Smart Energy Systems or electrification - Infrastructures and paths to 100% Renewable energy studies from the projects RE-INVEST, Heat Roadmap Europe, the 4DH Centre. Brian Vad Mathiesen; Friday 23 February 2018 Eufores Renewable Energy Workshop; Location: Parliament, Copenhagen, Denmark @BrianVad
Energy System Challenges and opportunities - Lower and lower Renewable Energy investment costs ( especially) - Batteries are falling in price - prices are falling (sign of system design failure) and cannot merit investments in new capacity - Power plants for back-up is closing down (lower operation hours) Questions and strategic decisions - How should we use and balance (energy storage) more electricity from renewable energy? - How should we re-design the energy system and how much renewable energy is needed? (sources: EnergyPLAN cost database)
Photo Voltaics Biomass Wind power 1980 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 Indeks L O W C O N S U M P T I O N L O W C O S T S 40 YEARS OF ENERGY PLANNING AND MARKET DESIGN S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S Primary Energy Supply, PJ 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Danish Potentials 190 170 150 130 110 90 Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport
Energy System Challenges and opportunities - demands the smallest of the demands - Both transport & heating/cooling demands larger - grids are much more expensive than thermal grids/gas grids (pr. capacity) - Energy storages have different costs in different sectors and different scales Questions and strategic decisions - What are the role of the grids in the future - How can energy storage be used across sectors to transform all demands to renewable energy cost-effectively? - How important are energy savings in the future and what is the balance between electricity or heat savings compared to renewable energy? 30-50% Cost of Heat Savings ( /kwh) Cost of Supplying Heat Amount of Savings (TWh) Source: Mapping and analyses of the current and future heating-cooling fuel deployment, DG Energy, 2016
Three focus areas for buildings S T O P B E F O R E P A S S I V E H O U S E S T A N D A R D S
Energy System Challenges and opportunities - Bio-refinery technology is developing rapidly but bioenergy is a limited resource and can have adverse effects outside the energy sector - Transport sector technologies are emerging fast - New technologies may develop - The international energy context is uncertain Questions and strategic decisions - What technologies are key for the transport sector? - What is the role of bioenergy in future energy systems? - What is the future role of the gas systems? - How can key Danish strength help on an international level and what investments are robust in an uncertain future?
Smart Energy Systems Download rapport: www.energyplan.eu/ida
Unit Investment Costs for Energy Storage 1. Thermal Cheaper at All Scales Thermal 125/kWh 1/kWh 300/kWh 90/kWh
Unit Investment Costs for Energy Storage 1. Thermal Cheaper at All Scales Thermal 125/kWh 1/kWh 300/kWh 2. Bigger is Better i.e. Cheaper 90/kWh
Pump Hydro Storage 175 /kwh (Source: Energy Storage Technology Options: A White Paper Primer on Applications, Costs, and Benefits. Electric Power Research Institute, 2010) Thermal Storage 1-4 /kwh (Source: Danish Technology Catalogue, 2012) Oil Tank 0.02 /kwh (Source: Dahl KH, Oil tanking Copenhagen A/S, 2013: Oil Storage Tank. 2013) Natural Gas Underground Storage 0.05 /kwh (Source: Current State Of and Issues Concerning Underground Natural Gas Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 2004)
Price ( /MWh) 0.16 m3 Thermal Storage 300.000 /MWh (Private house: 160 liter for 15000 DKK) Heat energy storage 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 Thermal storage: Price and Size 160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3 6200 m3 Thermal Storage 2500 /MWh (Skagen: 6200 m3 for 5.4 mio. DKK) 4 m3 Thermal Storage 40,000 /MWh (Private outdoor: 4000 m3 for 50,000 DKK) 200,000 m3 Thermal Storage 500 /MWh (Vojens: 200,000 m3 for 30 mio. DKK)
HOW TO USE STORAGES LONG TERM.. Three crucial grids in Smart Energy Systems Smart electricity grids Smart thermal grids Smart gas grids High capacity electrolyses (Power-to-gas) More district heating and district cooling Large heat pumps with high capacity (Power-to-heat) CHP, solar thermal, etc. storage in transport (batteries and electrofuels) Production of green gasses and synthetic fuels W W W. S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S. E U
STATE-OF-THE-ART-KNOWLEDGE ON 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY IN 2050 Savings in Energy Denmand Efficiency improvements in energy production F L E X I B L E T E C H N O L O G I E S I N T E G R A T E D E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S Renewable energy sources (RES)
Heat Roadmap Europe Methodology GIS Mapping (could be another technology, resource, etc) Energy System Modelling (www.energyplan.eu) BAU (References) District Heating Demands District Heating Resources District Heating Alternatives Results (PES, CO2, Costs)
50% of the heat demand in Europe can be supplied with district heating (www.heatroadmap.eu) K E Y R O L E F O R CITIES
Renewable Energy Share in Heating & Cooling (%) Proven Technology! Renewable Energy vs. District Heating 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% District Heating Share (%) Austria Bulgaria Cyprus Denmark Finland Germany Hungary Italy Lithuania Malta Poland Romania Slovenia Sweden Belgium Croatia Czech Republic Estonia France Greece Ireland Latvia Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovak Republic Spain United Kingdom
Today s Heat Demand from Peta 4.2 (www.heatroadmap.eu) London <5% DH Heat Demand Densities 2015 Copenhagen >90% DH Roma <5% DH Bucharest ~75% DH
WP2: Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People) Heat Demand Suitable for DH 10 PJ/Year Excess Heat 35 PJ/Year 10 km
Heat synergies map in PETA4 example: Netherlands Heat demands: 296 PJ/y Excess heat: 560 PJ/y District heating share: 5% Renewable energy in heating: 3% - Not a Technical barrier to improve energy efficiency
Today s Energy System Resources Conversion Demands Combustion Engines Fuel Storage Power Exchange Mobility Fossil Fuel Power Plants Storage Cooling Boilers Heating
Smart Energy System Resources Conversion Demands Bioenergy Fuels Combustion Engines Fuel Storage Wind etc. Fluctuating Electrofuels Power Exchange Mobility Flexible Electric Vehicles Storage Combined Heat & Power Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat
Smart Energy System: Thermal Storage Resources Conversion Demands Bioenergy Fuels Combustion Engines Fuel Storage Mobility Wind etc. Fluctuating Electrofuels Power Exchange Storage Electric Vehicles (Partly) Flexible Combined Heat & Power Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat
Smart Energy System: Battery/Mobility Storage Resources Conversion Demands Bioenergy Fuels Combustion Engines Fuel Storage Mobility Wind etc. Fluctuating Electrofuels Power Exchange Storage Electric Vehicles (Partly) Flexible Combined Heat & Power Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat
Smart Energy System: Fuel Storage Resources Conversion Demands Bioenergy Fuels Combustion Engines Fuel Storage Mobility Wind etc. Fluctuating Electrofuels Power Exchange Storage Electric Vehicles (Partly) Flexible Combined Heat & Power Heat Pump Cooling Thermal Storage Heating Solar etc. Fluctuating Heat
We need two-dimensional approach - technically and in regards to markets
W W W. R E I N V E S T P R O J E C T. E U W W W. S M A R T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S. E U State of Green W W W. E N E R G Y P L A N. E U W W W. 4 D H. D K W W W. H E A T R O A D M A P. E U