On the Potential Large-Scale Commercial Deployment of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage Technologies: Findings from Phase 2 of the Global Energy Technology Strategy Project James J Dooley (dooleyj@battelle.org) Joint Global Change Research Institute Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Battelle PNNL-SA-52439 October 31, 2006 1
Climate change is a long-term strategic problem with implications for today Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and not their annual emissions levels should be the overarching strategic goal of climate policy. 5 This tells us that a fixed and finite amount of CO 2 can be released to the atmosphere over the course of - this century. We all share a planetary $250 greenhouse gas emissions budget. Every ton of emissions released to $200 the atmosphere reduces the budget left for future generations. $150 As we move forward in time and this planetary emissions budget is $100 drawn down, the remaining allowable emissions will become more valuable. $50 Emissions permit prices should steadily rise with time. $0 Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Gigatons per Year 20 15 10 $tonne CO2 (2000$) Historical Emissions GTSP_750 GTSP_650 GTSP_550 GTSP_450 GTSP Reference Case 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300 450 ppm Stabilization 550 ppm Stabilization 650 ppm Stabilization 750 ppm Stabilization 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2
Stabilization of CO 2 concentrations means fundamental change to the global energy system Global Primary Energy 1850-2100 (Exajoules) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 History and Reference Case 1900 296 ppm History 1950 311 ppm Today 380 ppm Future 2050 509 ppm 2100 717 ppm 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Preindustrial 280ppm Global Primary Energy 1850-2100 (Exajoules). 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Stabilization of CO 2 at 550 ppm History 1900 296 ppm 1950 311 ppm Today 380 ppm Future 2050 488 ppm 2100 547 ppm 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Preindustrial 280ppm Oil Natural Gas Coal Biomass Energy Non-Biomass Renewable Energy Oil + CCS Natural Gas + CCS Coal + CCS Nuclear Energy End-use Energy 3
Overview of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) 4
Overview of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) Courtesy of CO2CRC 5
Global CO 2 Storage Capacity: Abundant, Valuable and Very Heterogeneous Natural Resource 11,000 GtCO 2 of potentially available storage capacity U.S., Canada and Australia likely have sufficient CO 2 storage capacity for this century Japan and Korea s ability to continue using fossil fuels likely constrained by relatively small domestic storage reservoir capacity ~8100 Large CO 2 Point Sources 14.9 GtCO 2 year >60% of all global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 6
Global CO 2 Storage Capacity: Abundant, Valuable and Very Heterogeneous Natural Resource There appears to be sufficient global theoretical storage capacity to easily accommodate the demand for CO 2 storage for stabilization scenarios ranging from 450-750ppmv. Gigatons of CO 2 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 However, geologic CO 2 storage reservoirs, like many other natural resources, are not homogenous in quality nor in their distribution: Some regions will be able to use CCS for a very long time and likely with fairly constant and possibly declining costs. In other regions, CCS appears to be more of a transition technology. Latin America Africa Middle East Southeast Asia China Korea Japan Australia_NZ Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe Western Europe Canada 2,000 0 Potential Global Geologic Storage Capacity CO2 Storage Needed for 450 ppm Stabilization CO2 Storage Needed for 550 ppm Stabilization CO2 Storage Needed for 650 ppm Stabilization Ratio of Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2095 to Maximum Potential Geologic Storage Capacity by Region India USA CO2 Storage Needed for 750 ppm Stabilization 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 7
CCS Deployment Across the US Economy Large CO 2 Storage Resource and Large Potential Demand for CO 2 Storage 3,900+ GtCO 2 Capacity within 230 Candidate Geologic CO 2 Storage Reservoirs 2,730 GtCO 2 in s (DSF) with perhaps close to another 900 GtCO 2 in offshore DSFs 240 Gt CO 2 in on-shore filled basalt s 35 GtCO 2 in depleted gas fields 30 GtCO 2 in unmineable coal seams with potential for enhanced coalbed methane (ECBM) recovery 12 GtCO 2 in depleted oil fields with potential for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) 1,715 Large Sources (100+ ktco 2 yr) with Total Annual Emissions = 2.9 GtCO 2 1,053 electric s 38 ethylene s 259 natural gas processing 30 hydrogen production facilities 19 ammonia refineries 126 petroleum refineries 34 ethanol production s 44 iron & steel foundries 7 ethylene oxide s 105 cement kilns 8
CCS Deployment Across the US Economy Differentiated CCS Adoption Across Economic Sectors $100 Capture Compression Transport Injection $80 The Net Cost of Employing CCS within the United States - Current Sources and Technology Cost, $tco2 $60 $40 $20 (5) (5) Large, Large, coal-fired coal-fired (<25 (<25 $120 (10) (10) Gas-fired Gas-fired (>50 (>50 $0 ($20) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Example CCS Cost Pair (4) (4) High High purity purity hydrogen hydrogen production production facility facility (<25 (<25 depleted depleted gas gas field field (3) (3) Large, Large, coalfired coalfired (<10 (<10 ECBM ECBM opportunity opportunity (2) (2) High High purity purity natural natural gas gas processing processing facility facility moderately moderately (~50 (~50 EOR EOR opportunity opportunity Net CCS Cost ($tco2) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 (1) (1) High High purity purity ammonia ammonia (<10 (<10 EOR EOR opportunity opportunity 2 1 3 4 5 6 ($20) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 CO 2 Captured and Stored (MtCO 2 ) 7 8 10 9 (9) (9) Cement Cement (>50 (>50 (8) (8) Smaller Smaller coal-fired coal-fired (<25 (<25 basalt basalt (7) (7) Iron Iron & steel steel (<10 (<10 (6) (6) Coal-fired Coal-fired moderately moderately (<50 (<50 depleted depleted gas gas field field 9
Assuming CCS technologies can deploy if needed, a valley of death scenario for coal usage in the United States is difficult to envision Most NERC Regions have significant CO 2 storage potential Current and projected natural gas prices have fundamentally altered dispatch economics The possible imposition of constraints on CO 2 emissions represents an additional factor that will fundamentally alter dispatch $tco2. $mmbtu. $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $- $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- Historical US Average Delivered Prices 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 CP1 CP2 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 Constrained Gas (FP2) Base Case Gas (FP1) Coal Gigawatts of Installed Coal-fired Electricity Capacity in the Continental USA Coal-fired electricity capacity could even expand beyond the no climate policy reference case 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Reference Case CP1FP1 CP1FP2 CP2FP1 CP2FP2 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 10
It is important to realize that we are in the earliest stages of the deployment of CCS technologies. The potential deployment of CCS technologies could be truly massive. The potential deployment of CCS in the US could entail: 1,000s of s and industrial facilities capturing CO 2, 24-7-365. 1,000s of miles of dedicated CO 2 pipelines. 100s of millions of tons of CO 2 being injected into the subsurface annually. The deployment across the rest of the world could be at least another order of magnitude. WRE450 WRE450: 2020 WRE450: 2035 WRE450: 2050 WRE550 WRE550: 2020 WRE550: 2035 WRE550: 2050 2020 2035 2050 11
Much work needs to be done to ensure that the potential large and rapid scale-up in CCS deployment will be safe and successful. The cost of capturing CO 2 is not the single biggest obstacle standing in the way of CCS deployment. No one has ever attempted to determine what it means to store 100% of a large s emissions for 50+ years. - How many injector wells will be needed? How close can they be to each other? - Can the same injector wells be used for 50+ years? - What measurement, monitoring and verification (MMV) technology suites should be used and does the suite vary across different classes of geologic reservoirs andor with time? - How long should post injection monitoring last? - Who will regulate CO 2 storage on a dayto-day basis? What criteria and metrics will this regulator use? 12
The Scope of the Scale-up Challenge Stabilizing at 550 ppmv Cumulative Global Carbon Stored Between 2005 and 2050: 33,000 MtCO 2 World CCS Projects Projected Lifetime CO 2 Storage 0-10 MtCO 2 10-20 MtCO 2 20-30 MtCO 2 250 Million tons CO2 (approximate amount CO2 storage needs of one 1000MW IGCC operating for 50 years 1: Big Sky Partnership* 12: RECOPOL 2: CO2SINK 13: Salt Creek NPR-3 3: Frio 14: Sleipner 4: Gorgon 15: Snohvit 5: Illinois Basin Partnership* 16: Southeast Partnership* 6: In Salah 17: Southwest Partnership* 7: K12B 18: Surat 8: Midwest Partnership* 19: West Coast Partnership* 9: Minama-Nagaoka 20: Weyburn 10: Otway 21: Yubari 11: Plains Partnership* *Denotes US DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships Bold text denotes existing or completed projects Stabilizing at 550 ppmv Cumulative U.S. Carbon Stored Between 2005 and 2050: 8,000 MtCO 2 13
GTSP Phase II Capstone Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage CCS technologies have tremendous potential value for society. CCS is, at its core, a climate-change mitigation technology and therefore the large-scale deployment of CCS is contingent upon the timing and nature of future GHG emission control policies. The next 5-10 years constitute a critical window in which to amass needed real-world operational experience with CCS systems. The electric sector is the largest potential market for CCS technologies and its potential use of CCS has its own characteristics that need to be better understood. Much work needs to be done to ensure that the potential large and rapid scale-up in CCS deployment will be safe and successful. 14
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