PIEFA 2018 Conference Ivan Neville Branch Manager Labour Market Research & Analysis Branch Canberra Tuesday 1 May 2018 Industry/sector Strong jobs growth in some of the largest sectors Employment at Feb-18 ('000s) 2 Year Change to Feb-18 ('000s) 2 Year Change to Feb-18 (%) Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 325.8 4.3 1.3 Sheep, Beef Cattle and Grain Farming 109.3 20.4 23.0 Fruit and Tree Nut Growing 39.0 4.0 11.6 Agriculture and Fishing Support Services 24.1 8.2 51.1 Dairy Cattle Farming 23.8-6.6-21.8 Mushroom and Vegetable Growing 21.3 1.7 8.9 Nursery and Floriculture Production 15.3 1.7 12.4 Aquaculture 10.0 4.2 71.6 Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, February 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Jobs and Small Business trend data 1
The Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry 72% of employment is full-time working an average 48 hours a week vs. 69% and 40 hours a week for all industries 35% of workforce are owners or self-employed vs. 14% for all industries 69% of industry employment is male Full-time Owners Family or employment self-employed workers share 72% 35% 69% all industries 16% are contributing family workers (without pay) vs. 2% for all industries 14% 16% all industries 2% all industries 53% of total employment is male Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, February 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Jobs and Small Business trend data. 2016 Census Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is an ageing (and retiring) industry 2
Age shares of employment 30% 25% 20% 39% of industry 55 years or older up from 26% in 1998 while 19% for all industries 1998 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 15% 10% 5% 2018 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2018 All industries 0% 15-24 years 25-34 years 35-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65 years and over Source: ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, February 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Jobs and Small Business trend data Long term workers At least 20 years working at same business or employer Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing All industries Source: ABS Participation, Job Search and Mobility, Australia, February 2017 (cat. no. 6226.0) 3
The skill requirements are increasing The industry needs to attract skilled workers Skill requirements of the industry are increasing so more skilled workers are required Maintain competitiveness through productivity gains Productivity gains to come from higher educated workforce Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries, ABARES 2017 Survey found most farmers believed they needed to acquire new skills for new technology and/or work practices Identified primarily managers will need these new skills ABARES Labour Force Survey 2017 Source: Valle et al. 2017, Labour Force Survey, ABARES; Xia et al. 2017, Productivity in Australia's broadacre and dairy industries, ABARES 4
The industry is becoming more educated 69% 57% Post-school education 34% in 2006 46% in 2016 (all industries 65%) 16% 21% 7% 9% 8% 13% Year 12 and below Certificate III & IV Advanced Dip. & Dip. Bachelor degree or higher Source: 2006 Census; 2016 Census but is still not attracting enough educated workers Share of growth in employment with Bachelor degree or higher education, 2006 to 2016 Health Care and Social Assistance Education and Training Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration and Safety Retail Trade Financial and Insurance Services Accommodation and Food Services Construction Transport, Postal and Warehousing Administrative and Support Services Information Media and Telecommunications Other Services Arts and Recreation Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services Mining Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 7.6% 6.2% 5.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 15.0% 14.0% 22.6% Source: 2006 Census; 2016 Census 5
300 Demand for labour is picking up 250 Index (2008=100) 200 150 100 50 0 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17 Feb-18 Farmers and Farm Manager vacancies Farmers and Farm Managers employment Agricultural and Forestry Scientists vacancies Agricultural and Forestry Scientists employment Source: Vacancy Report, February 2018, Department of Jobs and Small Business, 12 month average; ABS Labour Force Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, February 2018 (cat. no. 6291.0.55.003), Department of Jobs and Small Business trend data A bumper year for Agriculture Exports grew by 20.5% to make up 5.4% of total exports. Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing was the fastest growing industry in terms of output Source: Industry Insights 1/2018 Flexibility and growth, Department of Industry, Innovation and Science 6
The looming shortage The ageing workforce will need to be replaced Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2016 2024 51,000 71,800 122,800 job openings 316,000 244,200 2016 workforce Replacement Expansion Source: Future job openings for new entrants by industry and occupation, 2018, NCVER research report 7
Expansion stronger for areas of growth Natural and Physical Science Professionals 2016 2024 Expansion will make up 63% of demand (vs 45% for all occupations) 22,000 12,800 34,800 job openings 97,500 84,700 2016 workforce Replacement Expansion Source: Future job openings for new entrants by industry and occupation, 2018, NCVER research report Where is this workforce going to come from? 8
Agriculture university completions are starting to move in the right direction Index of completions by field of study (100=2005) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 University completions by field of study 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 All fields Agriculture Environmental and Related Studies Agricultural Studies* STEM Note: Agricultural Studies excludes Forestry, Fishing and Environmental studies; Domestic graduates only Source: Department of Education and Training, Higher Education Student Data Collection, 2016, customised tables Can graduates be utilised better? % of graduates in employment 84% 86% % of graduates in full-time employment 66% 72% Extent to which skills and education not fully used (of full-time employment) 28% 41% Employer overall satisfaction with graduates 80% 84% Importance of qualification (graduate perspective) Importance of qualification (employer perspective) Agriculture and Environmental Studies 47% 56% 63% 64% All fields Source: Graduate Outcomes Survey 2017, Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching; Employer Satisfaction Survey 2017, Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching 9
Building the workforce Phased retirement Ongoing education and training Attract workers Competitive wages Job security Flexible work arrangements Growing your employee s skills base Apprenticeships Traineeships Graduate programs Mentorship Work experience programs Career progression Management skills Concluding thoughts Considerable employment challenges in the industry over the next few years Ageing workforce Expansion due, in part, to trade agreements Increased skill requirements Competition with other industries What can be done to attract students to the industry? How can the industry attract more females? 10
For more information and resources Occupational skill shortages information https://www.jobs.gov.au/occupational-skill-shortages-information National, state and territory skill shortage information https://www.jobs.gov.au/national-state-and-territory-skill-shortage-information http://lmip.gov.au/ http://joboutlook.gov.au/ 11