CLIMATE CHANGE ASSESSMENT OVER THE ASSINIBOINE DELTA AQUIFER Allan Woodbury 1, Ken Snelgrove 2, Youssef Loukili 1 and Sitotaw Yirdaw-Zeleke 1 1 Department of Civil Engineering, University of Manitoba and 2 Memorial University, Newfoundland
Acknowlgements Gaywood Matile, Greg Keller: Manitoba Geological Survey Ted Horbulyk, University Calgary Manitoba Water Stewardship Funding: Drought Research Initiative Canadian Water Network Manitoba Climate Change Action Fund
Who is DRI? Co-leads: Ron Stewart (McGill) & John Pomeroy (Sask) Investigators: Bonsal (Sask/NHRC), Bullock (Man), Gyakum (McGill), Hanesiak (Man), Hayashi (Calg), Leighton (McGill), Lin (McGill), Pietroniro (Sask/NHRC), Snelgrove (Mem), Strong (Alta), van der Kamp (Sask/NHRC), Wheaton (Sask/SRC), Woodbury (Man) Collaborators: Boer (MSC), Cayas (Ouranos), Derome (McGill), Donaldson (MSC), Granger (NHRC), Johnston (SRC), Martz (Sask), Prowse (NWRI), Raddatz (Man), Ritchie (MSC), Shabbar (MSC), Sills (MSC), Szeto (MSC), Wittrock (SRC), Papakyriakou (Man)
Source: Majorowicz and Safanda (2005)
Overview 1. Objectives and background 2. Hydrogeology of the ADA 3. Groundwater modelling (MODFLOW) 4. Land surface modelling (CLASS) 5. Atmospheric modelling (MM5) 6. Coupling strategy 7. Software working tools 8. Field data required 9. Initial simulations and conclusions
Objectives Climate change impacts and adaptations for the ADA Couple atmosphere, surface and groundwater models
Provide : 1. Lower boundary condition for the atmospheric model 2. Management schemes for sustainability of water quantity / quality 3. Prediction of pollution stemmed from human practices over ADA
Prelude How do we deal with climate change now? Source: Fetter (2001, 4 th ed)
University of Waterloo Water Budget HELP3 MODFLOW M.I. Jyrkama, J.F. Sykes, and S.D. Normani, 2002. Recharge Estimation for Transient Ground Water Modeling. Ground Water, 40(6), 638-648.
Laural Creek Results Courtesy of M.I. Jyrkama Impact of recharge boundary condition on groundwater flow Simulated vs. observed water levels at a monitoring well
Enhancements WatCLASS Development Motivation for adding streamflow to atmospheric models Coupling WATFLOOD and CLASS (Snelgrove, 2002) Results BOREAS Tower simulations Point Scale BOREAS Study Areas Headwater Scale Mackenzie River Atmospheric Domain
ADA Hydrogeology
Sand and Gravel Isopach of the Assiniboine Delta Aquifer (ft) Bedrock 180 460 m Hydraulic Conductivity: 4 120 m/d Specific yield: 0.1 0.29 L.H. Frost and F.W. Render, 2002
Groundwater: MODFLOW
MODFLOW model test 30 25 Drawdown(m) 20 15 10 5 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Discharge (m^3/d)
Land Surface Scheme (Class) Second Generation Land Surface Scheme SENSIBLE EXCHANGE RADIATIVE EXCHANGE IR up r a MOISTURE EXCHANGE Evaporation Aerodynamic resistance ( r a ) Interception α veg Transpiration T c Canopy Temperature and humidity Leaves LAI Stomata Wind Leaf Drip Fraction vegetation cover & LAI Fn ( temperature & season) Snow IR up IR down r s ( light sensitivity changes r s ) Stems SAI Infiltration Surface α soil Runoff Fn ( soil wetness) T g Surface Soil Temperature Upper layer wetness Upper soil layer Lower Soil Temperature T gb Root Distribution Fn ( vegetation type) Full column wetness Full soil column Subsurface Runoff
Improved CLASS Soil Column Current CLASS Model θ 1 Surface Excess θ 1 WatCLASS θ 2 θ 2 θ 3 Drainage θ 3 Drainage
Improved CLASS Soil Column Current CLASS Model θ 1 Surface Excess θ 1 WatCLASS θ 2 θ 2 θ 3 θ 3 Time t=0 Drainage Drainage
Improved CLASS Soil Column Current CLASS Model θ 1 Surface Excess θ 1 WatCLASS θ 2 θ 2 θ 3 Time t=t 1 Drainage θ 3 Drainage
Improved CLASS Soil Column Current CLASS Model θ 1 Surface Excess θ 1 WatCLASS θ 2 θ 2 Time t=t 2 θ 3 Drainage θ 3 Drainage
Distributed Water Balance A L A L A L A L A L A L =A B A L A L A L Hydrologic P-E vs. no snow simulated streamflow 40 35 30 Atmosphere (A) mm of water 25 20 15 10 5 0 P-E -5-10 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Date Land Surface (L) Channel Network (C) Q L Q L Q L Q L Q L Outflow = Q L, Runoff = R L Outflow Q B,Runoff R B =Q B /A B
Distributed Water Balance A L A L A L A L A L A L =A B A L A L A L Hydrologic P-E vs. no snow simulated streamflow 40 35 30 Atmosphere (A) mm of water 25 20 15 10 5 0 P-E -5-10 Oct-95 Nov-95 Dec-95 Jan-96 Feb-96 Mar-96 Apr-96 May-96 Jun-96 Jul-96 Aug-96 Sep-96 Date Land Surface (L) Channel Network (C) Q L Q L Q L Q L Q L Outflow = Q L, Runoff = R L Outflow Q B,Runoff R B =Q B /A B Groundwater (G)
Atmospheric Models GCM3 200 km grid Climate Models CRCM4 45 km grid Weather Model GEM 15 km grid Land Surface Hydrology Models CLASS, ISBA, WATCLASS 15 km grid Hydrological Process Models CPM, CRHM 1 km grid
Atmospheric Modelling ( MM5 ) Domain set-up for MM5 run Center of the Course Domain: 54 O North, 98 O West Domain/ Grid dist. Grids E-W Grids N-S D01/90 Km 41 35 D02/30 Km 61 61 D03/10 Km 52 52 National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II data has been used to drive the model.
Model Output : Animated Hourly Temperature output: From 00Z01MAY2004 to 00Z02MAY2004
Model Output : Animated Hourly Relative Humidity output: From 00Z01MAY2004 to 00Z02MAY2004
Coupling Strategy MM5 CLASS MODFLOW
Parallelized / coupled modelling environment Models Observation MCT
Modelling Strategy Process Studies Integrated Modelling Level 0 GEM/RCM GCM WATFLOOD Level 1 GEM/RCM GCM CLASS WATFLOOD WatCLASS Level 2 GEM/RCM GCM WATFLOOD CLASS Level 3 GEM/RCM GCM CLASS with hydrology? WatROUTE Ground Water Process Studies
Software Working Tools Basics Numerical / hydrological modeling Computational analysis and optimization High performance computing Development MODFLOW : 70,000 code lines CLASS : 10,000 code lines Code structure analysis Scientific / industrial programming GIS : ArcView, ArcInfo, etc.
Field Data Required Land-Surface, Streams Groundwater Vegetation type Surface Soils Precipitation, Temperature Wind velocity, Humidity Radiation (long/shrt waves) Pressure Stream flow Snow depth Soil moisture Statigraphy Well Observations Pumping test Soil Samples Transmissivity Time series heads Evaporation and Runoff
Land Use
Initial Coupled Simulations Modflow mesh CLASS layers,,,,,, +, + + + + _ + + + + + + + ^ ^ ^^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^^^^ ^^^^ v v ^ ^ v v v ^ * * * * * * * v v * * v v * * * * * v v * v h^ (1) (2) (3) d^0 d * 1 h* + d h + 2, d, 1 h o o o o o o o o o o o oo o o o o o o o v _ d _ 2 h d v h v 3 o o o o Groundwater flow o d o 3 h o 1,40E-03 1,20E-03 1,00E-03 8,00E-04 6,00E-04 4,00E-04 2,00E-04 0,00E+00 Recharge to deep water table Recharge to shallow water table 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 Coupling Modflow with 7 CLASS runs. Recharge affected according to mean head below
0,0028 0,0028 0,0024 0,0024 0,002 0,002 0,0016 0,0012 0,0008 0,0004 0 Bare soil Needleaf trees Broadleaf trees Crops Grass Mean vegetation 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 0,0016 0,0012 0,0008 0,0004 Mean vegetation 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 Drainage from Layer 2 (left) and Layer 3 (right) in m/day, for different soil coverage Bare soil Needleef trees Broadleaf trees Crops Grass 274 272 270 268 266 264 262 260 Modflow Bare soil Needleaf trees Broadleaf trees Crops Grass Mean vegetation 258 256 254 252 250 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 Increase of deep water table according to recharge from Layer 3, for different soil coverage
Future Work Compare coupled MODCLASS model to carefully controlled field observations Obtain necessary data for Assiniboine Delta Aquifer RCM and look at climate change scenarios Imbed economics and policy alternatives
Conclusions Early versions of a linked atmosphere (MM5), land-surface scheme (CLASS), stream flow (WATFLOOD) and groundwater (MODFLOW) MODCLASS? Incompatibility of codes
Novelty of Research Aspects of internet technologies High resolution numerical simulations Scientific questions Societal impacts, economic analysis Integration of disciplines Maximize impact