MARKET TRENDS FOR FUEL CELLS Latest Update in Global Markets by Pauli Jumppanen Tekes Fuel Cell Annual Seminar September 14, 2010 Espoo, Finland
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE (The US Fuel Cell Council) Fuel Cell Industry Quoted or non-quoted registered specialized fuel cell industry enterprises Independent companies having fuel cells as their main business area Corporations and OEM s making significant fuel cell development or business outside their main business sectors Fuel Cell Industry Enterprise Sales of 1 million $US or larger, or R&D investment of 1 million $US or larger, or!5 or more employees Commercial Fuel Cell Product Offered for sales at an established price Offered with a written warranty Meets approved industry standards or is certified by an established industry body 2
STATE OF THE FUEL CELL INDUSTRY IN 2009/2010 Market drivers like climate change, energy independence and air quality problems, as well as the economic recovery, are speeding up the fuel cell development and sales in 2010 In 2009, the industry continued to grow despite the economic decline since late 2008. 25 000 fuel cell units making up165 MW power output were delivered instead of 18 000 units (85 MW output) in 2008 Fuel cell product sales amounted to c. 450 $US in 2009. Earnings of individual fuel cell companies declined by 15-20 % from 2008 In 2010, 40 000 60 000 units ( Increase of 60-140 % from 2009) making up 200-240 MW power output should be delivered according to different forecasts ( FCT, SBI & other) Correspondingly, fuel cell product sales should amount to 600 700 $US in 2010, 30-55 % up from the sales in 2009 Leaders in the 2009 markets (toys, APUs, micro chargers/pdas) will continue to increase their sales in numbers in 2010 Materials handling (trucks etc.), UPS/back-up and small stationary applications will be new commercial successes in 2010 MCFC and PAFC units will continue to lead the large stationary market still in 2010. Competing SOFC products are entering the pre-commercial markets The market dominance of the US, EU and Japan (c. 70 %) will decline due to increasing markets in China (transports), S. Korea (transports, CHP), India (back-up, transports), and later in S. Africa and Brazil 3
FUEL CELL TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT IN 2009/2010 The public funding in 2009 amounted to c. 2 billion $US, shared almost equally between the US, EU, Japan, and the rest of the world. An increase of 10-20% in the investment is forecast for 2010 Progresses in the technology development have been made e.g. in the below areas: Nano-materials applications: Decrease of platinum catalyst in PEMFC and DMFC units, new material combinations for electrodes and electrolyte, improved CO tolerance and cathode process, etc. HT-PEMFC development incl. manufacturing of specific MEAs (BASF/Germany) Maturation of passive DMFC technology: Increased energy intensity, lower catalyst loading, better crossover and water management, improved CO tolerance, etc.. Planar SOFC development: Testing of larger stacks for building 100+ kw class systems (Versa Power, Bloom Energy). SOFC system demos for bio fuels (Wärtsilä) Micro tubular SOFC development in Japan mchp programs: Increased durability and energy intensity MCFC and SOFC applications for combined electricity and hydrogen production by the use of high temperature electrolysis New metal and chemical hydride storage (cartridge, tube) solutions to store pure hydrogen Development of bio-chemical (entzyme-based, microbial) fuel cells for various applications: small portable units, various sensors, organic prints, biomedical energy units and bio energy production units 4
FUEL CELL MARKET CATHEGORIES IN 2009/2010 Product sector Supply driven Demand driven Portable Cell phones / smart phones Laptops, tablet PCs MP3 and other consumer electronics Various military units Toys Micro chargers Emergency packs Portable generators Transport Stationary Busses, personal cars Light duty vehicles APUs for ships and trains Micro CHP units (PEMFC, SOFC, AFC) Large HVAC units Large CHP units (SOFC) Prime power units APUs: for leisure Forklift trucks UAVs & aeropacks Large CHP units((mcfc, PAFC) Small UPS/back-up units (PEMFC) Grid-off prime power generators 5
FUEL CELL INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN 2009 Industry value chain 2009 Manufacturing capacity (MW) 2009 23 % Mater. & comp. Stacks & systems 17 % 1 % Manufacturing Integr. & distribution N. America Europe Asia 11 % 57 % 17 % Rest of world 65 % 9 % Production capacity and delivery volumes in 2007-09 (Sources: FCT & other) Year Production capacity (MW) Deliveries (MW) 2007 110 50 2008 175 85 2009 220 165 6
FUEL CELL PRODUCT DELIVERIES IN 2007-09 Deliveries (no of units) 2007-09 Deliveries (MW) 2007-09 30000 160 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 Transport Portable Stationary 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Transport Stationary Portable 0 2007 2008 2009 0 2007 2008 2009 (Source: FCT) 7
PRODUCT DELIVERIES BY AREA AND SECTOR OF INDUSTRY Deliveries (units/area) 2007-09 Deliveries (units/industry sector) 2009 30000 14000 25000 12000 20000 15000 10000 Rest of world Asia Europe N. America 10000 8000 6000 4000 Transport Portable Stationary 5000 2000 0 2007 2008 2009 0 N. America Europe Asia (Source: FCT) 8
PRODUCT DELIVERIES BY FUEL AND TECHNOLOGY IN 2009 Fuel split (no of units) 2009 Technology split (no of units) 2009 20 % 3 % 1 % 23 % DMFC 2 % 6 % 48 % Hydrogen Methanol Natural gas Diesel etc. PEMFC AFC SOFC MCFC+PAFC 24 % Other 72 % (Source: FCT ) Technology split by volume (MW) 2009 MCFC 45 % SOFC 2 % PAFC 20 % DMFC 2 % PEMFC 30 % AFC & other 1 % 9
MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF PORTABLE UNITS Deliveries (no of units) 2006-10 Main product groups (2009 deliveries) 24000 20000 16000 12000 8000 4000 Toys & education kits (5000+) Micro chargers PDAs, emergency kits Other consumer electronics MP3, GPS etc. Portable generators: Civil. military Skid-mounted generators A few others 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e (Sources: FCT & other) 10
MICRO FUEL CELL PRODUCTS 2009/2010 Horizon: H 2 production and storage Toshiba: Dynario charger (3W) Horizon: Toy car (2W) MTI Micro: Power source ( 95 Wh/day) 11
MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF TRANSPORT UNITS 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Deliveries (no of units) 2006-10 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e (Sources: FCT & other) Main product groups (2009 deliveries) APUs (leisure, ships, etc.) (4000) Trucks & other industrial (500) Personal cars (180) Busses (35-40) Small & specialty vehicles (180) Military : UAVs and other N.A. 12
TRANSPORT SECTOR FUEL CELL PRODUCTS 2009/10 SFC Energy AG: APU/EFOY 2200 ( 90 W, 2200 Wh/day) Daimler /Mercedes-Benz: Fuel cell hybrid bus UAV / H3: German Aerospace Agency Fuel cell hybrid truck (Plug Power) at Nestle, Dallas TX. 13
MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL STATIONARY UNITS Deliveries (no of units) 2006-10 Development programs 2009-15/20 20000 16000 12000 8000 4000 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e (Sources: FCT, national programs) Japan: Ene Farm 5000 units/year since 2009 Japan: NEDO SOFC mchp program 1000+ units/year after 2015 S.Korea: mchp program 2007-17 1500 units/year after 2012 Germany: Callux / NIP mchp program 2250 units in yeay 2012 72 000 uits in year 2020 Denmark: National mchp program 100 units up to year 2012 USA: mchp + CHP programs Californian SelfGeneration Initiative Program Palm Desert Energy Independence Program 14
RESIDENTIAL CHP UNITS 2009/2010 Toshiba: Ene Farm mchp unit (PEMFC - 0,7 kwe / µ e 31,5 %) CFCL: BlueGen (SOFC) unit (1,5 kwe / µ e 60 % + µ t 25 %) ) 15
MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE STATIONARY UNITS Market trends 2010 - UTC: PureCell M 400 (PAFC) unit (400 kwe + 200-500 kwt, µ e 37 % + µ t 50 %) Main products MCFC and PAFC units for CHP and HVAC applications Large SOFC units to enter CHP markets in 2012-13 Large PEMFC to enter UPS / back-up markets Bloom Energy s projects? Growth markets Bio gas & other industrial applications Commercial HVAC (CCHP) applications incl. absorpt. cooling UPS & prime power; fastest growing markets? Integrated hydrogen and power production Development & demo programs EU JIT/JU: Large Stationary Applications Germany: NEEDS/ NIP Stationary II US DoE: SECA Program California: SGIP Program Palm Desert EIP Program Bloom Energy: ES-5000 Energy Server (SOFC 100 kwe, µ e = 50 %) 16
LONG-TERM MARKET TRENDS Fuel cell markets are forecast to grow significantly during 3-5 years to come due to existing national and joint industry programs. For further growth, a significant increase in the private sector investments would be needed. Estimates for long-term markets and sales differ significantly from each others. For example: FCT 2010: 2010 sales: 58 000 units, and 2014 sales: 4 700 000 units (cumulative) SBI Energy: 2010 sales: 63 000 units ( $598 million), and 2014 sales: 221 500 units ($1,225 million) Besides the US, EU (Germany, the UK & other) and Japan, the fastest growing markets should be found in South Korea, China and India, and later also in Brazil and South Africa Growth in the near-term (2011-12) markets will be based on present demand driven products like micro fuel cell items (toys/chargers), portable generators, small APUs, UP/back-up units and mchp systems Micro chargers & PDAs are likely to become the first mass sales product in the consumer electronics. Significant numbers of fuel cell powered smart phones and PCs may enter the markets by 2012-13. Deliveries of large stationary fuel cell units (power plants) may start to grow by 2013-15 with competing SOFC units entering the markets Development of hydrogen highways with the construction of more fuel cell busses will progress steadily. Industrial production of fuel cell powered (hybrid) cars may not start earlier than in 2015-17 17
LONG-TERM MARKET FORECAST (Personal estimate) PRODUCT GROUP 2010 2011 (unis/year) Micro fuel cells Toys, education kids Chargers, smart phones PCs & other consumer electronics 10 000-20 000 5000-20 000 1000-2000 2012 2014 (units/year) 50 000-100 000 50 000-500 000 5 000-20 000 Portable generators (Incl. civil and military units) 2000-4000 7000-20 000 Vehicles Henkilöautot Bussit Niche-transport APUs Trucks & other materials handling Light duty and specialty vehicles Small stationary mchp UPS, back-up (incl. military units) Large stationary CHP, CCHP, H 2 & power UPS, back-up, prime power H 2 distribution Refueling stations Cartridges 250-500 30-50 5000-10 000 1000-2000 200-300 10 000-20 000 1000-2000 100-150 100-200 20-30 50 000 100 000 2000-5000 100-200 20 000-50 000 5000-10 000 500-2000 30 000-50 000 10 000-30 000 300-500 500-1000 30-50 200 000 1 000 000 18
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