGRI-TREND Network Over 4+ Million Acres
Grain Marketing Programs Market Flash Plan Market Intelligence Plan Strategic Marketing Plan Strategic Marketing Plan Plus
Market Flash Plan AM/PM Call Market information Futures Prices - text or e-mail 2x or 4x times a day Price Summary- futures, basis and cash changes Technical Analysis - technical analysis report Grain Reports - review of major US and Cdn reports Weather 2x weekly of major trends in weather during growing season Ag Advance Trade Journal produced by Agri-Trend Senior coaches
Market Intelligence Plan Market Flash Plan Network Market Insider recommendation report Grain Market Coach access Trimble Ag Business Software including Grain Marketing components TABS generic crop planning tool Mercantile MarketShare newsletter
Strategic Marketing Plan Marketing Intelligence Plan Network Market Insider report customized to the clients farm operation Grain Marketing Plan for farm Grain Market Coach full access and farm visits TABS Setup and assistance with operation TABS crop planning tool customized to farm
Strategic Marketing Plan Plus Strategic Marketing Plan components Plus: Grain sample management Logistics planning More involvement in strategic planning Increased Coach Visits Coach becomes more of an employee than and independent consultant
DECEMBER 2016 - ATHENS Trimble Ag Business Solutions
Trimble Purchased Agri-Trend in 2015 Trimble is best known for GPS technology Trimble is over 38 years old Trimble products are used in over 150 countries Trimble holds over 1200 patents Trimble has offices in over 35 countries
Trimble Industries include: Land Survey, Construction, Agriculture, Transportation, Telecommunications, Asset tracking, Mapping, Utilities, Mobile Resource Management, Government
Trimble Industries include: Land Survey, Construction, Agriculture, Transportation, Telecommunications, Asset tracking, Mapping, Utilities, Mobile Resource Management, Government
Trimble Agriculture Field Solutions Integrated, precision agriculture systems to maximize your farm productivity and profitability Guidance and Steering Correction Services Flow and Application Control Yield Monitoring Water Management
Trimble Agriculture Software & Services Professional ag business solutions for farmers, advisors, ag retailers and food processors. Farm Software Crop Advisor Software Ag Retail Software Food Processor Software Agronomics Services
Population Growth 1 farmer feeds 15.5 people 1 farmer feeds 25.8 people 1 farmer feeds 47.4 people 1 farmer feeds 75.7 people 1 farmer feeds 100 people 1 farmer feeds 155 people 1 farmer must feed >200 people Tractor power replaces animal power on farms Seeding becomes more efficient 4-wheel drive tractors are common Biotechnology improves production Wireless GPS guidance systems introduced Genetics and Data improves yield Integrated Actionable Intelligence drives growth 1950 s 1960 s 1970 s 1980 s 1990 s 2010 2020 3.7 Billion 7 Billion 8.4 Billion
What Role Does Ag Software Services Play? Precision Ag Requires Software Complexity = More Fields x More Zones x More Products Connectivity with Equipment is VITAL Imagery Integration is Standard Sharing Data with Others is Expected (and required) SOFTWARE AND SERVICES ARE FOUNDATIONAL TO THE FUTURE OF AGRICULTURE
Global Independent Hardware Leader Precision Ag Requires Hardware Partnerships with major equipment manufacturers Deep understanding of data transfer and work flows Significant Installed Base
Solutions for all areas of the farming cycle LAND PREPARATI ON PLANTING WATER MANAGEME NT NUTRIENT & PEST MGMT IRRIGATION
Lawrence Klusa Mixed family farm at Floral, SK Learned to farm early age
Background Ag and Commerce U of S Consultant in AB for six years MBA from U of C
Background Grain Industry for 19 years Corporate Planning Commodity Futures Trader Quality Control Manager
Consulting Organic Fertilizer Pulse Industry First Nations
Agri-trend/Trimble Market coach Senior Market coach Business Unit Leader
Grain Markets
Grain Trade Basics
Corn 50 year chart
Inflation Adjusted Grain Prices
Corn 15 year chart
Corn 5 year chart
World Corn Production
US and World Corn Carryout
US Corn Ending Stocks
World Corn Ending Stocks
World Corn Production and Use
US Corn Total Supply
Ethanol and Biodiesel Production
Corn and Soybean use for Fuel
US Corn Usage
US Corn Usage
US Corn Production
US Corn Yield
US Corn Prices
US Corn Exports
HRW Wheat 50 year chart
HRW Wheat 15 year chart
HRW Wheat 5 year chart
HRS Wheat 5 year chart
HRS HRW Spread 20 Yr
HRS HRW Spread 5 Yr
HRS HRW Spread 1 Yr
HRW Protein Levels
US HRS production
US Spring Wheat Carryout
US HRW Production
US HRW Carryouts
World Wheat Production
World Wheat Importers
US and World Wheat Carryout
World Wheat Ending Stocks
US Wheat Ending Stocks
US Wheat Production
Australia Wheat Production
Canadian Wheat Production
Russia Wheat Production
Soybean 50 year chart
Soybean 15 year chart
Soybean 5 year chart
US and World Soybean Carryout
World Soybean Ending Stocks
US Soybean Ending Stocks
China Soybean Usage
China Soybean Imports
US Soybean Export Sales
Vegetable Oil Prices
Canola AAFC projecting canola carryout smaller than last year Exports and crush slightly lower Currently, 0.4 mt ahead of last yr Crush, 0.1 mt behind last yr
World Pea Production
World Pea Supply and Demand
Canadian Pea Exports
India Pulse Production and Imports
India Pulse Production
India s Food Grain Production
Positive for Peas Peas are high in protein Market is short protein Peas into pet food about $6.80/bu Feed peas about $5.00/bu 50 bu peas at $5 better than 70 bu feed barley at $3.50 These price may not hold next year if we get back to higher protein
Lentils The biggest market for Canadian lentils is India (33%) India buys 0.5 to 1.0 mt The 2 nd is Turkey at (20%) Talk of import duties on lentils
Chickpeas India s preferred pulse Buyers mix pea flour in CP flour CP prices strong at.70/lb Difficult to grow Seed is about $1.00/lb
Barley Quality was excellent Supply about 0.7 mt less than last year Export pace is strong Carryout will be tight
Oats More production in Canada this year Less production in the US Prices will depend on export demand Currently exports 25% ahead of last year
Durum AAFC projecting one of the tightest durum carryout ever Exports similar to last year Almost all durum and spring wheat in top grades StatsCan at 29 bu/acre SaskAg is at 35 bu/acre Difference is a 1.0 mt
Where are Grains Headed Canola higher (beans?) Soybeans likely lower Corn sideways HRW Wht likely lower HRS Wht likely higher Pulses likely lower Barley sideways Oats sideways
Questions
Lawrence Klusa, MBA, BSA, P.Ag. AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach e. lklusa@agri-trend.com t. 204 489 1225 c. 204 803 8884