Energy Security and the United Arab Emirates Anthony Hechanova, Ph.D. Senior Faculty, Head of Advanced Energy Division Abu Dhabi Polytechnic Symposium on Energy Security Naif Arab University for Security Studies Riyadh, Saudi Arabia 28-30 March 2016
Outline Introduction Energy Profiles in the UAE Energy Sustainability Target
About the Presenter RELEVANT PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE August 2010 to Present: Abu Dhabi Polytechnic, United Arab Emirates Senior Faculty and Nuclear Division Head Workforce Developer November 1995 to July 2010: Harry Reid Center, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, USA Associate Executive Director, Energy Programs, 2008-2010 Director, UNLV Transmutation Research Program, 2001-2010 Director, HRC Nuclear Division, 2000-2008 State Energy and Nuclear Expert September 1988 to February 1995: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA American Nuclear Society, MIT Student Branch, Public Information Officer, 1989-1991 Nuclear Research and Outreach
Quote from The Art of War If you know the enemy andknow yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. Sun Tzu, 5 th Century BC
Quote from The Art of War If you know theuse and know your resources, you need not fear the result of an energy policy. If you know your resources but not the use, for every victory gained you will also suffer a miscalculation. If you know neither the use nor your resources, you will succumb in every endeavor. Adaptation for Ene rgysecurity
UAE Primary Energy Source Profile Residential 20% Oil 36% Transportation 30% Coal 2% Gas 62% Industrial 30% Commercial 20% Primary Source
Primary Energy Source Profile Oil 36% Nuclear 6.4% Hydro 2.2% Bio 11% Other Renew 0.4% Oil 34% Coal 2% Gas 62% Coal 25% Gas 21% Primary Source UAE World
UAE Total Primary Energy Consumption 5 4 Quads 3 2 ~8 yrs 1 ~4 yrs ~16 yrs 0 1980 1990 2000 2010
UAE Total Electricity Consumption Billion kwh 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 ~6 yrs ~8 yrs 10 0 ~10 yrs 1980 1990 2000 2010
UAE Total Electricity Consumption Billion kwh 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 ~8 yrs ~6 yrs 10 0 ~10 yrs 1980 1990 2000 2010
UAE Forecasting ADWEC forecasting has been very accurate (within 5%)
UAE Generating Capacity Gross (MW) Source: DEWA
UAE Installed Capacity 30 25 20 Installed Capacity Actual Capacity Appears Very High GW e 15 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 Actual Capacity includes Availability Factor ADWEA exports outside UAE about 19% of its electricity And
UAE Monthly Electricity Usage Electricity use doublesin the Summ er versus the Winter Source: DEWA
Electricity use doublesin the Summ er versus the Winter Installed Capacity to Peak Demand is only 29% higher Source: DEWA
Electricity use doublesin the Summ er versus the Winter Installed Capacity to Peak Demand is only 29% higher Virtually all electricity is produced by burning Natural Gas (98%) with small amounts from oil and about 20 MW of installed solar GW e 30 25 20 15 Installed Capacity Actual Capacity 10 5 0 1980 1990 2000 2010
Rationale for Nuclear Power Barakah Units 1-4 can make up for the net imports of natural gas
Equivalent to adding 1200 MW actual capacity each year
17% 11% A Present Target Sustainable Energy Distribution Energy Distribution (Power) by 2040 1% (Power) World (2009) 7% 1% 7% 15% nuclear 0% 7% 1% 4% 0% 0% 8% hydro 34% coal Present Energy Distribution (Transportation) oil 0% 5% 0% Petroleum fuels (including H for fuel bio cells) petroleum 95% gas 39% 28% 20% Oil Gas Nuclear (H for fuel cells) Biofuels Oil Gas Coal (all types) Coal (all types) Nuclear Nuclear Hydroelectric Hydroelectric8% gas Wind Wind Geothermal Geothermal Biofuels Biofuels Solar Solar (including H for fuel cells) Washington 11% coal 10% nuclear 64% hydro 7% other United States 44% coal 23% gas 20% nuclear 7% hydroelectric 4% biomass 2% other Indiana 94% coal 3% gas 0% nuclear 3% other United European Arab Union Emirates 30% coal 98% 18% gas 32% 0% nuclear 11% 2% other hydroelectric 6% oil 3% other Korea 43% coal 17% gas 5% oil 34% nuclear China 75% coal 5% gas 11% oil 3% nuclear 6% hydro <1% other New Jersey 14% coal 33% gas 50% nuclear 3% other
40 historic projected 40 30 In order to address any of the environmental issues we seem to care about: 30 20 over 20 trkwhrs must be non-fossil fuel 20 World presently at 15 trillion kwhrs/year 10 10 present fossil fuel contribution 2/3 of present total 1980 2000 2020 2040
With modern efficiencies, conservation and technologies, 3,000 kwh/year can provide an HDI > 0.8; > 6,000 kwh/year is unnecessary and wasteful Human Development Index (HDI) Germany 1.0 China (500) Korea 0.8 Russia UK Indonesia Iran China Saudi Arabia Egypt 0.6 India Pakistan Angola Papua New Guinea Ethiopia China (800) 0.4 Niger Japan U.S. Australia UAE Prosperity Education Life span Canada 4,000 8,000 12,000 Annual Electricity Use (kwh/capita) 16,000 80% of the world s population of 7.2 billion people is below 0.8 on the U.N. Human Development Index (HDI)
How much energy do we need by 2040? - what levels are needed to end poverty, war and terrorism, i.e., raise everyone up to 0.8 HDI? Energy/capita needed Annual to raise HDI to >0.8 Approximate energy Subpopulation group or maintain at 0.9 subpopulation requirement Industrialized world - cut to 6,000 kwhrs/yr 1,400,000,000 8.4 tkw-hrs Intermediate - maintain 3,000 kwhrs/yr 1,400,000,000 4.2 tkw-hrs Developing world - increase to 3,000 kwhrs/yr 4,300,000,000 13 tkw-hrs Those born by 2040 - achieve 3,000 kwhrs/yr 1,600,000,000 4.8 tkw-hrs Total Annual Global Energy Requirement 30 tkw-hrs
The Target a Third, a Third and a Third - 1/3 fossil fuel, 1/3 renewables and 1/3 nuclear This requires renewables and nuclear worldwide to quadruple over what anyone is expecting by 2040: 2 million+ MW wind turbines; over 1,700 new nuclear reactors; a 100 bbl of biofuels; 3 tkwhrs from solar; 4 tkwhrs from other World (2009) 15 tkwhrs/yr Present Energy Distribution (Power) Present Energy Distribution (Power) 17% 15% nuclear 0% 0% 1% hydro renewables 0% oil coal 8% gas 39% 20% Oil Gas bio 2% 8% 0% Coal (all geo types) 3% solar Nuclear11% Hydroelectric hydro Wind 10% Geothermal Biofuels A Target Sustainable Energy Distribution by 2040 (Power) wind World (2040) 30 tkwhrs/yr nuclear 33% gas 16% coal 17% Oil Gas Coal (a Nuclea Hydroe Wind Geothe Biofue Solar Present Energy Distribution (Transportation) Present Energy Distribution (Transportation) 0% 5% 0% Petroleum fuels (including H for fuel cells) bio 30% Nuclear (H for fuel cells) A Target Sustainable Energy Distribution by 2040 (Transportation) bio 5% Fossil fuel solar 25% (including fuel cells) petroleum Nuclear (H cells) petroleum Biofuels (e -,H 2 -cars) nuclear Biofuels 95% Solar (including H for fuel cells) 40% Solar (incl
The most likely scenario given the direction of present investment, development and policy Dramatic increase in coal and development of unconventional fossil fuels Present Energy Distribution (Power) Present Energy Distribution (Power) 17% 15% nuclear World (2009) 15 tkwhrs/yr 0% 0% 1% hydro renewables 0% oil coal 8% gas 39% 20% Oil geo+solar Gas 3% wind Coal (all types) 3% 12% Nuclear Hydroelectric Wind 15% Geothermal Biofuels An Industry Energy Distribution An Industry Energy Distrib by 2040 (Power) hydro nuclear World (2040) 30 tkwhrs/yr 0% oil coal other reneweables 0% O 4% gas 23% Ga Co ty Nu Hy ic W Ge Bi Present Energy Distribution (Transportation) Present Energy Distribution (Transportation) 0% 5% 0% Petroleum fuels (including H for fuel 30% cells) bio Nuclear (H for fuel cells) An Industry Energy Distribution by 2040 (Transportation) oil shale, tar sands, heavy oils 40% petroleum 35% Petroleum fue (including H f cells) Coal to gasoli petroleum Biofuels biofuel and others coal to gasoline Biofuels and o 95% 10% Solar (including H for fuel cells) 25% Unconvention (oil shale, tar
The Target a Third, a Third and a Third - 1/3 fossil fuel, 1/3 renewables and 1/3 nuclear A Target for Energy Sustainability 40 30 20 historic projected In order to address any of the environmental issues we seem to care about: over 20 trkwhrs must be non-fossil fuel 40 30 20 geo bio 10% A Target Sustainable Energy Distribution by 2040 (Power) 3% 11% wind hydro World (2040) 30 tkwhrs/yr 2% 8% solar 0% nuclear 33% gas 16% coal A Target Sustainable Energy Distribution by 2040 (Transportation) 17% 10 present fossil fuel contribution 2/3 of present total 10 30% bio 5% F solar 25% ( f petroleum N c (e -,H 2 -cars) nuclear B 1980 2000 2020 2040 40% S
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