Well-to-Wheels Results of Advanced Vehicle Systems with New Transportation Fuels Michael Wang Center for Transportation Research Argonne National Laboratory Advanced Transportation Workshop Global Climate and Energy Project Stanford University, CA, October 10-11, 2005 Argonne National Laboratory is managed by The University of Chicago for the U.S. Department of Energy
Well-to-Wheels Analysis of Vehicle/Fuel Systems Covers Activities for Fuel Production and Vehicle Use Vehicle Cycle (Under development with support from OFCVT and OPBA) Fuel Cycle Well to Pump (Ongoing development since 1995) Pump to Wheels 2
Petroleum Refining Is the Key Energy Conversion Step for Gasoline and Diesel Petroleum Recovery (97.7%) NG to MeOH Corn Petroleum Transportation and Storage (99%) MTBE or EtOH for Gasoline Petroleum Refining to Gasoline (84.5-86%, Depending on Oxygenates and Reformulation) and Low-S Diesel (87%) WTP Efficiency: Gasoline 80% Diesel 82% Transportation, Storage, and Distribution of Gasoline (99.5%) Gasoline and Diesel at Refueling Station 3
Production and Compression Are Key Steps for Gaseous H2 Production NA NG Recovery (97.5%) U.S. WTP Efficiency: NA NG-based 58% nna NG-based 54% nna NG Recovery (97.5%) nna NG Processing (97.5%) NA NG Processing (97.5%) LNG Production (88.0%) LNG Transport via Ocean Tankers (98.5%) G.H2 Production (71.5%) Steam or Electricity Export NG Transport via pipelines G.H2 Transport via Pipelines (96.3%) LNG Gasification in Ports G.H2: gaseous H2 L.H2: liquid H2 LNG: liquefied natural gas NA: North American nna: non-north American NG: natural gas G.H2 Compression at Refueling Stations (89.5% & 95.0% for NG & Electric) Compressed G.H2 at Refueling Stations 4
WTW Analysis Is a Complete Energy/Emissions Comparison As an example, greenhouse gases are illustrated here 5
The GREET (Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Transportation) Model Includes emissions of greenhouse gases CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O VOC, CO, and NO x as optional GHGs Estimates emissions of five criteria pollutants Total and urban separately VOC, CO, NO x, SO x, and PM 10 Separates energy use into All energy sources Fossil fuels (petroleum, natural gas, and coal) Petroleum There are more than 2,000 registered GREET users worldwide; GREET and its documents are available at Argonne s GREET website at http://greet.anl.gov 6
GREET Includes Transportation Fuels from Various Energy Feedstocks Petroleum Gasoline Diesel LPG Naphtha Residual oil Corn Soybeans Ethanol Biodiesel Natural Gas Nuclear Energy Coal CNG LNG LPG Methanol Dimethyl Ether FT Diesel and Naphtha Hydrogen Hydrogen Hydrogen Cellulosic Biomass Residual Oil Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Biomass Other Renewables Ethanol Hydrogen Methanol Dimethyl Ether FT Diesel and Naphtha Electricity 7
GREET Includes More Than 50 Vehicle/Fuel Systems Conventional Spark-Ignition Vehicles Conventional gasoline, federal reformulated gasoline, California reformulated gasoline Compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas Methanol and ethanol Spark-Ignition Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Grid-Independent and Connected Conventional gasoline, federal reformulated gasoline, California reformulated gasoline, methanol, and ethanol Compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas Compression-Ignition Direct-Injection Vehicles Conventional diesel, low sulfur diesel, dimethyl ether, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and biodiesel Compression-Ignition Direct-Injection Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Grid-Independent and Connected Conventional diesel, low sulfur diesel, dimethyl ether, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, and biodiesel Battery-Powered Electric Vehicles U.S. generation mix California generation mix Northeast U.S. generation mix Fuel Cell Vehicles Gaseous hydrogen, liquid hydrogen, methanol, federal reformulated gasoline, California reformulated gasoline, low sulfur diesel, ethanol, compressed natural gas, liquefied natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, and naphtha Spark-Ignition Direct-Injection Vehicles Conventional gasoline, federal reformulated gasoline, and California reformulated gasoline Methanol and ethanol 8
Fuel Economy Values of a 2010 Model-Year Midsize Car (Argonne s Simulations based on DOE FreedomCAR Goals 9
Hybrid Electric Vehicles Offer Great Market Potentials Cumulative Sales 280,000 240,000 200,000 160,000 120,000 80,000 40,000 0 Insight Prius Civic Escape Accord Total 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005* Hybrid sales have been strong since 1999 All major auto makers have plans to produce and sell hybrids Fuel economy gains among hybrid vehicle models vary significantly Risk exists that hybrid technologies could be used for vehicle performance 2005 data is through April 2005. 10
Advanced Vehicle Technologies in General Reduce GHG Emissions 800 700 600 FCV FC Hybrid ICE and Hybrid 500 400 300 200 100 0 PTW WTP 11 RFG ICEV Diesel ICEV RFG HEV Diesel HEV FCV: NG H2 FCV: H2 from EtOH FCV: US kwh H2 FCV: CA kwh H2 H2 FCV: Renew. kwh H2 FC HEV: NG H2 FC HEV: H2 from EtOH FC HEV: US kwh H2 FC HEV: CA kwh H2 FC HEV: Renew. kwh H2 GHG Emissions: g/mi
Since H2 Is Produced from Non-Petroleum Sources, H2 FCVs Almost Eliminate Petroleum Use 4,000 3,500 ICE and Hybrid PTW WTP 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 FCV FC Hybrid 1,000 500 0 12 RFG ICEV Diesel ICEV RFG HEV Diesel HEV FCV: NG H2 FCV: H2 from EtOH FCV: US kwh H2 FCV: CA kwh H2 H2 FCV: Renew. kwh H2 FC HEV: NG H2 FC HEV: H2 from EtOH FC HEV: US kwh H2 FC HEV: CA kwh H2 FC HEV: Renew. kwh H2 Petroleum Energy Use: Btu/mi
H2 FCVs With Ethanol and Average Electricity Could Increase Total NOx Emissions, But 1.5 1.2 FCV FC Hybrid 0.9 ICE and Hybrid 0.6 0.3 0.0 PTW WTP 13 RFG ICEV Diesel ICEV RFG HEV Diesel HEV FCV: NG H2 FCV: H2 from EtOH FCV: US kwh H2 FCV: CA kwh H2 H2 FCV: Renew. kwh H2 FC HEV: NG H2 FC HEV: H2 from EtOH FC HEV: US kwh H2 FC HEV: CA kwh H2 FC HEV: Renew. kwh H2 Total NOx Emissions: g/mi
H2 FCVs With NG, Ethanol, and Renewable Electricity Reduce Urban NOx Emissions 0.25 0.20 0.15 FC Hybrid ICE and Hybrid FCV 0.10 0.05 0.00 PTW WTP 14 RFG ICEV Diesel ICEV RFG HEV Diesel HEV FCV: NG H2 FCV: H2 from EtOH FCV: US kwh H2 FCV: CA kwh H2 H2 FCV: Renew. kwh H2 FC HEV: NG H2 FC HEV: H2 from EtOH FC HEV: US kwh H2 FC HEV: CA kwh H2 FC HEV: Renew. kwh H2 Urban NOx Emissions: g/mi
A Path from Conventional Technologies to Hybrids and Then to Fuel Cells Can Help Achieve Zero GHG Emissions Current GV CI Diesel Vehicle Gasoline HEV Oil Diesel HEV NG Distributed H2 FCV Natural Gas Cell. EtOH-to-H2 FCV Renew. Electro. H2 FCV Non-Fossil Domestic Well to Pump Pump to Wheel 0 100 200 300 400 500 Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gas Emissions (g/mi.) 15
North America Has Relatively Little Conventional Oil But 30% of Unconventional Oil Reserves 1200 1000 Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil Billion Barrels Crude Eq 800 600 400 200 0 Middle East North America Other Total 16
WTP GHG Results Show That Oil Sands Operations Are Carbon-Intensive 400,000 Low H 2 Use for Upgrade High H 2 Use for 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 17 Conv. Crude Gasoline OS Gasoline: mining, NG OS Gasoline: Mining, Coal OS Gasoline: Mining, Nuclear OS Gasoline: In-situ, NG OS Gasoline: In-situ, Coal OS Gasoline: In-situ, Nuclear OS Gasoline: mining, NG OS Gasoline: Mining, Coal OS Gasoline: Mining, Nuclear OS Gasoline: In-situ, NG OS Gasoline: In-situ, Coal OS Gasoline: In-situ, Nuclear WTP GHGs Emissions, Grams/bbl
There Are Several Major Projects of Building Plants for Fischer-Tropsch Diesel From Natural Gas Natural Gas Electricity Natural Gas Water Electricity Emissions Emissions Air Separation Oxygen? Syngas Production Electricity Generation Steam? Steam Emissions Synthesis Emissions Product Refining? here means optional Diesel, Naphtha, etc. 18
WTW GHG Emissions Results of NG-Based FTD in g/mmbtu 140,000 120,000 PTW WTP 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 CD-350 ppm S ULSD-15 ppm S FTD SA FTD kwh FTD Steam 19
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production Has Experienced Large Increases, and the Trend Will Continue 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 20 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Millions of gallons 2011 2012 Actual Production Energy Bill Requirement Source: Renewable Fuels Association
Ethanol WTP Pathways Include Activities from Fertilizer to Ethanol at Stations Agro-Chemical Production Agro-Chemical Transport Corn Farming Woody Biomass Farming Herbaceous Biomass Farming Corn Transport Woody Biomass Transport Herbaceous Biomass Transport Animal Feed (Corn Ethanol) Ethanol Production Electricity (Cellulosic Ethanol) Transport, Storage, and Distribution of Ethanol Refueling Stations U.S. WTP Efficiency: Corn-based EtOH 60% Cellulosic EtOH 41% 21
GREET WTP Analysis Shows Positive Energy Balance Value for Corn Ethanol But Negative Energy Balance Value for Gasoline 22
Most of the Recent Corn EtOH Studies Show a Positive Net Energy Balance 60,000 40,000 20,000 Marland&Turhollow Lorenz&Morris Shapouri et al. Agri. Canada Wang et al. NR Canada Shapouri et al. Wang Kim &Dale Kim &Dale Graboski De lucchi Net Energy Value (Btu/gallon) 0-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Weinblatt et al. Chambers et al. Ho Keeney&DeLuca Pim entel Pim entel Pim entel Patzek Pim entel &Patzek -100,000-120,000 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Energy balance here is defined as Btu content a gallon of ethanol minus fossil energy used to produce a gallon of ethanol 23
Corn EtOH Reduces GHGs by 18-29% While Cellulosic EtOH Yields 85-86% Reduction, on Per Gallon Basis of EtOH Used 0% -20% -40% -26% -18% -29% -21% -60% -80% -85% -86% -100% E10 GV: DM Corn EtOH E10 GV: WM Corn EtOH E10 GV: Cell. EtOH E85 FFV: DM Corn EtOH E85 FFV: WM Corn EtOH GHG Emission Reductions Per Gallon of Ethanol to Displace An Energy-Equivalent Amount of Gasoline E85 FFV: Cell. EtOH 24
Most Studies on GHG Emissions Show GHG Emission Reduction by Corn EtOH as Compared to Gasoline 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 25 GHG Changes EPA (1990): E100 EPA (1990): E85 Ho (1990): E100 Marland (1991): E100 Delucchi (1991): E100 Ahmed (1994): E100 Delucchi (1996): E95 Wang (1996): E100 Wang (1996): E85 Wang (1997): E85 Agri. Can. (1999): E85 Delucchi (2001): E90 Wang (2003): E85 Deluchi (2003): E90 Wang (2005): E100 Kim&Dale (2005): E100 NR Canada (2005): E100
Of the 11.8 Billion Bushels of Corn Produced in U.S. in 2004, About 12% Was Used for Ethanol Production U.S. Corn Usage by Segment 2004 Feed/Residual: 56.4% Export: 18.5% Ethanol: 11.7% High Fructose Corn Syrup: 5.2% Starch: 2.7% Sweeteners: 2.2% Cereal/Other: 1.8% Beverage/Industrial Alcohol: 1.3% Seed: 0.2% The U.S. produced 3.41 billion gallons of fuel ethanol in 2004, equivalent to 2.28 billion gallons of gasoline In 2003, the U.S. consumed 134 billion gallons of gasoline and 39 billion gallons of on-road diesel fuels Source: ERS/USDA, 2004, Feed Outlook (in RFA, 2005); EIA 26
Mil. dry tons per year A Recent Study by Oak Ridge National Laboratory Concludes 1.3 Billion Tons of Biomass Available in U.S. Per Year 400 Total: 998 mil. Dry tons 120 Total: 368 mil. Dry tons 300 100 80 200 60 100 40 20 0 0 27 products industry wastes Forest growth Fuel treatments (forestlands) Logging and other residues Urban wood residues Fuelwood Forest Perennial crops Corn stover Grains to biofuels Wheat straw Soybeans Other crop residues Other residues Manures CRP biomass Small grain residues
Argonne Evaluated Bio-EtOH, Bio-FTD, and Bio-DME from Six Production Options for the RBAEF Project Protein 1. bio-etoh /GTCC 3. bio-etoh /Rankine Feed Pretreatment CBP Separation Fuel Ethanol 5. bio-etoh /bio-ftd / GTCC 7. bio-etoh /protein / Rankine Power Plant: Gas and/or Steam Turbine Steam WWT Electricity 9. bio-dme /GTCC 11. bio-ftd /GTC Feed Gasification Gas Cleanup Fuel Synthesis FTD, DME Residual gas Power Plant: Gas Turbine Steam Electricity 28
The Six Biofuel Production Options Result in CO 2 and GHG Emission Reductions Relative Reductions (%) Fuel: Fuel Production Options CO 2 GHGs Bio-DME: DME/GTCC 94.9 83.3 Bio-FTD: FTD/GTCC 95.6 84.7 Bio-FTD: EtOH/FTD/GTCC 96.4 87.4 For GHGs More than 80% reduction with Bio-FTD and DME More than 60% reduction with Bio-E85 Corn E85 33.3 20.1 Bio-E85 : EtOH/ GTCC 70.9 60.9 Bio-E85: EtOH/ Rankine 69.7 60.2 Bio-E85: EtOH/FTD/GTCC 70.1 62.9 With 100% Bio-fuel, GHGs reductions are 82-87%. Per gallon of gasoline equivalent 29
Products Per Ton of Biomass Offer Large Energy and GHG Benefits by Displacing Petroleum Fuels, Petroleum Chemicals, and Conventional Power Less fossil use results in less GHGs In grams per ton of biomass In Btu per ton of biomass 30
Concluding Remarks With new transportation fuels, WTW analyses become necessary for comparing vehicle/fuel systems Both vehicle efficiencies and new transportation fuels can play a major role in reducing transportation s energy use and emissions While efficiency gains for vehicles with fossil fuels offer incremental GHG benefits, vehicles with renewable fuels offer great GHG reductions 31