RES - causa di maggior flessibilità o possibile soluzione? Simone Biondi 18 Ottobre 2018 Un Ponte fra Università ed Aziende 2018
Beyond just the EU 2
Resource Adequacy: General Methodology Storage Available Generation Network Infrastructure Demand Deterministic Forecast: ENTSOs Scenarios Planned Outages Deterministic Forecast: ENTSOs Scenarios Stochastic Uncertainty: Wind generation Solar generation Forced outages Stochastic Uncertainty: Temperature 3
Different risks addressed with different timeframes Long term >10 years M i d term Several years Short term Several months 1 week Policy decisions Investment decisions Operational decisions REAL TIME UNCERTAINTY INCREASES 4
Definizione di flessibilità e (primitivi?) tentativi di quantificazione 5
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101 106 111 116 121 126 131 136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 Adequacy Forecast need for flexibility Probabilistic assessment of the residual load 60 GW RL = L W S 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 PV Wind Residual Load Ramp Demand Residual 6
DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BE CZ GR ITcs PT FI ITcn HU CH RO IE BG RS ITs DKw SK SE4 ITsic HR DKe SI NOm AL NI SE2 LT BA NOn LV EE MK ITsar CY SE1 LUg ME LUf IS MT LUb DKkf DEkf 99.9th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load Ramps (GW) 99th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load Ramp (GW) Adequacy Forecast need for flexibility 15 15 10 5 99.9th Percentile of Hourly Residual Load Ramps (GW) 10 5 0-5 -10-15 10.3 9.3 8.4 7.2 5.6 5.4 3.3 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4-1.5-1.8-1.3-1.1-1.5-3.6-3.0-5.0-4.7-5.9-8.6-9.9 DE TR GB FR ES ITn PL NL NOs SE3 AT BE 0 12 DE -5 10 TR GB 8 FR -10 6 ITn ES -15 4 PL 2 NL AT 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Installed Capacity of Wind and Solar Generation (GW) 7
Energy Transition: the flexibility challenge is real 50% generation capacity from variable RES by 2030 350 GW wind and PV to be connected by 2030 20% Higher installed variable RES capacity compared to peak demand 14 Countries with wind and solar outputs likely higher than 80% 20% Reduction of dispatchable capacity margin over peak load 8
Quali strumenti per fronteggiare crescente flessibilità? 9
Interdependent measures to eliminate distortions Clean Energy Package: Where the European resource adequacy assessment identifies a resource adequacy concern Member States shall identify any regulatory distortions that caused or contributed to the emergence of the concern Strong Pan-European and technological interdependencies Need to coordinate and align activities Storage Energy Efficiency Generation Capacity Flexibility Interconnection Demand- Side Response 10
Spatial (Pearson s) correlations calculated from German onshore region 34_DE using the simulated wind generation data from the 2050 scenario Benefit from spatial aggregation Intuitively speaking, two countries do not face the most critical ramp at the exact same time due to: habitual differences between countries (e.g. different working time schedule, different mealtimes among countries, etc.) climatic conditions & spatial dependencies time zone differences Storage Energy Efficiency Generation Capacity Flexibility Interconnection Demand- Side Response 11
99.9th Percentile Hourly Ramps [GW] Benefit from spatial aggregation Storage Generation Capacity Flexibility Interconnection 80 70 10% 41% Energy Efficiency Demand- Side Response The aggregation has a balancing effect on the residual load. While in one country the residual load goes up, in another is possibly goes down and thus the region can be balanced via transmission of energy 60 50 40 30 20 +0.8 GW 5% +2.1 GW ES FR GB +22.2 GW 53.9 GW 10 FR FR TR 21.4 GW 16.7 GW DE DE DE 0 DE+FR Aggregated PLEF Aggregated ENTSO-E Aggregated 12
Insieme ai rinforzi di rete, cos altro serve? 13
Clean Energy Package EC proposals address the various issues 2022-2030 Active customer Scarcity pricing Removal of price caps Develop Policy Regions to promote progress and speed Easier supplier switching Risk preparedness framework European resource adequacy Regional Developments
New multi-sided orchestration platforms The customer rapidly promoted at the crossroad of systems Power flow Information flow TRADITIONAL ELECTRICITY VALUE CHAIN Power generation & trading Power transmission Power distribution Energy services (retail) Electric devices End-use customer Distributed resources (generation, storage, electric vehicles) EMERGING ELECTRICITY VALUE CHAIN Power generation & trading Power transmission Power distribution Energy services (retail) Electric devices End-use customer Data hubs Information & services platform owner Information services Information devices & appliances New market Orchestration role Page 15
A digital grid, is a key enabler to bring flexibility providers and flexibility users together Technical and economical features Residential DSR SME & Buildings Industrial Page 16
Enabling the energy transition Our network