APPENDIX: ALASKA'S ECONOMY AND POPULATION,

APPENDIX: ALASKA'S ECONOMY AND POPULATION, 1959-2020 STATEWIDE AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS PREPARED BY Scon GOLDSMITH AND ALEXANDRA HILL PREPARED for AtASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AND PUBLIC FACILITIES March 1997 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA ANCHORAGE 3211 PROVIDENCE DRIVE ANCHORAGE, ALASKA 99508

TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION STRUCTURE OF THE ALASKA ECONOMY ECONOMICS BASIC INDUSTRIES INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT NON RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION INCOME DEMOGRAPHICS POPULATION GROWTH RACE, AGE AND SEX HOUSEHOLDS SETTLEMENT PATTERNS REGIONS SOUTH CENTRAL I INTERIOR SOUTHEAST WESTERN ARCTIC FUTURE GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY THE BASIC INDUSTRIES INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPORT STA TE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND POLITICS WAGES, PERSONAL INCOME, AND PRICES MODEL ASSUMPTIONS MODEL PROJECTIONS MEDIUM CASE HIGH CASE LOW CASE SUMMARY AND TRANSPORTATION IMPLICATIONS I I 5 7 11 13 14 15 15 16 18 18 20 21 22 25 25 26 26 28 28 3I 31 32 34 35 37 38 38 44 48 52 Econo111ic/l)e1nographic Projections ISER, March 97

LIST OF TABLES TABLE I. ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT BY SECTOR (MILLION $)... 2 TABLE 2. ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT BY SECTOR SHARES... 3 TABLE 3. HISTORICAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS... 6 TABLE 4. EMPLOYMENT IN THE LARGEST FEDERAL CIVILIAN AGENCIES, ALASKA, 1995... 10 TABLE 5. SUMMER VISITORS BY SELECTED LOCATION, 1993... 10 TABLE 6. EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA'S TRANSPORTATION SECTOR, 1994... 12 TABLE 7. EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA'S SERVICE SECTOR, 1994... 13 TABLE 8. EMPLOYMENT IN ALASKA'S TRADEAND FINANCE SECTORS, 1994... 14 TABLE 9. NON-RESIDENT WORKERS IN ALASKA (PERCENT)... 15 TABLE 10. ALASKA LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES... 15 TABLE 11. PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)... 16 TABLE I IA. ALASKA PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME SOURCES... 17 TABLE 12. MOBILITY OF ALASKANS:... 19 TABLE 13. ALASKA POPULATION BY RACE... 20 TABLE 14. ALASKA POPULATION BY AGE, RACE AND SEX, 1995... 20 TABLE 15. ALASKA HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION... 21 TABLE 16. ALASKA POPULATION AND GROWTH RATE BY CENSUS AREA... 23 TABLE 17. ALASKA'S MILITARY POPULATION BY LOCATION OF DUTY STATION, 1995... 24 TABLE 18. HISTORICAL DATA BY REGION... 25 TABLE 19. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS - MEDIUM CASE... 39 TABLE 20A. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- MEDIUM CASE... 41 TABLE 20B. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- MEDIUM CASE...42 TABLE 21. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- HIGH CASE... 45 TABLE 22A. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- HIGH CASE... 46 TABLE 22B. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- HIGH CASE, CONT'D... 47 TABLE 23. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- Low CASE...49 TABLE 24A. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- Low CASE...49 TABLE 24B. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS -- LOW CASE... 51 Econo111ic/Dc111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 ll

LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE I. ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT SHARES 1965....4 FIGURE 2. ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT SHARES 1993... 4 FIGURE 3. ALASKA EMPLOYMENT... 5 FIGURE 4. ALASKA TOTAL EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE... 6 FIGURE 5. ALASKA PETROLEUM EMPLOYMENT... 7 FIGURE 6. ALASKA SEAFOOD EMPLOYMENT... 8 FIGURE 7. ALASKA TIMBER EMPLOYMENT... 8 FIGURE 8. ALASKA MINING EMPLOYMENT... 9 FIGURE 9. ALASKA FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT... 9 FIGURE 10 ALASKA CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT... 11 FIGURE 11. ALASKA TRANSPORTATION EMPLOYMENT... 11 FIGURE 12. ALASKA PUBLIC UTILITIES EMPLOYMENT... 12 FIGURE 13. ALASKA SERVICE EMPLOYMENT... 13 FIGURE 14. ALASKA TRADE EMPLOYMENT... 14 FIGURE 15. ALASKA STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT... 14 FIGURE 16.ALASKA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME... 18 FIGURE 17.COMPONENTS OF ALASKA POPULATION CHANGE... 19 FIGURE 18.POPULATION GROWTH RATES BY REGION... 26 FIGURE 19. EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATES BY REGION... 26 FIGURE 20.ALASKA PETROLEUM PRODUCTION... 28 FIGURE 21 STA TE GENERAL FUND REVENUE FORECAST... 32 FIGURE 22. PERMANENT FUND BALANCE... 33 FIGURE 23.COMPARISON OF MAP MODEL PROJECTIONS... 53 Econo111ic/Dc1nographic Projections I SER, March 97 ii

MAJOR ALASKA TRANSPORT REGIONS WESTERN ARCTIC North Slope I~ Northwest Arctic Yukon Koyukuk CANADA SOUTHEAST Yaldez Cordova Skagway-Yakutat-Angoon 1:::\ "' ~. '\ c.. "'- Aleutians West c)yc;;.. v' ""L12 _. A. ~ "" ~ O c~,..,!./ 0 0 Lake and Peninsula SOUTH CENTRAL INTERIOR Prince of Wales /'Vi" Outer Ketchikan Ketchikan Gateway

INTRODUCTION Alaska's transportation system affects the state's economy in many ways. Growth in jobs, productivity, and marketing capabilities all hinge on the transportation system's effectiveness. Efficient, reliable, and flexible transport enables urban and rural businesses to lower overall costs and increase their competitiveness in the global market. In turn, changes in the population's age and location, in employment and production concentrations and trade patterns, all affect the state's future transportation needs. By understanding the structure of Alaska's economy and the population characteristics, present transportation needs can be evaluated and projection of future needs made. We will look at the economy statewide and in three regions (see Map I, opposite). We will discuss: past trends statewide, urban/rural, and by region our general expectations for the future the specific assumptions that make up our Low, Medium and High case projections the model results a summary and discussion of the implications for transportation STRUCTURE OF THE ALASKA ECONOMY The most comprehensive way to summarize Alaska's economy is by using Gross State Product (GSP). GSP is a measure of the economic contribution from each industry within the state based on the value added of that industry. The economic history of Alaska is reflected in both the overall growth of the GSP and the change in the different economic sectors' shares ofgsp (Tables 1 and 2). For purposes of analysis, we group Alaska's industries into four sectors: Basic, Infrastructure, Support and State & Local Government. Basic industries bring money into Alaska by selling goods and services outside the state or to businesses and individuals who are not Alaska residents. Historically, the imp01iant basic industries have been Oil and Gas, Mining, Seafood, Forest Products, and Tourism. Federal government spending in Alaska is also considered a basic industry, bringing money into the state from taxpayers nationwide. Recently, international air cargo operations have been added to the list of basic industries. Industries in the infrastructure sector derive much of their revenue from selling goods and services to other industries, rather than for final consumption (although they do sell to consumers as well). These industries are Construction, Transp01iation, Public Utilities, and Business Services. The support sector of the economy sells primarily to final demand, that is, to Alaska consumers (although these businesses also sell to other industries). The support sector consists of Trade, Finance, Services (excluding business services) and Miscellaneous Manufacturing for the local market (not seafood, wood products or refining, which export their output). Econo111ic/Dc111ographic Projections ISER, March 97

A large number of self employed persons-~ - proprietors -- do not appear in the employment figures for specific industries. We include most of these self employed in the support sector. We do estimate fish harvesting selt~ernployment figures and include those proprietors in the Seafood industry, since virtually the entire work force in fish harvesting is self employed. Although a number of proprietors work during the summer as placer miners (another basic industry), we believe the majority of non seafood harvesting proprietors work in services. We know that a large m1111- ber work in small businesses providing services to tourists. State and local government is ofren included in the support sector; we have treated it separately in this analysis because is has a different role in transportation dernand and supply than the remainder of the support sector. ln addition, its size and dependence on oil revenues set it apart from other support activities. When Alaska became a state in I 959 the economy was dominated by federal military activities. In J 965 the federal governrnent accounted for 26% of gross product. Infrastructure accounted for 24%, a large share of which was in direct support of federal governrnent activities. A further 24% of gross product was contributed by the service sector of the econollly which served the needs of Alaskan households as well as businesses (Tables I and 2) Seafood harvesting and processing was the most important private basic industry, providing 8% of gross product followed by forest product harvesting and processing at 4%, oil and gas production and processing at 3%, and 111ining and tourisrn at 1% each. Miscellaneous manufacturing and agriculture together contributed less than I% to the total. The private economic base was dependent on the harvesting and pri111ary processing of the abundant natural resources of the state, but high production costs and a risky investrnent cli111ate prevented rapid expansion of harvests and of downstrea111 processing Most natural resources were exported after only minimal processing. These industries provided a very tenuous tax base for the new state to begin the process of econolllic developrnent. The development of the state's oil and gas resources, first in the Cook Inlet and later on the North Slope, has been the most irnportant factor contributing to the growth and development of the econorny since statehood. When production of oil on state land began at Prudhoe Bay in I 977, the Alaska's GSP doubled within a two year period; by 1980 oil and gas production, transportation and processing accounted for 65% of gross state product. Much of this value added was paid to the state as taxes and royalties which allowed an expanded role for state and local government in the econo111y. This included both the expansion of traditional programs and the establishment of new progra111s supporting public construction, housing construction, and economic development as well as inco111e translers to individuals. Development of other natural resource industries during the first decades of statehood was eclipsed by the growth of the oil and gas industry. The seafood, mining, and forest products industries were hampered by high costs, lack of inl'ormation about investment opportunities, and jurisdictional disputes with the f'edcral govern111ent. Of these resource industries, only seafood grew significantly in the lirst decades of statehood. Although its contribution to the state's GSP increased by a factor of al111ost ten, it was still overshadowed by oil and gas. Econo1nic/Dc1nogrn ph ic [Jrojccl ions ISl'R. M:1rcl1 97 2

Year: 65 70 75 80 85 90 93 TOTAL $1,178 $2,061 $6,061 $19,633 $26,856 $26,298 $23,667 BASIC $503 $938 $1,626 $14,568 $17,611 $17,380 $13,140 oil and gas $41 $280 $539 $12,710 $15,261 $13,636 $9,248 seafood $92 $11 0 $151 $570 $617 $1,137 $1,030 forest products $43 $61 $162 $187 $108 $430 $360 1111111ng $10 $11 $17 $32 $57 $96 $101 to11ris111 $13 $19 $69 $161 $304 $381 $481 federal govt. $304 $457 $688 $908 $1.264 $1,700 $1,920 JNFRASTRlJCTURE $283 $401 $2,334 $1,648 $2,741 $2,346 $2,786 SUPPORT $292 $510 $1,572 $2,340 $4,551 $4,504 $5,349 trade-services-fl nan cc $288 $500 $1,537 $2,277 $4,503 $4,400 $5,261 n1isccl lancous $4 $10 $35 $63 $48 $104 $88 STATE/LOC. GOVT, $101 $212 $529 $1,079 $1,955 $2,069 $2,393 \. "' ''"'"''~,,..,,~~'~'-'-":':"""'!-" ~ TABLE 2. Al.ASMQROSS,&IATE J>,RQDUCT BY SECTOR SHARES 0 '-''"~"' ',,~ '' "'~''W ~~;;_,,""'''*"""~''~4(;>;""1%~.f''""" ~""-~~~~"",, )'ear: 65 70 75 80 85 90 93 TOTAL I OO'Y.1 100% 100% 100 4 Yc1 100% 100% 100% BASIC 43'X1 47'X1 27 1 X1 75 1 Yc1 66 1 X1 67 1 Yc, 66 1 Yc, oil and gas 3<y;) I 4 1 X1 9(Yr) 65lXi 57 1<) 52(X> 39(X> seafood 8(X).s (x) 2(X) 3(X) 2(X) 4(X) 4(X> forest products 4 (x) 31y;> 3(X> l(x> o(x) 2<x, 2(X> Jll!lllllg l <y;) I 1 X1 O(Yc) o(x) O(Yci ClX> o<x) tourisin I <Xi I (Yc) l(xj I <Yc1 J<X> J<X) 2 1 xi fed era 1 govt. 26(Xi 22(X) I \(Xi s 1 xi )ii'(> 6iX> 8(Yc1 INFRASTRUCTURE 24 1 X, 19'X, 39 1 X1 8 1 Yi1 I 0 1 Yc1 91y;) 12 1 Yi1 SUPPORT 24'y;1 24jy;) 26 1 v;, 12 1 v;1 I 7 1 v;1 1 7 1 Yc1 22cy;, trade-services-finance 24(X) 24 1 /;) 25(Xi l 2cYc> 17(Xi 17 /o 22<y;) n1isccl lancous ()<!() 0 x) 1 1 X1 ocx) o(x) o<x, o(x) STATE/LOC. GOVT, 9'Yi1 I o y;, 9'Yc, 5 1 Yc1 71y;, s Yc, 10 1 Yc1 Eco110111ic/f)cn1ographic Project ions!su<. M:irch 97

FIGURE 1. ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT SHARES 1965 fodern! govt 26o/o forest prod 4 /o 111i11ing I <Yo n1isc 0%, tourisn1 1% trade-services finance 24% FIGURE 2. ALASKA GROSS STATE PRODUCT SHARES 1993 oil and gas 40%, scafood 4%, infrastructure l 2o/o 1nining O(Yo touris1112(yo Econon1ic/l)e111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 4

The role of the federal government in Alaska's economy has gradually declined. It experienced the smallest percentage growth in nominal tenns of any industry. Although some federal agencies in Alaska have expanded, the largest- the military- has contracted. As other industries expanded, the federal share of Alaska's GSP declined from over one fomih to under one tenth of the total. By 1993 the structure of the economy was very different from 1965 (Figures 1 & 2). Oil and gas, with nearly 40%, was the largest contributor to the GSP. At maximum oil production in the late 1980s this figure was over 65%, but has decreased with declining production since then. Trade and services was next in impo1iance with 22% of the total. This sector has gradually matured to meet more of the needs of the State's businesses and households locally, rather than leaving them to buy from outside the state. Because of the growth in oil and gas and the service sector, the shares of gross state product of virtually all other sectors of the economy were smaller in 1993 than in 1965. The natural resource industries excluding oil- seafood, forest products, and mining---- fell from a combined total of 13% of gross state product to 6%. Only tourism increased its share from 1 % to 2%. ECONOMICS Employment growth (Table 3) reflects the same general patterns as gross state product, but differs in details. The average annual jobs growth rate from 1961and1990 was a healthy 3.9%. The support sector grew fastest; non-business services, trade and finance industries benefited from growth in household incomes as well as increases in basic sector activity and government spending. State and local government was stimulated not only by the enormous influx of petrolemn revenues but also by the growth in population. The infrastructure sector grew at the same strong rate as the overall economy due to the needs of the developing basic industries and the growing population. The basic industries as a group were the slowest growing sector with a 1.5% annual growth rate but there was substantial variation across industries. Among basic industries, oil and gas was the fastest growing followed by tourism. (Oil and Gas contributes much more to GSP than to employment because it is a capital intensive industry.) Agriculture increased rapidly but has remained quite small. (Most of the output of that industry is instate consumption rather than export so it is not actually a basic industry in the usual sense of the term). The different growth rates of employment in the various sectors of the economy are reflected in a - ------------- -- ----------- --------- change in the composition ofem- FIGURE 3. ALASKA EMPLOYMENT ployment over time. Figure 3. THOUSANDS 350. i. i i 300.~... "i... +... +...!... ~~~ =l:.:::::::::::::::::j::::.:::::::.:::::::::i: :::,;;;jjii... ii111... 100 shows the declining relative importance of basic sector employment over time and the growing importance of support employment. () 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 cl3asjc OSUPPORT l -------- V/. lnfrastructurf STATE/ LOCAL GOVT 1995 Econon1ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 5

TABLE 3. HISTORICAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC STATISTICS Alaska Statewide Summary Statistics Growth Rate 1961 1970 1980 1990 '61-'90 Population (000) 236,700 300,382 401,851 550,043 3.0% Households (000) Real Personal Income (millions of 1995 $) $2,470 Wage & Salary Employment (000) 56.9 Total Employment (000) 94.32 79,739 $4,901 92.5 133.42 131,463 188,915 $8,696 $13,218 6.0% 170.0 236.2 5.1% 211.35 285.57 3.9% Statewide Employment by Sector 1961 Total 94.32 Basic 59.23 Infrastructure 11.57 Support 15.. 32 State I Local Govt. 8.2 Employment Shares Total 100% Basic 63% Infrastructure 12% Support 16% State I Local Govt. 9% 1970 133.42 64.45 17.69 32.84 18.44 100% 48% 13'Yo 25% 14% 1980 1990 211.35 285.57 3.9% 73.60 90.94 1.5% 30.06 34.37 3.8% 71.40 109.25 7.0% 36.29 51.00 6.5% 100% 100% 35% 32% 14% 12% 34o;., 39% 17% 18% FIGURE 4. ALASKA TOT AL EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1 S<X).j... j... j... J...,... j... J i i... l... i... 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Because of the dependence of the economy on natural resource production and processing, growth since statehood has been punctuated by a number of cycles of rapid growth followed by periods of consolidation. Figure 4 shows this pattern for employment. The most obvious cycles have been associated with the earthquake and Fairbanks flood in the mid 1960's, the construction of the trans Alaska oil pipeline in the mid 1970's, the second oil crisis Econon1ic/I)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 6

in the early 1980's, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill in the late l 980's. Although this cyclic nature appears to be moderating, the continued dominance of natural resource industries in the economy suggests that future employment growth will continue to exhibit moderate cycles. BASIC INDUSTRIES OIL Employment within the oil industry itself is less than 10 thousand (Figure 5) but exploration and development activities create large numbers of jobs in construction, transportation, and wholesaling. Local business services also provide support to the industry. Additional jobs are created in pipeline transportation as well as in refining and manufacturing. These are all among the highest paid jobs in the economy. Employment is con- FIGURE 5. ALASKA PETROLEUM EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS 12 -, - ---,-----------------! i '... 1.! 10 r - r, += J 1 :! l :t:: : :::1 :: :... ~: r::...,... 1... :~t+~~ 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: AK DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND!Sl:!H centrated in the Southcentral I Interior Region of the state, particularly on the North Slope and in Anchorage which serves as the headquarters for most of the companies involved in the industry and the staging area for an increasing share of the developments on the North Slope. North Slope workers virtually all commute to work on a weekly or biweekly basis. Most live in the greater Anchorage area. Oil and gas were first produced in Alaska in the Cook Inlet and gas production remains an important industry there, but the primary focus of the petroleum industry in the state is now on the North Slope. Virtually all current oil production occurs on North Slope leases and exploration and development are located there. The Trans Alaska Pipeline transports oil from the North Slope to Valdez. Refineries in Fairbanks, Valdez and on the Kenai Peninsula convert a small percentage of this oil into products for consumption within the state, but the vast majority of the oil is sent to the lower 48 and Pacific Rim markets for refining. Gas production on the North Slope currently powers field production facilities, provides fuel for the oil pipeline, and increases oil production through re-injection into the oil wells. If transportation costs (from the North Slope to Asia) can be reduced enough to make Alaskan gas competitive with other sources in the Pacific Rim market, then the future could see gas sales to that market. The bulk of Cook Inlet gas production supplies a liquid natural gas (LNG) facility and an Ammonia-Urea plant, both located on the Kenai Peninsula, as well as the south central Alaska electric and gas utilities. Econo111ic/l)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 7

SEAFOOD The seafood industry has gone through a long period of expansion (Figure 6), driven by the increase in the salmon harvest and the development of the bottom fish industry made possible by the passage of the Magnuson Act. This industry is centered in the coastal communities of all three Regions of the state with the largest concentrations in Dutch Harbor, Kodiak, Homer, Sitka, Petersburg, and Ketchikan. FIGURE 6. ALASKA SEAFOOD EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND JSER H SEAFOOD PROCESSING<> SEAFOOD HARVESTING Much of the catch in Alaskan waters is taken by non-residents who fish in Alaskan and federal waters. In addition a significant share of the workers in the processing facilities are nonresidents who come to Alaska to work during the fishing season and then leave the state. Furthermore many Alaskan fishennen do not live in the communities where they fish because it is a seasonal occupation. For example many live in Anchorage and move to the fishing areas during the summer months. The seasonality of the industry is also reflected in summer employment numbers that are several times higher than the annual average number employed. FOREST PRODUCTS. Employment in the forest products industry has been declining since 1990 (Figure 7). The industry has been centered in Southeast Alaska in the Tongass National Forest. Long tenn contracts with the Forest Service kept two pulp mills and several sawmills supplied since the 1950s. However, the economics of pulp and raw lumber production have not proved attractive in recent years. The Sitka pulp mill closed down in 1994, and the Ketchikan FIGURE 7. ALASKA TIMBER EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 SOURCE: ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND ISER fitimber HARVESTING<> PULP MANUFACTURE mill is scheduled to close in March 1997. This has in turn affected major sawmills in the region. These sawmills were economically viable only because of inexpensive saw logs from the Tongass; in turn, the saw logs were relatively inexpensive because they were harvested along with pulp logs under long tenn contracts with the Forest Service. So, pulp mill closures have led to closures of the region's largest sawmills. Export of raw logs from private lands in southeast and southcentral Alaska (primarily Native owned) is profitable, but that production peaked in the late eighties; the size of the industry is constrained by resource availability. There is also a small industry in Southcenlral/Interior sending timber from private, state and federal lands to small processing facilities. The facilities produce primarily raw lumber. MINING 1995 Econon1ic/I)e111ographic Projections!SER, March 97 8

Historically much of the mining activity in Alaska has been by individuals-- proprietors- who aren't included in the employment figures for the industry. Figure 8 numbers include only employees oflarge corporate mining firms. Proprietors are mostly gold placer miners who work their claims on a seasonal basis and may have another job in the off season. Before statehood, there were several large mining operations, including the Kennicott mine in the Wrangell Mountains, the A-J mine near Juneau, and Independence Mine north of Anchorage. For much of the time since, the only major operating mine was the coal mine at Healy. The Red Dog mine near Kotzebue and the Greens Creek mine near Juneau opened in the late 1980s, and a number of gold mines are under development in Southeast and Southcentral /Interior Alaska. Many of these mines, like Berner's Bay north of Juneau or the Red Dog mine are in remote locations with no direct access to infrastructure. This makes them expensive to develop and vulnerable to world price fluctuations. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FIGURE 8. ALASKA MINING EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LAJ30RAND ISER.--------------------------. Figure 9 shows the federal gov FIGURE 9. ALASKA FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT ernment employment in Alaska. ANNUAL AVERAGE ln THOUSANDS Historically federal employment has been an important stabilizing force for the Alaska economy when the private sector was dominated by volatile fishing, timber, and mining activity. The number of active duty military Alaska has slowly been declining since the 60s. This trend was briefly reversed in the late 1980s when a B- CJVJLIAN ACTIVE DUTY MJL ~---------------------~new light infantry brigade was stationed in Alaska, but since then the base closure act has resulted in closing important bases at Adak, King Salmon, and Galena. Fort Greely in the Alaska interior will close soon. Force reductions have occurred at Fort Richardson in Anchorage and Fort Wainwright in Fairbanks. Econo111ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 9

TOURISM Table 4. Employment in the Largest Federal Civilian Agencies, Alaska, 1995 Agency Department of Interior US Postal Service Department of Transportation Department of Agriculture Department of Health/ Human Services Department of Commerce Veterans Administration Treasury Department Department of Justice US Courts Source: Alaska Departn1cnt of Labor The tourism industry has been one of the fastest growing and dynamic basic industries in the state for a number of years. Although it is difficult to monitor activity in this industry because the growth has been so rapid, the importance of tourist visitors appears to be increasing at between 5 % and 7% annually. Table 5 shows that tourism is a statewide industry. Locations not accessible by cruise ship or road receive fewer visitors, but visitors are reaching out to all regions of the state. In 1993, Nome had 23,000 visitors and even the Pribiloflslands had 3,300. Employment 2,637 2,139 1,659 1,283 1,122 452 337 313 160 115 Federal civilian employment shows a slight increasing trend, with reductions only in the last few years. It will continue to be an important source of economic diversification away from natural resources related activities in the future. Table 4 shows the largest civilian agency federal employers in 1995. Table 5. Summer Visitors by Selected Location, 1993 Community Total Summer Percent of all Visitors visitors (thousands) Anchorage 543.6 65 % Juneau 408.7 49 % Ketchikan 386.9 47% Skagway 318.9 38 % Denali 301.2 36% Glacier Bay 263.6 32% Fairbanks 257.0 31 'Yo Seward 248.1 30% Sitka 234.2 28% Palmer 169.0 20% Kenai 159.8 19 % Wasilla 153.4 18 % Tok 144.5 17 % Homer 134.6 16% Prince Wm Sound 129.7 16 % Soldotna 129.4 16% Valdez 124.3 15 % Haines 114.3 14 % Source: Alaska Departn1ent of Econon1ic Devclop111cnt, Alaska Visitor Statistics Prograin, Alaska Visitor Paucn1s, Opinions, and Planning, Smnmcr 1993 Econo111ic/De1nographic Projections!SER, March 97 10

INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION The level of construction activity in Alaska depends upon the amount of new investment in the development of the basic industries in the state, particularly petroleum and mining, upon government spending at all levels, and upon the general health and growth rate of the economy. Since all of these may be volatile from year to year the number of construction jobs fluctuates more from year to year FIGURE 10. ALASKA CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMEN ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS! ' 30 - l i!.'.~ 20 r ti. I..... 1..... I...,...,1... 1... l! 1 I. 1 1 10...;... 1... 1... [... :... ~::.'.f......!oo~ ; i '. i I O i_1111!1111!1111!1111l..ll_1._.i_j.j i _LJ; 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 SOU!~CE: AK DEPT or LABOR AND ISER than any other industry in the economy (Figure 10). In general the construction industry has been more important in Alaska than in other regional economies because of the amount of effort devoted to the development of the state's infrastructure and because of the rapid historical growth in employment and population. Construction jobs are some of the highest paying in the state, partly because many of them are located in remote areas such as on the North Slope or at remote mine sites or military installations. Workers typically live in the urban areas of the state and commute to these jobs on a weekly or seasonal basis. 1995 TRANSPORTATION. The level of activity in transportation is related to the development and production of the natural resources of the state, tourism, construction, the size of the economy, and most recently, the international cargo transshipment activity at the international airports in Anchorage and Fairbanks. Figure 11 shows how transportation employment has grown since statehood, and Table 6 shows the employment composition of the transportation industry in 1994: FIGURE 11. ALASKA TRANSPORTATION EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS 20 ; 1 i : : : l :!!! j i ibe8dj 15 T... 1 1 : :::::::y::~i~:~ t- ':-;:+t'r~-1- ~+-:-l Q _J_.. L -1...j_ i LJ... ~~~ 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: AK DEPT OF LABOR AND ISER Econo111ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 11

Table 6. Employment in Alaska's Transportation Sector, 1994 Category Scheduled Air Transport Other Air Transport Related Trucking and Warehousing Water Transportation Local and Interurban Passenger Service Transportation Services--Passenger and Freight Railroads Pipelines (including Alyeska Pipeline) Average Annual Employment 5120 2450 2968 1943 1615 1590 400 (approx.) 1053 (approx.) PUBLIC UTILITIES. Employment in public utilities and communications is a small part of the total infrastructure sector of the economy. It is relatively slow growing because of the economies of scale in the provision of electricity, telecommunications, and other goods and services that is the output of this industry. Employment grew faster in the seventies than before or after that decade because of the expansion of utilities to new parts of the state and because more utilities were provided by a local rather than out of state work force (Figure 12). The one-year increase in 1989 reflects temporary employment to clean up the Exxon Valdez oil spill. FIGURE 12. ALASKA PUBLIC UTILITIES EMPLOYMENT 8 i 1 1 ANNUAL A VERA GE ln THOUSANDS. 1. i i i ~i \... -. 6 -! '""'"'''"'l'7~~""lji886~ 4 ~.. f... 1--...,?B~.j... j... 1...\ i Gl3t9E!'i'BsEJE!li! i i i i i 2 ~...\... r...... l... r... r... l... r -... l... Q ~1-.l._l LJ_j...J l = i ' 'l 'I l' 'I' I' L...L.L.J, ;.. L~. 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: AK DEPT OF LABOR AND ISER!NCLUD!NG COMMUNICATIONS BUSINESS SERVICES Business services is a small but important component of the total service industry (Figure 13). It consists of the non-financial services provided to business such as advertising, personnel supply, building maintenance, computer services, and reproduction. Because these services are provided primarily to other businesses, rather than consumers, we analyze them as part of the infrastructure rather than support sector. Business services tend to be centered in the larger urban areas (particularly Anchorage), where costs of doing business are minimized and firms can take advantage of economies of scale. Services can be delivered to outlying clients from a centralized location. This has been one of the most rapidly growing parts of the economy due to several Econon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 12

factors. Not only has this sector grown in response to growth in the overall economy and the trend among many firms to outsource activities, but it has also expanded to provide services locally that were previously available only from outside of Alaska in larger urban centers like Seattle. FIGURE 13. ALASKA SERVICES EMPLOYMENT /\NNUAL AVERAGE IN TI-IOUSANDS 60-1 --~,! -- ~!---~i---i --~! --! ). i ' ; ' ; I ' <> <><> 'f :: :t... ::::"" :::.t. : :.. :..I :... :""J~::;,t;,~~:~t..=~-::1::::::.::::"t:.:::. 0!.!. <><>4 <><><><> d.t;iljlljltjl+l)l!jli]ht+!jlljlw!ejll!ljlllil 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: AK DEPT OF LABOR AND ISER SUPPORT NON 8USINESS SERVICES INCLUDING TOURIST RELATED JOBS -a BUSINESS <> NON-BUSINESS Services primarily directed toward households as well as services directed to both households and businesses have been among the fastest growing segments of the economy (Figure 13). Most of these services are relatively immune to the fluctuations associated with the business cycle. Several factors account for this rapid growth. Two major factors are the growth in the number of households and the increase in real household income. Third is the growing stability of the population, which reduces the risk for business investment generally in Alaska. Fourth is the extremely rapid growth of medical services, where the government pays on behalf of poorer households for many services those households would not otherwise buy. These reasons are true in the U.S. as a whole, and growth of the service industry in Alaska has mirrored growth nationwide. Service jobs tend to be lower paying than average; many are seasonal or part time as well. Table 7 shows detailed service employment in 1994. TRADE AND FINANCE Growth in trade employment has been steady (Figure 14) and has benefited from most of the same factors contributing to the rapid growth of the service sector of the economy. Also like services, trade and finance activities tend to be concentrated in the urban centers of the state where costs are low and where the markets are the largest. Category Table 7. Employment in Alaska's Service Sector, 1994 Total Health Services Membership Organizations Engineering And Management Social Services Hotels and Lodging Places Amusement and Recreation Auto Service Related Personal Svcs (Laundry, Beauty, Etc.) Legal Services Educational Services Motion Pictures Misc. Repair Museums Average Monthly Employment 49,349 12,829 6,779 6,603 5,866 5,843 2,981 1,978 1,861 1,830 1,054 889 752 84 Although there has been some expansion of trade into the smaller communities as a result of the increase in disposable income in rural areas, urban areas such as Anchorage continue to dominate Econon1ic/Dcn1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 13

trade sales in Alaska. Table 8 shows the composition of trade and finance employment breakdown for 1994. MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING Less than 20% of the manufacturing employment in Alaska is in the "Miscellaneous" category; the rest is associated with basic industries - seafood, timber, and oil processing. Manufacturing for the local market or for export to other markets is constrained by the small size of the Alaska market, the high cost of business in Alaska relative to other loca- tions, and the distance from large markets. The largest manufacturing sectors serving the Alaska market are printing and publishing (both newspapers and commercial printing), bakeries, concrete products, sawmills and boat building and repair. Altogether these activities employ about 3 thousand on an annual average basis, and of these publishing accounts for about 50% of the total. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT Both state and local government grew rapidly from statehood through the mid 80s, fueled by massive growth in state revenues (Figure 15). Per capita state revenues peaked in 1982 and declined sharply through the rest of the 80s. Since the mid 1980s fiscal restraint has reduced the growth rate of state employment to near zero. Local government employment has been closely correlated with population growth as well as the availability of state and federal revenues in the past. Continued population growth has Category FIGURE 14. ALASKA TRADE EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS :: -l- -.. L... L.. L... J - J - _JqQ<>:?..t.. ' ' i i "~"<><>" ~ i ::~~a~m 0 _J...LLL-.W--W----W~ 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: AK DEPT OF LABOR AND ISER INCLUDES TOURIST RELATED G Wl-!OLESALE <> RETA!L Table 8. Employment in Alaska's Trade and Finance Sectors, 1994 Total Eating and Drinking Places General Merchandise (Department Stores) Food Stores Miscellaneous Retail Auto Dealers and Service Stations Banks and Other Depository Institutions Real Estate Operators, Agents, Etc. Holding and Investment Building Materials Insurance Agents, Brokers, and CaJTiers Apparel and Accessory Stores Furniture Stores Other Financial >- z w 35 "' t; 30 ~ 25 "- "' w 20 "' > 15 10 ~ "" "" :::> 5 z 0 «Average Annual Employment 55,159 14,659 7,338 7,160 6,050 4,567 4,264 2,213 1,802 1,693 1,794 1,488 1,417 714 FIGURE 15. ALASKA STATE I LOCAL GOVT EMPLOYMENT ANNUAL AVERAGE IN THOUSANDS! f 1 i i i (), :: ::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::::::::::::: ::::::::.:.::::::: ::::::::::::::::J.. ::::~:~:~+~~~~ t.~~:~:~::r::::....<> ' <> ' Iil8B88D ~~TT l f!ll 'o<>o.<y i...!...!...!... ~... :;@@~<>! i m '''' m i L 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 SOURCE: AK DEPT OF LABOR AND ISER -a-state <> LOCAL Econo111ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 14

driven continuing, but decelerating, local employment growth for the last decade. NON RESIDENT EMPLOYMENT The share of jobs and income paid to non-resident workers has held fairly constant over time based on residence adjustment data from the US Department of Commerce and information from the Alaska Department of Labor. TABLE 9. NON-RESIDENT WORKERS IN ALASKA About 8 percent of wage income is (PERCENT) reported to leave Alaska as a residence 1984 1994 adjustment each year. The Food Processing 65.0% 76.0% Alaska Department of Labor estimates a larger amount but their Eating/Drinking 30.0% 29.4% Heavy Construction 32.0% 23.1% definition of non-resident includes Special Trades Construction 28.0% 25.7% in migrants who have not lived in Alaska long enough to qualify for Building Construction 28.0% 22.1% the Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend. Table 9 shows the industries Oil And Gas 24.0% 26.8% Hotels 26.0% 33.7%, with the highest percentages of Business Services 30.0% 27.0% non-resident workers. Seafood Wood Products 33.0%i 45.7% (food processing), timber, tourism Air Transportation 19.0% 21.0% and construction draw many seasonal Water Transportation 30.0% 31.8% workers. Oil and Gas, with Source: Alaska Department of Labor remote works sites and week on/week off schedules enables non-residents to commute from a great distance. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION Table 10 shows the labor force participation rate in Alaska from 1960 through 1990. This the ratio of those ages 16 to 64 who are working or looking for work to the total in that age group. Alaska's rate is among the highest of any state both for men and for women. In 1994 the labor force participation rate for Alaska men was 81.2% and for women it was 67.5% The comparable figures for the US were TABLE 10. ALASKA LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATES MEN Civilian White Non-white Black Native Asian I Pacific Islander WOMEN Civilian White Non-white Black Native Asian I Pacific Islander 1960 76.8% 50.2% 39.4% 26.0% 1970 1980 1990 78.8% 78.5% 79.9% 85.5% 83.5% 87.5% 80.7%, 81.2% 82.4% 50.6% 54.2%, 69.4'% 84.2'Yc, 84.7% 45.7% 58.9% 65.9% 48.5%, 61.6% 68.2% 56.9% 71.3% 70.7% 31.0% 42.8%, 51.4% 62.4% 71.3% Econon1ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 15

75. l % and 58.8%. In general, the trend has been for high participation rate groups to stay high, and for groups with lower participation rates to increase their rate. Women of all races increased participation by I 0 to 20 percentage points between 1970 and 1990, reflecting trends nationwide. Native labor force participation jumped after 1980, from 54% to 69% for men, and from 43% to 51 % for women. This may reflect increased rural job opportunities, increased efforts by native corporations to employ their shareholders, improvements in education and training of the native population, or a combination of these factors. INCOME Per capita personal income in Alaska has historically been higher than the national average. Increasing employment had been reflected in growth in personal income shown in Table 3, but there has also been a ehange in income composition over time (Table 11 ). Almost 90 percent of income derived from labor in 1961. By 1990 the labor share had fallen to 75 percent due to the growth in dividends I interest /rent income, transfers, and the Permanent Fund Dividend. This diversification of the sources of income has had a stabilizing influence on the economy and is one of the factors contributing to the moderation of boom-bust cyeles and to the growth in the support sector of the economy. The real average annual civilian wage (adjusted for inflation) grew rapidly in the 1960s, at a slower rate in the 1970s and fell during the 1980s. The increasing trend was fueled by several factors. Jobs added in the seventies and early eighties were heavily weighted towards high wage professional and technical oeeupations. Extremely rapid job growth meant that employers had to raise wages to attract workers to the state. And wages had to be high enough to compensate for Alaska's higher Basic wages Non-basic wages Other labor income Total labor Total labor share Dividends I interest I rent Transfer payments Permanent fund dividend Total non-labor TABLE 11. PERSONAL INCOME (Millions of Dollars) 1961 332 156 77 566 89.8 1.. 33 31 0 62 1970 676 443 443 1,289 86.7% 108 89 0 197 1980 2,287 1,4303 770 4,487 83.1% 438 478 0 916 1990 3,780 2,812 1,729 8,321 73.8% 1,261 1,211 474 2,946 cost of Jiving. Starting in the Total non-labor share 10.2'Y.1 13.3'\/o 17.0% 26.1 % mid eighties, though, there was a shift in employment toward lower wage industries and downward pressure on wage rates from slower growth in employment opportunities. This was partly a reflection of the state recession in mid decade, partly due to structural change in the Alaska economy, and partly the result of changes occurring in the national economy. Also, the cost of living differential between Alaska and the U.S. has been steadily decreasing for several decades. Even so, Alaska had the 5th highest average annual pay of any state in 1995. The distribution and composition of income varies across regions of Alaska. In 1994, per capita income ranged from $31,950 in the Bristol Bay Borough to only $10,633 in Wade Hampton (Table 1 la). The share of total income provided by wages earned in the region ranged from 35 per- Econon1ic/l)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 16

cent in the Yukon-Koyukuk and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough to 76 percent in Aleutians West (where federal employment in Adak made up a large share of total income). TABLE 11A. ALASKA PER CAPITA PERSONAL INCOME SOURCES, 1994 Per Capita Wages Residence Residence Wages net Dividends 'I'ransfers lncon1e Adjustment Adjustment Residence Interest Out In Adjust- Rent 1nent STATE $23,437 $15,176 ($1,242) $0 $13,934 $2,491 $3,937 Anchorage $27,026 $17,840 ($955) $0 $16,885 $2,856 $3,979 Matanuska- Susitna Borough $16,715 $5,787 $0 $3,555 $5,787 $1,909 $3,252 Kenai Peninsula Borough $23,081 $10,888 $0 $1,331 $10,888 $2,636 $3,917 Kodiak Island Borough $20,715 $12,906 ($2,154) $0 $10,752 $2,108 $3,077 Valdez Cordova $26,689 $16,241 ($1,990) $0 $14,251 $2,983 $4,347 Fairbanks North Star Borough $19,318 $12,910 ($1,517) $0 $11,392 $2,259 $3,615 Southeast Fairbanks $18,385 $10,316 ($387) $0 $9,929 $1,367 $5,361 Yukon-Koyukuk $16,128 $8,909 ($3,193) $0 $5,716 $1,476 $6,271 Denali $22,280 $17,943 ($7,867) $0 $10,076 $2,098 $6,574 Non1c $16,573 $10,331 ($584) $0 $9,748 $791 $4,691 North Slope Borough $26,270 $72,339 ($54,985) $0 $17,354 $995 $4,499 Northwest Arctic Borough $17,544 $12,887 ($3,328) $0 $9,559 $1,055 $5,391 IIaines Borough $26,226 $10,310 $0 $2,440 $10,310 $4,060 $4,494 Juneau Borough $27,278 $17,757 ($625) $0 $17,132 $3,888 $3,672 Ketchikan Gateway Borough $29,148 $17,873 ($1,221) $0 $16,652 $3,569 $3,989 Prince of Wales $16,517 $9,203 $0 $481 $9,203 $1,424 $3,786 Sitka Borough $23,631 $13,042 ($928) $0 $12,114 $3,467 $4,057 Skagway-Hoonah-Angoon $22,455 $11,403 $0 $801 $11,403 $2,347 $4,759 Yakutat Borough $23,937 $15,207 ($2,063) $0 $13,144 $2,211 $5,275 Wrangell Petersburg $25,034 $11,886 $0 $18 $11,886 $3,494 $3,800 Aleutians East $21,561 $16,980 ($2,194) $0 $14,786 $1, 154 $2,615 Aleutians West $23,115 $26,973 ($9,309) $0 $17,665 $741 $2,790 Bethel $15,379 $8,981 ($138) $0 $8,843 $532 $4,978 Bristol Bay Borough $31,950 $27,745 ($7,721) $0 $20,024 $1,439 $4,391 Dillingham $22,323 $13,354 ($1,110) $0 $12,244 $1,232 $4,330 Lake and Peninsula Borough $18,803 $7,369 $0 $220 $7,369 $853 $4,371 Wade Hampton $10,633 $4,509 ($407) $0 $4, 102 $281 $4,898 Econo111ic/I)cn1ographic Projections!SER, March 97 17

In most areas of Alaska and statewide, there is a net outflow of wages as workers who don't reside in au area take their wages to their home areas. Oilfield workers especially live in urban areas or outside the state and commute to remote locations on the North Slope. And many residents of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough work in Anchorage. These factors account for net inflows of wages to the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Boroughs. There are also new inflows to Haines Borough, Prince of Wales and Skagway-Yakutat-Angoon in the Southeast region and the Lake and Peninsula Borough in the Western Arctic Region. Median household income in Alaska ranks highest in the nation at 41 % above the national average in 1995. At the same time the poverty rate in Alaska is the second lowest in the nation. These numbers aren't adjusted for the cost of living differential. The high level of median household income is due primarily to the large average household size. This skews the income distribution compared to other states and gives the appearance that Alaskan households are relatively well off. FIGURE 16. ALASKA REAL PER CAPITA INCOME PERCENT ABOVE OR BELOW U.S. AVERAGE ~ ~ 30% ~--~--~--~--~--~--~---. w 6 20% r..,....;...,... ±~...,...,...,... I ro <( * 10% r..,...,...,... ff... w,...,... ~,...,...,..., (j) -10% :j ;,: 0 ~ w ro -20% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 I ADJUSTED FOR ALASKA COST OF LIVING DI FFERENTIALj If we look at per capita income, and adjust for Alaska's higher cost of living, the picture changes. Adjusted per capita income has generally been below the national average except during and after the boom created by the construction of the trans Alaska oil pipeline and the boom associated with the second oil crisis (Figure 16). DEMOGRAPHICS POPULATION GROWTH From 1961 to 1990, Alaska's population more than doubled. This increase is faster than the that of the US as a whole, and both components of population change-natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (in-migrants minus out-migrants)--have contributed. Figure 17 shows how they have combined to produce the total population increase each year. Alaska has among the higher birth rates in the US, both because Alaska's women have higher fertility rates than the national average, and because the state's population is young, with a greater than average share of the population in their childbearing years (ages 15 to 45). Natural increase produces a fairly steady population growth rate; in Alaska, it is migration that drives population growth. On average, about 10% of the Alaska population turns over through migration each year, one of the highest rates of gross migration in the US. This is partly due to the large military presence, but also the result of the young population (more likely to move to follow economic opportunity), and of periods of rapid growth in the state's economy. The overall growth of the economy I~cono1nic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 18

~ ---- -------~ -- --------------- - Figure 17. Components of Alaska Population Change 30000. 20000. 10000. Annual Population Change"" Natural Increase plus or n1inus Net Migration Annual Populatim Change Net In Migration since statehood has meant that, on average, in-migrants have exceeded outmigrants. Net migration has tended to be quite volatile and to follow the fluctuations of employment opportunities in the state. Figure 1 7 Naturallnerease 0 --F~-+-1---1--+---J---l~1- --f-- l + M 00 ' n 00 ' 1. +-1-t- Net Out Migration shows the inflows and outflows associated with the period of construction of the trans Alaska pipeline (mid-70s, out-migration in '78 and '79) and the second oil crisis (boom in early '80s, out-migration in late 80s). The population is becoming more stable, as evidenced by comparing the 1960, 1970, and 1980 decennial census infonnation on the residence of Alaskans 5 years prior to the census year (Table 12). In 1960 only slightly more than half of Alaska residents had been living in the state five years earlier. By 1990 the percentage had grown to more than 75%. The population becomes more stable as it ages, as the militaiy declines in relative importance as an employer, and as cycles in the economy moderate. TABLE 12. MOBILITY OF ALASKANS: Residence During Census Compared to Residence 5 Years Previous 1960 1970 1980 1990 Total Persons age 5+ 181,955 268,289 362,846 494,966 Persons Living in: Same house 41,451 72,189 117,810 202,126 Alaska 96, 146 133,645 250, 135 380,797 Outside Alaska 85,809 134,644 112,711 114,169 Share of Persons in: Sarne house 23% 27% 32% 41% Alaska 53% 50% 69% 77% Outside Alaska 47% 50% 31% 23% Econo111ic/l)c111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 19

RACE, AGE AND SEX The population has shifted steadily towards a smaller prop01tion of Alaska Natives and larger shares of whites and other races. This shift is primarily driven by migration, which has accounted for about 30% of Alaska's new residents since 1961, and which brings people of many races, but only rarely Alaska Natives, to the state. Since 1950, the Native share of the population has declined from over one-quarter to less than one-sixth; whites have increased from 72 percent to 76 percent, and other races have increased their share almost sixfold from 1.5 percent to almost 9 percent (Table 13). TABLE 13. ALASKA POPULATION BY RACE 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 Growth Rate Total 128,643 226,167 300,382 401,352 550,043 615,900 3.5% 100 /,, 100% 1 OO'Yo 100% 100% 100% White 92,808 174,546 237,798 309,728 415,492 466,113 3.7% 72.1% 77.2% 79.2% 77.2% 75.5% 75.7% Native 33,863 42,522 50,819 64, 103 85,698 97,004 2.4% 26.3% 18.8% 16.9% 16.0% 15.6% 15.7% Other Races 1,972 9,099 11,765 27,521 48,853 52,783 7.6% 1.5% 4.0% 3.9%. 6.9% 8.9% 8.6%, There are more males in the population than females (Table 14), again due primarily to selective in-migration of more males than females (especially of those in the military), but this difference is smaller than in the past, and continues to decline. TABLE 14. ALASKA POPULATION BY AGE, RACE AND SEX, 1995 A 11 Races Native Age Male Female Total Share Male Female Total Share Total 320,390 295,510 615,900 100% 48,535 48,469 97,004 100% 1-4 28,239 27,310 55,549 9.0% 6,520 6,446 12,966 13.4% 5-18 72,457 68,021 140,488 22.8% 14,805 14,370 29,175 30.1% 15-64 224,056 200,864 424,920 69.0% 28,436 28,261 56,697 58.4% 65+ 13,258 14,838 28,096 4.6% 2,144 2,631 4,775 4.9% 85+ 614 1, 136 1,750 0.3% 153 247 400 0.4% The median age of the Alaska population has historically been much younger than that of the US population. Harsh conditions result in many older Alaskans leaving the state, and in 1995 less than 5% of the Alaska population was 65 years or more, compared to 13 % for the US as a whole. In migrants, however, tend to be young people coming to Alaska to take advantage of Econon1ic/l)e1nographic Projections ISER, March 97 20

economic opportunity or transferred here for a few years by the military. The 15 to 64 year old age group (which includes the prime working age cohorts) holds 69% of the Alaska population compared to 65% for the U.S. However, this profile is changing. Residents over 65 are now Alaska's fastest growing cohort in the population and the military presence is declining, shifting the population composition towards the national average. There is a significant difference in the age distribution between Alaska natives and other races. A larger share of the native population is both younger and older than the non-native population (Table 14).The Alaska native population does not migrate in or out of the state in large numbers, and the proportion over 65 is slightly higher ( 4.9 percent vs. 4.6 percent) than for the state as a whole. Also, the Native population has a high fertility rate, and 43.5 percent of natives are under 18 years old, compared with 32 percent for the state as a whole. HOUSEHOLDS TABLE 15. ALASKA HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION Alaska 1970 1980 1990 1994 1994 TOTALHH 79,739 131,463 188,915 214,744 97,107,000 Mean Household Size 2.93 2.8 2.67 FAMILYHH 83.6% 72.7% 70.3% 69.8% 70.5% Married Couples 75.7% 61.1% 56.2% 55.0% 54.7'% with children 51.2% 38.5% 34.3% 33.3% 25.6% no children 24.5% 22.6% 21.9% 21.7% 29.1% Other 7.9% 11.6% 14.2% 14.7% 15.8% female head children 3.9% 6.1% 7.7% 8.1 'Yo 7.8% no children 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 4.7% male head children 1.8% 2.1% 3.0% 3.2% 1.5% no children 1.0%, 1.7%, l.5'x, 1.5% 1.8% Share of Family Households: with children 68.1% 64.2% 64.0% 63.9% 49.5% without children 31.9% 35.8% 36.0% 36.1% 50.5% NON-FAMILY 16.4% 27.3% 29.7% 30.2% 29.5% Persons Living Alone 13.2% 20.1% 22.1% 22.6% 24.3% 2 or More Persons 2.8% 7.2% 7.5% 7.6% 5.2<Yo(X> us Econo1nic/J)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 21

The composition of households has been changing rapidly in Alaska, as in the rest of the US (Table 15). Family households-a householder and one or more persons related by birth or marriage- are giving way to single person households and households of unrelated adults. Among family households, the share who are raising children declined from 68 percent in 1970 to 64 percent in 1994. It is still considerably above the US average of 50 percent. The "traditional family" -- a married couple with children- accounted for over half of all households in 1970, but only one-third in 1994. As the population of Alaska continues to age, these trends will contiime, and Alaska household composition will look more like that of the U.S. as a whole. Alaska's average household size has historically been above the national average and continues so today. A higher proportion of Alaskans are in their child rearing years than in the U.S. as a whole, so more Alaskan households include children. Fewer are older households with just one or two senior citizens. Also, Alaska's native population has had a high birth rate and larger families than the U.S. average. Finally, limited housing availability in rural Alaska promotes extended family living and limits the number of single person households. Average family size in the native community has fallen with the decline in the birth rates of native women and increased availability of housing. In the non-native community the changing composition of households accounts for most of the decline in the average household size. As with the changing composition of households, the decline in household size has moderated in recent years and the current average household size of 2. 79 may be a low point in the for the Alaska population. As the population continues to age the composition of the population and households should more closely approach that of the US as a whole, continuing the trends towards fewer households with children and more non-family households. SETTLEMENT PATTERNS In 1995 over 75% of Alaska's population was within the five largest boroughs of Anchorage, Fairbanks, Matanuska-Susitna, Kenai Peninsula, and Juneau. The Greater Anchorage region, consisting of Anchorage and the Matanuska Susitna Borough, which has become primarily a suburb of the Anchorage Municipality, contained half of the population of the state. This concentration is largely due to the rapid growth of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough which has been the most rapidly growing part of Alaska since 1980 (Table 16). Differential population growth can be traced to differences in natural increase, different job growth rates (and thus employment opportunities) and other features which make an area attractive to live in. In recent years, net immigration has been most important in the rapidly growing urban areas, and the suburban areas adjacent to them. Out migration in times of job loss also affects these areas most heavily. Places with a lot of seasonal or military employment tend to be initial destinations for migrants, and have disproportionate rates of turnover of their populations. Other areas - the Matanuska-Susitna Borough is the best example- draw more people who are already Alaska residents. In contrast, rural areas have consistently shown a predominant pattern of net out-migration. In most of Alaska, there has been migration of the Native population into the large urban areas of Greater Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Kenai Peninsula Borough. However, because natural in- Econon1ic/l)cn1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 22

crease in the rural areas more than balances out-migration, these areas continue to grow, although more slowly than urban areas. TABLE 16. ALASKA POPULATION AND GROWTH RATE BY CENSUS AREA Growth 1970 1980 1995 Rate 1980-95 STATE 302,583 401,851 615,900 2.9% Anchorage 126,385 174,431 257,780 2.6% Matanuska Susitna Borough 6,509 17,816 50,601 7.2% Kenai Peninsula Borough 16,586 25,282 46,759 4.2% Kodiak Island Borough 9,409 9,939 15,400 3.0% Valdez Cordova 4,977 8,348 10,657 1.6% Fairbanks North Star Borough 45,864 53,983 84,380 3.0% Southeast Fairbanks 4,308 5,676 6,522 0.9% Yukon-Koyukuk (Including Denali) 7,045 7,873 8,488 0.5% Nome 5,749 6,537 8,991 2.1% North Slope Borough 3,451 4,199 6,989 3.5% Northwest Arctic Borough 4,048 4,831 6,694 2.2% Haines Borough 1,401 1,680 2,310 2.1 'Yo Juneau Borough 13,556 19,528 29,228 2.7% Ketchikan Gateway Borough 10,141 11,316 15,082 1.9% Prince of Wales 3,782 3,822 6,934 4.1% Sitka Borough 6,073 7,803 9,194 1.1% Skagway Yakutat 2,792 3,478 4,617 1.9% Wrangell Petersburg 4,920 6,167 7,303 1.1% Aleutians (East & West) 7,834 7,768 8,369 0.5% Bethel 8,917 10,999 15,367 2.3% Bristol Bay Borough 1,147 1,094 1,305 1.2% Dillingham 3,872 3,232 4,421 2.1% Lake and Peninsula Borough * 1,384 1,839 1.9% Wade Hampton 3,917 4,665 6,670 2.4% The military population has an important influence on settlement patterns in some areas. Military base closures in the last ten years have greatly changed the population composition of the western Aleutians, the Bristol bay Borough, and some communities in interior Alaska. In 1995 the largest concentrations of active duty military were in the urban areas of Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Kodiak (Table 17). In the past, high military populations shifted the population towards single young males. While this is still true, the composition of the military and military dependent population has been changing. There are more women among the active duty force and the ratio of dependents to active duty personnel has increased as the average age of active duty personnel has risen. Econo111ic/l)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 23

TABLE 17. ALASKA'S NATIVE AND MILITARY POPULATION 1995 Total Native Native Military Share STATE 615,900 97,004 15.7% 19,633 Anchorage 257,780 18, 124 7.0% 9,386 Matanuska Susitna Borough 50,601 2,123 4.2% 0 Kenai Peninsula Borough 46,759 3,213 6.9% 99 Kodiak Island Borough 15,400 2,361 15.3% 1,028 Valdez Cordova 10,657 1,543 14.5 /., 110 Fairbanks North Star Borough 84,380 5,673 6.7% 6,948 Southeast Fairbanks 6,522 818 12.5% 386 Yukon-Koyukuk (Including Denali) 8,488 4,541 53.5% 115 Nome 8,991 6,988 77.7% 24 North Slope Borough 6,989 4,884 69.9% 0 Northwest Arctic Borough 6,694 5,949 88.9% 0 Haines Borough 2,310 299 12.9% 0 Juneau Borough 29,228 3,476 11.9% 231 Ketchikan Gateway Borough 15,082 1,794 11.9% 212 Prince of Wales 6,934 2,767 39.9% 0 Sitka Borough 9,194 1,845 20.1 'Yo 207 Skagway Yakutat 4,617 1,878 40.7% 0 Wrangell Petersburg 7,303 1,355 18.6% 27 Aleutians (East & West) 8,369 2,851 34.1% 860 Bethel 15,367 12,857 83.7% 0 Bristol Bay Borough 1,305 482 36.9% 0 Dillingham 4,421 3,451 78.1% 0 Lake and Peninsula Borough 1,839 1,438 78.2% 0 Wade Hampton 6,670 6,294 94.4% 0 Econon1ic/Dc111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 24

REGIONS Table 18 shows how population and income are distributed across the transportation regions. Since 1980, population and employment have become more concentrated in the Southcentral Interior region, as growth there has been faster than in other regions of the state. In the 90s, wage and salary employment and income have grown most rapidly in the Western Arctic. Western Arctic data also shows that wage and salary income is almost as high as personal income for that region. This is because wage and salaty income is measured by place of work, and personal income by place of residence. Because many No1ih Slope oil workers (whose place of work is Western Arctic) live in Southcentral-Interior, their wages are included in the wage and salary income for Western Arctic, but as part of the personal income for Southcentral Interior. Table 18. Historical Data by Region Growth Growth 1980 1990 1995 80-95 90-95 Southeast Population 56 69 73.2 1.80% 1.19% W &S Employment 26.6 34.2 35.5 1.94% 0.75% Personal Income* $1,302.0 $1,900.4 $1864 2.60% -048% W&S Income $1,105.9 $1083-0.42% South central-interior Population 304.1 406 452.9 2.69% 2.21% W&S Employment 117.2 165.9 184.7 3.08% 2.17% Personal Income* $6,627.3 $10,117.4 $10,845.6 3.58% 1.75% W &S Income $5,807.4 $5896.7 0.31% Western Arctic Population 59.7 75.1 77.4 1.75'Yo 0.61% W&S Employment 25.1 33.8 37.8 2.77% 2.26% Personal Income* $964 $1,432.7 $1,477.1 3.09% 0.77% W&S Income $1, 197.4 $1,276.8 1.29% Note: Last value for personal incon1e is 1994 SOUTHCENTRAL / INTERIOR The Southcentral I Interior regions stretches from the Gulf of Alaska to the Arctic Ocean, and includes Alaska's two largest cities, Anchorage and Fairbanks. The statewide trends discussed in the previous section largely reflect this ai ea, which holds the majority of the state's population, includes almost all the state's oil employment, major commercial fishing areas in Cook Inlet and Prince William Sound, and several major tourist destinations, including Denali Park and the Kenai Peninsula. Figures 18 and 19 show that southcentral-interior population and employment expanded and contracted somewhat more sharply than the rest of the state. This region has a greater share of volatile job categories (such as construction jobs) and more migration into and out of the state takes place from here than the southeast or western arctic regions. Econon1ic/De1nographic Projections ISER, March 97 25

SOUTHEAST Southeast Alaska developed as a region of timber and fishing, and since statehood had added state government and tourism to its economy. Fishing has been generally increasing, but more slowly than the statewide figures. Timber, as described in Forest Products above, has been declining since the late 80s, with the shutdown of major pulp mills and saw mills, and the decline of the Native timber harvest since its peak about a decade ago. Figure 18. Population Growth Rates by Region 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 -a- Southeast Southcentral-Jnterio1* Western Arctic Figure 19. Employment Growth Rates By Region State government, which had 10% been a rapid source of growth in the Juneau area since 5 /o statehood and especially in the 70s and 80s, is relatively static now. Tourism is -5 /o southeast's major growth industry at present, with growth in cruise visits, independent 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 travelers, and a B Sou! beast Southcentral lnterio"*" Western Arctic steady increase in new ecotourism firms. The booms and busts in southeast industries are not concurrent. Timber has been declining in the 90s, but fishing has been generally steady; state government growth has stopped, but tourism growth continues. Because it's difficult to move between these industries, individuals may feel all the economic ups and downs of booms and busts in their industry, while aggregate numbers for the region show much more moderate expansions and contractions. WESTERN ARCTIC The Western Arctic region encompasses some of the poorest regions of the state, as well as some of its richest fishing grounds. Communities in the Kodiak - Bristol Bay - Aleutians part of the region are heavily dependent on commercial fishing, which has boomed in recent years with the development of the Bering Sea bottom fish industry, and with record salmon runs. In the more western and northern portions of the region, economic opportunity is much more limited, and the local economies are largely dependent on state and local government and Native Corporation jobs, and government transfers. The federal government is still a relatively large economic presence here, with BIA contract health care employing many people. Econo111ic/l)e1nographic Projections ISER, March 97 26

Employment growth and decline closely tracks that of the southcentral-interior region. In the oil boom of the early 80s, state aid to local governments fneledjob growth; the oil spill clean-up produced some increased employment in the western arctic, but also provided temporary highwages to residents who travelled to the spill area, and then spent their wages at home in the western arctic, supporting trade and services jobs there. Population change has been more moderate in the western arctic region than employment change; perceived lack of better opportunities elsewhere and the ability to depend on a combination of subsistence and transfers mean that job loss has not lead to as rapid out-migration as other regions. Likewise, remote conditions have made it difficult to attract in-migrants to new job opportunities, and relatively high unemployment has meant that there are often enough local residents in the labor force to provide workers for new jobs. Econo1nic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 27

FUTURE GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY THE BASIC INDUSTRIES For the foreseeable future, the Alaska export base will continue to be dominated by commodityproducing industries such as oil and gas, seafood, and mining. However, the federal government will continue as a major employer, and tourism will continue to expand its role. Anchorage and Fairbanks are developing a new basic industry; they operate as transfer and refueling hubs for international air cargo shipment. Petroleum, mining, and tourism hold the most potential for employment growth through expansion of the resource base. Growth of the timber and seafood industries may result from more intensive exploitation of the resource base coupled with the expansion of value-added processing. Relatively high labor costs, sparse and expensive infrastructure, small market size, and distance from markets will continue to act as barriers to this, as well as to the development of other resource processing, manufacturing and services for export. Because of this dependence on commodity-producing industries, the Alaska economy will contiime to experience localized business cycles as commodity prices respond to world market conditions. Although the existence of these cycles can be expected, their timing cannot be forecast. Consequently our projections have an appearance of smoothness and continuity which contrasts with the past experience of the economy and which is unlikely to be the actual pattern in the future. For example, building a pipeline to bring North Slope gas to market would cause a significant construction boom followed by a transition to a much smaller operational work force. The cycle would be similar to, but smaller than, the historical cycle associated with construction of the trans-alaska oil pipeline in the 1970s. We have included such a cycle in our assumptions for the High Case projection. OIL AND GAS. 1970 FIGURE 20. ALASKA PETROLEUM PRODUCTION MILLION BARRELS PER DAY 1975 1980 1985 1990 CJCOOK INLET 0 PRUDHOE BAY OOTHER NORTH SLOPE Oil production began in Cook Inlet but has been dominated by North Slope production since 1977 when the Trans Alaska Pipeline was completed. Production peaked in 1988 and has declined for nearly a decade at about 4 percent annually. North Slope production has been dominated by the Prudhoe Bay field, the largest oil field ever discovered in North America (Figure 20). The industry continues to explore and discover new fields and to use technological innovation to increase the amount of oil which can be profitably extracted from known fields. Also, the state government and industry have worked together on tax and royalty incentives to encourage development of marginal fields (e.g. North 1995 Econon1ic/De1nographic Projections ISER, March 97 28

Star). This means that known fields produce more than originally forecast, and new fields contiime to be brought on line. Even so, production from more recently developed fields on the N01ih Slope can only partially offset the decline in Prudhoe Bay production. The Alaska Department of Revenue expects continued decline in the rate of production, and they project it to fall below I million barrels per day in the middle of the next decade. Other analysts suggest that new technology and higher prices for oil combined with more liberal federal and state policies could forestall any further declines in the production rate. Under any scenario, however, we can expect that the petroleum industry will be a driver for the economy for the foreseeable future because of the large number of undeveloped oil and gas fields on the North Slope. The industry will continue to view the North Slope of Alaska as the best domestic prospect for new production. SEAFOOD. Seafood employment has grown as new fisheries have been developed over the last several decades. These fisheries are now entirely utilized and further expansion of the industry is constrained by the size of the renewable resource. Expansion of the industry in the future could come from" Alaskanization" of the fleet and processing work forces or from additional value added processing of the harvest. However, management policies could reduce Alaska employment, for example by limiting participation in the fisheries while allowing more efficient harvesting techniques. International competition, from farmed seafood and from unexploited stocks (such as those in Siberia) could continue to reduce the value of Alaska stocks. FOREST PRODUCTS. The export of unprocessed timber remains the most economically viable option for this industry in the foreseeable future, but the size of the industry is constrained by the availability of the resource. There are an growing number of very small firms which emphasize value added processing- for example, extremely precise lumber for Japanese home builders or high quality wood panels for musical instrument makers. While the number of these firms is growing, their extremely small size precludes their having a major effect on the state's economy. MINING The mining industry may finally be beginning to fulfill its promise as an important basic industty in Alaska. The general lack of infrastructure at most sites, high construction and operating costs at remote sites, and distance from markets, means that only the largest deposits can be successfully developed. Furthern1ore, they must be able to withstand the dramatic price fluctuations experienced in world metal and coal markets due to world business cycles. However, the mineral potential of Alaska has long been recognized; and the combination of a large base of prospects, increasing world demand, and technological advances will result in growth in production. This is reflected in the current activity level in this indusl!y around the state and particularly in Southeast and Interior Alaska. The development of the Fort Knox mine outside Fairbanks, the reopening of the Greens Creek mine outside Juneau, and the expansion of the Red Dog Mine in the Northwest are the most visible examples of this interest. Econo111ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 29

TOURISM. The tourism industry is likely to continue its rapid growth for a number of years before slowing to a more gentle pace. Two factors are driving the growth in the number of visitors: growth of demand for tourism in the US and abroad and the increasing market share being drawn to Alaska because of continuing development of the tourism infrastructure - hotels, visitor centers, etc.- in the state. The impact of tourism on the economy depends not only on the number of visitors, but also on how long they stay in the state and how much they spend per day while here. The industry is working hard to increase both of those parameters. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT Although the trend in active duty employment is downward, a future increase in manpower levels is certainly possible in Alaska if troops are returned to the United States from abroad as a cost cutting measure. Furthennore, continued unrest in many parts of the world could lead to a need for additional manpower in the future. Also, a new hospital is under construction in Anchorage at Elmendorf Air Force Base which will serve a large part of the Pacific region, and some increases in manpower will be required to staff that facility. This development underscores not only the fact that military capital expenditures are an important source of employment for the construction industry, but also that there is a trend toward the upgrading of the types of jobs reflected in the manpower figures. The hospital staff will include a larger complement of higher paid officers than manpower lost earlier at Fort Richardson. This has been reflected in a sharp increase in the ')Verage annual wage in the military in Alaska in recent years. In spite of some recent reduction in the number of federal employees in Alaska the federal government presence in the state is likely to increase in the future consistent with the longer term trend in this sector for several reasons. Federal civilian employment in certain agencies such as the US Postal Service will respond to growth in the population of the state. Other agencies such as the US Department of Interior will experience increasing levels of activity as the demands on federally owned and managed public resources increase. Civilian employment related to the military is likely to remain important as well. In addition to the presence of many federal agencies within Alaska, the federal government is involved in a number of important programs which impact the economy and annual capital appropriations also help to build the infrastructure of the state as well as provide jobs in construction and other industries. Examples of important federal programs include the bypass mail system which provides below market cost transportation services to many rural communities and the forest service fire suppression program, and federal highway funding. INTERNATIONAL AIR CARGO TRANSSHIPMENT Servicing the air cargo industry is a fairly new basic activity. Alaska's position on the Pacific Rim between the West Coast of the US and Northeast Asia has long been an important asset for the economy. During the l 970's and l 980's Anchorage, and to a lesser extent Fairbanks, served as a refueling stop for international passenger flights between the US and Asia and in some instances between both of those locations and Europe. With the advent of a new generation of long distance jet aircraft and the opening of Soviet airspace to foreign carriers Alaska lost its position as an intermediate stop for traffic over these routes. However, shortly thereafter the Anchorage Econo1nic/I)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 30

and Fairbanks airports began to benefit from the growing air freight traffic along these same routes. In particular Anchorage has quickly developed into a major freight sorting, training, and maintenance hub for air traffic between the US and Asia. As many as 2 thousand jobs at the International airports in Anchorage and Fairbanks may be attributable to this activity and the prospects for continued growth as the market expands are excellent. INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION With a lower rate of growth in employment and population projected for the foreseeable future, the level of activity in the construction industry will be somewhat smaller in relation to the overall economy than it has been in the past. It will continue to be the most volatile sector of the economy since large construction projects, funded either by private or public funds, by their nature do not occur smoothly over time. TRANSPORTATION. Growth transportation employment has closely followed that of the overall economy and that relationship can be expected to continue in the future. PUBLIC UTILITIES. We expect this industry to continue to expand slowly with the continued development of the economy of the state. BUSINESS SERVICES. We expect Business Services to continue to be one of the more rapidly growing industries in the future. Local providers can expand by earning a greater market share away from firms in the lower 48; by taking advantage of a growing market as firms outsource more work, and by providing new services which emerge with changing technology. SUPPORT TRADE, SERVICES AND FINANCE We expect the trade, service and finance industries to continue to be among of the strongest growth sectors of the economy, particularly health services and services to tourists and other visitors. An increasing share of consumer expenditures is for services both nationwide and in Alaska, and this trend is expected to continue. Growth in other services to residents will be slower than in the past due to the general slowing of the growth in disposable income and the fact that the market for many types of services, at least in the larger urban areas, has been saturated. However, growth in service oriented proprietors will continue to grow as the economy grows and the opportunities for self employment expand. MISCELLANEOUS MANUFACTURING Growth in manufacturing will continue to be hampered by high costs and small market size and new entrants will continue to be those firms that can identify a small niche market. Econon1ic/I)e111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 31

STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT In the past, local government employment growth has been driven by population growth. Since local governments are highly dependent on state financial assistance, that close link may not continue into the future. In recent years the ability of state government to provide increasing amounts of revenue sharing, municipal assistance, and tax sharing has evaporated and local governments without their own tax base have been hard pressed to expand or even maintain service levels. The one area where state assistance will most readily continue to flow is education which comprises a large share of local government employment. Furthermore local governments' ability to finance capital expenditures is limited and dependence on state assistance in this area will also result in a reduction in historical levels of expenditures by local governments on infrastructure maintenance and improvements. The future growth of state government employment depends on the fiscal policies the state adopts in response to declining oil revenues. ~ z Q ~ ~ "' $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 FIGORE 21. STATE GENERAL FOND REVENOE FORECAST.... j....... L......j.... +... + - :!...!...!,: BILLION$ (1996$) ; 1 + + r,,,... [.!... +... +... j...,.... 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 FALL 1995 ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF REVENUE I LOW +MID HIGH I Revenues from petroleum production account for 85 percent of the state general fund budget and about l-in-3 jobs in Alaska can be traced to state government spending. Over the long term, petroleum production will continue to decline and this will continue to have a major impact on the economy as it translates into declining real state general fund revenues (Figure 21 ). Other resource industries are too small, and without enough growth potential, to fill the void in state funding left by declining petroleum revenues. Whereas in the past increasing state expenditures fueled by expanding petroleum revenues contributed significantly to economic growth, the loss of petroleum revenues is now beginning to create a "fiscal drag" on the economy. We can't be sure exactly how the loss of petroleum revenues will impact the economy because it is difficult to predict either the future amount of petroleum revenues the state will take in or the adjustment policies state and local governments will adopt to deal with declining revenues. Up to now, the main response has been to try to minimize growth in the state operating budget and use cash reserves to balance the budget. However, more comprehensive adjustments will be necessary when these cash reserves have been depleted. Econon1ic/De1nographic Projections ISER, March 97 32

State petroleum revenues are based upon production, price, and the tax and ownership regime. Some analysts believe that trends in one or more of these factors will maintain or even increase state revenues. Although oil companies continue to develop new fields, none of these has the potential to do more than slow the projected decline in production. Also, we believe that the price will be relatively stable in the long run, although it is quite volatile in the short. State tax and royalty rates have changed numerous times in the past, but we assume no changes in the future that would significantly change effective rates. Federal policy also influences state petroleum revenues, most notably the recently lifted export ban on North Slope crude oil. We assume no change in federal policy affecting state petroleum revenues except the eventual opening of ANWR to exploration. In addition to taxes and royalties on current production, oil companies have paid the state several hundred million dollars in each of the last several years from the settlement of various legal disputes. This inventory of ontstanding cases has been greatly reduced, and the state has accumulated almost $3 billion in cash reserves. This balance will be spent over the next several years to cover general fund deficits anticipated at several hundred million dollars annually. $14 L...... FIGURE 22. PERMANENT FUND BALANCE BILLION 1995 $ $12 L-_,... """""" $10 L.................. ~. $8 L... ::::: -... $6 :::: - $4 L...... -. --- =... ::.. :: ":::'."' $2 L.....r::::i $0 L_..L..i. ~,,..,J ~_l ll ; 1_l. lj 1 _l : ll. i... ll. _l.. ~ ll -1... ll 1 J.ll '.Ll.J '_l'ljj.ll 'J.ll 'J.ll 'J.ll 'J.ll 'J.ll ' 1.ll 'J.ll 1 'J.l J' 1~1-1m1~1-1a1-1=1_1_1_ START OF YEAR BALANCE EXCLUDING UNDISTRIBUTED!NCOMEACCOUNT BALANCE AND UNREALIZED GAINS state royalties from petroleum and other resources, In contrast to the decreasing trend of petroleum revenues, the Alaska Permanent Fund, with a balance of about $16 billion (excluding the earnings reserve and unrealized capital gains), can provide increasing revenues (although these are not general fund revenues) (Figure 22). As in the past, its growth in real terms will come from two sources: deposits of a share of reinvestment of earnings in excess of the amount used for the Permanent Fund Dividend and for "inflation proofing'." Because of declining oil revenues, the future growth of the Fund is expected to be modest compared lo the past. Nonetheless, its annual earnings constitute a large and stable source of income for Alaska and will be an important element in any strategy to mitigate the effects of declining petroleum revenues. We assume a continuation of the conservative investment policy of the Fund and a stable 5 percent annual return after inflation. In response to declining petroleum revenues we assume that state government is successful in keeping the budget from growing in real terms but is unable to actually cut the budget. We as- 1 Price inflation reduces the purchasing power of the fund each year. Deposits 1nade to increase the no111inal size of the fund so as to tnaintain its purchasing power in real tcrn1s are inflation proofing. Econon1ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 33

sume that significant budget reductions take place only in the event that a combination of asset liquidations, tax increases, and efficiency measures proves inadequate to balance the budget. The timing of the introduction of taxes, use of Pemrnnent Fund, and liquidation of the Constitutional Budget Reserve thus depend primarily on the level of petroleum revenues. The combined effect of these fiscal measures is to cushion the state economy from the full effects of the reduction in petroleum revenues. Employment in government falls, as does the importance of public programs in the economy, but this is at least partially offset by efficiency gains in service delivery and the use of financial assets. State government spending-operations, capital expenditures, transfers to local governments, transfers to individuals, loans to business and individuals- will no longer contribute to economic growth as was the case in the past. Local governments are also large employers and are heavily dependent on state transfers to support their programs. Declining state transfers to local governments will limit their ability of to expand services and will force them to look for new sources of revenue as well. One important assumption is the continued existence of the Pennanent Fund at the same time that there is a decline in government expenditures and the Permanent Fund dividend. The Fund's continued existence provides an imp01iant source of income to Alaska and Alaskans, but it is possible that it would not survive the difficult transition which declining revenues might impose. "Cashing out" of the Fund in the short run would eliminate it as a source of income in the longer term, and this would have significant consequences for any economic projection- providing a temporary stimulus to the economy as long as Permanent Fund-supported government spending were available, but followed by a severe economic slump. There is no assurance that state government will respond to declining petroleum revenues in the way which effectively smooths the effects of declining oil revenues. There is a tendency in representative government to postpone the politically painful decisions associated with budget reductions until a crisis arises. However, the special contributions to the Pennanent Fund in the 1980s demonstrated that Alaskans could balance future public sector needs against pressing present demands. Thus, our assumption that the state will be successful in managing its fiscal future is at least partially supported by past experience. THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AND POLITICS Trends in the national economy have an important influence on the growth of the Alaska economy. First, a large portion of the exports of the state are sold in the lower 48, so the strength of Alaska export industries, particularly tourism, depends upon the general health of the US economy. Second, the growth in real wage rates at the national level, which is driven by productivity increases, directly influences growth in real wages in Alaska. If real wages grow nationally, Alaska real wages will also grow to maintain parity. Higher real wages would in turn contribute to increased purchasing power for Alaskan consumers. Third, unemployment in the rest of the nation influences the size of the labor force in Alaska. Higher national unemployment causes more people to consider Alaska as a place to look for work. Finally, the size of the federal budget has an important influence on the Alaska economy since Alaska receives more in federal expenditures per capita than any other state. In our projections, we assume no significant changes in long-term national economic trends for these variables. Eco110111ic/Dcn1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 34

Because of the large military and federal civilian work forces, the large share of federally owned and managed natural resources, the large Native American population, and the fact that Alaska has only recently become a state, the federal government plays an important role in the Alaska economy. In general, we assume no major departures from cmrnnt policies in these and other areas, such as the legal structure of the Alaska Native C01porations and the by-pass mail system of the US Post Office, which provides subsidized freight service to mral Alaska. We do assume that the federal cost of living adjustment (COLA), paid to a large share of federal employees in Alaska, gradually declines from its current level of 25 percent to 15 percent. WAGES, PERSONAL INCOME, AND PRICES The real average annual civilian wage is projected to decline modestly in the future as employment continues to shift towards lower wage industries, downward pressure continues on wage rates from slower growth in employment opportunities, and the cost of living differential between Alaska and the U.S. continues to narrow. Income from non-wage sources is expected to continue to grow, but at a slower pace than historically. Dividend I interest I rent income will increase as the population ages (older people have more of this non-wage income, having accumulated more wealth). There will be less growth in transfers, due to the likely reduction in the Permanent Fund dividend and other state government transfer programs, and the inability of the federal government to finance the continued expansion of entitlements such as Medicaid and Medicare at the same rates as in the past. The slowdown in growth of these non-wage components of income will impact household income and slow growth of support employment. At some point, income will briefly increase, because of the distribution of the Exxon Valdez oil spill lawsuit settlement. This will provide large payments to a significant number of Alaskans. Although the settlement amounts to about $5 billion, the amount which it would add to Alaskans' incomes is unknown since the decision is under appeal and some recipients are not Alaska residents. We assume $1 billion will be added to Alaskan incomes from this source at the end of the decade. Real per capita income will remain relatively constant, reflecting these opposing trends in real wage rates and non-wage income. However, real per capita disposable income will fall slightly with the re-imposition of the personal income tax, which we assume will occur within the next five years. There will continue to be significant differences in the level of per capita personal income across the communities of the state as well as in the sources of income. Incomes tend to be higher in the larger urban areas where the diversification of sources is the highest. The more rural parts of the state are and will continue to be more dependent on federal and state government sources of mcome. The price level in Anchorage is about 15 percent above the national average. This is down from 46 percent above in 1961, 34 percent in 1970, and 29 percent in 1980. The downward trend in the cost of living differential is attributable to an increase in market size in the state which results in competition in consumer and labor markets and economies of scale. These trends are expected to continue, albeit at a slower rate so that the price level in Anchorage will move closer to, but I~conon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 35

not fall to, the national average. In outlying and rural areas the cost of living is higher than in Anchorage. These differentials will persist due to the small size and remoteness of much of the state. Because the price level is expected to move marginally closer to the national average, inflation will closely track the national average as well. Econornic/I)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 36

MODEL ASSUMPTIONS Three projections of economic and demographic growth have been prepared for the Alaska Department of Transportation planning process. The medium case is driven by the combination of assumptions about future levels of natural resource industry production and other variables most likely to occur. The high case is based on more optimistic assumptions and the low case, slower growth assumptions. Together these three cases should bracket the likely range of possible future growth paths for employment, population, and other variables of impmiance for Department of Transportation planning purposes. Table 19 below summarizes important assumptions which differ between the 3 scenarios. Detail on the assumptions and outputs for each case are presented in a separate table at the end of this appendix. Table 19. Summary of Selected Assumptions which Vary Across Cases Assumption Low Case Medium Case High Case Petroleum Similar to Ak DoR Fall '96 Low Ak DoR Fall '96 Mid Case Constant Nominal $ Taxes Case Oil Litigation $1.65 Billion in '96 -'00 Same as Low $1.8 Billion in '96 -'00 & 500 Mil- Settlements lion '01-'05 North Slope Declines to 2, 780 by '00 and Declines to 3,200 by '96 and Increases to 4,600 by '00 and Employment then constant then constant then constant Cook Inlet Em- Constant 1,200 Constant 1,200 Increase to 1 ADO ployment HQ Employment Constant at 4.500 1 % Annual increase 2% Annual Increase ANWR No Action Exploration in '98 Exploration; Production commences '05, nominal $450 million annual state revenues Us of North None Some; 1,000 jobs after '05 TAGS construction '05 - '10, Slope Gas empl peaks at 7.202; Operations empl at 1, 130; $400 million nominal in state revenue Mining Employs 1900 by '00; 2,000 by 2,600 jobs by '00; 3,000 by '15 3,300 jobs by '00; 4,200 by '15 '15 Federal Em- Military declines 1 % annually Military constant; civilian in- Military increases 1 % annually; ployment and Ft. Richardson closes; ci- creases.25% annually civilian increases.5% annually vilian increases.25% annually Seafood Har- Employment declines 1 % per Jobs constant Harvesting Empl constant; procvesting/ proc- year essing grows somewhat in '90s essing then constant Tourism Expenditures grow 4% annually Expenditures grow 5% annually Expenditures grow 7% annually through '00, then 3% annually through '00, then 4% annually through '00, then 5% annually through '10, then 2% annually through '10, then 3% annually through '10, then 4% annually Perm Fund Real 4% annually 5% annually 6% annually Rate of Return Perm Fund Divi- Dividend total spending cut from Dividend total spending cut from Dividend total spending cut from dend 50% of earnin s to 12.5% 50% of earnin s to 25% 50% of earn in s to 37.5% I~conon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 37

MODEL PROJECTIONS Detailed state and regional projections for the three cases are presented at the end of this appendix. MEDIUM CASE Table 19 summarized the results of the medium case. Total employment, including both wage and salary employment and self employed workers, grows slightly faster than 1 % annually between 1996 and 2020- more slowly in the near term and somewhat more rapidly in the subsequent years. This is slower growth that Alaska has experienced historically, but consistent with the historical pattern of deceleration of the growth rate over the last three decades. This deceleration is the result of the maturation of the economy, the maturation of the petroleum industry, and the fiscal constraints impacting state and local government. Growth will continue in spite of a continued decline in oil production due to the depletion of the Prudhoe Bay field. Employment growth will be concentrated in the support sector of the economy- trade, services, and finance--- consistent with the historical pattern and with national trends. Infrastructure employment- construction, transportation, public utilities, and business services- will grow more slowly. The 1.3 percent growth rate is the result of three different trends. Construction employment is almost flat. Although this is an area in which the actual future is likely to be more volatile than the smooth projection, there are no major long-term public or private projects in the medium case which would boost construction employment for a sustained period. Transportation, communications and public utilities will grow about as fast as population and real income. Business services, although small, grows extremely rapidly and is projected to add over 2,000 jobs to the economy by 2020. Basic sector jobs and state/ local government employment will grow more slowly. The basic sectors where job growth will occur include oil and gas, mining, tourism, air freight transportation, and federal government (civilian employment). Employment levels in the seafood, timber, and military sectors are assumed to remain relatively constant over time. Oil and gas employment will grow despite projected declining production levels because exploiting marginal fields and marginal reserves within known fields demands more labor intensive practices than current production does. The other basic sectors will reflect the trends discussed above. Real income growth will surpass employment growth in spite of the economy's shift towards relatively lower wage employment opportunities in trade and services. The aging of the population will bring growth in non-wage income, since older households get a larger share of their income from non-labor sources such as retirement plans. Between 1996 and 2020, although wage and salary payments will grow at just under 1 percent (slightly slower than wage and salary employment growth of 1.2 percent), transfers will grow at 2.3 percent and dividend/ interest/ rent income at 3.8 percent. Econon1ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 38

TABLE 19. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS MEDIUM CASE Alaska Statewide Summary Statistics 1996 2000 2010 2020 2025 Population (000) 610.8 635.2 727.5 865.6 938.6 Households (000) 216.4 227.4 263.6 314.6 341.8 Real Personal Income (millions of 1995 $) $15,139 $16,305 $18,286 $22,403 $24,841 Wage & Salary Employment (000) 261.8 270.4 297.6 348.3 376.6 Growth Rates 96-00 00-10 10-20 96-20 Population 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% Households 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% Real Personal 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% Wage &Salary Employment 0.8% 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% Statewide Employment by Sector 1996 2000 2010 2020 2025 Total 306.7 316.1 345.9 401.9 433.3 Basic 86.7 89.5 97.7 105.7 110.2 Infrastructure 37.7 38.4 41.9 50.8 54.8 Support 128.5 137.5 152.7 188.1 209.2 State I Local Govt. 53.3 50.3 53.6 57.2 59.0 Growth Rates 96-00 00-10 10-20 96-20 Total 0.8 /,, 0.9% 1.5% 1.1% Basic 0.8% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% Infrastructure 0.4% 0.9% 1.9% 1.3'% Support 1.7% 1.1% 2.1% 1.6% State I Local Govt. -1.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% Urban & Rural Statistics 1996 2020 96-20 Urban Alaska Population 406.1 564.7 1.4% Households 149.9 213.5 1.5% Real Personal Income $10,878 $16,095 1.6% Wage &Salary Employment 186.5 248.8 1.2% Rural Alaska Population 204.7 301.0 1.6% Households 66.4 101.1 1.8% Real Personal Income $4,261 $6,308 1.6% Wage &Salary Employment 75.3 99.6 1.2% Econon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 39

In the past, population and household growth in Alaska have tracked employment growth as migrants entered and left the state following economic opportunities (compare figures 4 and 17). Migration will continue to be a major factor in Alaska's population growth, as the means for the labor market to clear. When Alaska's employment growth exceeds its labor force growth, net inmigration will provide the workers to fill the jobs. When employment growth is slower, net outmigration will reduce the labor supply. However, population and household growth will actually exceed that of employment due to the rapid growth in the population over 65 and the aging of the working age population. The older cohorts in the working age population tend to have lower labor force participation rates. So, migration and natural increase will ensure population growth keeps up with employment growth, and increasing numbers of older residents not in the labor force will push the growth rate even higher. As a result the dependency ratio- the ratio of children and senior citizens to the working age population- will increase. Household growth will exceed population due to a continued, albeit slow, decline in the average household size. The regional patterns of growth will diverge from the state projections. Both economic and demographic growth will be fastest in the Southcentral-Interior region, somewhat slower in the Southeast, and slower still in the Western Arctic region (Tables 20A and 20B). The reasons for this are clear when reviewing our general expectations for the statewide economy's future. The Southcentral-Interior contains significant shares of the state's likely growth industries in the basic sector. Oil and gas, which will continue to drive the economy and generate increasing employment even with decreasing production, is extracted, transported, and headquartered all in this region. There are some of the state's largest tourist attractions, and the great majority of visitors who arrive by air or land visit here. The fledgling air freight transshipment industry is almost entirely in Anchorage and Fairbanks. In addition air, land and rail transportation infrastructure give the Southcentral-lnterior region an advantage in supplying infrastructure and support goods and services to remote areas both within and outside the region. For these reasons, the Southcentral-Interior region will capture four out of five new residents, jobs and dollars of real income- somewhat more than its current 70 to 75 percent share. The Southeast economy has Jong been dominated by fishing, timber, and state government, industries for which little growth is projected. However, tourism, the fastest growing basic industry, is also a major, if seasonal, part of Southeast's economy. The majority of cruise visitors to the state travel largely or completely in the southeast. Mining is another industry which will fuel continued economic growth; the southeast region will see two out of three new mining jobs statewide, adding I, 100 of these jobs by 2020. The Western Arctic region is the least economically developed of the three, and will continue to be so. The southern portion of the region is dominated by seafood harvesting and processing, which is projected to continue at current levels. In the north, employment both at the Red Dog mine and on the North Slope oil fields (a portion of which are in this region) will add 1,500 new jobs by 2020. Most new jobs, like most jobs at present, will be in the support and state and local government sectors. State and local government is especially important in the Western Arctic regional economy, and its very slow projected growth due to fiscal constraints will be reflected in the region's slow employment growth. Econon1ic/J)c111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 40

In each region, as statewide, population growth rates exceed employment growth, and household growth rates exceed population growth. The Western Arctic region, which cmtently has the largest households and youngest population of the three regions, shows the greatest difference in rates. TABLE 20A. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS MEDIUM CASE POPULATION (000) 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total 74.1 104 1.4'% Urban 53.3 76.4 1.5% Rural 20.8 27.6 1.2% Southcentral-Interior Total 457.5 659.9 1.5% Urban 337.5 469.9 1.4 /i, Rural 119.9 190. l 1.9% Western Arctic Total 79.2 101.7 1.0% Urban 15.3 18.4 0.8% Rural 64 83.2 1.1% HOUSEHOLDS (000) 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total 27.3 39.2 1.5% Urban 19.9 29.2 1.6% Rural 7.3 10.0 1.3% Southcentral-Interior Total 167.4 246.7 1.6% Urban 125.2 178.3 1.5% Rural 42.2 68.4 2.0% Western Arctic Total 21.7 28.8 1.2 /i, Urban 4.9 6 0.8'Yo Rural 16.8 22.8 1.3% Econo1nic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 41

TABLE 208. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS MEDIUM CASE REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total $2,083 $3,012 1.5% Urban $1,607 $2,352 1.6% Rural $475 $660 1.4% Southcentral-lnterior Western Arctic Total $11,445 $17,339 1.7% Urban $8,929 $13,315 1.7% Rural $2,516 $4,024 2.0% Total $1,612 $2,052 1.0% Urban $341 $428 1.0% Rural $1,270 $1,624 1.0% WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT (000) 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total 37.1 49.4 1.2%, Urban 28.5 38.5 1.3% Rural 8.6 10.8 1.0% Southcentral-lnterior Western Arctic Total 186.8 254.4 1.3% Urban 151.8 203.2 1.2o;., Rural 35.1 51.3 1.6% Total 37.8 44.5 0.7% Urban 6.3 7.1 0.5% Rural 31.6 37.5 0.7% Econon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 42

Urban and rural areas, when looked at in aggregate, show similar growth patterns. Employment and wage growth rates are the same in urban and rural Alaska. This is not surprising considering that although support and infrastructure employment tends to be concentrated in urban areas, North Slope oil fields and mining-- two significant contributors to jobs growth- are in rural areas. Tourism, a major growth industry, exists in both urban and rural areas. Also, our definitions of rural and urban are necessarily made at the census area level. This leaves many of Alaska's small regional centers, such as Nome, Kotzebue, Bethel and Dillingham, in the rural designation. These communities perform urban functions within their regions, providing significant amounts of the support and infrastructure sectors, as well as many federal, state and local government jobs. Rural Alaska does show higher population growth rates than urban Alaska. Much of this difference is because a share of the population growth stimulated by job growth in Anchorage is allocated to the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which is designated as rural. This means that the largest urban job growth center is generating rural population growth. Since together these two census areas comprise half the state, this affects the statewide as well as the regional statistics. Household growth rates are also higher in rural than in urban areas, and the disparity is greater than that of population growth rates. This does reflect a genuine difference between urban and rural Alaska. All the differences in household composition between the U.S. and Alaska are more pronounced in rural areas. The rate of change towards the national average is also more rapid there. So, for the same population growth, household growth will be more rapid in rural than urban Alaska. Within each region, the urban I rural differences are more a result of the specific census areas designated urban and rural than reflective of any general urban/ rural patterns. In Southcentral Interior, designation of the Matanuska-Susitna Borough as rural shifts that region's rural economy to look more urban than it is. In the Western Arctic region, Kodiak is the only urban census area. In contrast to the more northern part of the region, Kodiak's economy is dominated by seafood and to a lesser extent the Coast Guard base, but the difference does not reflect urban I rural patterns. In southeast, Sitka, Juneau and Ketchikan do function as urban centers for their regions. Since the economy is projected to grow fastest in the support and infrastructure sectors, and these sectors tend to concentrate in urban centers, it follows that in Southeast, we project urban areas will grow more rapidly than rural areas. 11conon1ic/l)e111ographic Projections JSER, March 97 43

HIGH CASE In the high case growth in employment is more than double the rate in the medium case (Table 21). In the basic, infrastructure, and support sectors, growth is double the base case, but in the state and local government sector, it is five times higher. In the high case, state and local government employment grows as fast as basic sector employment. The high case assumes ANWR development and North Slope gas sales as well as success at marginal oil field development; these factors combine to keep state oil revenues much higher than in the base case, which in turn supports a much larger level of state government. Basic sector growth results not only from these petroleum assumptions, but also from optimistic assumptions regarding mining and tourism activity. Growth in infrastructure and support employment is stimulated by higher employment growth in the basic sector and also by growth in non wage mcome. As in the medium case, population and household growth slightly exceed the growth rate of employment. The same demographic factors are at work- growth in over-65 age cohort, growth in the older working age cohorts leading to slightly lower overall labor force participation rates, and changing household composition. At the same time the more rapid population growth (bringing more non-native in-migrants to the state) reduces the relative importance of the Native population compared to the medium case. Tables 22A and 22B show the regional data. The urban/rural pattern is almost the same as in the medium case. Employment and income growth are virtually the same, and population and household growth is slightly higher in rural areas. The higher growth rate in the high case is reflected in each of the three regions with the largest differential from the medium case in the Western-Arctic region. The Western Arctic region benefits from the much higher North Slope oil production employment assumptions; it also benefits greatly from the increased state reve- 1mes. State and local government jobs are more important in the Western Arctic economy than in the other two regions, and the relatively higher level of state government in the high case would benefit this region the most. Econo111ic/Dcn1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 44

TABLE 21. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE Alaska Statewide Summary Statistics 1996 2000 2010 2020 2025 Population 610.8 651.2 902.6 1149.7 1310.6 Households 216.4 232.7 324.1 417.3 478.1 Real Personal Income (95$) $15,139 $16,989 $23,893 $32,673 $39,011 Wage &Salary Employment 261.8 280.4 379.9 480 548.5 Growth Rates 96-00 00-10 10-20 96-20 Population 1.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.7% Households 1.8% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% Real Personal Income 2.9% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% Wage &Salary Employment 1.7% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% Statewide Employment by Sector 1996 2000 2010 2020 2025 Total 306.7 327.5 439.7 554.1 632.7 Basic 86.7 94.5 113.8 127.6 137.4 Infrastructure 37.7 39.6 53.1 70 80.4 Support 128.5 143.1 203.5 278.8 334.2 State I Local Govt. 53.3 50.3 69.2 77.6 80.7 Growth Rates 96-00 00-10 10-20 96-20 Total 1.7% 3.0% 2.3'Yo 2.5% Basic 2.2% 1.9% 1.2% 1.6% Infrastructure 1.2%, 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% Support 2.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% State I Local Govt. -1.4% 3.2% 1.2% 1.6% Urban & Rural Statistics 1996 2020 96-20 Urban Alaska Population 406.1 757.8 2.6% Households 149.9 285.5 2.7% Real Personal Income (1995 $10,878 $23,648 3.3% $) Wage & Salary Employment 186.5 343.3 2.6% Rural Alaska Population 204.7 392.0 2.7%i Households 66.4 131.8 2.9% Real Personal Income (1995 $4,261 $9,025 3.2% $) Wage & Salary Employment 75.3 136.7 2.5% Econo111ic/De111ographic Projections!SER. March 97 45

TABLE 22A. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE Population 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Southcentral-Interior Total 74.1 133.2 2.5% Urban 53.3 100.3 2.7% Rural 20.8 33 1.9% Total 457.5 893.3 2.8% Urban 337.5 636 2.7 /o Rural 119.9 257.2 3.2% W cstcrn Arctic Total 79.2 123.2 1.9% Urban 15.3 21.3 1.4% Rural 64 101.8 2.0% Households Southeast Total 27.3 50 2.6%, Urban 19.9 38.1 2.7% Rural 7.3 11.9 2.1% Southcentral-Interior Total 167.4 332.4 2.9% Urban 125.2 240.4 2.8% Rural 42.2 92 3.3% Western Arctic Total 21.7 35 2.0% Urban 4.9 7 1.5% Rural 16.8 28 2.2% Econo111ic/l)e111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 46

TABLE 228. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS HIGH CASE, Cont'd Real Personal Income 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total $2,083 $4,295 3.1% Urban $1,607 $3,414 3.2% Rural $475 $880 2.6% Southcentral-Interior Total $11,445 $25,629 3.4% Urban $8,929 $19,676 3.3% Rural $2,516 $5,952 3.7% \Vestern Arctic Total $1,612 $2,750 2.3% Urban $341 $557 2.1% Rural $1,270 $2, 193 2.3% Wage &Salary Employment 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total 37.1 66.l 2.4% Urban 28.5 52.6 2.6% Rural 8.6 13.6 1.9% Southcentral-Interior Total 186.8 354.7 2.7% Urban 151.8 282.4 2.6% Rural 35. l 72.4 3.1%, Western Arctic Total 37.8 59.1 1.9% Urban 6.3 8.4 1.2% Rural 31.6 50.8 2.0% E.conon1ic/l)en1ographic Projections JSER, March 97 47

LOW CASE In the low case wage and salary employment growth is at a rate about half of the medium case (about 0.5 percent annually) and total employment growth even slower (0.4 percent). The difference in rates indicates that self-employment is growing even more slowly. Although proprietors involved in the tourist industry increase, commercial fishermen have an assumed decrease of 1 percent per year. Basic sector employment actually declines in the late 90s (Table 23) before growing at a slow but increasing rate from 2000 to 2020. This contrasts with the steady 0.8-0.9 percent growth in medium case basic employment throughout the forecast period. State and local government employment follows similar patterns in the low and medium cases, but the decline in the late 90s is less and the growth from 2000 to 2020 is also less in the low case than in the medium. The decline is less because as other state revenues decline, we assume the income tax is reimposed in 1998 in the low case compared to 2001 in the medium case. Income tax revenues slow the decline. Growth is less because all state revenues- including the income tax once it is reimposed- grow more slowly in the low case. Support and infrastructure are the growth sectors in the low case (as in the medium and high cases). Population growth will generally support increased employment in these sectors even when other sectors of the economy aren't growing. However, in the late 90s, when both basic and state and local government sectors are declining, support and infrastructure decline as well. During this period of economic contraction, the population also declines as workers Jacking employment opportunities migrate out of the state. Due to natural increase and to a reluctance to migrate on the part of rural and Native Alaskans, population decline is more moderate and later growth is more rapid than employment growth. For the same reasons, population growth is more rapid in rural than in urban Alaska. The regional pattern of growth is unchanged in the low case (Tables 24A and 24B). However the rate of employment growth in the Western-Arctic region in this case is virtually flat. This does not prevent population growth in this region, particularly in the rural parts of the region. Econon1ic/Dc111ographic Projections ISER, March 97 48

TABLE 23. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS LOW CASE Alaska Statewide Summary Statistics 1996 2000 2010 2020 2025 Population 610.8 608.7 667.4 738.5 761.9 Households 216.4 218.6 242.8 269.2 277.9 Real Personal Income (95$) $15,139 $15,454 $16,278 $18,104 $18,650 Wage &Salary Employment 261.8 257.3 271.4 293.8 295.8 Growth Rates 96-00 00-10 10-20 96-20 Population -0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% Households 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.9% Real Personal Income (95$) 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 0.7% Wage &Salary Employment -0.4% 0.5% 0.8% 0.5% Statewide Employment by Sector 1996 2000 2010 2020 2025 Total 306.7 299.4 312.5 335.5 337.1 Basic 86.7 84.6 85.6 86.5 87.3 Infrastructure 37.7 36. 1 38.4 43.7 43.7 Support 128.5 127.9 135.5 150.7 155.4 State I Local Govt. 53.3 50.8 53.0 54.6 50.6 Growth Rates 96-00 00-10 10-20 96-20 Total -0.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% Basic -0.6% 0.1% o.1o;., -O.oo;., Infrastructure -1.1% 0.6% 1.3% 0.6% Support -0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% State I Local Govt. -1.2'% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Urban & Rural Statistics 1996 2020 96-20 Urban Alaska Population 406.1 477 0.7%, Households 149.9 181.3 0.8% Real Personal Income (95$) $10,878 $12,888 0.7%1 Wage &Salary Employment 186.5 209.2 0.5% Rural Alaska Population 204.7 261.5 1.0% Households 66.4 87.9 1.2% Real Personal Income (95$) $4,261 $5,216 0.8% Wage &Salary Employment 75.3 84.6 0.5'% I~conon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 49

LOW CASE POPULATION 1996 2020 96-20 Southeast Total 74.1 88 0.7% Urban 53.3 64.8 0.8% Rural 20.8 23.2 0.5% Southcentral-Interior Total 457.5 559.3 0.8% Urban 337.5 396.9 0.7% Rural 119.9 162.4 1.3% Western Arctic Total 79.2 91.1 0.6% Urban 15.3 15.2-0.0% Rural 64 75.9 0.7% HOUSEHOLDS Southeast Total 27.3 33.4 0.8% Urban 19.9 25 1.0% Rural 7.3 8.4 0.6% Southcentrnl-Interior Total 167.4 210.2 1.0% Urban 125.2 151.4 0.8% Rural 42.2 58.8 1.4% Western Arctic Total 21.7 25.6 0.7% Urban 4.9 5.0 0.1% Rural 16.8 20.7 0.9% Econo111ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 50

TABLE 248. REGIONAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS LOW CASE REAL PERSONAL INCOME 1996 2020 Southeast Total $2,083 $2,426 Urban $1,607 $1,906 Rural $475 $520 96-20 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% Southcentral-Interior Total $11,445 $13,943 Urban $8,929 $10,648 Rural $2,516 $3,295 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% W estcrn Arctic Total $1,612 $1,735 Urban $341 $334 Rural $1,270 $1,401 0.3% -0.1% 0.4% WAGE & SALARY EMPLOYMENT 1996 2020 Southeast Total 37.1 41.2 Urban 28.5 32.3 Rural 8.6 8.9 96-20 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% Southcentral-Interior Total 186.8 214.6 Urban 151.8 171.1 Rural 35.1 43.5 0.6'% 0.5% 0.9% Western Arctic Total 37.8 37.9 Urban 6.3 5.8 Rural 31.6 32.2 0.0% -.03% 0.1% Econon1ic/l)en1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 51

SUMMARY AND TRANSPORTATION IMPLICATIONS Economic growth in the next 25 years will continue, but will be slow compared to growth over the last 25. Alaska's growth since statehood has been dominated and defined by exploration, production and transportation of oil. In addition, exploitation of other natural resources - - fish and timber-- also expanded. In contrast, growth in the next 25 years is likely to be driven as much by population growth as by basic industry growth. Only in the high case does growth rate for basic industry employment approach that of the 70s and 80s. That case depends on full development ofn01ih Slope natural gas- a huge resource on the same scale as the Prndhoe Bay oil field. In the most likely scenario basic industry, and indeed all sectors of the economy, grow only about half the rate we've seen in the past. Wage and salary payments will grow more slowly than wage and salary employment. Many new jobs will be in lower paying service occupations, and many be pmi time or seasonal (e.g., new jobs in the fast growing tourist industry). Real income growth will result from growth in Dividend/ interest/ rent income, growing as the population shifts to a greater proportion of older residents, who have more of this type of income. Both past development and future projections include a mix of remote, diffuse development and more concentrated urban development. Tourism and mining in the basic sector, and infrastructure and support jobs in regional hubs will provide growth in rural Alaska in all regions. Headquarters jobs, and infrastructure and support jobs in industries where economies of scale are important will concentrate in urban areas, notably in Anchorage and Fairbanks. As a result, the spatial patterns of settlement and economic activity won't change much, although in all three cases the Southcentral Interior region, already the location of most of the state's jobs and population, will increase its share by a modest amount. This region already has the most developed transportation infrastructure, with road, rail, air and water transportation links already in place. It is these existing transportation facilities that will have to absorb most of the growing demand. A few remote mining operations may demand new transportation links or routes, but in general new transportation demands will be for the improvement of existing links and facilities. The concentration of growth in service industries (tourism in the basic sector, business services in infrastructure and services in support) will tend to shift new transpotiation demands away from freight and cargo facilities and towards transportation of people. The two exceptions to this will be a continued need for increased freight handling capacity at Anchorage and Fairbanks airports (as freight transshipment grows) and ore transport facilities where mines are developed or expanded. 1;conon1ic/l)e1nographic Projections ISER, March 97 52

400 350. 300. 250. 200. Figure 23. Comparison of MAP Model Projections of Anchorage-Matsu Labor Market Area Population, 1988-2010 ------......... - - Old Projection ---New Projection 1---I-listorical Data In Southcentral Interior Anchorage employment growth will lead to Matanuska Susitna Borough (Mat-Su) population growth. Since the Palmer and Wasilla areas house many Anchorage commuters, growth in the Anchorage /Matsu area increases demand on the Parks and Glenn Highways. ISER ran projections from the MAP model for the Mat-Su in 1989 2 as part of the studies for widening the Glenn highway as far north as its split with the Parks highway. At the time, the increased highway capacity was expected to be adequate until 2010. Figure 23 shows that the new projection is slightly higher than the original one. The difference is greatest comparing what are now actual numbers for 1992 to 1995. The Anchorage -MatSu area population rebounded from the recession of the late 80s faster than ISER had projected; but our currently projected growth is slower than the rate we projected in 1989. In the Southeast region, population and economic activity are projected to grow more in the larger communities of Sitka, Ketchikan, and Juneau. Transportation demand between these communities and the larger urban centers of Anchorage and Seattle may increase. Also, as the infrastructure and support sectors of these southeast 'hub' communities expands, transportation demand between them and the smaller towns in their regions will increase. Transportation demand in the Western Arctic will remain diffuse and relatively sparse. Our projections don't imply the emergence of any major new transportation corridors, but rather modest increases in the demand on already existing facilities. 2 Matanuska-Susitna Borough Econon1ic and Demographic Projections, Scott Goldsn1ith and Eric Larson) ISER, April 1989. Econon1ic/Den1ographic Projections ISER, March 97 53

LIST OF SUPPLEMENTAL TABLES Assumptions for Long-Run Alaska Economic Projections Prepared for the Alaska DoT&PF, November 1996 Historical Population by DOT Region Historical Population by Census Area, Parts A through D Historical Personal Income by DOT Region Historical Personal Incon1e by Census Area, Parts A through D Historical Wage and Salary Payments by DOT Region Historical Wage and Salary Payments by Census Area, Parts A through D Historical Wage and Salary Employment by DOT Region Historical Wage and Salary Employment by Census Area, Parts A through D Projection Summary, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Employment by Sector, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Private Employment, Employment, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Government Employment, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Population Change, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Population Components, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) State Unrestricted General Fund Revenues, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) State Government Miscellaneous Variables, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Permanent Fund, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Local Government Revenues, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Components of Real Personal Income, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Price Indexes, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Population by Labor Market Area, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Total Employment by Labor Market Area, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Wage and Salary Employment, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Wage and Salary Employment, Southcentral-Intcrior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Wage and Salary Employment, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Population, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Population, Southeentrnl-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Population, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Number of Households, State and Soutl1east, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Number of Households, Southcentral-lnterior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Number of Households, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Real Personal Income, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Real Personal Income, Southeentrnl-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Real Personal Income, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Basic Employment, Parts 1 & 2, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Petroleum Revenues, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Miscellaneous Variables, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Petrnleum Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Fish Processing Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Timber Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Military Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Federal Civilian Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Mining Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Base Case (Medium Case) Projection Summary, 1996 DOT High Case Employment by Sector, 1996 DOT High Case Private Employment, Employment, 1996 DOT High Case Econo111ic/I)c111ographic Projections ISER, March 97

Government Employment, 1996 DOT High Case Population Change, 1996 DOT High Case Population Components, 1996 DOT High Case State Unres!Ticted General Fund Revenues, 1996 DOT High Case State Government Miscellaneous Variables, 1996 DOT High Case Permanent Fund, 1996 DOT High Case Local Government Revenues, 1996 DOT High Case Components of Real Personal Income, 1996 DOT High Case Price Indexes, 1996 DOT High Case Population by Labor Market Area, 1996 DOT High Case Total Employment by Labor Market Area, 1996 DOT High Case Wage and Salary Employment, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT High Case Wage and Salary Employment, Southcentral-lnterior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT High Case Wage and Salary Employment, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT High Case Population, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT High Case Population, Southcentral-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT High Case Population, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT High Case Number of Households, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT High Case Number of Households, Southcentral-lnterior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT High Case Number of Households, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT High Case Real Personal Income, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT High Case Real Personal Income, Southcentral-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT High Case Real Personal Income, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT High Case MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Basic Employment, Parts I & 2, 1996 DOT High Case MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Petroleum Revenues, 1996 DOT High Case MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Miscellaneous Variables, 1996 DOT High Case Petroleum Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT High Case Fish Processing Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT High Case Timber Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT High Case Military Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT High Case Federal Civilian Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT High Case Mining Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT High Case Projection Summary, 1996 DOT Low Case Employment by Sector, 1996 DOT Low Case Private Employment, Employment, 1996 DOT Low Case Government Employment, 1996 DOT Low Case Population Change, 1996 DOT Low Case Population Components, 1996 DOT Low Case State Unrestricted General Fund Revenues, 1996 DOT Low Case State Government Miscellaneous Variables, 1996 DOT Low Case Permanent Fund, 1996 DOT Low Case Local Governn1ent Revenues, 1996 DOT Lo\\ 1 Case Components of Real Personal Income, 1996 DOT Low Case Price Indexes, 1996 DOT Low Case Population by Labor Market Area, 1996 DOT Low Case Total Employment by Labor Market Area, 1996 DOT Low Case Wage and Salary Employment, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Low Case Wage and Salary Employment, Southcentral-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Low Case Wage and Salary Employment, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Low Case Population, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Low Case Population, Southcentral-lnterior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Low Case Population, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Low Case Number of Households, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Low Case Number of Households, Southeentral-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Low Case Number of Households, Urban Census Areas, 1996 DOT Low Case Econon1ic/J)e1nographic Projections ISER, March 97

Real Personal Income, State and Southeast, 1996 DOT Low Case Real Personal Income, Southcentral-Interior and Western Arctic, 1996 DOT Low Case Real Personal Incon1e, Urban Census Areas, 1996 D01' L,ow Case MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Basic Employment, Parts 1 & 2, 1996 DOT Low Case MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Petrnleum Revenues, 1996 DOT Low Case MAP State Model Scenario Assumptions, Miscellaneous Variables, 1996 DOT Low Case Petroleum Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Low Case Fish Processing Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Low Case Timber Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Low Case Military Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Low Case Federal Civilian Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Low Case Mining Employment by DOT Region, 1996 DOT Low Case Econon1ic/De111ographic Projections ISER, March 97

Institute of Social and Economic Research November 1996 ASSUMPTIONS FOR LONG-RUN ALASKA ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS PREPARED FOR THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION NOVEMBER 1996 BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE ICE96LI HIGH CASE ICE96H) A. PETROLEUM PRICE AND PRODUCTION ASSUMPTIONS (See graph at end of section) 1. Average Lower 48 North Slope Crude Price 11996 $) About $16.50 on average over entire projection period, based on Alaska Department of Revenue Fall 1996 Scenario IDOR.S97M) Not explicitly defined; see fiscal assumptions Not explicitly defined; see fiscal assumptions 2. Production 5 percent annual decline rate -. 734 million barrels per day in 2010 and.396 million barrrels per day in 2020 (DOR.S97MI Not explicitly defined; see fiscal assumptions Not explicitly defined; see fiscal assumptions B. BASIC INDUSTRY ASSUMPTIONS B. 1. Petroleum 1. Trans-Alaska Pipeline Operating constant. spending employment remains Construction-related declines to maintenance level after 1997 ITAP.S97MI Same as base Same as base 2. North Slope Petroleum Development and Production Employment falls through 1996. It subsequently remains constant at 3,200 as marginal fields, requiring more labor, are brought into production and enhanced recovery methods continue to be applied at Prudhoe Bay IONS.S96MI Employment gradually declines to 2, 750 in 2000 and subsequently remains constant at that level (0NS.S95L) Employment increases through the 1990s and remains constant at 4,600 after 2000 as marginal fields, requiring more labor, are brought into production and enhanced recovery methods continue to be applied at Prudhoe Bay IONS.S96H) 3. Cook Inlet Petroleum Production Employment in exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in the Cook Inlet area remains constant at 1.2 thousand IOCl.S95M) Same as base Additional discoveries gradually boost employment to 1.4 thousand (0Cl.S95H) NOTE: Codes in parentheses indicate ISER names for MAP Model SCEN_ case files, and codes in brackets indicate MAP variable names. These are the long-run assumptions. Values may differ in the initial forecast years to reflect short-term conditions. Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 1 November 1996

BASE CASE {CE96Bl LOW CASE {CE96L) HIGH CASE {CE96H) 4. Oil Industry Headquarters Headquarters employment in Anchorage and Fairbanks associated with additional development of North Slope and other fields increases 1 percent annually after falling in the mid- 1990s {OHQ.S94MI After falling in the mid-1980s, employment holds constant at 4.5 thousand {OHQ.S94LI After falling in the mid-1990s, employment grows 2 percent annually {0HQ.S94HI 5. ANWR Exploration in ANWR commences in 1998, but no commercial development occurs {OAW.S92M 41 None Development of a major field in ANWR with production commencing after 2005 and nominal revenues of $450 million to the state {50-50 split with Federal government) {OAW.S92H -5) 6. ocs None None Petroleum development offshore on federal lands in the Bering Sea and Arctic areas commences in the late 1990s {0CS.S92H -71 7. Use of North Slope Gas B.2. Mining Alternative use of North Slope gas results in employment of 1,000 annually after 2005 {ONG.S95M 51 None The "TAGS" pipeline to transport North Slope natural gas to market in Japan is constructed over a 5-year period. Construction begins in 2005. Operations begin in 2010. The line extends from Prudhoe Bay to Valdez and includes compressor stations, conditioning facilities, and a liquefaction plant and marine terminal. Construction employment peaks at 7,202. Operations employment is 1, 130. Construction and operations employment occurs all along the pipeline corridor. The pipeline produces $400 million (nominal $) in state revenue in first year of operation (TAG.S92M -3). 8. Beluga Coal Production None None Development of a 3.5 million ton/year mine for export, beginning in 2002, results in employment of 375 in 2005 and beyond {MBC.S92M -8). 9. Greens Creek Mine Employment at the Greens Creek Silver Mine on Admiralty Island is constant at 250 after reopening in 1996 {MGC.S96MI Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 2 November 1996

BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE ICE96L) HIGH CASE ICE96H) 1 0. Red Dog Mine Employment at the Red Dog Lead-Zinc Mine in the Western Brooks Range increases to 420 in the late 1990s (MRD.S96M) Expansion does not occur IMRD.S92MI Same as base 11. Matanuska Valley Coal None None A coal mine in the Matanuska Susitna Valley begins operation in 1999, employing 250 in the extraction and export of coal to Japan (MWH.S92M -3) 12. AJ Mine Echo Bay Mining Company begins production from this gold mine in Juneau in 1999. Operations employment is 450 (MAJ.S92M -5) Delayed 1 year from base case (MAJ.S92M 61 Same as base 13. Kensington Mine Echo Bay Mining Company begins production from this mine north of Juneau in 1999. Operations employment is 340 IMKN.S92M -5) Exploration only (MKN.S94L -3) Same as base 14. Fort Knox Production from this mine near Fairbanks begins in 1997, employing 250 (MFK.S92M -2) Same as base Same as base 15. Fairbanks Gold Mining Another gold mine in the Fairbanks area opens in late 1990s, employing 200(MFG.S95H+1) None Same as base 16. Other Mining Activity Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases by 3 percent annually from level of 600 in 1994 (MOT.S93M -4) Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases 1 percent annually (MOT.S93L -4) Mining employment net of specifically identified projects increases by 5 percent annually (MOT.S93H -4) 8.3. Agriculture 17. Agriculture Employment in agriculture increases 1 percent annually (AGR.S94M) Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 3 November 1996

BASE CASE ICE96BJ LOW CASE (CE96LJ HIGH CASE ICE96HJ 8.4. Forest Products 18. Logging and Sawmills Logging and milling employment stabilizes at 2.325 thousand in the late 1990s. There is some growth to offset some of the job loss associated with the Sitka and Wrangell mil! closures. There is also some growth in Southcentral IFML.S95MJ Southeast employment declines 1 percent annually, and there is no replacement of Sitka mill jobs. No growth in Southcentral IFML.S95LJ Same as base except Southeast employment increases.5 percent annually starting in late 1990s IFML.S95HJ 19. Pulp Mills The Sitka and Ketchikan mills remain closed. Modest levels of wood products-related manufacturing develop in both communities (FMP.S97M) The Sitka and Ketchikan mills remain closed. A very small wood products industry remains in Ketchikan IFMP.S95LJ The Sitka mill is reconfigured and reopens in 1998. The Ketchikan mill is restructured and opens at a lower employment level than before. Employment is constant (FMP.S96H) 8.5. Seafood 20. Commercial Fish Harvesting Employment in fish harvesting constant at 9.085 thousand ISFH.S95MJ Employment in fish harvesting declines 1 percent annually ISFH.S95L -21 Same as base 21. Commercial Fish Processing 8.6. Federal Government Employment in processing of fisheries harvest remains constant ISFP.S95MJ Employment declines 1 percent annually ISFP.S95LJ Employment grows in the Southwest and Anchorage in the 1990s and is constant thereafter ISFP.S95HJ 22. Federal Military Employment Strength level remains constant after 1995-96 base closures, which include Fort Greely (FMl.S95MJ Strength level generally declines 1 percent annually and Ft. Richardson closed in the late 1990s IFMl.S95LJ Strength level increases 1 percent annually IFMl.S95HJ 23. Federal Civilian Employment After a near-term contraction, employment increases at.25 percent annual rate consistent with the long-term trend since 1960 IFCV.S96MJ After a near-term contraction, employment declines.25 percent annually (FCV.S96L) After a near-term contraction, employment increases at.5 percent annual rate (FCV.S96H) B. 7. Tourism 24. Tourism Index of tourist visitor expenditures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 5 percent through 2000, 4 percent per year through 2010, and then 3 percent. Tourism-related infrastructure development grows 3% annually (TRN.S96M} Index of tourist visitor expenditures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 4, 3, and 2 percent per year. Tourismrelated infrastructure development grows 3o/o annually (TRN.S96LJ Index of tourist visitor expenditures (measuring visitors, days, and real expenditures per visitor day) increases by 7, 5, and 4 percent per year. Tourismrelated infrastructure development grows 3 % annually ITRN.S96HJ Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 4 November 1996

BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) 8.8. International Freight Handling 25. Air Transport Employment Employment at Anchorage and Fairbanks International airports associated with international freight handling grows to 2000 IAIR.S96M) Same as base Like base case but with continued expansion in Anchorage through 2012 IAIR.S96H) B.9. Miscellaneous 26. Electric Projects Construction of Healy Clean Coal Project outside Fairbanks and intertie upgrades in the mid-1990s (HCC.S96M) in the Railbelt Same as base Same as base with additional intertie construction in Glennallen/Valdez (HCC.S96HI 27. Miscellaneous Construction Employment Various primarily federally funded construction projects, such as rural safe water project and environmental cleanup activities at military sites, produce 500 jobs annually in the long term (CON.S96M) Same as base Same as base C. FISCAL ASSUMPTIONS C.1. Revenues 1. Severance Taxes [RPTS) Based on Fall 1996 projections published by Alaska Oepartment of Revenue (DOR.S97M). No change in tax structure Similar to low case projections from Fall 1995 Alaska Dept. of Revenue report (DOR.S97L) Approximately constant in nominal dollars (DOR.S97H) 2. Royalties [RPRVJ See Severance Taxes Similar to low case projections from Fall 1995 Alaska Dept. of Revenue report (00R.S97L} Approximately constant in nominal dollars IDOR.S97H) 3. Bonuses [RPBSJ See Severance Taxes Same as base Same as base 4. Property Taxes [RPPS] See Severance Taxes Same as base Same as base 5. Petroleum Corporate Income Tax [RTCSPXJ See Severance Taxes Same as base Same as base 6. Petroleum Rents [RPENJ Constant at $9 million (nominal) annually Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 5 November 1996

BASE CASE ICE96B) LOW CASE ICE96Ll HIGH CASE (CE96H) 7. Miscellaneous Petroleum Settlement Revenues IRP9X] [EXPF9) Alaska receives $1.65 billion over the period FY 1996 to 2000 in settlement of disputed offshore leases in the Beaufort Sea and in settlement of lawsuits and tax disputes regarding the valuation of North Slope oil. These revenues are allocated between the Constitutional Budget Reserve and the Permanent Fund (WIN. S96M) Same as base Alaska receives $1.8 billion between 1996 and 2000, and $1 00 million annually for the next five years (WIN.S96H) 8. Federal-State Petroleum Related Shared Revenues [RSFDNPXJ Constant at $16 million (nominal) annually Same as base Same as base 9. Personal Income Tax IEXPIT] Reimposed over a 2-fiscal-year period at previous level when state general fund revenue shortfalls would otherwise require significant state budget reductions. Income tax is reimposed prior to the time that Permanent Fund earnings are appropriated to the general fund and also prior to elimination of the Permanent Fund Dividend. Same as base Same as base 10. Large Project Corporate Income Taxes [RTCSXJ Zero Same as base Same as base 11. Miscellaneous Local Revenue Sources IRL TX],[RLPTXJ. IRLTFPXJ Miscellaneous state-local transfers, large project property taxes, new petroleum-related federal transfers all set to zero Same as base Same as base 12. New Federal State Shared Revenues IRSFDNX] Zero Same as base Same as base 13. Agency Transfers IAHFC, AIDEA) IRMISXJ $100 million contributed to general fund annually $75 million annual contribution Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 6 November 1996

BASE CASE {CE96B) LOW CASE {CE96L) HIGH CASE {CE96H) C.2. State Appropriations 14. Aggregate Appropriations [EXWIND] [EXRL5] Annual appropriation equals current revenues plus funds in Constitutional Budget Reserve, but not to exceed nominal prioryear expenditure level Same as base Same as base 15. Capital/ Operations Split [EXSPLITX] 90 percent operations; 10 percent capital Same as base Same as base 16. General Obligation Bonds [EXCPSGOB] Bond sales for capita! expenditures occur at a rate which maintains annual debt service payments at a level no more than 5 percent of current state revenues Same as base Same as base 17. Federal Grantsin-Aid {Capital and Operating) [RSFDNJ Growth rate slightly above USCPI Same as base Same as base 18. State Loan Programs [EXKTR1Xl [EXLOAN2] [EXCPSR1] AHFC, AIDEA, and other programs function on existing capitalization Same as base Same as base 19. Municipal Capital Grants [RLTMCAP] None None None 20. State-Local Revenue Sharing [RLTRS] Continuation proportional to total state expenditures Same as base Same as base 21. State-Local Municipal Assistance [RLTMA] Gradual phase-out Same as base Same as base 22. Permanent Fund /Other Special Appropriations in Excess of Spending Limit [EXPFCONXJ [EXGFOPSX] [EXSPCAP] None None None Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 7 November 1996

BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96Hl C.3. Permanent Fund 23. Permanent Fund Principal [EXPF11 Deposits from petroleum revenues continue at current rates; inflation proofing eliminated when complete withdrawal of nominal earnings commences. Same as base Same as base 24. Permanent Fund Dividend [EXPFDISTI Continued at the rate of 50 percent of earnings averaged over the previous 5 years. After personal income tax is reimposed, dividend is gradually reduced to 25 percent of earnings (cut by half) but not completely phased out. Dividend gradually reduced to 12.5 percent of earnings (cut by three-fourths) Dividend gradually reduced to 37.5 percent of earnings (cut by one-fourth) 25. Permanent Fund Earnings [EXPFTOGFI After payment of the dividend, the remaining Fund earnings {inflation proofing and undistributed income) are added to the corpus of the Permanent Fund. After the personal income tax is reimposed, a gradually increasing share of the earnings are diverted to the genera! fund. Inflation proofing is eventually eliminated. Same as base Same as base 26. Total Real Rate of Return [ROR + RORPPFI 5 percent - This compares to the 5 percent time-weighted historical cash income realized rate of return 4 percent 6 percent C.4. Miscellaneous 27. State-Local Wage Rates [EXWRI Real wage reduced 10 percent over 7 years Real wage reduced 1 O percent over 4 years Real wage reduced 5 percent over 3 years 28. Local Property Tax Rates IRLPTRATE] Increase 10 percent after 2000 Same as base Same as base 29. Federal Costof-Living Adjustment Added to Federal Wages and Salaries [PCOLART] Declines from 25 to 15 percent over the period 1999 to 2003-2 percent annually Same as base Declines to 20 percent over same period Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 8 November 1996

BASE CASE (CE96B) LOW CASE (CE96L) HIGH CASE (CE96H) D. NATIONAL VARIABLE ASSUMPTIONS 1. U.S. Inflation Rate [GRUSCPI] 3. 5 percent - Long-term rate consistent with Alaska Dept. of Revenue petroleum price forecast (DOR.S97M) 3.5 percent - Long-term rate consistent with Alaska Dept. of Revenue petroleum price forecast IDOR.S97L) 3.5 percent - Long-term rate consistent with Alaska Dept. of Revenue petroleum price forecast {DOR.S97H) 2. U.S. Real Average Weekly Earnings [GRRWEUS] Growth in real average weekly earnings averages 0 percent annually Growth in real average weekly earnings averages -.2 percent annually Growth in real average weekly earnings averages.2 percent annually 3. U.S. Real Per Capita Income [GRDIRPUJ Growth in real per capita income averages 1 percent annually in excess of real average weekly earnings.8 percent 1.2 percent 4. U.S. Unemployrnent Rate [UUSJ Long-run rate averages 6.5 percent Long-run rate averages 6.25 percent Long-run rate averages 6. 75 percent E. PERSONAL INCOME 1. Exxon Valdez Settlement [PITRANXI Alaska residents receive $1 billion in settlements between 1998 and 2003 Same as base Same as base F. REGIONAL ASSUMPTIONS 1. Population Regional population growth allocated on the basis of existing population and employment growth except for increasing share of Greater Anchorage population growth allocated to Mat-Su Borough Same as base Same as base 2. Employment No significant shifts in the location of support industries except for increasing share of Greater Anchorage support activity to Mat-Su Borough Same as base Same as base Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 9 November 1996

BASE CASE ICE96B) LOW CASE ICE96Ll HIGH CASE ICE96H) FISCAL SCENARIO SUMMARY Income Tax Reinstated [EXPIT] 2000 1998 2003 Permanent Fund Stepdown Initiated [EXPFDIST] 2002 2000 2006 Permanent Fund Earnin gs Transferred to Genera! Fund [EXPFTOGF] 2001 1999 2007 Wage Rate Reduction for Govt. Workers Initiated [EXWR] 1998 1998 2001 Institute of Social and Economic Research Page 10 November 1996

POPULATION IN THOUSANDS SOUTH WESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 413.7 53.7 301.7 58.3 1980 419.8 56.0 304.1 59.7 1981 433.8 57.7 315.0 61. 1 1982 463.4 59.5 338.9 65.0 1983 495.6 62.2 365.7 67.8 1984 522.0 63.5 389.4 69.1 1985 541.3 64.7 406.1 70.6 1986 547.6 64.9 411.8 71.0 1987 537.8 64.1 402.0 71.6 1988 531.0 64.1 394.9 72.1 1989 534.4 65.4 396.0 73.0 1990 550.0 69.0 406.0 75.1 1991 569.6 71. 1 422.3 76.2 1992 587.6 72.2 435.9 79.5 1993 598.3 72.4 446.5 79.4 1994 602.9 72.7 453.1 77.1 1995 603.5 73.2 452.9 77.4 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

POPULATION IN THOUSANDS, PART A. POPULATION IN THOUSANDS, PART B. NORTH WEST NORTH ARCTIC NOME YUKON- FAIRBANKS SOUTHEAST BRISTOL MATANUSKA SLOPE BOROUGH KOYUKUK FAIRBANKS WADE BETHEL DILLINGHAM BAY ALEUTIAN SUSITNA ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- HAMPTON BOROUGH ISLANDS BOROUGH 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 4.5 4.8 6.7 7.6 57.7 5.8 1978 1980 4.2 5.1 6.8 8.2 56.9 6.0 1979 4.6 10.7 4.6 1. 1 8.0 18.4 1981 4.3 5. 1 7.0 8.4 58.8 6.1 1980 4.9 11. 5 4.9 1. 1 8.1 18.6 1982 4.6 5.4 7.2 8.7 62.8 6.4 1981 5.0 11. 7 5.0 1.2 8.7 19.9 1983 4.9 5.6 7.7 9.1 66.9 6.7 1982 5.3 12. 1 5.3 1.2 8.3 23.1 1984 5.2 5.7 7.9 9.2 69.5 7.1 1983 5.4 12.8 5.5 1.3 8.5 28.0 1985 5.4 5.9 8.1 9.3 72.0 7.1 1984 5.5 13.0 5. 7 1.3 8.5 33.6 1986 5.4 5.9 8.1 9.4 73.1 7.0 1985 5.6 13. 1 5.8 1.4 8.6 37. 7 1987 5.5 6.1 8.2 9.4 72.4 6.9 1986 5.6 13. 1 6.0 1.4 8.7 40.0 1988 5.6 6.1 8.2 9.4 72.4 6.8 1987 5.9 13.3 6. 1 1.4 8.4 39.1 1989 5.6 6.0 8.3 9. 1 74.0 6.3 1988 6.0 13.4 6.1 1.4 8.3 38.D 1990 6.0 6. 1 8.3 8.5 77.7 5.9 1989 5.9 13.8 5.9 1.4 9.2 38.9 1991 6.2 6.2 8.5 8.5 80.7 6.0 1990 5.8 13.7 5. 7 1.4 11.9 39.7 1992 6.5 6.5 8.8 8.6 81.5 6.1 1991 6.1 14.0 5.9 1.5 11.9 41.9 1993 6.6 6.5 8.8 8.4 83.2 6.2 1992 6.3 14.3 6.0 1.6 12. 1 44.1 1994 6.8 6.6 8.9 8.3 83.3 6.3 1993 6.4 14.5 6.1 1.6 11.7 46.0 1995 6.9 6.6 8.9 8.2 81.8 6.5 1994 6.6 14.9 6.1 1.3 8.2 47.4 1995 6.6 15.3 6.2 1.2 8.2 49.0 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

POPULATION IN THOUSANDS, PART C. KENAI SKAGWAY- POPULATION IN THOUSANDS, PART D. ANCHORAGE PENINSULA KODIAK VALDEZ- YAKUTAT- HAINES PRINCE OF BOROUGH CORDOVA ANGOON JUNEAU SITKA WRANGELL- WALES- KETCHIKAN ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- PETERSBURG KETCHIKAN 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 180.2 25.8 10.6 8.9 3.3 1.7 1978 1980 182.5 26.4 10.2 8.4 3.6 1.8 1979 18.9 7.7 6. 1 4.2 11.8 1981 188.5 27.6 10. 1 8.6 3.6 1.8 1980 20.5 8.1 6.4 4.0 11.8 1982 201.3 31. 1 12.6 8.7 3.7 1.9 1981 21.3 8.1 6.6 4.2 12.0 1983 216.2 33.1 13.0 9.0 3.9 1.9 1982 22.4 7.9 6.8 4.4 12.3 1984 226.2 38.3 13.2 8.8 3.9 2.1 1983 24.0 8.0 7. 1 4.8 12.5 1985 233.9 40.6 13.5 8.8 3.9 2.0 1984 25.3 8.0 6.9 5.0 12.4 1986 235.1 41.6 13.5 8.8 3.9 2.0 1985 26.0 8.1 6.9 5. 1 12.6 1987 228.0 40.9 13.5 8.7 4.0 2.0 1986 26.0 8. 1 6.8 5.2 12.7 1988 222.9 39.9 13.7 8.7 4.1 2.0 1987 25.0 8.3 6.8 5.4 12.8 1989 221.9 40. 1 13.7 8.8 4.1 2.1 1988 24.6 8.3 6.8 5.6 12.6 1990 226.3 40.8 13.3 9.9 4.4 2.1 1989 25. 1 8.3 6.7 5.9 13.3 1991 235.9 42.2 13.0 10.0 4.4 2.2 1990 26.8 8.6 7.0 6.3 13.8 1992 245. 1 43.2 14.5 10.2 4.5 2.2 1991 27.6 8.9 7.2 6.6 14.3 1993 251.8 43.4 14.4 10.3 4.5 2.3 1992 28.1 9.0 7.3 6.6 14.5 1994 255.4 44.8 15.0 10.4 4.5 2.3 1993 28.1 9.0 7.2 6.7 14.5 1995 253.6 46.1 14.6 10.5 4.5 2.3 1994 28.3 8.9 7.2 6.7 14.7 1995 28.8 8.9 7.2 6.8 14.8 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

PERSONAL INCOME IN MILLIONS SOUTH ~ES TERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 197D 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 4947.1 7DD.O 3708.7 538.4 1980 5541.5 811.3 4129.5 600.7 1981 6431.0 897.7 4869.6 663. 7 1982 7703.6 1012.5 5953. 1 738.0 1983 8750.2 1129.6 6801.8 818. 7 1984 9059.5 1115.7 7123.7 820.1 1985 9805.1 1227.8 7675.2 902.1 1986 9694.7 1264.8 7487.2 942.7 1987 9298.9 1279.6 7061. 1 958.1 1988 9719.5 1385.8 7274.8 1059.0 1989 10741.1 1485.3 8075. 1 1180.7 1990 11549.8 1624.6 8700.4 1224.8 1991 12281.8 1675.4 9294.2 1312.1 1992 12933.2 1728.9 9825.3 1379.0 1993 13688.0 1800.6 10440.2 1447.2 1994 14186.7 1864.0 10845.6 1477.1 1995 SOURCE' MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

PERSONAL INCOME IN MILLIONS, PART A. PERSONAL INCOME IN MILLIONS, PART B. NORTH WEST NORTH ARCTIC NOME YUKON- FAIRBANKS SOUTHEAST BRISTOL MATANUSKA SLOPE BOROUGH KOYUKUK FAIRBANKS WADE BETHEL DILLINGHAM BAY ALEUTIAN SUSITNA ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- HAMPTON BOROUGH ISLANDS BOROUGH 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 62.2 32.8 50.8 70.5 654.5 44.6 1978 1980 73.8 39.3 57.4 76.6 713. 7 47.5 1979 20.8 66.1 39.8 19.9 91.3 191.2 1981 99.0 48.1 65.0 84.5 830.7 54.6 1980 24.6 79.6 47.7 20.3 93.9 216.1 1982 99.3 54.6 74.8 96.8 1026.2 63.4 1981 27.5 92.0 53.0 20.7 100.2 276.4 1983 96.1 59.1 86.0 108.0 1147.1 70.0 1982 31.4 107.6 55. 1 23.7 103.8 355.8 1984 118.6 61. 7 89.4 104.8 1149.9 72.4 1983 32.2 124.4 62.7 24.5 109.4 452.7 1985 116.4 66.6 96.9 106.3 1226.7 77.9 1984 33.5 124.2 61. 7 25.4 104.3 504.0 1986 103.8 67.2 98.2 105.5 1162.9 80.4 1985 39.9 135.0 77.5 30.7 122.8 543.6 1987 102.5 67.4 98.8 100.7 1131. 1 74.1 1986 45.6 142.0 80.4 33.3 138.7 537.8 1988 108.3 71.9 102.4 107.0 1164.3 77.0 1987 47.5 141.8 79.9 30.3 146.7 502.3 1989 130.1 78.3 108.6 110.8 1276.9 81.4 1988 50.8 153.9 93.0 34.1 168.5 505.3 1990 140.3 89.0 114.4 118. 7 1342.8 88.4 1989 55.3 163.7 95.1 38.6 174.3 553.7 1991 147.3 95.0 119.7 127.8 1430.3 93.2 1990 59.3 177.6 98.4 39.0 199. 7 615.1 1992 149.3 102.8 129.3 136.9 1528.8 97.3 1991 58.9 189.8 118.0 42.3 222.5 672.0 1993 162.5 112.5 138.7 142.6 1604.0 102.3 1992 59.8 202.8 120.9 43.6 241.6 709.6 1994 178.5 115. 1 145.8 145.4 1650. 1 107.4 1993 66.4 224.6 125. 1 44.4 231.0 765.3 1995 1994 68.5 230.4 130.5 45.2 2D6.7 813.7 1995 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

PERSONAL INCOME IN MILLIONS, PART C. KENAI SKAGWAY PERSONAL INCOME IN MILLIONS, PART D. ANCHORAGE PENINSULA KOOIAK VALDEZ- YAKUTAT- HAINES PRINCE OF BOROUGH CORDOVA ANGOON JUNEAU SITKA YRANGELL- WALES- KETCHIKAN --------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- PETERSBURG KETCHIKAN 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 2368. 7 299.8 131. 1 103. 1 33.1 17.6 1978 1980 2634.7 343.2 138.7 123.1 37.3 21.6 1979 296.2 98.1 70.4 35.7 148.8 1981 3111. 7 400.8 130.9 138.1 39.6 24.7 1980 342.4 103.7 86.0 43.5 176.7 1982 3805.6 480.3 156.0 156.8 50.4 30.1 1981 396.5 116.2 90.8 49.3 180.6 1983 4357.6 543.3 188.1 159.4 59.4 33.7 1982 454.8 121. 1 94.7 55.5 205.9 1984 4591.9 578.1 167.3 156.5 52.8 35.0 1983 511.5 124.4 108.8 62.1 229.6 19B5 4896.8 677.8 181.7 180.5 55.3 39.1 1984 522.3 121.3 95.8 63.7 224.8 1986 4801.2 655.2 198.6 179.2 64.5 44.5 1985 550.9 137.0 125.0 71.8 248. 7 1987 4496.8 620.0 210.0 169.3 67.4 49.8 1986 536.2 153.2 130.0 76.4 259.9 1988 4585.5 674.8 240.8 196. 1 74.4 58.9 1987 530.2 152.0 139.6 75.2 265.5 1989 5048.0 791.4 301.1 248.5 79.8 65.6 1988 549.1 171.6 158.6 84.9 288.3 1990 5488.9 855.0 268.9 229.5 95.1 52.4 1989 600.4 172.7 152.6 97.1 317.0 1991 5853.9 909.9 277.6 248.3 98.2 52.7 1990 639.3 191.9 166.6 113. 1 366.1 1992 6197.6 934.6 284.4 265.0 102.0 50.9 1991 678.2 193.1 170.3 109.3 373.6 1993 6597.4 1002.5 295.9 272.2 106.1 54.7 1992 716.9 198.5 170.1 108.6 381.8 1994 6855.1 1043.6 310.0 276.6 102. 1 57.1 1993 743.4 204.7 173.4 113. 1 405.1 1995 1994 784.5 207.5 179.5 114.6 418.6 1995 SOURCE' MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE' MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

WAGES AND SALARIES IN MILLIONS SOUTH YESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 197D 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199D 6933.6 945.4 4964.6 1023.6 1991 7280.1 966.D 5228.2 1085.9 1992 7618.9 1011. 1 5502.9 1104.9 1993 7940.6 1034. 7 5725.0 1180.9 1994 8210.0 1047.6 5929.3 1233. 1 1995 8256.5 1083.D 5896.7 1276.8 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

YAGES AND SALARIES IN MILLIONS, PART A. WAGES AND SALARIES IN MILLIONS, PART B. NORTH WEST NORTH ARCTIC NOME YUKON- FAIRBANKS SOUTHEAST BRISTOL MATANUSKA SLOPE BOROUGH KOYUKUK FAIRBANKS WADE BETHEL DILLINGHAM BAY ALEUTIAN SUSITNA ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- HAMPTON BOROUGH ISLANDS BOROUGH 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- 1971 197D 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 1978 1980 1979 1981 1980 1982 1981 1983 1982 1984 1983 1985 1984 1986 1985 1987 1986 1988 1987 1989 1988 1990 401.2 64.6 73.7 64.2 748.2 34.3 1989 1991 418. 7 68.8 71.5 63.7 779.1 35.1 199D 23.5 104.5 54.4 28.3 139.9 176. 7 1992 386.4 74.2 76.8 67.1 853.0 34.8 1991 25.0 104.7 59.4 29.9 169.9 201.7 1993 428.1 78.4 80.8 69.8 854.D 37.3 1992 24.7 112.7 64.1 32.8 190.D 218.8 1994 476.8 82.3 86.9 85.3 874.6 48.3 1993 26.6 127.4 66.D 31.5 192.1 237.0 1995 485.2 86.5 90.9 96.9 904.7 45.1 1994 28.0 13D.1 67.3 33.3 170.9 264.9 1995 27.8 135.5 68.5 35.1 177.4 283.6 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

WAGES AND SALARIES IN MILLIONS, PART C. WAGES AND SALARIES IN MILLIONS, PART 0. KENAI SKAGWAY- ANCHORAGE PENINSULA KODIAK VALDEZ- YAKUTAT- HAINES PRINCE OF BOROUGH CORDOVA ANGOON JUNEAU SITKA WRANGELL- WALES- KETCHIKAN ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- PETERSBURG KETCHIKAN 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 1978 1980 1979 1981 1980 1982 1981 1983 1982 1984 1983 1985 1984 1986 1985 1987 1986 1988 1987 1989 1988 1990 3389.5 406.3 129.1 149.7 58.4 23.1 1989 1991 3575.3 421.5 134.8 155.0 58.0 21.3 1990 403.6 103.8 68.6 61.5 226.4 1992 3743.5 426.8 137.0 165.0 61.5 18.6 1991 425.5 106.7 72.0 59.7 222.8 1993 3913.5 455.7 144.9 162.9 56.9 21. 7 1992 456.8 110.9 74.8 60.4 228.2 1994 4036.0 469.3 148.9 159.4 54.1 21.6 1993 465.9 113. 7 79.4 61.2 235.9 1995 3999.9 418.6 157.3 160.5 55.2 22.0 1994 489.0 101.5 81.2 61.0 239.3 1995 509.3 103.0 73.0 65.6 254.8 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS SOUTH WESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 197D 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 166.4 25. 1 116.3 25. 1 1980 168.9 26.6 117.2 25. 1 1981 184. 1 27.1 128.8 28.2 1982 198.3 27.7 141.4 29.2 1983 211.3 28.5 151.8 31.1 1984 22D.8 28.7 161.4 30.7 1985 226.1 29.4 166. 1 30.7 1986 216.9 29.2 158.D 29.7 1987 2D6.D 29.1 148.7 28.2 1988 21D.8 30.9 149.9 30.0 1989 223.D 32.5 158.5 32.0 199D 233.9 34.2 165.9 33.8 1991 238.7 33.3 170.7 34.6 1992 242.4 33.8 174.1 34.5 1993 248.8 34.2 178.2 36.4 1994 254.9 34.7 182.8 37.3 1995 257.9 35.5 184.7 37.8 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS, PART A. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS 1 PART B. NORTH WEST NORTH ARCTIC NOME YUKON- FAIRBANKS SOUTHEAST BRISTOL MATANUSKA SLOPE BOROUGH KOYUKUK FAIRBANKS WADE BETHEL DILLINGHAM BAY ALEUTIAN SUSITNA ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- HAMPTON BOROUGH ISLANDS BOROUGH 197D ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 5.5 1.4 2.2 2.7 21. 1 1.2 1978 1980 6.1 1.4 2.1 2.5 20.9 1.1 1979 0.9 3.7 1. 7 1.0 3.1 3.1 1981 8.8 1.8 2_2 2.6 22.9 1. 1 1980 1.0 3.6 1.6 0.8 3.3 3.3 1982 9.6 1. 9 2.2 2.8 24.8 1.2 1981 1. 1 3.5 1.7 0.8 3.4 3.7 1983 10.3 1.7 2.4 2.9 26.0 1.3 1982 1. 1 3.6 1.7 0.9 3.2 4.4 1984 9.6 1.8 2.6 3.0 27.7 1.4 1983 1.1 4.0 1. 7 1.0 3.4 5.4 1985 9.4 1.8 2.8 2.6 28.9 1.3 1984 1.3 3.9 1.9 1.0 3.1 6.5 1986 7.9 1.8 2.7 2.5 27.3 1.5 1985 1.3 4.0 1.9 1. 1 3.2 7.0 1987 6.6 1.7 2.7 2.3 25.5 1.4 1986 1.3 3.9 1.9 1.2 3.4 6.7 1988 6.7 1.8 2.8 2.5 25.5 1.3 1987 1.4 4.0 2.0 0.9 3.6 6.2 1989 7.1 2.0 2.8 2.5 26.4 1.4 1988 1.4 4.2 2.3 1.0 4.3 6.2 1990 7.6 2.2 2.9 2.6 26.9 1.4 1989 1.6 4.4 2.4 1.3 4.6 6.5 1991 7.6 2.2 2.9 2.5 27.6 1.4 1990 1.4 4.6 2.4 1.1 5.3 7.1 1992 6.9 2.2 3.0 2.6 29.1 1.4 1991 1.4 4.5 2.4 1. 1 6.4 7.9 1993 7.4 2.3 3. 1 2.8 29.3 1.5 1992 1.4 4.6 2.6 1.1 6.8 8.3 1994 8.2 2.5 3.2 2.8 30.0 1.6 1993 1.5 5. 1 2.7 1. 1 7.1 8.7 1995 8.1 2.5 3.3 3.1 30.4 1.6 1994 1.5 5.3 2.7 1. 1 6.2 9.6 1995 1.5 5.5 2.7 1.1 6.2 10. 1 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

YAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS, PART C. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IN THOUSANDS, PART D. KENAI SKAGYAY- ANCHORAGE PENINSULA KODIAK VALDEZ- YAKUTAT- HAINES PRINCE OF BOROUGH CORDOVA ANGOON JUNEAU SITKA YRANGELL- YA LES- KETCHIKAN ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- PETERSBURG KETCHIKAN 1970 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1971 1970 1972 1971 1973 1972 1974 1973 1975 1974 1976 1975 1977 1976 1978 1977 1979 77.5 8.1 4.8 3.3 1.4 0.4 1978 1980 78.2 8.4 4.6 3.5 1.3 0.6 1979 10.4 3.9 2.4 1.2 5.3 1981 86.2 9. 1 4.4 3.8 1.5 0.5 1980 10.8 3.7 3.0 1.3 5.8 1982 95.1 9.9 4.4 3.9 1.6 0.6 1981 11.5 3.7 2.8 1.5 5.6 1983 102.7 10.4 4.9 3.7 1.6 0.6 1982 12.2 3.4 2.6 1.5 5. 7 1984 108.4 11.4 4.9 3.7 1.5 0.7 1983 12.8 3.3 2.6 1.5 6.0 1985 110.9 12.2 4.7 3.7 1.4 0.7 1984 13.4 3.3 2.4 1. 7 5.7 1986 105.6 11.4 5.0 3.5 1.6 0.9 1985 13.6 3.3 2.5 1.8 6.0 1987 99.6 10.8 4.7 3.4 1.6 1.0 1986 12.8 3.4 2.5 1.8 6.2 1988 100.0 11. 1 4.8 4.0 1.6 1.2 1987 12.5 3.3 2.6 1.7 6.4 1989 103.4 13. 1 5.3 5.7 1.9 1.3 1988 12.7 3.7 2.8 2.0 6.9 1990 110.0 13.9 5. 7 4.7 2.2 1.0 1989 13.5 4.0 2.6 2.1 7.2 1991 113.0 14.4 5. 7 4.6 2. 1 0.9 1990 14. 1 4.1 2.7 2.2 7.9 1992 114. 1 14.5 5.3 4.7 2.2 0.8 1991 14. 1 4.0 2.7 2.2 7.4 1993 116.6 15.5 5.3 4.6 2.1 0.9 1992 14.5 4.0 2.8 2.1 7.4 1994 119. 1 15.8 5.8 4.6 2.1 0.8 1993 14.6 4.1 2.9 2.1 7.6 1995 119.6 16. 1 6.1 4.6 2.1 0.8 1994 15.3 3.8 2.9 2. 1 7.7 1995 15.8 3.8 2.7 2.2 8.0 SOURCE: MAP MODEL DATABASE SOURCE: MAP MOCEL DATABASE INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

TABLE 1. PROJECTION SUMMARY TABLE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE WAGE AND PERSONAL PETROLEUM INFRA- STATE/LOCAL POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL SALARY INCOME REVENUES TOTAL TOTAL BASIC STRUCTURE SUPPORT GOVERNMENT (000) CDOO) EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (MILLION (MILLION EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (000) (000) 1995 $) 1995 $) ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1961 94.319 59.223 11.578 15.829 8.200 1961 236.7 94.3 56.9 2522. 1 16.4 1970 133.396 64.383 17.691 33.302 18.439 1970 308.5 79.1 133.4 92.5 5074.8 3087.0 1980 211.359 73.371 30.070 69.827 36.290 1980 419.8 131.5 211.4 170.0 9005.2 4182.6 1981 227.675 77.835 33.287 77.186 38.568 1981 434.3 227.7 185.4 9668.0 5511.1 1982 243.531 78.203 37.454 85.383 41.549 1982 464.3 243.5 199.8 10940.8 5612.5 1983 257.453 78.144 41.097 93.192 44.100 1983 499.1 257.5 212.8 12260.0 4837.2 1984 267.671 78.779 42.482 100.000 46.411 1984 524.0 267.7 222.5 12483.7 4353.3 1985 274.402 79.602 41. 724 103.877 49.199 1985 543.9 274.4 228.1 13159.5 4077.8 1986 264.156 80.137 35.259 99.959 48.806 1986 550.7 264.2 218.7 12915.3 3854.8 1987 253.996 81.011 31.922 94.545 46.519 1987 541.3 254.0 208.0 12457.1 2007.6 1988 258. 138 83.441 28.347 99.157 47.194 1988 535.0 258.1 212.1 12764.2 3009.1 1989 272.844 86.288 33.937 103.944 48.842 1989 538.9 272.8 225.0 13567.5 2554.1 1990 283.577 89.101 34.372 109.105 51.000 1990 553.1 188.9 283.6 236.2 13618.4 2786.7 1991 291.187 93.053 35.406 111.247 51.482 1991 569.6 291.2 241.0 13728.0 3660.3 1992 35.767 114.062 52.721 1992 587.6 245.8 13985.3 2910.0 1993 38.130 118.446 52.860 1993 598.3 251.2 14303.3 3158.2 1994 39.156 123.986 52. 774 1994 602.9 256.8 14518.9 1995 53.484 1995 603.5 259.8 14488.0 1996 306.697 86. 741 37.690 128.475 53.304 1996 610.8 216.4 306.7 261.8 15139.0 2417.7 1997 305.576 86.984 36.816 129.919 51.241 1997 609.6 216.8 305.6 260.8 15382.1 2653.8 1998 307.019 88.012 37.122 131. 740 50.145 1998 611.8 218.2 307.0 262.2 15642.8 1823.8 1999 311.681 88.810 37.830 134. 777 50.264 1999 621.7 222.2 311.7 266.4 16014.2 1741.0 2000 316.058 89.509 38.361 137.546 50.642 2000 635.2 227.4 316.1 270.4 16305.3 1658.1 2001 316. 781 90.397 38.243 137.271 50.870 2001 644.2 231.0 316.8 271.1 16505.4 1466.2 2002 318.208 91.113 38.601 137.090 51.405 2002 651.4 234.0 318.2 272.4 16406.7 1323.1 2003 320.152 91. 799 39.211 137. 720 51.422 2003 658.7 237.1 320.2 274.1 16476.4 1244.3 2004 322.201 92.405 39.128 138.823 51.844 2004 666.1 240.1 322.2 276.0 16615. 7 1147.9 2005 323.711 93.132 38.805 139. 783 51.991 2005 672.8 242.9 323.7 277.4 16732.3 1053.7 2006 327.176 93.880 39.253 141.855 52.188 2006 681.3 246.2 327.2 280.6 17029.2 977.6 2007 330.806 94. 750 39. 755 143.916 52.385 2007 691.0 249.9 330.8 283.9 17261.4 914.3 2008 335.928 95.743 40.504 146.875 52.807 2008 702.5 254.2 335.9 288.5 17621.1 859.1 2009 340.398 96.660 41.092 149.456 53.191 2009 714.5 258.7 340.4 292.6 17898.6 808.1 2010 345.912 97.700 41.890 152. 718 53.604 2010 727.5 263.6 345.9 297.6 18286.3 774.9 2015 373.592 101.693 46.515 169.726 55.658 2015 796.7 289.1 373.6 322.7 20246.3 622.4 2020 401.900 105.713 50.808 188.143 57.236 2020 865.6 314.6 401.9 348.3 22402.9 464.1 2025 433.260 110.216 54.799 209.221 59.025 2025 938.6 341.8 433.3 376.6 24840.6 351.8 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. HOUSEHOLDS CHH) IS JULY 1 (EXCEPT IN 1980), CENSUS DEFINITION. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT CEM99) INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY AND PROPRIETORS PRE 1985 PROPRIETOR DEFINITION. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT CEM97) IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. PERSONAL INCOME CDF.PIB) IS US BEA DEFINITION. PETROLEUM REVENUES CDF.RP9S) INCLUDES PERMANENT FUND CONTRIBUTION ANO WINDFALLS. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT CEM99). BASIC EMPLOYMENT CEM9BASE) INCLUDES EXOGENOUS COMPONENTS OF CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, TRANSPORTATION, MINING, PETROLEUM, TOURISM, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISH HARVESTING. INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT CEM9INFR) INCLUDES TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES, ENDOGENOUS CONSTRUCTION, AND BUSINESS SERVICES NET OF EXOGENOUS AND TOURISM RELATED TRANSPORTATION. SUPPORT EMPLOYMENT CEM9SUPRT) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICES, LOCAL MANUFACTURING, AND PROPRIETORS NOT ENGAGED IN FISH HARVESTING, NET OF TRADE ANO SERVICE TOURISM EMPLOYMENT ANO BUSINESS SERVICES. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (EMGA) INCLUDES STATE ANO LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

TABLE 3. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT {THOUSANDS) TABLE 4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT {THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE MINING TRANS., FEDERAL TOTAL AGRIC., AND CONSTRUC- MANUFAC- COMM., TOTAL MILITARY CIVILIAN STATE LOCAL PRIVATE FORESTRY, PETRO- TION TURING PUB. OTHER ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- FISHERIES LEUM UTIL. 1961 56.300 32.500 15.600 4.600 3.600 --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1970 66.975 31.425 17.111 1D.363 8.D76 1961 38.019 4.434 1.193 4.053 5.145 7_034 16.671 1980 76.009 22.003 17.716 15.360 20.930 1970 66.421 4.819 2.994 6.893 7.838 9_ 109 35.187 1981 78.495 22.451 17.476 16.606 21.962 1980 135.350 8.284 6.684 10.637 13.977 17.086 76.881 1982 81.292 22.103 17.640 18.007 23.542 1981 149.180 9.042 8.911 12.903 13.953 18.239 85.334 1983 84.098 22.267 17.731 18.860 25.240 1982 162.239 10.017 8.840 16. 750 12.625 18.398 94.667 1984 87.065 22.579 18.075 19.305 27.106 1983 173.355 9.871 8.181 20. 766 11.891 18.601 103.125 1985 89.839 23.073 17.567 20.469 28.730 1984 180.606 10.446 8. 703 20.336 11.289 18.893 110.941 1986 89.590 22.953 17.831 20.184 28.622 1985 184.563 10.106 9.513 18.609 12.109 18.685 115.541 1987 88.852 24.447 17.886 18.731 27. 788 1986 174.566 10.127 9.080 13.372 12.603 17.952 111.437 1988 89.132 24.064 17.874 19.382 27.812 1987 165.144 9.811 8.788 10_086 12.873 17.766 105.821 1989 91.624 24.564 18.218 20.675 28.167 1988 169.006 9.521 9.591 8.965 15.204 17.389 108.337 1990 92.861 23.132 18.729 21.474 29.526 1989 181.220 10.036 10.247 9.798 15.667 21.336 114.304 1991 95.543 25.139 18.922 21.434 30.048 1990 190. 716 10.153 11.475 10.503 17.182 20.622 120.782 1992 96.739 24.460 19.558 21.883 30.838 1991 195.644 10.313 11. 762 10.565 17.997 21-767 123.241 1993 97.212 24.355 19.997 21.529 31.331 1992 10.481 10.253 18.009 22.615 126.912 1994 91.634 20.119 18.741 21.572 31.202 1993 10.031 11. 745 17.095 22-899 131.409 1995 90.693 19.633 17.576 21.422 32.062 1994 10.271 12. 778 16.623 23.373 137.967 1995 9.815 13.003 17.023 22-909 141.884 1996 88.824 18.420 17.100 21.271 32.033 1997 86. 111 18.270 16.601 19.902 31.338 1996 217.873 10.391 9.615 13.500 15.715 23.598 145.054 1998 85.058 18.270 16.642 19.277 30.869 1997 219.464 10.397 9.873 12.500 15.678 23.983 147.035 1999 85.218 18.270 16.684 19.237 31.027 1998 221.961 10.403 10.236 11. 750 15.670 24.444 149.457 2000 85.638 18.270 16.726 19.314 31.328 1999 226.463 10.409 10.501 11.540 15.797 25-033 153.182 2001 85.908 18.270 16. 768 19.269 31.601 2000 230.420 10.416 10.967 11.103 15.816 25.521 156.599 2002 86.485 18.270 16.809 19.366 32.039 2001 230.873 10.422 11.224 11.291 15.801 25.514 156.621 2003 86.543 18.270 16.851 19.349 32.072 2002 231. 724 10.428 11.291 11. 776 15. 794 25.621 156.813 2004 87.008 18.270 16.894 19.472 32.372 2003 233.609 10.435 11.360 12.243 15. 799 25.848 157.924 2005 87.196 18.270 16.936 19.526 32.465 2004 235.193 10.441 11.430 11. 793 15.809 26. 155 159.565 2006 87.436 18.270 16.978 19.652 32.536 2005 236.515 10.448 11.5D1 11.245 15.818 26.44D 161.D63 2DD7 87.676 18.27D 17.D21 19.755 32.63D 20D6 239.74D 1D.454 11.574 11.179 15.838 26.9D7 163.789 2DD8 88.14D 18.27D 17.D63 19.98D 32.826 2DD7 243.131 1D.461 11.647 11.365 15.854 27.318 166.486 2DD9 88.567 18.270 17.1D6 2D.172 33.D19 2D08 247.789 1D.468 11.822 11.576 15.880 27.869 17D.174 2D10 89.D22 18.270 17.149 2D.365 33.239 2D09 251.832 10-475 11.998 11.680 15.898 28.332 173.449 2015 91.292 18.27D 17.364 21. 136 34.522 2D10 256.889 10.482 12.275 11.802 15.925 28.917 177.490 2020 93.D88 18.27D 17.582 21.364 35.871 2D15 282.300 1D.517 13.D81 13.074 16.D54 31.699 197.875 2D25 95.D97 18.27D 17.8D3 21.441 37.584 2D2D 308.812 10.554 13.523 13.743 16.190 34. 734 220.D68 2D25 338.163 10.594 14.0D6 13.657 16.337 38.140 245.429 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATEO OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. PRIVATE {EMPVT) IS ALL NON-GOVERNMENT SPLIT BY ADOL CATEGORIES. AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERIES {EMAFF) {INCLUDES PROPRIETORS IN FISHING). MINING ANO PETROLEUM {EMP9). CONSTRUCTION {EMCN). MANUFACTURING {EMM9). TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES {EMTCU). OTHER {EMSUP) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICE, AND PROPRIETORS NOT INVOLVED IN FISH HARVESTING. TOTAL {EMG9l. MILITARY {EMGM) IS ACTIVE DUTY. FEOERAL CIVILIAN {EMGC). STATE {EMGS) INCLUDES UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA. LOCAL {EMGL). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

TABLE 5. POPULATON CHANGE (THOUSANDS) TABLE 6. POPULATION COMPONENTS (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE COMPONENTS OF CHANGE CIVILIAN ------------------------------------------- TOTAL NON-NATIVE NATIVE MILITARY TOTAL TOTAL NON- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- POPULATION ANNUAL NATURAL MILITARY MILITARY 1961 236.669 70.366 CHANGE INCREASE MIGRATION MIGRATION 197D 308.500 68.038 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 198D 419.80D 309.985 64.1D3 47.639 1961 236.669 6.269 6.260 1.822-1.782 1981 434.300 319.357 67.800 48.6D9 197D 3D8.500 13.94D 5.860 11.239-3.199 1982 464.300 348.280 69.20D 47.855 1980 419.800 6.1DD 7.729 2.142-3.n1 1983 499.100 380.240 71.10D 48.21D 1981 434.300 14.50D 8.174 6.288 D.038 1984 524.000 401.991 73.100 48.886 1982 464.300 3D.OOD 9.008 22.663-1.671 1985 543.900 418.265 75.10D 49.955 1983 499.100 34.80D 9.866 25.5D3 -D.569 1986 550.700 423.015 76.90D 49.695 1984 524.000 24.90D 10.374 14.788 -D.262 1987 541.300 408.411 78.60D 52.93D 1985 543.900 19.90D 10.694 9.D94 D. 112 1988 535.000 52.1D1 1986 550.700 6.80D 10.446-2.433-1.213 1989 538.900 53.183 1987 541.300-9.400 9.845-21.465 2.220 199D 553.10D 50.083 1988 535.000-6.30D 9.410-13.882-1.828 1991 569.600 54.428 1989 538.900 3.9DD 9.380-5.543 D.D63 1992 587.600 52.958 1990 553.100 14.200 9.634 8.651-4.061 1993 598.300 52.731 1991 569.600 16.5DD 9.599 3.55D 3.302 1994 602.900 43.56D 1992 587.600 18.DDD 9.473 11.042-2.485 1995 603.5DO 42.5D7 1993 598.300 1D.7DO 9.067 2.832-1.238 1994 602.900 4.600 8.571 6.041-10.006 1996 610.767 479.161 91. 725 39.881 1995 603.500 0.600 7.963-5.516-1.867 1997 609.597 475.944 94.097 39.556 1998 611.822 475.758 96.508 39.556 1996 610.767 7.267 10.573-10.637-3.363 1999 621. 705 483.187 98.963 39.556 1997 609.597-1.170 10.369-10.344-1.083 2000 635.190 494.167 101.467 39.556 1998 611.822 2.225 10.194-6.6n -0. 758 2001 644.213 500.630 104.028 39.556 1999 621. 705 9.883 10.136 0.599-0. 758 2002 651.388 505.184 106.648 39.556 2000 635.190 13.485 10.325 4.143-0. 758 2003 658.701 509.811 109.334 39.556 2001 644.213 9.023 10.615-0.709 -D. 758 2004 666.113 514.467 112.09D 39.556 2002 651.388 7.174 10.749-2. 743-0. 758 2005 672.837 518.361 114.920 39.556 2003 658.701 7.313 10.821-2.689-0. 758 2006 681.321 523.938 117.827 39.556 2004 666.113 7.412 10.898-2.686 -D. 758 2007 691.016 530.645 120.816 39.556 2005 672.837 6. 724 10.980-3.154-0. 758 2008 702.505 539.061 123.889 39.556 2006 681.321 8.485 11.042-1.574-0. 758 2D09 714.539 547.934 127.049 39.556 2007 691.016 9.695 11.162-0.624-0. 758 2010 727.542 557.687 130.299 39.556 2008 702.505 11.489 11.318 1.028-0. 758 2015 796.709 609.164 147.989 39.556 2D09 714.539 12.034 11. 528 1.293 -D. 758 2020 865.611 657.743 168.312 39.556 2010 727.542 13.003 11.748 2.112 -D. 758 2025 938.645 707.444 191.645 39.556 2015 796.709 14.385 12.999 2.247-0. 758 2020 865.611 14.843 14.184 1.541-0. 758 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. 2025 938.645 14.941 15.489 0.325-0. 758 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE968, CREATED OCT 1996. NOTE: POPULATION JS EQUAL TO POPULATION JN PRIOR YEAR PLUS MIGRATION AND NATURAL INCREASE. THE SUM OF COMPONENTS DOES NOT EQUAL THE TOTAL DUE TO ROUNDING IN THE ALLOCATION OF MIGRANTS TO INDIVIDUAL COHORTS. POPULATION (POP) JS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. ANNUAL CHANGE JN POPULATION CDELPOP) JS YEAR TO YEAR JULY 1 CHANGE. NATURAL INCREASE (POPNJ9) INCLUDES CIVILIAN AND MILITARY. NON-MILITARY MIGRATION (POPMIG). MILITARY MIGRATION (POPMIGM) INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY PLUS DEPENDENTS. POPULATION (POP) JS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. CIVILIAN NON-NATIVE (CNNTOT). NATIVE (NATTOT) CIVILIAN JS JULY 1 ESTIMATE EXCEPT 1980 JS APRIL 1. MILITARY (MILTOT) JS ACTIVE DUTY PLUS DEPENDENTS. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 5 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 6

TABLE 7. STATE UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 8. STATE GOVERNMENT MISCELLANEOUS VARIABLES (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE REVENUES GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS ITEM: ------------------------------------------------- ITEM: ------------------------------------------- PERMANENT CONST EXPEND I INVESTMENT EARNINGS PERSONAL DEBT FUND BUDGET TURES TOTAL PETROLEUM ENDOG- ------------------- INCOME TOTAL OPERATING CAPITAL SERVICE DIVIDEND RESERVE ENOUS GEN. FUND PER. FUND TAX ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1961 192.9 0.7 0.0 1961 158.3 16.4 138.8 3.1 0.0 40.5 1970 568.4 30.6 0.0 1970 620.2 3510.3 3087.0 292.4 130.9 0.0 106.6 1980 1822.2 120.5 0.0 1980 1880.4 4014.2 3629.2 403.5 173.5 18.9 161.3 1981 7391.8 145.5 0.0 1981 5259.5 5540.6 4937.3 263.9 298.5 41.0 0.0 1982 7983.8 137.4 657.2 1982 4786.3 5791.7 5047.9 286.0 357.5 100.2 0.0 1983 4275.0 201.1 246.9 1983 5385.7 5082.9 4247.9 309.0 372.8 153.3 o.o 1984 4253.3 224.0 213.5 1984 4347.0 4564.9 3860.2 324.0 380.7 0.0 0.0 1985 5067.9 221.9 272.6 1985 4385.2 4266.9 3596. 1 365.2 305.6 0.0 0.0 1986 3641.4 209.9 379.5 1986 3558.0 3955.1 3420.2 283.8 251.0 0.0 0.0 1987 3077.9 198.8 481.2 1987 4659.8 2309.9 1793.9 308.2 207.8 0.0 0.0 1988 2884.2 189.2 547.8 1988 2997.2 2948.8 2493.9 285.3 169.6 0.0 0.0 1989 2934.6 168.6 551.3 1989 2720.5 2290.8 304.4 100.0 25.3 0.0 1990 2845.9 140.7 554.3 1990 2932.8 2487.0 307.9 113.4 24.6 0.0 1991 2666.5 106.8 533.4 1991 3341.2 2885.1 316.3 112.9 27.0 0.0 1992 73.8 517.5 1992 2664.6 2172.7 381. 7 77.9 32.2 0.0 1993 62.6 524.2 1993 3233.3 2817.3 341.6 42. 1 32.3 0.0 1994 34.7 536. 7 1994 1697.9 8.6 41.2 0.0 1995 22.9 531.9 1995 2080.0 35.9 36.5 0.0 1996 2404.1 2254.3 118.6 31.2 601.3 2267.3 1996 2405.8 2007.5 1642.0 313.9 51.6 0.0 0.0 1997 2305.7 2035.3 226. 1 44.2 618.5 2676.7 1997 2228.2 2226.8 1872.4 313.1 41.4 0.0 0.0 1998 2299.5 2025.9 225.1 48.5 622.0 2461.5 1998 2295.2 1821. 1 1460.5 312.3 48.4 0.0 0.0 1999 2282.2 2015.5 223.9 42.8 644.0 2187.4 1999 2278.0 1684.5 1323.1 314.8 46.6 0.0 0.0 2000 2253.0 2004.6 222.7 25. 7 679.3 1852.1 2000 2248.8 1608.6 1246.2 317.2 45.1 0.0 0.0 2001 2236.4 1996.5 221.8 18. 1 651.7 1658.7 2001 2232.0 1902.2 1220.2 557.2 44.0 80.8 242.2 2002 2162.6 1928.4 214.3 19.9 583.0 1631.0 2002 2158.2 2057.3 1096.2 747.4 41.2 172.4 442.9 2003 2172.2 1922.6 213.6 36.0 596.7 1665.3 2003 2167.8 2079.7 1024.5 752.4 39.9 262.8 448.5 2004 2186.5 1918.6 213.2 54.7 541.4 1717.0 2004 2182.0 2113.8 942.0 752. 7 38.6 380.5 449.7 2005 2200.6 1928.2 214.2 58.2 550.8 1769.4 2005 2195.1 2130.2 862.2 752.5 37.3 478.2 450.7 2006 2216.5 1944.2 216.0 56.4 488.3 1822.4 2006 2210.5 2148.4 791.5 757.2 36.2 563;5 454.6 2007 2218.0 1947.4 216.4 54.3 492.8 1876.0 2007 2212.9 2152. 1 737.9 764.9 35.2 614. 1 461.1 2008 2272.4 1997.8 222.0 52.6 424.7 1930.3 2008 2263.6 2208.5 691.4 774.3 34.2 708.5 468.4 2009 2264.9 1992.6 221.4 50.9 425.6 1985.3 2009 2260.3 2203.1 648.6 783.4 33.5 737.5 475.7 2010 2317.4 2041.3 226.8 49.3 354.4 2041. 1 2010 2308.7 2257.6 616.8 792.9 32.6 815.2 483.1 2015 2406.9 2119.7 235.5 51.7 274.6 2332.0 2015 2398.1 2356.0 487.2 846.4 29.1 993.3 525.5 2020 2347.1 2087.4 231.9 27.8 316.7 2410.0 2020 2342.4 2261. 1 358.4 901.6 25.8 975.3 569.4 2025 2333.6 2051.0 227.9 54.7 279.8 1954.9 2025 2329.1 2105.3 267.5 962.1 22.9 852.8 617.4 SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. EXPENDITURES (OF.EXGFB) IS UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES. TOTAL UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND REVENUES CDF.RSGFB). PETROLEUM REVENUES (DF.RP9SG) EXCLUDES PERMANENT FUND ANO CONSTITUTIONAL BUDGET RESERVE PORTIONS. ENDOGENOUS REVENUES (DF.RSENG) IS TOTAL NET OF PETROLEUM AND INVESTMENT EARNINGS. INVESTMENT EARNINGS, GENERAL FUND (DF.RSIG) IS EARNINGS FROM ALL SOURCES DEPOSITED IN THE GENERAL FUND EXCEPT PERMANENT FUND EARNINGS. INVESTMENT EARNINGS, PERMANENT FUND (DF.RSIPG). PERSONAL INCOME TAX (OF.RTIS). TOTAL (OF.APGF) INCLUDES SPECIAL APPROPRIATIONS NOT SEPARATELY REPORTED. OPERATING (DF.APGFO). CAPITAL (OF.APGFC). DEBT SERVICE (DF.EXDSS) INCLUDES ONLY GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT OF STATE. PERMANENT FUNO DIVIDEND (DF.EXTRN). CONSTITUTIONAL BUDGET RESERVE BALANCE - YEAR ENO (DF.BALDF). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 7 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 8

TABLE 9. PERMANENT FUND (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 10. LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE FUND ADDITIONS FROM INTERGOVERNMENTAL TAXES USE OF EARNINGS RESOURCE REVENUES TOTAL ------------------- ----------------------------- CHARGES ----------------------------- ------------------- FUND GENERAL STATE FEDERAL PETROLEUM OTHER AND MISC. EARNINGS SPECIAL BALANCE REVENUE TRANSFERS TRANSFERS PROPERTY PROPERTY OTHER DIVIDEND GENERAL REINVEST FORMULA APPRO --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- FUND BASED PRIATION 1961 o.o 13.7 --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1970 370.7 124.6 15.8 0.0 30.9 98.7 1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 o.o 1980 1371.9 476.3 84.3 107.0 199.3 75.3 429.5 1970 o.o 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1981 1626.9 650.7 105.9 188.8 149.3 77.9 494.6 1980 38.0 0.0 18.9 0.2 553.4 0.0 775.5 1982 2008.1 948.6 82.5 203.2 171. 7 78.0 591.1 1981 128.5 0.0 41.0 46.5 573.9 1341.1 2722.9 1983 2248.6 1106. 7 96.6 162.8 186.3 78.1 618.7 1982 446.9 657.2 100.2 246.4 564.6 1127.8 4529.1 1984 2440.4 1128.7 111.6 326.1 231.0 98.6 690.2 1983 659.3 246.9 153.3 355.0 589.3 559.9 6124.4 1985 2887.0 1217.9 168.7 332.7 249.0 85.3 842.1 1984 713.0 213.5 0.0 477.3 493.1 404.0 7237.3 1986 2656.1 1089.1 85.1 356.7 285. 7 96.8 786.9 1985 861.0 272.6 0.0 576.6 481.7 392.7 8513.2 1987 2601.3 982.9 96.0 339.0 327.2 98.3 755.3 1986 1312.9 379.5 0.0 922.7 434.5 0.0 9703.1 1988 2633.0 1038.7 76.0 330.7 360.6 92.2 702.6 1987 1371.6 481.2 0.0 869.7 213.7 1623.1 10774.6 1989 2693.2 1069.3 97.4 315.6 356.6 105.0 708.7 1988 1009.0 547.8 0.0 466.8 515.3 0.0 11755.0 1990 2575. 7 952.9 106. 1 290.5 318.8 112. 1 708.1 1989 1080.1 551.3 25.3 482.4 263.3 0.0 12226.2 1991 2552.3 946.7 110.0 277.9 311.5 114.3 703.2 1990 1071.4 554.3 24.6 476.6 299.7 0.0 12302.4 1992 2381.2 94.6 277.5 345.4 113.4 703.6 1991 1152.9 533.4 27.0 578.3 449.4 0.0 12853.5 1993 2482.2 130.6 279.1 364.5 125.1 674.6 1992 1121. 0 517.5 32.2 560.5 376.9 0.0 13384.3 1994 261.6 361.1 1993 1286.4 524.2 32.3 696.0 270.5 0.0 14032.7 1995 253.4 367.0 1994 1127.7 536.7 41.2 515.7 0.0 14502.5 1995 1013.0 531.9 36.5 411.2 0.0 14874.9 1996 2539.5 920.6 109.1 264.3 406.8 122.2 716.4 1997 2411.4 864.6 110.9 234.2 370.3 129.2 702.2 1996 1777.3 601.3 0.0 1176.0 296.3 0.0 15690.2 1998 2406.1 861.9 112.2 215.6 392.6 131.6 692.1 1997 1311.6 618.5 0.0 693.1 332.0 0.0 16290. 1 1999 2391.5 860.6 113.5 197.5 403.1 134.4 682.4 1998 1351.0 622.0 0.0 729.0 248.4 0.0 16747.2 2000 2381.1 859.4 114.9 180.3 415.0 138.4 673.2 1999 1388.1 644.0 0.0 744.1 235.1 0.0 17191.8 2001 2377.9 858.0 116.2 166.1 430.5 141.3 665.7 2000 1424.6 679.3 0.0 745.3 235.0 0.0 17623.3 2002 2299.4 830.3 113.9 148.2 429.5 139.1 638.4 2001 1459.8 651.7 80.8 727.3 227.5 0.0 18015.2 2003 2296.4 829.5 115. 2 136.1 439.9 143.5 632.2 2002 1445.1 583.0 172.4 689.7 209.4 0.0 17795.2 2004 2298.7 829.3 116.5 124.6 457.3 144.6 626.4 2003 1472.8 596.7 262.8 613.3 202.9 0.0 18042.3 2005 2296.3 832.6 117.9 114. 1 464.2 146.3 621.1 2004 1492.6 541.4 380.5 570.7 189.6 0.0 18225.7 2006 2297.5 837.2 119.3 103.8 473.4 147.8 616.0 2005 1507.1 550.8 478.2 478.2 175. 7 0.0 18296.8 2007 2299.2 839.3 120.6 94.7 481.9 151. 1 611.6 2006 1512.8 488.3 563.5 461.0 170.8 o.o 18343.7 2008 2315.3 853.4 122.0 86.1 492.5 153.7 607.5 2007 1516.3 492.8 614. 1 409.4 161.6 0.0 18328.4 2009 2317.8 853.5 123.5 78.2 501.2 157.6 603.8 2008 1514.7 424.7 708.5 381.5 153.3 o.o 18277.6 2010 2338.2 867.3 124.9 71.0 513.8 160.7 600.6 2009 1510.1 425.6 737.5 347.1 145.5 o.o 18186.3 2015 2415.9 893.8 132.3 42.5 576.8 181.6 589.0 2010 1502.6 354.4 815.2 333.0 144.7 o.o 18083.0 2020 2493.7 891.8 140.2 23.0 651.0 204.9 582.8 2015 1429.6 274.6 993.3 161.7 123.7 o.o 17042.3 2025 2610.8 889.1 148.6 18.0 737.4 232.2 585.5 2020 1292.0 316.7 975.3 0.0 96.0 0.0 15248.4 2025 1132.6 279.8 852.8 0.0 76.0 0.0 13363.1 SOURCE: ISER MAP MOCEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MOCEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. EARNINGS (DF.RSIP). PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (DF.EXTRN). CONTRIBUTION TO GENERAL FUND (DF.RSIPG). REINVESTED EARNINGS (DF.RSIPPl INCLUDES ALL RESIDUAL EARNINGS AFTER DIVIDEND AND ALLOCATION TO GENERAL FUND. FORMULA-BASED REVENUES (DF.RP7SP). SPECIAL APPROPRIATION REVENUES (DF.XPFCX). FUND BALANCE AT YEAR END (DF.BALPF) INCLUDES EARNINGS RESERVE. TOTAL GENERAL REVENUE (DF.RL99). STATE TRANSFERS (DF.RLT99). FEDERAL TRANSFERS (DF.RLTF). PETROLEUM PROPERTY TAXES (DF.RLPTP). OTHER PROPERTY TAXES (DF.RLPTN). OTHER TAXES (DF.RLOT). CHARGES AND MISCELLANEOUS (DF.RLMC) INCLUDE REVENUES TO SERVICE BONDS. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 9 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 10

TABLE 11. COMPONENTS OF REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 12. PER CAPITA VARIABLES (1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE WAGE AND DIV., TOTAL DISP. STATE AVERAGE SALARY NET RESIDENCE INTEREST, TRANSFERS PERSONAL PERSONAL TOTAL DISPOSABLE GENERAL PERMANENT CIVILIAN PERMANENT PAYMENTS EARNINGS ADJ. RENT INCOME INCOME INCOME INCOME FUND FUND ANNUAL FUND --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- EXPEND. DIVIDEND WAGE BALANCE 1961 2146.0 2406.4 136.8 132.5 120.0 2522.1 2209.8 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1970 4161.5 4533.7 154. 1 405.1 290.5 5074.8 4364.4 1961 10657 9337 0 28750 0 1980 7069.2 7996.4 527.5 775.8 759. 7 9005.2 7559.2 1970 16450 14147 2010 0 35451 0 1981 7817.9 8633.8 663.7 866.0 832.2 9668.0 7949.9 1980 21451 18007 4479 0 37195 1847 1982 8555.0 9452.1 756.8 973.6 1272.3 10940.8 9157.5 1981 22261 18305 12110 0 38259 6270 1983 9311.0 10499.3 834.8 1213.3 1382.1 12260.0 10419.2 1982 23564 19723 10309 1415 38939 9755 1984 9404.1 10769.7 820.5 1344.0 1190.6 12483.7 10562.2 1983 24564 20876 10791 495 39962 12271 1985 9329.5 10929.8 792.0 1472.3 1549.5 13159.5 11353.2 1984 23824 20157 8296 407 38490 13812 1986 8750.8 10471.8 711.9 1508.0 1647.3 12915.3 10978.6 1985 24195 20874 8062 501 37205 15652 1987 8281.1 9906.4 672.6 1509.0 1714.8 12457.1 10564.9 1986 23452 19936 6461 689 36187 17620 1988 8455.1 10065.8 703.8 1549.5 1852.5 12764.2 11228.3 1987 23013 19518 8609 889 35546 19905 1989 9183.9 10735.4 783.9 1641.9 1973.8 13567.5 11780.6 1988 23858 20988 5602 1024 35457 21972 1990 9150.3 10714.0 772.8 1639.0 2038.1 13618.4 11871.9 1989 25176 21860 1023 36610 22687 1991 9191.0 10775.2 775.5 1603.1 2125.7 13728.0 12199.8 1990 24622 21464 1002 34683 22243 1992 9349.3 10903.7 781.8 1600.6 2262.5 13985.3 12463.9 1991 24101 21418 936 34102 22566 1993 9385.6 11006.3 772.0 1642.3 2426.8 14303.3 12795.5 1992 23801 21212 881 33991 22778 1994 9402.2 11084.6 772.1 1748.2 2458.1 14518.9 12954.1 1993 23907 21386 876 33487 23454 1995 9252.1 10980.0 757.3 1735.8 2529.6 14488.0 12928.0 1994 24082 21486 890 33156 24055 1995 24007 21422 881 32288 24648 1996 9413.1 11315.9 812.9 1743.4 2666.3 15139.0 13514.6 1997 9466.1 11371.5 812.2 1789.4 2808.7 15382.1 13708.6 1996 24787 22127 3939 984 32904 25689 1998 9512.7 11418.5 813.0 1837.5 2977.3 15642.8 13942.8 1997 25233 22488 3655 1015 33208 26723 1999 9623.8 11556.1 826.2 1915.3 3148.0 16014.2 14258.6 1998 25568 22789 3751 1017 33210 27373 2000 9705.6 11651.6 814.6 2006.2 3242.8 16305.3 14516.2 1999 25758 22935 3664 1036 33129 27653 2001 9718.2 11665.1 810.4 2086.8 3347.4 16505.4 14326.7 2000 25670 22853 3540 1069 32971 27745 2002 9638.8 11587.7 802.6 2097.0 3315.1 16406.7 14229.2 2001 25621 22239 3465 1012 32972 27965 2003 9682.7 11636.8 805.2 2175.3 3262.4 16476.4 14287.0 2002 25187 21844 3313 895 32636 27319 2004 9721.6 11681.4 806.6 2256.7 3279.5 16615. 7 14401.1 2003 25014 21690 3291 906 32618 27391 2005 9754.9 11704.7 807.4 2331.3 3301. 7 16732.3 14506.8 2004 24944 21620 3276 813 32538 27361 2006 9848.0 11820.1 813.1 2420.3 3401. 9 17029.2 14753.2 2005 24868 21561 3262 819 32494 27193 2007 9951. 7 11937.5 824.5 2517.9 3432.3 17261.4 14945.5 2006 24994 21654 3244 717 32457 26924 2008 10100.7 12104.6 839.3 2625.6 3533.6 17621.1 15248.3 2007 24980 21628 3202 713 32442 26524 2009 10226.3 12247.5 848.2 2740.0 3564.5 17898.6 15481.6 2008 25083 21706 3222 605 32429 26018 2010 10384.3 12424.4 859.5 2861.6 3666. 7 18286.3 15809.6 2009 25049 21666 3163 596 32405 25452 2015 11154.2 13301.0 916.2 3558.3 4120.6 20246.3 17468.6 2010 25134 21730 3173 487 32385 24855 2020 11895.8 14158.0 971.6 4392.3 4655.0 22402.9 19296.8 2015 25412 21926 3010 345 32237 21391 2025 12690.3 15088.3 1032.5 5411.6 5220. 1 24840.6 21356. 1 2020 25881 22293 2706 366 31990 17616 2025 26464 22752 2481 298 31700 14237 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. WAGE AND SALARY PAYMENTS (DF.PIWS) IN NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY JOB CATEGORIES PLUS MILITARY. NET EARNINGS (OF.PINE) IS NET LABOR AND PROPRIETORS' INCOME BY PLACE OF WORK. RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT (DF.PIRAD). DIVIDENDS, INTEREST, AND RENT CDF.PIDIR). TRANSFERS (DF.PITRAN). TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME (DF.PIB). DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME (DF.DPIB) TOTAL INCOME (DP.PIS). DISPOSABLE INCOME (DP.DPIB). STATE GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES (DP.EXGFB). PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (OP.EXTRN). AVERAGE CIVILIAN ANNUAL WAGE (0F.WR97). PERMANENT FUND BALANCE (DP.BALPF). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 11 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 12

TABLE 13. PRICE INDEXES 1996 DOT BASE CASE INFLATION ANCHORAGE AN CH/US RATE ANCH CPl-W PRICE LEVEL CPl-W (PERCENT> ----------- ----------- ----------- 1961 35.4 1.46 0.8 1970 42.1 1.34 3.5 1980 86.3 1.29 9.2 1981 92.9 1.26 7.7 1982 98.2 1.26 5. 7 1983 98.9 1.23 0.7 1984 102.9 1.24 4.0 1985 105.8 1.23 2.9 1986 107.7 1.23 1.8 1987 107.9 1. 19 0.2 1988 108.3 1.15 0.4 1989 111.3 1. 13 2.8 1990 118.4 1.14 6.4 1991 123.8 1. 14 4.6 1992 128.0 1.15 3.4 1993 132.0 1. 15 3.1 1994 134.8 1. 15 2. 1 1995 138.5 1.15 2.7 1996 143.0 1.14 3.2 1997 147.0 1. 14 2.8 1998 151.8 1. 14 3.3 1999 156.8 1. 14 3.3 2000 162.0 1.13 3.3 2001 167.4 1.13 3.3 2002 178.4 1. 17 6.6 2003 184.3 1. 16 3.3 2004 190.4 1.16 3.3 2005 196.7 1. 16 3.3 2006 203.2 1.16 3.3 2007 209.9 1.15 3.3 2008 216.8 1.15 3.3 2009 224.0 1. 15 3.3 2010 231.4 1.15 3.3 2015 272.2 1. 14 3.3 2020 320.1 1.13 3.3 2025 376.4 1. 11 3.3 SOURCE' ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96B, CREATED OCT 1996. ANCHORAGE CPI (PDANCPI) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS (1982-1984 = 100). ANCH/US PRICE LEVEL (PDRATIO) IS THE RATIO OF ANCHORAGE ANO US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX LEVELS. INFLATION RATE CG.ANCPI). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 13

TABLE 15. POPULATION BY LABOR MARKET AREA (THOUSANDS) TABLE 16. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY LABOR MARKET AREA (THOUSANDS) ANCH/MATSU SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH GULF COAST SOUTHWEST TOTAL ANCH/MATSU SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH GULF COAST SOUTHWEST TOTAL ---------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- 1961 1961 1970 1970 1980 201.1 56.0 71.0 16. 1 45.0 30.5 419.8 1980 1981 208.4 57.7 73.3 16.4 46.3 31.6 433.8 1981 1982 224.4 59.5 77.8 17.2 52.4 32.1 463.4 1982 1983 244.1 62.2 82.6 18. 1 55.1 33.4 495.6 1983 1984 259.8 63.5 85.8 18.8 60.3 33.9 522.0 1984 1985 271.5 64.7 88.3 19.4 63.0 34.4 541.3 1985 1986 275.1 64.9 89.6 19.4 63.9 34.8 547.6 1986 1987 267.0 64.1 88.7 19.8 63.1 35.1 537.8 1987 1988 260.9 64.1 88.6 19.8 62.3 35.3 531.0 1988 1989 260.8 65.4 89.4 19.9 62.6 36.2 534.4 1989 1990 266.0 69.0 92.1 20.4 64.1 38.5 550.0 1990 138.8 38.5 42.5 13. 1 29.3 19.0 281.2 1991 277.7 71. 1 95.2 20.9 65.2 39.3 569.6 1991 143.8 37.5 44.5 13.0 29.7 20.2 288.8 1992 289.2 72.2 96.1 21.8 68.0 40.2 587.6 1992 1993 297.8 72.4 97.9 21.9 68.0 40.2 598.3 1993 1994 302.9 72.7 97.9 22.3 70.2 37.0 602.9 1994 1995 302.7 73.2 96.5 22.4 71.2 37.5 603.5 1995 1996 305.9 74.1 96.2 22.7 73.3 38.6 610.8 1996 153.7 41.9 43.4 13.3 33.1 19.3 306.7 1997 306.5 74.0 94.3 22.7 73.5 38.6 609.6 1997 153.6 41.8 42.8 13.3 33.0 19.1 305.6 1998 308.7 74.3 93.6 22.9 73.7 38.6 611.8 1998 154.7 42.1 42.7 13.4 33.0 19. 1 307.0 1999 314.9 75.9 94.4 23.0 74.6 38.9 621.7 1999 157.5 43.1 42.9 13.5 33.4 19.2 311. 7 2000 322.8 77.6 95.9 23.3 76.2 39.5 635.2 2000 160.2 43.8 43.3 13.6 33.8 19.3 316.1 2001 327.3 78.8 96.8 23.6 77.5 40.1 644.2 2001 160.5 44.0 43.3 13.6 34.0 19.3 316.8 2002 331.0 79.8 97.6 23.9 78.5 40.6 651.4 2002 161.3 44.2 43.5 13.7 34.2 19.4 318.2 2003 335.0 80.7 98.4 24.2 79.4 41.1 658.7 2003 162.4 44.5 43.7 13.7 34.4 19.4 320.2 2004 339.1 81.8 99.2 24.4 80.0 41.5 666.1 2004 163.7 44.9 43.9 13.7 34.5 19.5 322.2 2005 342.8 82.7 100.0 24. 7 80.7 42.0 672.8 2005 164.5 45.1 44.1 13.8 34.6 19.6 323.7 2006 347.8 83.7 100.9 25.0 81.6 42.4 681.3 2006 166.6 45.6 44.5 13.8 34.9 19.7 327.2 2007 353.5 84.8 101.9 25.3 82.7 42.8 691.0 2007 168.8 46.1 44.9 14.0 35.3 19.7 330.8 2008 360.5 86.1 103. 1 25.6 84.0 43.2 702.5 2008 171.8 46.7 45.4 14.4 35.7 19.9 335.9 2009 367.6 87.5 104.4 26.0 85.4 43.7 714.5 2009 174.4 47.3 45.9 14.6 36.2 20.0 340.4 2010 375.4 88.9 105.8 26.4 86.8 44.2 727.5 2010 177. 7 48.0 46.5 15.0 36.7 20.1 345.9 2015 417.4 96.4 113.0 28.6 94.4 46.8 796.7 2015 194.7 51.4 49.3 16.1 39.2 20.8 373.6 2020 460.1 104.0 120.0 30.6 101. 7 49.3 865.6 2020 212.7 55.0 52.2 16.7 41.9 21.5 401.9 2025 506.5 111.9 126.8 32.4 109.5 51.4 938.6 2025 232.8 59.0 55.3 17.4 44.8 22. 1 433.3 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATIOll CE96BR, CREATED OCT 1996. ANCH/MATSU (PL.ANCMS). SOUTHEAST (PL.SEAST). INTERIOR (PL.INTER). NORTH (PL.NORTH). GULF COAST (PL.GULF). SOUTHWEST (PL.SWEST). TOTAL (PCEN.ST). ANCH/MATSU (ML.ANCMS). SOUTHEAST (ML.SEAST). INTERIOR (ML.INTER). NORTH (ML.NORTH). GULF COAST (ML.GULF). SOUTHWEST (ML.SWEST). TOTAL (MCEN.ST). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 15 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECOllOMIC RESEARCH Page 16

TABLE 1. PART A WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE STATE SOUTHEAST -------------------------------- -------------------------------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 261.8 186.5 75.3 37.1 28.5 1997 260.8 185.7 75.1 37.1 28.4 1998 262.2 186.6 75.6 37.4 28.6 1999 266.4 189.9 76.5 38.3 29.5 2000 270.4 192.9 77.5 38.9 30.0 2001 271.1 193.2 77.9 39.1 30.2 2002 272.4 194.0 78.4 39.3 30.4 2003 274.1 195.2 78.9 39.6 30.6 2004 276.0 196.6 79.4 40.0 30.9 2005 277.4 197.5 79.9 40.2 31.1 2006 280.6 199.8 80.7 40.6 31.4 2007 283.9 202.1 81. 7 41. 1 31.8 2008 288.5 205.4 83.1 41.7 32.3 2009 292.6 208.3 84.3 42.2 32.7 2010 297.6 211.8 85.9 42.9 33.2 2015 322.7 229.9 92.8 46.1 35.8 2020 348.3 248.8 99.6 49.4 38.5 2025 376.6 269.6 107.1 53.0 41.5 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. STATE TOTAL (M97CE.ST) STATE URBAN (M97CE.SU) STATE RURAL (M97CE.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL CM97CE.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN (M97CE.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL (M97CE.ER) 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.9 9.0 9.1 9. 1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 10.2 10.8 11.5 TABLE 1. PART B WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR WESTERN ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 186.8 151.8 35.1 37.8 6.3 1997 186.2 151.0 35.1 37.6 6.3 1998 187.3 151.8 35.5 37.5 6.2 1999 190.2 154.2 36.0 37.9 6.3 2000 193.4 156.6 36.7 38.2 6.3 2001 193.8 156.7 37.1 38.1 6.3 2002 194.8 157.3 37.5 38.3 6.3 2003 196.2 158.3 37.9 38.4 6.3 2004 197.5 159.4 38.1 38.5 6.3 2005 198.6 160.1 38.4 38.6 6.3 2006 201.0 162.0 39.0 38.9 6.4 2007 203.6 163.9 39.6 39.2 6.4 2008 207.1 166.7 40.4 39.8 6.4 2009 210.2 169.0 41.2 40.2 6.5 2010 214.0 172.0 42.0 40.7 6.5 2015 233.8 187.3 46.5 42.9 6.8 2020 254.4 203.2 51.3 44.5 7.1 2025 277.3 220.7 56.6 46.3 7.3 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR TOTAL (M97CE.CT) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR URBAN (M97CE.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR RURAL (M97CE.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (M97CE.WE) WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (M97CE.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL CM97CE.WR) 31.6 31.3 31.3 31.6 31.9 31.9 32.0 32.1 32.2 32.3 32.5 32.8 33.3 33.7 34.2 36.1 37.5 38.9 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

TABLE 1. PART C TABLE 2. PART A YAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) POPULATION (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS STATE SOUTHEAST ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL 1996 121.4 30.4 16.4 7.9 4.1 6.3 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1997 121.D 30.0 16.4 7.6 4.3 6.3 1996 610.8 406.1 204.7 74.1 53.3 20.8 1998 121.9 29.9 16.9 7.3 4.4 6.2 1997 609.6 404.7 204.9 74.0 53.2 20.8 1999 124. 1 30.1 17.6 7.5 4.4 6.3 1998 611.8 4D5.7 206.2 74.3 53.5 20.8 2000 126.2 30.4 17.9 7.6 4.5 6.3 1999 621. 7 412.8 208.9 75.9 55.D 20.9 2001 126.4 30.3 18. 1 7.6 4.5 6.3 2000 635.2 421.9 213.3 77.6 56.3 21.3 2002 126.9 30.4 18.3 7.6 4.5 6.3 2001 644.2 426.8 217.4 78.8 57.3 21.5 2003 127.7 30.6 18.4 7.7 4.5 6.3 2002 651.4 430.5 220.9 79.8 58.0 21.8 2004 128.6 30.7 18.6 7.7 4.5 6.3 2003 658.7 434.7 224.0 80.7 58.7 22.0 2005 129.3 30.9 18.8 7.8 4.6 6.3 2004 666.1 439.1 227.0 81.8 59.5 22.3 2006 130.9 31.2 19.0 7.9 4.6 6.4 2005 672.8 442.9 229.9 82.7 60.1 22.5 2007 132.5 31.4 19.2 8.0 4.7 6.4 2006 681.3 448.1 233.2 83.7 60.9 22.8 2008 134.8 31.9 19.5 8. 1 4.7 6.4 2007 691.0 454.1 236.9 84.8 61.7 23.1 2009 136.8 32.2 19.8 8.2 4.8 6.5 2008 702.5 461.3 241.2 86.1 62.7 23.4 2010 139.3 32.7 20.1 8.3 4.8 6.5 2009 714.5 468.8 245.7 87.5 63.7 23.7 2015 152.3 34.9 21. 7 8.9 5.2 6.8 2010 727.5 477.0 250.6 88.9 64.8 24.1 2020 166.0 37.2 23.4 9.6 5.6 7.1 2015 796.7 521.0 275.8 96.4 70.6 25.9 2025 181. 1 39.6 25.2 10.3 6.0 7.3 2020 865.6 564.7 301.0 104.0 76.4 27.6 2025 938.6 611.1 327.6 111.9 82.5 29.4 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. YAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. ANCHORAGE CM97CE.13) FAIRBANKS CM97CE.05) JUNEAU CM97CE.19) KETCHKIAN CM97CE.23l SITKA CM97CE.20) KODIAK CM97CE. 15) STATE TOTAL CPCEN.ST) STATE URBAN (PCEN.SU) STATE RURAL CPCEN.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL CPCEN.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN CPCEN.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL CPCEN.ER) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

TABLE 2. PART B TABLE 2. PART C PCPULATION (THOUSANDS) POPULATION (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERJOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 255.5 82.1 29.D 15.4 8.8 15.3 1996 457.5 337.5 119.9 79.2 15.3 64.0 1997 255.0 81.2 29.1 15.0 9.1 15.3 1997 456.3 336.1 120.1 79.3 15.3 64.0 1998 256.2 80.7 29.7 14.6 9.2 15.3 1998 458.2 336.9 121.3 79.3 15.3 64.1 1999 261.0 81.5 30.9 14.8 9.3 15.4 1999 466.0 342.5 123.5 79.8 15.4 64.4 2000 267.2 82.8 31.8 15. 1 9.5 15.6 2000 476.7 350.0 126.7 80.9 15.6 65.3 2001 270.3 83.5 32.5 15.3 9.6 15.7 2001 483.4 353.8 129.5 82.0 15.7 66.3 2002 272.7 84.0 32.9 15.4 9.7 15.8 2002 488.6 356.7 131.9 83.0 15.8 67.2 2003 275.5 84.6 33.3 15.6 9.8 15.9 2003 494.2 360.1 134.1 83.8 15.9 67.9 2004 278.4 85.3 33.8 15.8 9.9 16.0 2004 499.6 363.7 136.0 84.7 16.0 68.7 2005 280.9 85.8 34.2 15.9 10.0 16.1 2005 504.6 366.7 137.9 85.6 16.1 69.4 2006 284.5 86.5 34.6 16. 1 10.1 16.3 2006 511.3 371.0 140.3 86.4 16.3 70.1 2007 288.6 87.4 35. 1 16.4 10.2 16.4 2007 518.9 376.0 142.9 87.3 16.4 70.9 2008 293.8 88.3 35.7 16.6 10.4 16.5 2008 528.2 382.1 146.1 88.2 16.5 71.7 2009 299.0 89.4 36.3 16.9 10.5 16.7 2009 537.8 388.4 149.4 89.3 16.7 72.6 2010 304.8 90.5 37.0 17.1 10.7 16.8 2010 548.2 395.3 152.9 90.4 16.8 73.6 2015 336.2 96.5 40.4 18.6 11.5 17.7 2015 604.0 432.7 171.3 96.3 17.7 78.6 2020 367.6 102.3 43.9 20.1 12.4 18.4 2020 659.9 469.9 190. 1 101.7 18.4 83.2 2025 401.4 108.0 47.6 21.6 13.3 19.2 2025 720.1 509.4 210.8 106.6 19.2 87.4 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ANCHORAGE (PCEN.13) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: FAIRBANKS (PCEN.05) SOUTHCENTRAL JNTERIOR TOTAL (PCEN.CT) JUNEAU CPCEN. 19) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERJOR URBAN (PCEN.CU) KETCHKIAN (PCEN.23) SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR RURAL (PCEN.CR) SITKA (PCEN.20) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (PCEN.WE) KODIAK (PCEN.15) WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (PCEN.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL (PCEN.WR) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 5 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 6

TABLE 3. PART A TABLE 3. PART B NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (THOUSANDS) NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE STATE SOUTHEAST SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 216.4 149.9 66.4 27.3 19.9 7.3 1996 167_4 125-2 42.2 21. 7 4.9 16.8 1997 216.8 150.0 66.8 27.3 20.0 7.4 1997 167.6 125-1 42.5 21.8 4.9 16.9 1998 218.2 150.8 67.4 27.6 20.2 7.4 1998 168_8 125_8 43.0 21.8 4.9 17.0 1999 222.2 153.8 68.4 28.2 20.7 7.5 1999 172.0 128-1 43.9 22.0 4.9 17. 1 2000 227.4 157.4 70.0 28.9 21.3 7.6 2000 176_ 1 131. 1 45.1 22.4 5.0 17.4 2001 231.0 159.5 71.5 29.4 21.7 7.7 2001 178.9 132-7 46.2 22.7 5. 1 17.7 2002 234.0 161.2 72.9 29.8 22.0 7.8 2002 181.2 134_ 1 47. 1 23. 1 5. 1 18.0 2003 237. 1 163.0 74.0 30.2 22.3 7.9 2003 183.5 135_6 47.9 23.3 5. 1 18.2 2004 240. 1 164.9 75.2 30.6 22.6 8.0 2004 185.8 137.1 48.7 23.7 5.2 18.5 2005 242.9 166.6 76.3 31.0 22.9 8. 1 2005 187.9 138.5 49.5 23.9 5.2 18.7 2006 246.2 168.7 77.5 31.4 23.2 8.2 2006 190.6 140-2 50.3 24.2 5.3 18.9 2007 249.9 171. 1 78.8 31.9 23.6 8.3 2007 193.6 142.2 51.3 24.5 5.3 19.2 2008 254.2 173.9 80.3 32.4 23.9 8.4 2008 197. 1 144.6 52.5 24.8 5.4 19.4 2009 258.7 176.8 81.9 32.9 24.3 8.6 2009 200.7 147 _ 1 53.7 25.1 5.4 19.7 2010 263.6 180.0 83.6 33.4 24.8 8.7 2010 204.7 149.7 55.0 25.4 5.5 19.9 2015 289. 1 196.7 92.3 36.3 27.0 9.3 2015 225.6 164.0 61.6 27.2 5.8 21.4 2020 314.6 213.5 101. 1 39.2 29.2 10.0 2020 246.7 178.3 68.4 28.8 6.0 22.8 2025 341.8 231.4 110.5 42.2 31.6 10.6 2025 269.4 193.5 75.9 30.2 6.3 24.0 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. STATE TOTAL (HHCEN.ST) STATE URBAN (HHCEN.SU) STATE RURAL (HHCEN.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL (HHCEN.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN (HHCEN.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL (HHCEN.ER) SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR TOTAL (HHCEN.CT) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR URBAN (HHCEN.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR RURAL (HHCEN.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (HHCEN.WE) WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (HHCEN.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL (HHCEN-WR) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 7 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 8

TABLE 3. PART C TABLE 4. PART A NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (THOUSANDS) REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS STATE SOUTHEAST ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL 1996 96.1 29.1 11.0 5.8 3.1 4.9 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- 1997 96.3 28.8 11. 1 5.7 3.2 4.9 1996 15139 10878 4261 2083 1607 475 1998 97.0 28.8 11.4 5.5 3.3 4.9 1997 15382 11036 4346 2113 1629 484 1999 99.0 29.1 11.9 5.6 3.3 4.9 1998 15643 11215 4428 2144 1651 493 2000 101.5 29.6 12.2 5.7 3.4 5.0 1999 16014 11492 4522 2202 1700 502 2001 102.8 29.9 12.5 5.8 3.4 5. 1 2000 16305 11715 4590 2244 1736 508 2002 103.9 30.2 12.7 5.8 3.5 5. 1 2001 16505 11854 4652 2274 1762 512 2003 105.2 30.4 12.9 5.9 3.5 5. 1 2002 16407 11780 4626 2253 1746 507 2004 106.4 30.7 13.1 6.0 3.5 5.2 2003 16476 11830 4646 2263 1754 509 2005 107.5 30.9 13.3 6.1 3.6 5.2 2004 16616 11929 4686 2285 1m 513 2006 109.0 31.2 13.4 6.2 3.6 5.3 2005 16732 12009 4723 2305 1788 517 2007 110. 7 31.6 13.6 6.2 3.7 5.3 2006 17029 12218 4811 2344 1818 526 2008 112.7 31.9 13.9 6.3 3.7 5.4 2007 17261 12386 4875 2374 1842 532 2009 114.7 32.3 14. 1 6.4 3.8 5.4 2008 17621 12641 4980 2420 1878 542 2010 117.0 32.7 14.4 6.5 3.8 5.5 2009 17899 12843 5056 2455 1906 548 2015 129.0 35.0 15.7 7. 1 4.2 5.8 2010 18286 13118 5168 2503 1945 558 2020 141.2 37.1 17.0 7.7 4.5 6.0 2015 20246 14534 5713 2744 2138 606 2025 154.3 39.3 18.5 8.3 4.8 6.3 2020 22403 16095 6308 3012 2352 660 2025 24841 17865 6975 3315 2595 719 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ANCHORAGE (HHCEN.13) FAIRBANKS (HHCEN.05) JUNEAU (HHCEN.19) KETCHKIAN (HHCEN.23) SITKA (HHCEN.20) KODIAK (HHCEN.15) STATE TOTAL (OF.Pl.ST) STATE URBAN (OF.PI.SU) STATE RURAL (OF.Pl.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL (OF.PI.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN (OF.Pl.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL (OF.PI.ER) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 9 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 10

TABLE 4. PART B TABLE 4. PART C REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 7055 1874 9n 419 217 341 1996 11445 8929 2516 1612 341 1270 1997 7167 1890 985 420 223 350 1997 11623 9057 2566 1646 350 1296 1998 7307 1904 1009 412 230 353 1998 11827 9211 2616 16n 353 1319 1999 7512 1924 1049 416 234 357 1999 12116 9435 2681 1696 357 1339 2000 7676 1943 1076 423 237 360 2000 12353 9619 2734 1708 360 1348 2001 7774 1956 1096 427 240 361 2001 12513 9730 2783 1718 361 1357 2002 7752 1927 1087 423 237 356 2002 12457 9678 2778 1697 356 1341 2003 7793 1927 1093 424 238 356 2003 12520 9720 2799 1694 356 1338 2004 7862 1938 1104 428 240 358 2004 12629 9800 2829 1702 358 1344 2005 7914 1949 1115 431 241 359 2005 12719 9863 2856 1709 359 1350 2006 8060 1977 1135 438 245 364 2006 12953 10037 2916 1732 364 1368 2007 8181 1996 1150 444 248 366 2007 13142 10178 2964 1745 366 1379 2008 8363 2028 1173 452 252 371 2008 13429 10392 3037 1773 371 1401 2009 8511 2051 1192 459 256 374 2009 13657 10562 3095 1787 374 1412 2010 8709 2085 1217 468 261 379 2010 13968 10793 3175 1814 379 1435 2015 9743 2249 1342 512 284 403 2015 15570 11993 3577 1932 403 1529 2020 10886 2429 1480 561 311 428 2020 17339 13315 4024 2052 428 1624 2025 12189 2625 1637 618 341 455 2025 19353 14814 4538 2173 455 1718 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96BR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR TOTAL (OF.Pl.CT) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR URBAN (OF.PI.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR RURAL (OF.Pl.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (OF.PI.WE) WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (OF.Pl.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL (OF.PI.WR) ANCHORAGE (DF.PI.13) FAIRBANKS (OF.PI.OS) JUNEAU (DF.PI.19) KETCHKIAN COF.PJ.23) SITKA (DF.PI.20) KODIAK (DF.PI.15) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 11 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 12

MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 1 MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 2 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE BASIC EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) BASIC EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) HIGH WAGE LOW WAGE HIGH WAGE LOW WAGE AGRI- EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS FISH ACTIVE CIVILIAN CULTURAL PETROLEUM CON- CON- TRANS- MINING MANU- MANU- HARVESTING OUTY FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT STRUCT!ON STRUCTION PORTATION EMPLOYMENT FACTURING FACTURING EMPLOYMENT MILITARY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1980 0.224 6.159 0.468 0.000 1.100 0.526 1980 0.000 11.322 7.620 22.003 17.716 1981 0.320 8.117 1.600 D.000 1.100 0.793 1981 0.000 11.260 7.898 22.451 17.476 1982 0.356 8.085 2.179 0.000 1.100 0. 755 1982 0.000 9.793 8.285 22.103 17.640 1983 0.377 7.443 3.005 0.000 1.100 0.738 1983 0.000 8.934 7.946 22.267 17. 731 1984 0.458 8.048 1.903 0.000 1.000 0.654 1984 0.000 8.058 8.202 22.579 18.075 1985 0.485 8.869 1.222 0.000 0.940 0.644 1985 0.000 8.707 8.357 23.073 17.567 1986 0.512 8.508 0.958 0.000 0.885 0.571 1986 0.000 9.473 8.450 22.953 17.831 1987 0.495 8.063 0.382 0.000 0.860 0.725 1987 o.ooo 9.941 8.361 24.447 17.886 1988 0.525 8.620 0.272 0.000 0.876 0.971 1988 0.000 12.104 8.568 24.064 17.874 1989 0.510 9.165 0.240 0.000 0.949 1.082 1989 0.000 12.425 8.820 24.564 18.218 1990 0.567 10.258 0.225 0.000 1.095 1.217 1990 0.000 13.818 8.840 23.132 18.729 1991 0.596 10.541 0.225 0.000 1.299 1.221 1991 14.489 9.080 25.139 18.922 1992 0.664 9.229 0.167 0.000 1.380 1.252 1992 14.865 24.460 19.558 1993 0. 762 8.956 0.173 0.000 1.312 1.075 1993 13.291 24.355 19.997 1994 0.813 9.149 0.473 0.000 1.329 1.122 1994 12.909 20.119 18.741 1995 0.857 8.690 0.434 0.000 1. 125 1995 13.662 19.633 17.576 1996 0.606 8.500 1.665 0. 755 2.840 1. 115 1996 0.000 12.653 9.085 18.420 17.100 1997 0.612 8.545 1.520 0.969 2.900 1.328 1997 0.000 12.603 9.085 18.270 16.601 1998 0.618 8.590 1.525 0.983 2.950 1.646 1998 0.000 12.578 9.085 18.270 16.642 1999 0.624 8. 736 1.650 0.597 3.000 1.765 1999 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.684 2000 0.631 8. 783 1.250 0.512 3.050 2.184 2000 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.726 2001 0.637 8.830 1. 150 0.627 3.100 2.394 2001 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16. 768 2002 0.643 8.877 1. 150 0.643 3.150 2.414 2002 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.809 2003 0.650 8.925 1. 150 0.660 3.150 2.436 2003 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.851 2004 0.656 8.973 1. 150 0.576 3.150 2.457 2004 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.894 2005 0.663 9.022 1. 150 0.594 3.150 2.480 2005 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.936 2006 0.669 9.071 1. 150 0.611 3.150 2.503 2006 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 16.978 2007 0.676 9.121 1.250 0.630 3.150 2.527 2007 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17. 021 2008 0.683 9.271 1.350 0.649 3.150 2.551 2008 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.063 2009 0.690 9.421 1.350 0.668 3.150 2.576 2009 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.106 2010 0.697 9.673 1.350 0.688 3.150 2.602 2010 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.149 2011 0. 704 9.924 1.350 0.709 3.150 2.629 2011 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.191 2012 0. 711 10.177 1.350 0.730 3.150 2.657 2012 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.234 2013 0.718 10.229 1.350 0. 752 3.150 2.685 2013 o.ooo 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.277 2014 0.725 10.283 1.350 0.775 3.150 2.714 2014 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.321 2015 0. 732 10.337 1.350 0.798 3.150 2. 745 2015 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.364 2016 0. 739 10.391 1.350 0.822 3.150 2.776 2016 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.407 2017 0. 747 10.446 1.350 0.846 3.150 2.808 2017 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.451 2018 0. 754 10. 501 1.350 0.872 3.150 2.840 2018 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.494 2019 0. 762 10.557 1.350 0.898 3.150 2.874 2019 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.538 2020 0.769 10.614 1.350 0.925 3.150 2.909 2020 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.582 2025 0.809 10.905 1.350 1.072 3.150 3.100 2025 0.000 12.678 9.085 18.270 17.803 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SB--CREATED OCT 1996 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SB--CREATED OCT 1996 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 3 MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 4 1996 DOT BASE CASE 1996 DOT BASE CASE PETROLEUM REVENUES (MILLION DOLLARS) MISCELLANEOUS VARIABLES STATE TOURISTS STATE STATE STATE STATE CORPORATE VISITING NATIONAL PRODUCTION ROYALTY BONUS PROPERTY PETROLEUM SETTLEMENT ALASKA INFLATION TAX INCOME PAYMENT TAX TAX REVENUE (THOUSAND) RATE REVENUE REVENUE REVENUE REVENUE ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1980 439.000 0.135 1980 506.500 916.700 456.100 168.900 547.500 0.000 1981 447.000 0.102 1981 1170.200 1496.300 10.200 143.000 860.100 0.000 1982 467.000 0.060 1982 1581. 700 1547.600 6. 700 142.700 668.900 0.000 1983 485.000 0.030 1983 1493.700 1472.400 49.400 152.600 236.000 0.000 1984 519.000 0.034 1984 1393.100 1403.500 13.500 131.000 265.100 o.ooo 1985 555.000 0.035 1985 1389.400 1392.600 15.500 128.400 168.600 0.000 1986 583.200 0.015 1986 1107.900 1107.600 46.300 113.500 133.900 460.700 1987 588.480 0.036 1987 648.500 585. 700 0.700 102.500 120.400 85.200 1988 607.900 0.040 1988 818.700 926.400 7.500 96.200 158.000 329.000 1989 645.800 0.048 1989 698.800 807.900 15.200 89.700 166.000 259.700 1990 716.400 0.052 1990 1001.600 996.500 0.000 89.800 117.200 156.800 1991 752.000 0.041 1991 1284.100 1268.800 25.200 85.000 185.100 398.600 1992 805.800 0.029 1992 1053.200 936.500 3.500 69.000 165.500 447.570 1993 826.800 0.028 1993 1017.600 948.400 51.100 66.900 834.700 75.830 1994 919.800 0.025 1994 692.100 682.800 0.800 61.500 17.800 1995 0.029 1995 793.900 837.700 1.300 57.300 128.500 1996 955.500 0.035 1996 787.200 884.200 17.300 55.900 173.700 550.000 1997 1003.275 0.035 1997 906.800 1062.200 17.500 50.900 220.000 530.000 1998 1053.439 0.035 1998 723.400 873.800 18.800 48.400 165.000 140.000 1999 1106.111 0.035 1999 667.000 817.600 20.100 45.800 160.000 230.000 2000 1161.417 0.035 2000 649.200 846.400 21.200 43.200 117.600 230.000 2001 1207.873 0.035 2001 646.300 884.000 22.100 41.100 120.200 25.000 2002 1256. 188 0.035 2002 600.900 864.600 23.000 39.100 118.000 25.000 2003 1306.435 0.035 2003 556.100 863.500 24.000 37.100 115.400 25.000 2004 1358.693 0.035 2004 515.400 829.100 25.000 35.100 112.700 25.000 2005 1413.040 0.035 2005 476.300 788.800 26.000 33.200 110.300 25.000 2006 1469.562 0.035 2006 444.100 761. 700 27.100 31.200 107.300 25.000 2007 1528.344 0.035 2007 418.500 740.800 28.300 29.400 104.800 25.000 2008 1589.477 0.035 2008 398.200 722.300 29.500 27.600 102.500 25.000 2009 1653.056 0.035 2009 379.500 704.400 30.700 25.900 100.400 25.000 2010 1719.178 0.035 2010 374.500 697.600 32.000 24.300 99.300 25.000 2011 1770.753 0.035 2011 361.100 684.400 33.300 22.700 98.300 25.000 2012 1823.875 0.035 2012 361.900 697.600 34.700 21.200 97.400 25.000 2013 1878.591 0.035 2013 350.200 683.500 36.200 19.800 96.600 25.000 2014 1934.948 0.035 2014 338.700 671.900 37.700 18.400 95.800 25.000 2015 1992.996 0.035 2015 332.800 665.800 39.300 17.100 96.100 25.000 2016 2052.785 0.035 2016 325.100 662.400 40.900 15.800 95.800 25.000 2017 2114.368 0.035 2017 315.700 643.300 42.700 14.500 91.800 25.000 2018 2177.798 0.035 2018 304.600 610.100 44.500 13.300 89.600 25.000 2019 2243.131 0.035 2019 295.400 586.000 46.300 12.100 87.600 25.000 2020 2310.425 0.035 2020 286.300 564.500 48.300 10.900 85.600 25.000 2025 2678.411 0.035 2025 241.000 490.000 53.000 10.000 80.000 25.000 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SB--CREATED OCT 1996 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SB--CREATED OCT 1996 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

PETROLEUM EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART A. FISH PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART DOT BASE A. BY CENSUS AREA DOT BASE BY CENSUS AREA SOUTH WESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT SOUTH WESTERN STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION 1996 8.9 o.a 5.9 3.D ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1997 8.9 0.0 5.9 3.0 1996 10. 1 1.7 2.D 6.4 1998 9.0 0.0 6.D 3.0 1997 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 1999 9.2 0.0 6.0 3.2 1998 10. 1 1. 7 2.0 6.4 2000 9.3 0.0 6.1 3.2 1999 10. 1 1. 7 2.0 6.4 2001 9.3 0.0 6.1 3.2 20DO 10. 1 1. 7 2.0 6.4 2002 9.4 0.0 6.1 3.2 2001 10.1 1. 7 2.0 6.4 2003 9.4 0.0 6.2 3.2 2002 10. 1 1. 7 2.0 6.4 2004 9.5 0.0 6.2 3.2 2003 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2005 9.5 0.0 6.3 3.2 2004 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2006 9.6 0.0 6.3 3.2 2005 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2007 9.7 0.0 6.4 3.3 2006 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2008 10.0 0.0 6.5 3.5 2007 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2009 10. 1 0.0 6.5 3.6 2008 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2010 10.4 0.0 6.6 3.8 2009 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2011 10.6 0.0 6.6 4.0 2010 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2012 10.9 0.0 6.7 4.2 2011 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2013 10.9 0.0 6.7 4.2 2012 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2014 11.0 0.0 6.8 4.2 2013 10.1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2015 11. 0 0.0 6.9 4.2 2014 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2016 11. 1 0.0 6.9 4.2 2015 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2017 11. 1 0.0 7.0 4.2 2016 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2018 11.2 0.0 7.0 4.2 2017 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2019 11.3 0.0 7.1 4.2 2018 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2020 11.3 0.0 7. 1 4.2 2019 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2025 11.6 0.0 7.4 4.2 2020 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 2025 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 SOURCE: MAP HODEL INPUT SCENARIO OT96SBRX--CREATEO FALL 96 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX--CREATED FALL 96 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

TIMBER EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART A. MILITARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART A. DOT BASE DOT BASE BY CENSUS AREA BY CENSUS AREA SOUTH WESTERN SOUTH WESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DDT REGION DOT REGION REGION STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 1996 18.4 0.7 16.4 1.3 1997 2.5 1.9 0.6 0.0 1997 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 1998 2.5 1.8 0.6 0.0 1998 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 1999 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 1999 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2000 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 20DO 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2001 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2001 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2002 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2002 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2003 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2003 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2004 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2004 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2005 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2005 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2006 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2006 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2007 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2007 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2008 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2008 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2009 2.6 1.9 0.6 D.O 2009 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2010 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2010 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2011 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2011 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2012 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2012 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2013 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2013 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2014 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2014 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2015 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2015 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2016 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2016 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2017 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2017 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2018 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2018 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2019 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2019 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2020 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2020 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 2025 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 2025 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 SOURCE: MAP MOOEL INPUT SCENARIO OT96SBRX CREATED FALL 96 SOURCE: MAP MOOEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATEO FALL 96 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (THOLSANOS), PART MINING EMPLOYMENT (THOLSANOS), PART A. A. OOT BASE DOT BASE BY CENSUS AREA BY CENSUS AREA SOLTH IJESTERN SOLTH WESTERN TOTAL SOLTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT TOTAL SOLTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 1.3 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 0.3 0.4 0.5 1996 17. 1 1.9 14. 1 1.1 1997 1.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1997 16.6 1.9 13.8 1.0 1998 2.2 0.9 0.6 0.8 1998 16.6 1.9 13.8 1.0 1999 2.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 1999 16. 7 1.9 13.8 1.0 2000 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.6 2000 16. 7 1.9 13.9 1.0 2001 2.4 1.2 0.6 0.6 2001 16.8 1.9 13.9 1.0 2002 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 2002 16.8 1.9 13.9 1.0 2003 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 2003 16.9 1.9 14.0 1.0 2004 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 2004 16.9 1.9 14.0 1.0 2005 2.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 2005 16.9 1.9 14. 1 1.0 2006 2.6 1.3 0.6 0.7 2006 17.0 1.9 14. 1 1.0 2007 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.7 2007 17.0 1.9 14.1 1.0 2008 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.7 2008 17. 1 1.9 14.2 1.0 2009 2.6 1.3 0.7 0. 7 2009 17. 1 1.9 14.2 1.0 2010 2.7 1.3 0.7 0. 7 2010 17. 1 1.9 14.2 1.0 2011 2.7 1.3 0.7 0. 7 2011 17.2 1.9 14.3 1.0 2012 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 2012 17.2 1.9 14.3 1.0 2013 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.7 2013 17.3 2.0 14.3 1.0 2014 2.8 1.3 0.7 0.7 2014 17.3 2.0 14.4 1.0 2015 2.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 2015 17.4 2.0 14.4 1.0 2016 2.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 2016 17.4 2.0 14.4 1.0 2017 2.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 2017 17.5 2.0 14.5 1.0 2018 2.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 2018 17.5 2.0 14.5 1.0 2019 2.9 1.4 0.8 0.7 2019 17.5 2.0 14.6 1.0 2020 3.0 1.4 0.8 0.8 2020 17.6 2.0 14.6 1.0 2025 3.2 1.4 0.9 0.8 2025 17.8 2.0 14.8 1.0 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX--CREATED FALL 96 SOURCE' MAP HODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATED FALL 96 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

TABLE 1. PROJECTION SUMMARY TABLE 2. EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT HIGH CASE 1996 DOT HIGH CASE WAGE AND PERSONAL PETROLEUM INFRA- STATE/LOCAL POPULATION HOUSEHOLDS TOTAL SALARY INCOME REVENUES TOTAL TOTAL BASIC STRUCTURE SUPPORT GOVERNMENT (000) (000) EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (MILLION (MILLION EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT (000) (000) 1995 $) 1995 $) ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1961 94.319 59.223 11.578 15-829 8.200 1961 236.7 94.3 56.9 2522. 1 16.4 1970 133.396 64.383 17.691 33-302 18.439 1970 308.5 79.1 133.4 92.5 5074.8 3087.0 1980 211.359 73.371 30.070 69.827 36.290 1980 419.8 131.5 211.4 170.0 9005.2 4182.6 1981 227.675 77.835 33.287 77.186 38.568 1981 434.3 227.7 185.4 9668.0 5511.1 1982 243.531 78.203 37.454 85.383 41.549 1982 464.3 243.5 199.8 10940.8 5612.5 1983 257.453 78. 144 41.097 93.192 44.100 1983 499.1 257.5 212.8 12260.0 4837.2 1984 267.671 78.779 42.482 100.000 46.411 1984 524.0 267.7 222.5 12483.7 4353.3 1985 274.402 79.602 41. 724 103.877 49.199 1985 543.9 274.4 228.1 13159.5 4077.8 1986 264.156 80.137 35.259 99.959 48.806 1986 550.7 264.2 218. 7 12915.3 3854.8 1987 253.996 81. 011 31.922 94.545 46.519 1987 541.3 254.0 208.0 12457.1 2007.6 1988 258.138 83.441 28.347 99.157 47.194 1988 535.0 258.1 212. 1 12764.2 3009. 1 1989 272.844 86.288 33.937 103.944 48.842 1989 538.9 272.8 225.0 13567.5 2554.1 1990 283.577 89.101 34.372 109.105 51.000 1990 553. 1 188.9 283.6 236.2 13618.4 2786.7 1991 291.187 93.053 35.406 111.247 51.482 1991 569.6 291.2 241.0 13728.0 3660.3 1992 35.767 114.062 52.721 1992 587.6 245.8 13985.3 2910.0 1993 38.130 118.446 52.860 1993 598.3 251.2 14303.3 3158.2 1994 39.156 123.986 52. 774 1994 602.9 256.8 14518.9 1995 53.484 1995 603.5 259.8 14488.0 1996 306.697 86. 741 37.690 128.475 53.304 1996 610.8 216.4 306.7 261.8 15139.0 2417.7 1997 306.723 87. 758 36.913 130.302 51.241 1997 610.5 217.1 306.7 261.9 15436.3 2672.7 1998 310.452 89.860 37.516 133.353 49.723 1998 615. 7 219.5 310.5 265.1 15864.4 2063.6 1999 319.852 92.507 38.683 138.419 50.244 1999 631.1 225.3 319.9 273.5 16488.3 2037.2 2000 327.518 94.450 39.619 143.149 50.300 2000 651.2 232.7 327.5 280.4 16989-3 1935.6 2001 337.022 96. 116 41.123 148.746 51.038 2001 672.8 240.6 337.0 288.8 17603.1 1793.2 2002 344.897 97.389 42.616 153.593 51.299 2002 692.8 248.0 344.9 295.8 18105.8 1774.5 2003 347.357 99.401 42.407 154.150 51.400 2003 707.3 253.5 347.4 297.8 18405.5 1755.0 2004 351.237 102.546 42.234 155.924 50.533 2004 719.6 258.3 351.2 301.1 18565.5 1684.1 2005 362.319 105.896 43.392 161.566 51.466 2005 737.5 264.9 362.3 311.0 19261.4 1668.1 2006 377.209 109.367 45.092 169.071 53.680 2006 762.0 273.8 377.2 324.3 20137.5 1654.8 2007 399.086 114. 755 47.349 179.337 57.646 2007 797.0 286.2 399.1 344.0 21175.2 1678.2 2008 420.167 117.879 49. 776 190.424 62.088 2008 839.4 301.2 420.2 362.8 22308.5 1949.2 2009 434.480 117.662 51.790 198.910 66.119 2009 876.9 314.6 434.5 375.4 23199.0 2109.4 2010 439.701 113.837 53.074 203.549 69.242 2010 902.6 324.1 439.7 379.9 23892.9 2309.3 2015 485.021 119.575 59. 757 233.646 72.043 2015 1010.6 365.0 485.0 419.5 27480.9 2067.8 2020 554.071 127.627 69.983 278.843 77.618 2020 1149.7 417.3 554. 1 480.0 32673.1 1958.8 2025 632.650 137.411 80.384 334.152 80.703 2025 1310.6 478.1 632.7 548.5 39010.6 1659.8 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99). POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. BASIC EMPLOYMENT (EM9BASE) INCLUDES EXOGENOUS COMPONENTS OF HOUSEHOLDS (HH) IS JULY 1 (EXCEPT IN 1980), CENSUS DEFINITION. CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, TRANSPORTATION, MINING, PETROLEUM, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT (EM99l INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY AND PROPRIETORS-- TOURISM, FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, AND FISH HARVESTING. PRE-1985 PROPRIETOR DEFINITION. INFRASTRUCTURE EMPLOYMENT (EM9INFR) INCLUDES TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (EM97) IS ALASKA PUBLIC UTILITIES, ENDOGENOUS CONSTRUCTION, AND BUSINESS SERVICES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. NET OF EXOGENOUS AND TOURISM-RELATED TRANSPORTATION. PERSONAL INCOME (OF.PIS) IS US BEA OEFINITION. SUPPORT EMPLOYMENT (EM9SUPRT) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICES, PETROLEUM REVENUES (DF.RP9Sl INCLUDES PERMANENT FUND CONTRIBUTION LOCAL MANUFACTURING, ANO PROPRIETORS NOT ENGAGED IN FISH HARVESTING, AND WINDFALLS. NET OF TRADE ANO SERVICE TOURISM EMPLOYMENT AND BUSINESS SERVICES. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (EMGA) INCLUDES STATE ANO LOCAL GOVERNMENT. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

TABLE 3. PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) TABLE 4. GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT HIGH CASE 1996 DOT HIGH CASE MINING TRANS., FEDERAL TOTAL AGRIC., AND CONSTRUC- HANUFAC- COMM., TOTAL MILITARY CIVILIAN STATE LOCAL PRIVATE FORESTRY, PETRO- TION TURING PUB. OTHER ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- FISHERIES LEUM UTIL. 1961 56.300 32.500 15.600 4.60D 3.600 --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1970 66.975 31.425 17.111 10.363 8.076 1961 38.019 4.434 1.193 4.053 5.145 7.034 16.671 1980 76.009 22.003 17.716 15.360 2D.930 1970 66.421 4.819 2.994 6.893 7.838 9.109 35.187 1981 78.495 22.451 17.476 16.606 21.962 1980 135.350 8.284 6.684 10.637 13.977 17.086 76.881 1982 81.292 22.103 17.640 18.007 23.542 1981 149.180 9.042 8.911 12.903 13.953 18.239 85.334 1983 84.098 22.267 17. 731 18.860 25.240 1982 162.239 10.017 8.840 16.750 12.625 18.398 94.667 1984 87.065 22.579 18.075 19.305 27.106 1983 173.355 9.871 8.181 20.766 11.891 18.601 103.125 1985 89.839 23.073 17.567 20.469 28.730 1984 180.606 10.446 8.703 20.336 11.289 18.893 110.941 1986 89.590 22.953 17.831 20.184 28.622 1985 184.563 10.106 9.513 18.609 12.109 18.685 115.541 1987 88.852 24.447 17.886 18. 731 27.788 1986 174.566 10.127 9.080 13.3n 12.603 17.952 111.437 1988 89.132 24.064 17.874 19.382 27.812 1987 165.144 9.811 8.788 10.086 12.873 17. 766 105.821 1989 91.624 24.564 18.218 20.675 28.167 1988 169.006 9.521 9.591 8.965 15.204 17.389 108.337 1990 92.861 23.132 18.n9 21.474 29.526 1989 181.220 10.036 10.247 9.798 15.667 21.336 114.304 1991 95.543 25.139 18.922 21.434 30.048 1990 190. 716 10.153 11.475 10.503 17.182 20.622 120. 782 1992 96.739 24.460 19.558 21.883 30.838 1991 195.644 10.313 11. 762 10.565 17.997 21.767 123.241 1993 97.212 24.355 19.997 21.529 31.331 1992 10.481 10.253 18.009 22.615 126.912 1994 91.634 20.119 18.741 21.5n 31.202 1993 10.031 11. 745 17.095 22.899 131.409 1995 90.693 19.633 17.576 21.422 32.062 1994 10.271 12.778 16.623 23.373 137.967 1995 9.815 13.003 17.023 22.909 141.884 1996 88.824 18.420 17.100 21.271 32.033 1997 86.112 18.270 16.601 19.903 31.339 1996 217.873 10.391 9.615 13.500 15. 715 23.598 145.054 1998 84.860 18.453 16.684 19.116 30.607 1997 220.611 10.397 10.218 12.50D 15.731 24.141 147.624 1999 85.648 18.637 16.767 19.230 31.014 1998 225.592 10.403 10.961 11.890 15.961 24.815 151.563 2000 85.975 18.824 16.851 19.164 31. 136 1999 234.204 10.409 12.153 11.698 16.289 25.981 157.673 2001 86.985 19.012 16.935 19.271 31. 767 2000 241.544 10.416 13.213 11.304 16.432 26. 768 163.412 2002 87.521 19.202 17.020 19.206 32.093 2001 250.037 10.422 13.652 11.891 16.583 27.574 169.915 2003 87.899 19.394 17.105 19.145 32.255 2002 257.375 10.428 13.843 12.605 16.626 28.247 175.626 2004 87.311 19.588 17.191 18.826 31. 707 2003 259.458 10.435 14.275 13.098 16.625 28.327 176.699 2005 88.527 19.784 17.277 19.164 32.302 2004 263.925 10.441 15.614 13.160 16.647 28.861 179.202 2006 91.024 19.982 17.363 19.341 34.339 2005 273. 792 10.448 16. 771 13.936 16.706 30.006 185.925 2007 95.277 20.181 17.450 19.660 37.986 2006 286. 185 10.454 18.315 14.663 16.m 31.349 194.629 2008 100.009 20.383 17.537 21.034 41.054 2007 303.809 10.461 19.029 18.200 16.862 32.961 206.296 2009 104.331 20.587 17.625 22.890 43.229 2008 320. 158 10.468 18.708 20.674 16.949 34.528 218.832 2010 107. 748 20. 793 17.713 24.254 44.987 2009 330.149 10.475 18. 772 19.542 17.008 35.803 228.550 2015 112.057 21.854 18.160 26.355 45.688 2010 331.953 10.482 18.748 14.771 17.091 36.658 234.205 2020 119.205 22.968 18.619 29.057 48.561 2015 372.964 10.517 19.075 14.850 17.344 41.304 269.874 2025 123.932 24.140 19.089 30.454 50.249 2020 434.866 10.554 20.149 16.701 17.677 47.539 322.247 2025 508.718 10.594 21.935 17.000 18.048 54.978 386.164 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. PRIVATE CEMPVT) IS ALL NON-GOVERNMENT SPLIT BY ADOL CATEGORIES. AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHERIES (EMAFF) (INCLUDES PROPRIETORS IN FISHING). MINING AND PETROLEUM CEMP9). CONSTRUCTION (EMCN). MANUFACTURING CEMM9). TRANSPORTATION, COMMUNICATIONS, PUBLIC UTILITIES CEMTCU). OTHER CEMSUP) INCLUDES TRADE, FINANCE, SERVICE, AND PROPRIETORS NOT INVOLVED IN FISH HARVESTING. TOTAL (EMG9). MILITARY CEMGM) IS ACTIVE DUTY. FEDERAL CIVILIAN CEMGC). STATE CEMGS) INCLUDES UNIVERSITY OF ALASKA. LOCAL (EMGL). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

TABLE 5. POPULATON CHANGE (THOUSANDS) TABLE 6. POPULATION COMPONENTS (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT HIGH CASE 1996 DOT HIGH CASE COMPONENTS OF CHANGE CIVILIAN ------------------------------------------- TOTAL NON-NATIVE NATIVE MILITARY TOTAL TOTAL NON ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- POPULATION ANNUAL NATURAL MILITARY MILITARY 1961 236.669 70.366 CHANGE INCREASE MIGRATION MIGRATION 1970 308.500 68.038 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1980 419.800 309.985 64.103 47.639 1961 236.669 6.269 6.260 1.822 1.782 1981 434.300 319.357 67.800 48.609 1970 308.500 13.940 5.860 11.239 3.199 1982 464.300 348.280 69.200 47.855 1980 419.800 6.100 7.729 2.142 3.771 1983 499.100 380.240 71.100 48.210 1981 434.300 14.500 8.174 6.288 0.038 1984 524.000 401.991 73.100 48.886 1982 464.300 30.000 9.008 22.663 1.671 1985 543.900 418.265 75.100 49.955 1983 499.100 34.800 9.866 25.503 0.569 1986 550.700 423.015 76.900 49.695 1984 524.000 24.900 10.374 14. 788 0.262 1987 541.300 408.411 78.600 52.930 1985 543.900 19.900 10.694 9.094 0.112 1988 535.000 52.101 1986 550.700 6.800 10.446 2.433 1.213 1989 538.900 53.183 1987 541.300 9.400 9.845 21.465 2.220 1990 553.100 50.083 1988 535.000 6.300 9.410 13.882 1.828 1991 569.600 54.428 1989 538.900 3.900 9.380 5.543 0.063 1992 587.600 52.958 1990 553.100 14.200 9.634 8.651 4.061 1993 598.300 52.731 1991 569.600 16.500 9.599 3.550 3.302 1994 602.900 43.560 1992 587.600 18.000 9.473 11.042 2.485 1995 603.500 42.507 1993 598.300 10.700 9.067 2.832 1.238 1994 602.900 4.600 8.571 6.041 10.006 1996 610.767 479.161 91. 725 39.881 1995 603.500 0.600 7.963 5.516 1.867 1997 610.492 476.839 94.097 39.556 1998 615.689 479.230 96.508 39.952 1996 610.767 7.267 10.573 10.637 3.363 1999 631.056 491.743 98.963 40.351 1997 610.492 0.275 10.369 9.323 1.083 2000 651.174 508.952 101.467 40. 755 1998 615.689 5.197 10.230 4.415 0.370 2001 672.800 527.611 104.028 41.162 1999 631.056 15.367 10.257 5.907 0.374 2002 692.824 544.602 106.648 41.574 2000 651.174 20.118 10.604 10.876 0.378 2003 707.260 555.937 109.334 41.990 2001 672.800 21.626 11.078 11.376 0.382 2004 719.584 565.084 112.090 42.410 2002 692.824 20.024 11.568 9.264 0.385 2005 737.486 579. 733 114.920 42.834 2003 707.260 14.436 11.979 3.079 0.389 2006 761.979 600.890 117.827 43.262 2004 719.584 12.323 12.196 0.577 0.393 2007 797.031 632.521 120.816 43.695 2005 737.486 17.902 12.345 6.177 0.397 2008 839.423 671.403 123.889 44.132 2006 761.979 24.493 12.670 12.945 0.401 2009 876.900 705.278 127.049 44.573 2007 797.031 35.052 13.191 23.521 0.405 2010 902.645 727.327 130.299 45.019 2008 839.423 42.392 14.016 29.911 0.409 2015 1010.568 815.264 147.989 47.315 2009 876.900 37.477 15.025 23.733 0.413 2020 1149.745 931. 704 168.312 49. 729 2010 902.645 25.745 15.826 10.202 0.417 2025 1310.619 1066.709 191.645 52.265 2015 1010.568 22.686 17.334 6.420 0.439 2020 1149.745 30.173 19.571 11.942 0.461 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. 2025 1310.619 34.975 22.341 14.197 0.485 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. NOTE: POPULATION IS EQUAL TO POPULATION IN PRIOR YEAR PLUS MIGRATION AND NATURAL INCREASE. THE SUM OF COMPONENTS DOES NOT EQUAL THE TOTAL DUE TO ROUNDING IN THE ALLOCATION OF MIGRANTS TO INDIVIDUAL COHORTS. POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. ANNUAL CHANGE IN POPULATION (DELPOP) IS YEAR TO YEAR JULY 1 CHANGE. NATURAL INCREASE (PDPN19) INCLUDES CIVILIAN AND MILITARY. NON-MILITARY MIGRATION (POPMIG). MILITARY MIGRATION CPDPMIGM) INCLUDES ACTIVE DUTY MILITARY PLUS DEPENDENTS. POPULATION (POP) IS JULY 1, CENSUS DEFINITION. CIVILIAN NON NATIVE (CNNTOT). NATIVE (NATTOT) CIVILIAN IS JULY 1 ESTIMATE EXCEPT 1980 IS APRIL 1. MILITARY (MILTOT) IS ACTIVE DUTY PLUS DEPENDENTS. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 5 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 6

TABLE 7. STATE UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 8. STATE GOVERNMENT MISCELLANEOUS VARIABLES (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT LOW CASE 1996 DOT LOW CASE REVENUES GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS ITEM: ------------------------------------------------- ITEM: ------------------------------------------- PERMANENT CONST EXPEND!- INVESTMENT EARNINGS PERSONAL DEBT FUND BUDGET TURES TOTAL PETROLEUM ENDOG- ------------------- INCOME TOTAL OPERATING CAPITAL SERVICE DIVIDEND RESERVE ENOUS GEN. FUND PER. FUND TAX ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1961 192_9 0.7 o_o 1961 158.3 16.4 138.8 3. 1 0.0 40_5 1970 568-4 30.6 o_o 1970 620.2 3510.3 3087.0 292.4 130.9 0.0 106.6 1980 1822.2 120.5 0.0 1980 1880.4 4014.2 3629.2 403.5 173.5 18.9 161.3 1981 7391.8 145.5 0.0 1981 5259.5 5540.6 4937.3 263.9 298.5 41.0 0.0 1982 7983.8 137.4 657.2 1982 4786.3 5791. 7 5047.9 286.0 357.5 100.2 0.0 1983 4275.0 201. 1 246.9 1983 5385.7 5082.9 4247.9 309.0 372.8 153.3 0.0 1984 4253.3 224.0 213.5 1984 4347.0 4564.9 3860.2 324.0 380. 7 0.0 0.0 1985 5067.9 221.9 272.6 1985 4385.2 4266.9 3596. 1 365.2 305.6 0.0 0.0 1986 3641.4 209.9 379.5 1986 3558.0 3955.1 3420.2 283.8 251.0 0.0 0.0 1987 3077.9 198.8 481.2 1987 4659.8 2309.9 1793.9 308.2 207.8 0.0 0.0 1988 2884.2 189.2 547.8 1988 2997.2 2948.8 2493.9 285.3 169.6 0.0 0.0 1989 2934.6 168.6 551.3 1989 2720.5 2290.8 304.4 100.0 25.3 0.0 1990 2845.9 140.7 554.3 1990 2932.8 2487.0 307.9 113.4 24.6 o.o 1991 2666.5 106.8 533.4 1991 3341.2 2885. 1 316.3 112.9 27.0 0.0 1992 73.8 517.5 1992 2664.6 2172.7 381.7 77.9 32.2 0.0 1993 62.6 524.2 1993 3233.3 2817.3 341.6 42. 1 32.3 0.0 1994 34.7 536.7 1994 1697.9 8.6 41.2 0.0 1995 22.9 531.9 1995 2080.0 35.9 36.5 0.0 1996 2404. 1 2254.3 118.6 31.2 601.3 2267.3 1996 2405.8 2007.4 1642.0 313.8 51.6 0.0 0.0 1997 2305.7 2035.3 226. 1 44.2 603. 1 2722.6 1997 2228.2 2226. 1 1872.4 312.4 41.4 0.0 0.0 1998 2300.7 2027.0 225.2 48.5 590.1 2634.5 1998 2296.3 1971.3 1390.6 532.6 48.0 0.0 226.9 1999 2283.3 2016.5 224.1 42.7 593.5 2790.4 1999 2278.8 2139. 7 1278.4 723.9 46.3 91. 1 421.6 2000 2258.8 2009.9 223.3 25.6 548.7 2941.9 2000 2254.3 2110.2 1142.5 723.0 44.5 200.2 422.4 2001 2244.4 2003.7 222.6 18. 1 505.1 2977.2 2001 2239.9 2136.6 1044.9 724.3 43.0 324.3 424.5 2002 2266.6 2012.9 223.7 30.1 454.4 3058.7 2002 2260.9 2206.6 975.1 725. 1 41. 7 464.8 426.7 2003 2305.8 2029.5 225.5 50.7 457.7 3141.3 2003 2299.5 2247. 7 911.2 720.6 40.5 575.5 424.9 2004 2391.2 2096.1 232.9 62.3 401. 1 3225.1 2004 2381.0 2335.0 850.2 715.7 39.3 729.7 422.5 2005 2389.9 2096.7 233.0 60.3 399.2 3310.2 2005 2384.7 2335.5 792.6 713.3 38.5 791.2 421.8 2006 2381. 1 2090.5 232.3 58.4 338.5 3377.1 2006 2376.4 2309.0 732.5 714.4 37.3 824.8 423.6 2007 2372.0 2084.2 231.6 56.2 277. 7 3435.3 2007 2367.3 2291.9 680.7 715.9 36.2 859.0 425.8 2008 2362.6 2077.4 230.8 54.4 272.3 3429.0 2008 2358.0 2218.9 631.6 714.0 35.2 838.0 425.3 2009 2353.3 2070.6 230. 1 52.7 213.0 3417.2 2009 2348.7 2206.2 585.2 715.7 34. 1 871.2 427.2 2010 2343.5 2063.2 229.2 51.0 208.1 3346.4 2010 2338.9 2139.5 538.0 717.9 33. 1 850.4 429.9 2015 2290.4 2023.6 224.8 42.0 138.3 2593.6 2015 2286.1 1945.5 388.8 729.8 28.9 798.0 442.5 2020 2226. 1 1978.0 219.8 28.3 122. 1 956.3 2020 2221.9 1766.9 292.2 746.3 25.5 702.9 457.7 2025 1637.0 1429.4 158.8 48.9 107.3 460.5 2025 1635.9 1608.6 222.8 747.9 20.6 617.4 463.8 SOURCE:!SER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE:!SER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. TOTAL (OF.APGF) INCLUDES SPECIAL APPROPRIATIONS NOT SEPARATELY REPORTED. EXPENDITURES (DF.EXGFB)!S UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES. TOTAL UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND REVENUES (Df.RSGFB). PETROLEUM REVENUES (Df.RP9SG) EXCLUDES PERMANENT FUND AND CONSTITUTIONAL BUDGET RESERVE PORTIONS. ENDOGENOUS REVENUES (Df.RSENG) IS TOTAL NET Of PETROLEUM AND INVESTMENT EARNINGS. INVESTMENT EARNINGS, GENERAL FUND (Df.RS!G) IS EARNINGS FROM ALL SOURCES DEPOSITED IN THE GENERAL FUND EXCEPT PERMANENT FUND EARNINGS. INVESTMENT EARNINGS, PERMANENT FUND (Df.RS!PG). PERSONAL INCOME TAX (Df.RT!S). OPERATING (DF.APGFO). CAPITAL (Of.APGFC). DEBT SERVICE (Df.EXDSS) INCLUDES ONLY GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT Of STATE. PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (Of.EXTRN). CONSTITUTIONAL BUDGET RESERVE BALANCE - YEAR END (Df.BALDF). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 7 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 8

TABLE 9. PERMANENT FUND (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 10. LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT LOii CASE 1996 DOT LOii CASE FUND ADDITIONS FROM INTERGOVERNMENTAL TAXES USE Of EARNINGS RESOURCE REVENUES TOTAL ------------------- ----------------------------- CHARGES ---------------------- ------------------- FUND GENERAL STATE FEDERAL PETROLEUM OTHER AND MISC. EARNINGS SPECIAL BALANCE REVENUE TRANSFERS TRANSFERS PROPERTY PROPERTY OTHER DIVIDEND GENERAL REINVEST FORMULA- APPRO- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- FUND BASED PRIATION 1961 0.0 13.7 --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1970 370.7 124.6 15.8 0.0 30.9 98.7 1961 0.0 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 1980 1371.9 476.3 84.3 107.0 199.3 75.3 429.5 1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1981 1626.9 650.7 105.9 188.8 149.3 77.9 494.6 1980 38.0 0.0 18.9 0.2 553.4 0.0 775.5 1982 2008.1 948.6 82.5 203.2 171.7 78.0 591.1 1981 128.5 0.0 41.0 46.5 573.9 1341.1 2722.9 1983 2248.6 1106. 7 96.6 162.8 186.3 78.1 618.7 1982 446.9 657.2 100.2 246.4 564.6 1127.8 4529.1 1984 2440.4 1128. 7 111.6 326.1 231.0 98.6 690.2 1983 659.3 246.9 153.3 355.0 589.3 559.9 6124.4 1985 2887.0 1217.9 168.7 332.7 249.0 85.3 842.1 1984 713.0 213.5 0.0 477.3 493.1 404.0 7237.3 1986 2656.1 1089.1 85.1 356.7 285.7 96.8 786.9 1985 861.0 272.6 0.0 576.6 481. 7 392.7 8513.2 1987 2601.3 982.9 96.0 339.0 327.2 98.3 755.3 1986 1312.9 379.5 0.0 922.7 434.5 0.0 9703.1 1988 2633.0 1038.7 76.0 330.7 360.6 92.2 702.6 1987 1371.6 481.2 0.0 869.7 213. 7 1623.1 10774.6 1989 2693.2 1069.3 97.4 315.6 356.6 105.0 708.7 1988 1009.0 547.8 0.0 466.8 515.3 0.0 11755.0 1990 2575. 7 952.9 106.1 290.5 318.8 112. 1 708.1 1989 1080.1 551.3 25.3 482.4 263.3 0.0 12226.2 1991 2552.3 946.7 110.0 277.9 311.5 114.3 703.2 1990 1071.4 554.3 24.6 476.6 299.7 0.0 12302.4 1992 2381.2 94.6 277.5 345.4 113.4 703.6 1991 1152.9 533.4 27.0 578.3 449.4 0.0 12853.5 1993 2482.2 130.6 279.1 364.5 125. 1 674.6 1992 1121.0 517.5 32.2 560.5 376.9 0.0 13384.3 1994 261.6 361.1 1993 1286.4 524.2 32.3 696.0 270.5 0.0 14032.7 1995 253.4 367.0 1994 1127.7 536.7 41.2 515.7 0.0 14502.5 1995 1013.0 531.9 36.5 411.2 0.0 14874.9 1996 2539.5 920.6 109.1 264.3 406.8 122.2 716.4 1997 2411.4 864.6 110.9 234.2 370.3 129.2 702.2 1996 1777.3 601.3 0.0 1176.0 296.3 0.0 15690.2 1998 2403.8 860.6 112.0 215.5 392.6 131. 1 692.1 1997 1157.3 603.1 0.0 554.2 332.0 0.0 16151.1 1999 2377.9 855.4 112.8 197. 1 400.6 131.1 681.0 1998 1181.2 590.1 0.0 591.1 229.6 0.0 16455.6 2000 2356.1 853.4 113.8 179.9 404.5 132.6 671.8 1999 1200.8 593.5 91.1 516.3 224.1 0.0 16639.5 2001 2342.8 851.6 114.9 165. 7 412.5 133.8 664.4 2000 1216.0 548.7 200.2 467.1 211.5 0.0 16786.7 2002 2334.8 854.0 115.9 152.6 419.5 135.1 657.6 2001 1225.9 505. 1 324.3 396.4 188.9 0.0 16836.0 2003 2330.8 858.5 117.0 140.2 427.1 136.6 651.3 2002 1229.0 454.4 464.8 309.8 177.5 0.0 16785.9 2004 2338.8 875.3 118. 1 128.4 435.2 136.4 645.3 2003 1225.0 457.7 575.5 191.8 167.8 0.0 16609.5 2005 2326.6 875.1 119.2 117.6 437.9 136.9 639.9 2004 1211.9 401.1 729.7 81.1 158.5 0.0 16318.8 2006 2315.8 873.0 120.3 107.0 443.0 137.8 634.7 2005 1190.5 399.2 791.2 0.0 149.7 0.0 15947.6 2007 2309.5 871.2 121.4 97.6 449.3 139.8 630.2 20D6 1163.4 338.5 824.8 D.D 146.1 D.D 15584.8 2DD8 23D3.6 869.6 122.5 88.7 455.8 141.1 626.D 2DD7 1136. 7 277.7 859.0 D.D 137.8 D.D 15225.2 2DD9 2295.7 867.4 123.6 8D.6 459.8 142.1 622.2 2DD8 111D.3 272.3 838.D D.D 129.9 D.D 14869.3 2D1D 2289.6 865.4 124.8 73.2 463.0 144.2 618.9 2DD9 1084.2 213.D 871.2 D.D 122.3 D.0 14517.3 2D15 2283.5 855.2 13D.6 43.8 493.D 153.7 6D7.1 2D1D 1D58.5 2D8.1 85D.4 O.D 118.9 D.D 14173.1 2D2D 2299.4 844.0 136.8 23.7 528.7 165.3 6DD.9 2D15 936.3 138.3 798.D D.D 92.2 D.D 12529.6 2D25 2218.2 7D8.2 143.3 18.5 568.4 175.9 6D3.8 2D20 824.9 122. 1 7D2.9 D.D 73.3 D.D 11D35.7 2D25 724.7 1D7.3 617.4 D.D 59.D D.D 9692.1 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. EARNINGS (Df.RSIP). PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (Df.EXTRN). CONTRIBUTION TO GENERAL FUND (Df.RSIPG). REINVESTED EARNINGS (Df.RSIPP) INCLUDES ALL RESIDUAL EARNINGS AFTER DIVIDEND AND ALLOCATION TO GENERAL FUND. FORMULA BASED REVENUES (Df.RP7SP). SPECIAL APPROPRIATION REVENUES (Df.XPFCX). FUND BALANCE AT YEAR END (Df.BALPF) INCLUDES EARNINGS RESERVE. TOTAL GENERAL REVENUE (Df.RL99). STATE TRANSFERS (Df.RLT99). FEDERAL TRANSFERS (Df.RLTF). PETROLEUM PROPERTY TAXES (Df.RLPTP). OTHER PROPERTY TAXES (Df.RLPTN). OTHER TAXES (Df.RLOT). CHARGES AND MISCELLANEOUS (Df.RLMC) INCLUDE REVENUES TO SERVICE BONDS. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 9 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 10

TABLE 11. COMPONENTS OF REAL PERSONAL INCOME (M!LL!ON 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 12. PER CAPITA VARIABLES (1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT LOii CASE 1996 DOT LOii CASE WAGE AND DIV., TOTAL D!SP. STATE AVERAGE SALARY NET RESIDENCE INTEREST, TRANSFERS PERSONAL PERSONAL TOTAL DISPOSABLE GENERAL PERMANENT C!V!L!AN PERMANENT PAYMENTS EARNINGS ADJ. RENT INCOME INCOME INCOME INCOME FUND FUND ANNUAL FUND --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- EXPEND. DIVIDEND WAGE BALANCE 1961 2146.0 2406.4 136.8 132.5 120.0 2522.1 2209.8 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1970 4161.5 4533.7 154.1 405.1 290.5 5074.8 4364.4 1961 10657 9337 0 28750 0 1980 7069.2 7996.4 527.5 775.8 759.7 9005.2 7559.2 1970 16450 14147 2010 0 35451 0 1981 7817.9 8633.8 663.7 866.0 832.2 9668.0 7949.9 1980 21451 18007 4479 0 37195 1847 1982 8555.0 9452.1 756.8 973.6 1272.3 10940.8 9157.5 1981 22261 18305 12110 0 38259 6270 1983 9311.0 10499.3 834.8 1213.3 1382. 1 12260.0 10419.2 1982 23564 19723 10309 1415 38939 9755 1984 9404.1 10769.7 820.5 1344.0 1190.6 12483.7 10562.2 1983 24564 20876 10791 495 39962 12271 1985 9329.5 10929.8 792.0 1472.3 1549.5 13159.5 11353.2 1984 23824 20157 8296 407 38490 13812 1986 8750.8 10471.8 711.9 1508.0 1647.3 12915.3 10978.6 1985 24195 20874 8062 501 37205 15652 1987 8281.1 9906.4 672.6 1509.0 1714.8 12457.1 10564.9 1986 23452 19936 6461 689 36187 17620 1988 8455.1 10065.8 703.8 1549.5 1852.5 12764.2 11228.3 1987 23013 19518 8609 889 35546 19905 1989 9183.9 10735.4 783.9 1641.9 1973.8 13567.5 11780.6 1988 23858 20988 5602 1024 35457 21972 1990 9150.3 10714.0 772.8 1639.0 2038.1 13618.4 11871.9 1989 25176 21860 1023 36610 22687 1991 9191.0 10775.2 775.5 1603.1 2125.7 13728.0 12199.8 1990 24622 21464 1002 34683 22243 1992 9349.3 10903.7 781.8 1600.6 2262.5 13985.3 12463.9 1991 24101 21418 936 34102 22566 1993 9385.6 11006.3 772.0 1642.3 2426.8 14303.3 12795.5 1992 23801 21212 881 33991 22778 1994 9402.2 11084.6 772.1 1748.2 2458.1 14518.9 12954.1 1993 23907 21386 876 33487 23454 1995 9252. 1 10980.0 757.3 1735.8 2529.6 14488.0 12928.0 1994 24082 21486 890 33156 24055 1995 24007 21422 881 32288 24648 1996 9413.1 11315.9 812.9 1743.4 2666.3 15139.0 13514.6 1997 9399.7 11300.9 797.6 1779.0 2807.2 15313.4 13642.3 1996 24787 22127 3939 984 32904 25689 1998 9217.6 11094.0 778.6 1794.1 2948.5 15276.3 13267.4 1997 25157 22412 3660 991 33099 26533 1999 9167.5 11034.1 770.6 1818.2 3072.7 15369.1 13355.9 1998 25288 21963 3801 977 33130 27241 2000 9155.7 11021.0 767.8 1855.7 3133.4 15454.1 13426.5 1999 25415 22086 3768 981 32945 27515 2001 9176.9 11052.9 762.0 1902.3 3153.5 15555.9 13502.9 2000 25388 22057 3703 901 32784 27578 2002 9224.4 11105.2 765.0 1953.7 3176.2 15677.0 13603.8 2001 25318 21977 3646 822 32667 27402 2003 9193.8 11064.3 762.1 1998.7 3108.3 15613.0 13550.1 2002 25224 21888 3638 731 32572 27008 2004 9170.0 11036.2 759.2 2041.3 3103.8 15622. 7 13549.4 2003 24897 21608 3667 730 32456 26486 2005 9169.3 11033.4 757.6 2084.3 3120.4 15678.4 13598.5 2004 24724 21443 3768 635 32353 25826 2006 9196.3 11072.4 758.6 2136.6 3199.2 15845.0 13732.6 2005 24631 21364 3746 627 32264 25054 2007 9211. 1 11088.3 758.7 2190.8 3217.6 15930.8 13801.2 2006 24666 21378 3699 527 32173 24261 2008 9222.5 11089.8 758.4 2240.1 3232.8 15994.3 13859.6 2007 24569 21285 3651 428 32086 23481 2009 9255.8 11137.1 760.2 2298.9 3312.8 16176.2 14004.3 2008 24455 21191 3605 416 32003 22735 2010 9275.6 11159.3 760.9 2358.8 3335.7 16277.9 14088.7 2009 24482 21194 3555 322 31906 21971 2015 9455.4 11362.5 771.3 2679.5 3679.7 17122.6 14796.6 2010 24391 21110 3505 312 31814 21237 2020 9691.3 11633.0 787.3 3027.7 4070. 7 18103.6 15622.8 2015 24379 21068 3255 197 31373 17840 2025 9566. 7 11498.2 775.3 3359.9 4423.6 18650.4 16070.7 2020 24515 21155 3009 165 30932 14944 2025 24478 21093 2147 141 30366 12721 SOURCE:!SER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE:!SER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. WAGE AND SALARY PAYMENTS (DF.P!WS)!N NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY JOB CATEGORIES PLUS MILITARY. TOTAL INCOME (DP.PIB). NET EARNINGS (OF.PINE) rs NET LABOR AND PROPRIETORS' INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOME (DP.DP!B). BY PLACE OF WORK. STATE GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES (DP.EXGFB). RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT (DF.P!RAD). PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (DP.EXTRN). DIVIDENDS, INTEREST, AND RENT (DF.P!D!R). AVERAGE C!V!L!AN ANNUAL WAGE (DF.WR97). TRANSFERS (DF.P!TRAN). PERMANENT FUND BALANCE (DP.BALPF). TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME (DF.P!B). DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME (DF.DP!B) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 11 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 12

TABLE 13. PRICE INDEXES 1996 DOT LOii CASE INFLATION ANCHORAGE AN CH/US RATE ANCH CPl-W PRICE LEVEL CPl-W (PERCENT) ----------- ----------- ----------- 1961 35.4 1.46 0.8 1970 42.1 1.34 3.5 1980 86.3 1.29 9.2 1981 92.9 1.26 7.7 1982 98.2 1.26 5.7 1983 98.9 1.23 0.7 1984 102.9 1.24 4.0 1985 105.8 1.23 2.9 1986 107.7 1.23 1.8 1987 107.9 1.19 0.2 1988 108.3 1. 15 0.4 1989 111.3 1.13 2.8 1990 118.4 1.14 6.4 1991 123.8 1.14 4.6 1992 128.0 1. 15 3.4 1993 132.0 1.15 3.1 1994 134.8 1. 15 2. 1 1995 138.5 1. 15 2.7 1996 143.0 1.14 3.2 1997 147.0 1. 14 2.8 1998 151.8 1. 14 3.3 1999 157.2 1.14 3.5 2000 162.3 1. 14 3.3 2001 167.7 1.13 3.3 2002 173.2 1.13 3.3 2003 178.9 1.13 3.3 2004 184.8 1.13 3.3 2005 190.9 1. 12 3.3 2006 197.2 1.12 3.3 2007 203.7 1. 12 3.3 2008 210.4 1.12 3.3 2009 217.4 1. 12 3.3 2010 224.5 1.11 3.3 2015 264.0 1. 10 3.3 2020 310.4 1.09 3.3 2025 365.0 1.08 3.3 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96L, CREATED OCT 1996. ANCHORAGE CPI (POANCPI) CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS (1982-1984 = 100). ANCH/US PRICE LEVEL (PDRATIO) JS THE RATIO OF ANCHORAGE AND US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX LEVELS. INFLATION RATE (G.ANCPI). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 13

TABLE 15. POPULATION BY LABOR MARKET AREA (THOUSANDS) TABLE 16. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY LABOR MARKET AREA (THOUSANDS) ANCH/MATSU SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH GULF COAST SOUTHWEST TOTAL ANCH/MATSU SOUTHEAST INTERIOR NORTH GULF COAST SOUTHWEST TOTAL ---------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- --------- ---------- --------- --------- 1961 1961 1970 1970 1980 201.1 56.0 71.0 16. 1 45.0 30.5 419.8 1980 1981 208.4 57.7 73.3 16.4 46.3 31.6 433.8 1981 1982 224.4 59.5 77.8 17.2 52.4 32.1 463.4 1982 1983 244.1 62.2 82.6 18. 1 55.1 33.4 495.6 1983 1984 259.8 63.5 85.8 18.8 60.3 33.9 522.0 1984 1985 271.5 64.7 88.3 19.4 63.0 34.4 541.3 1985 1986 275.1 64.9 89.6 19.4 63.9 34.8 547.6 1986 1987 267.0 64.1 88.7 19.8 63.1 35.1 537.8 1987 1988 260.9 64.1 88.6 19.8 62.3 35.3 531.0 1988 1989 260.8 65.4 89.4 19.9 62.6 36.2 534.4 1989 1990 266.0 69.0 92.1 20.4 64.1 38.5 550.0 1990 138.8 38.5 42.5 13.1 29.3 19.0 281.2 1991 277.7 71.1 95.2 20.9 65.2 39.3 569.6 1991 143.8 37.5 44.5 13.0 29.7 20.2 288.8 1992 289.2 72.2 96.1 21.8 68.0 40.2 587.6 1992 1993 297.8 72.4 97.9 21.9 68.0 40.2 598.3 1993 1994 302.9 72.7 97.9 22.3 70.2 37.0 602.9 1994 1995 302.7 73.2 96.5 22.4 71.2 37.5 603.5 1995 1996 305.9 74.1 96.2 22.7 73.3 38.6 610.8 1996 153.7 41.9 43.4 13.3 33.1 19.3 306.7 1997 306.3 73.5 94.5 22.5 73.3 38.6 608.7 1997 153.4 41.4 42.8 12.8 32.9 19.0 304.3 1998 303.9 72.7 93.4 22.4 73.0 38.7 604.1 1998 150.1 40.5 41.9 12.5 32.3 18.7 298.0 1999 303.9 73.0 93.3 22.5 73.2 38.9 604.7 1999 150. 1 40.7 41.8 12.5 32.3 18.8 298.2 2000 305.7 73.7 93.8 22.7 73.7 39.1 608.7 2000 150.5 41.1 42.0 12.6 32.5 18.8 299.4 2001 308.2 74.7 94.5 23.0 74.7 39.4 614.4 2001 151.3 41.5 42.2 12.7 32.8 18.8 301.3 2002 312.4 75.5 95.1 23.2 75.6 39.6 621.5 2002 153.0 41.9 42.4 12.8 33.1 18.8 303.9 2003 315.6 76.2 95.7 23.5 76.2 39.9 627.1 2003 153.2 42.0 42.4 12.8 33.1 18.7 304.2 2004 318.2 76.9 96.2 23.8 76.5 40.3 631.9 2004 153.4 42.1 42.4 12.8 32.9 18.7 304.3 2005 320.8 77.6 96.6 24.1 76.8 40.6 636.5 2005 153.9 42.2 42.4 12.9 32.9 18.6 305.0 2006 324.5 78.2 97.1 24.4 77.3 40.9 642.4 2006 155.2 42.4 42.5 12.9 33.0 18.6 306.7 2007 328.2 78.9 97.6 24.6 77.9 41.2 648.4 2007 156.1 42.6 42.6 13.0 33.1 18.6 307.9 2008 331.6 79.5 98.1 24.8 78.5 41.5 654.0 2008 157.0 42.7 42.7 13.0 33.2 18.5 309.0 2009 335.9 80.2 98.6 25.1 79.2 41.7 660.8 2009 158.5 42.9 42.8 13.0 33.3 18.5 311.0 2010 340.1 81.0 99.2 25.4 79.8 42.0 667.4 2010 159.6 43.1 42.9 13.1 33.4 18.5 312.5 2015 362.6 84.5 102. 1 26.7 83.1 43.3 702.3 2015 167.2 44.2 43.6 13.4 34.1 18.4 322.9 2020 386.4 88;0 104.9 28.1 86.5 44.5 738.5 2020 176.2 45.6 44.5 13.8 35.0 18.4 335.5 2025 404.9 89.5 105.3 28.6 88.7 45.0 761.9 2025 179.8 45.2 43.9 13.5 35.0 17. 7 337.1 SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED OCT 1996. ANCH/MATSU (PL.ANCMS). SOUTHEAST (PL.SEASTJ. INTERIOR (PL.INTER). NORTH (PL.NORTH). GULF COAST (PL.GULF). SOUTHWEST CPL.SWEST). TOTAL (PCEN.ST). ANCH/MATSU (ML.ANCMS). SOUTHEAST (ML.SEAST). INTERIOR (ML.INTER). NORTH (ML.NORTH). GULF COAST (ML.GULF). SOUTHWEST (ML.SWEST). TOTAL (MCEN.ST). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 15 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 16

TABLE 1. PART A WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT LOii CASE STATE SOUTHEAST -------------------------------- -------------------------------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 261.8 1B6.5 75.3 37.1 28.5 8.6 1997 259.7 185.3 74.4 36.7 28.1 8.6 1998 254.6 181.4 73.3 35.8 27.4 8.4 1999 255.5 181.9 73.6 36.1 27.7 8.4 2000 257.3 183.1 74.2 36.5 28.1 8.4 2001 259.7 184.7 75.0 36.9 28.5 8.4 2002 262.3 1B6.5 75.8 37.3 28.8 8.5 2003 262.6 1B6.7 75.9 37.4 28.9 8.5 2004 262.9 1B6.9 76.0 37.5 29.0 8.5 2005 263.7 187.4 76.3 37.7 29.2 8.5 2006 265.4 188.6 76.8 37.9 29.4 8.5 2007 266.7 189.6 77.2 38.1 29.5 8.5 2008 267.9 190.4 77.5 38.2 29.7 8.5 2009 269.9 191.8 78.1 38.5 29.9 8.6 2010 271.4 192.9 78.5 38.7 30.1 8.6 2015 281.5 200.3 81.2 39.8 31.1 8.7 202b 293.8 209.2 84.6 41.2 32.3 8.9 2025 295.8 210.8 85.0 40.9 32.1 8.8 SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. STATE TOTAL CM97CE.ST) STATE URBAN (M97CE.SU) STATE RURAL (M97CE.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL (M97CE.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN (M97CE.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL (M97CE.ER) TABLE 1. PART B WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT LOii CASE SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- ----------------------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 186.8 151.8 35.1 37.8 6.3 31.6 1997 186.0 150.9 35.1 37.0 6.3 30.8 1998 182.5 147.9 34.7 36.3 6.1 30.2 1999 183.0 148.1 34.9 36.3 6.0 30.3 2000 184.3 149.0 35.4 36.4 6.0 30.4 2001 186.1 150. 1 36.0 36.6 6.0 30.6 2002 188.2 151.6 36.6 36.8 6.0 30.7 2003 188.5 151.8 36.7 36.7 6.0 30.7 2004 188.6 151.8 36.8 36.7 6.0 30.8 2005 189.2 152.2 37.0 36.8 6.0 30.8 2006 190.6 153.3 37.4 36.9 5.9 30.9 2007 191.8 154. 1 37.7 36.9 5.9 31.0 2008 192.8 154.8 38.0 36.9 5.9 31.0 2009 194.4 156.0 38.4 37.0 5.9 31. 1 2010 195.7 157.0 38.8 37.0 5.9 31. 1 2015 204.4 163.4 41.0 37.4 5.8 31.6 2020 214.6 171.1 43.5 37.9 5.8 32.2 2025 218.0 173.2 44.8 37.0 5.6 31.4 SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. WAGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IS ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR TOTAL (M97CE.CTJ SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR URBAN (M97CE.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR RURAL (M97CE.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (M97CE.WEl WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (M97CE.llU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL CM97CE.WR) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

TABLE 1. PART C TABLE 2. PART A ~AGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) POPULATION (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT L~ CA!\E 1996 DOT L~ CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS STATE SOUTHEAST ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK -------------------------------- --------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL 1996 121.4 30.4 16.4 7.9 4.1 6.3 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1997 120.9 30.0 16.4 7.6 4.1 6.3 1996 610.8 406.1 204.7 74.1 53.3 20.8 1998 118.5 29.3 16.2 7.2 4.0 6.1 1997 608.7 404.5 204.2 73.5 52.9 20.6 1999 118.9 29.2 16.6 7.1 4.0 6.0 1998 604.1 399.7 204.4 72.7 52.3 20.4 2000 119.6 29.4 16.9 7.1 4.0 6.0 1999 604.7 399.4 205.3 73.0 52.7 20.4 2001 120.5 29.6 17.3 7.2 4.0 6.0 2000 608.7 401.3 207.4 73.7 53.3 20.4 2002 121.8 29.9 17.5 7.2 4.1 6.0 2001 614.4 404.0 210.4 74.7 54.1 20.5 2003 121.9 29.9 17.6 7.3 4.1 6.0 2002 621.5 408.3 213.2 75.5 54.8 20.6 2004 122.0 29.9 17.7 7.3 4.1 6.0 2003 627.1 411.3 215.8 76.2 55.4 20.8 2005 122.3 29.9 17.8 7.3 4.1 6.0 2004 631.9 413.9 218.0 76.9 56.0 21.0 2006 123.2 30.1 18.0 7.3 4.1 5.9 2005 636.5 416.3 220.2 77.6 56.5 21.1 2007 123.9 30.1 18. 1 7.3 4.1 5.9 2006 642.4 419.7 222.7 78.2 57.0 21.2 2008 124.6 30.2 18.2 7.4 4.1 5.9 2007 648.4 423.2 225.2 78.9 57.5 21.4 2009 125. 7 30.4 18.4 7.4 4.1 5.9 2008 654.0 426.3 227. 7 79.5 58.0 21.5 2010 126.5 30.4 18.5 7.4 4.2 5.9 2009 660.8 430.3 230.4 80.2 58.6 21.7 2015 132.2 31.2 19.2 7.6 4.3 5.8 2010 667.4 434.2 233.2 81.0 59.1 21.8 2020 139.0 32.1 20.1 7.9 4.4 5.8 2015 702.3 455.2 247.1 84.5 62.0 22.5 2025 141.4 31. 7 19.9 7.8 4.4 5.6 2020 738.5 477.0 261.5 88.0 64.8 23.2 2025 761.9 489.3 272.6 89.5 65.8 23.6 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ~AGE AND SALARY EMPLOYMENT IS ALASKA t DEPARTMENT OF LABOR DEFINITION. STATE TOTAL CPCEN.ST) ANCHORAGE (M97CE. 13) STATE URBAN CPCEN.SU) FAIRBANKS (M97CE.05) STATE RURAL (PCEN.SR) JUNEAU CM97CE.19) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: KETCHK!AN (M97CE.23) SOUTHEAST TOTAL (PCEN.ET) SITKA (M97CE.20) SOUTHEAST URBAN (PCEN.EU) KODIAK (M97CE.15) SOUTHEAST RURAL CPCEN.ER) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

TABLE 2. PART B TABLE 2. PART C POPULATION (THOUSANDS) POPULATION (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT LOW CASE 1996 DOT LOW CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 255.5 82.1 29.0 15.4 8.8 15.3 1996 457.5 337.5 119.9 79.2 15.3 64.0 1997 254.9 81.4 29.0 15.0 8.8 15.3 1997 456.1 336.3 119.9 79.0 15.3 63.7 1998 251.9 80.4 29.1 14.5 8.7 15.1 1998 452.6 332.3 120.2 78.8 15.1 63.7 1999 251.3 80.3 29.7 14.3 8.7 15.1 1999 452.7 331.7 121.0 79.0 15.1 63.9 2000 252.2 80.7 30.3 14.4 8.7 15.1 2000 455.5 332.9 122.7 79.4 15.1 64.4 2001 253.6 81.2 30.9 14.5 8.8 15.1 2001 459.7 334.8 124.9 80.0 15.1 64.9 2002 256.6 81.8 31.4 14.6 8.8 15.1 2002 465.4 338.3 127. 1 80.6 15.1 65.5 2003 258.7 82.1 31.8 14.7 8.9 15.1 2003 469.6 340.8 128.9 81.2 15.1 66.1 2004 260.4 82.4 32.2 14.8 9.0 15.1 2004 473.0 342.8 130.2 82.0 15.1 66.8 2005 262.1 82.6 32.5 14.9 9.0 15.1 2005 476.3 344.7 131.6 82.6 15.1 67.5 2006 264.6 82.9 32.9 15. 1 9. 1 15.1 2006 481.0 347.6 133.4 83.2 15.1 68.1 2007 267.3 83.2 33.2 15.2 9.1 15.2 2007 485.7 350.5 135.2 83.8 15.2 68.6 2008 269.7 83.5 33.6 15.3 9.2 15.2 2008 490.2 353.2 137.0 84.3 15.2 69.2 2009 272.7 83.9 33.9 15.4 9.2 15.2 2009 495.6 356.6 139.0 84.9 15.2 69.7 2010 275.6 84.2 34.3 15.5 9.3 15.2 2010 500.9 359.8 141.1 85.5 15.2 70.3 2015 291.7 86.3 36.2 16.2 9.6 15.2 2015 529.4 378.0 151.4 88.4 15.2 73.2 2020 308.7 88.3 38.1 16.8 10.0 15.2 2020 559.3 396.9 162.4 91. 1 15.2 75.9 2025 320.3 88.1 38.7 17.1 10. 1 15.1 2025 580.4 408.4 172.0 92.1 15.1 77.0 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR TOTAL (PCEN.CT) SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR URBAN CPCEN.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR RURAL (PCEN.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (PCEN.WEl WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (PCEN.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL (PCEN.WR) ANCHORAGE (PCEN.13) FAIRBANKS (PCEN.05) JUNEAU (PCEN.19) KETCHKIAN (PCEN.23) SITKA (PCEN.20) KODIAK (PCEN.15) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 5 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 6

TABLE 3. PART A TABLE 3. PART B NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLOS CTHOUSANOS) NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLOS (THOUSANDS) 1996 DOT LOii CASE 1996 DOT LOii CASE STATE SCXJTHEAST SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- -------------------------------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 216.4 149.9 66.4 27.3 19.9 7.3 1996 167.4 125.2 42.2 21.7 4.9 16.8 1997 216.5 149.9 66.5 27.2 19.9 7.3 1997 167.6 125.2 42.4 21. 7 4.9 16.8 1998 215.7 148.8 66.9 27.0 19.7 7.3 1998 166.9 124.2 42.7 21.7 4.9 16.9 1999 216.6 149.2 67.4 27.2 20.0 7.3 1999 167.6 124.4 43.1 21.9 4.8 17.0 2000 218.6 150.3 68.3 27.6 20.3 7.3 2000 169.0 125.2 43.8 22.0 4.9 17.2 2001 221.2 151.7 69.5 28.0 20.6 7.4 2001 171.0 126.2 44.8 22.3 4.9 17.4 2002 224.1 153.5 70.6 28.3 20.9 7.4 2002 173.4 127.7 45.6 22.5 4.9 17.6 2003 226.5 155.0 71.6 28.7 21.2 7.5 2003 175.2 128.9 46.3 22.7 4.9 17.8 2004 228.6 156.2 72.4 29.0 21.4 7.6 2004 176. 7 129.8 46.9 22.9 4.9 18.0 2005 230.6 157.3 73.3 29.3 21.7 7.6 2005 178.2 130.8 47.5 23.1 4.9 18.2 2006 233.0 158.8 74.2 29.5 21.9 7.7 2006 180.2 132.0 48.2 23.3 4.9 18.4 2007 235.4 160.3 75.2 29.8 22.1 7.7 2007 182.1 133.2 48.9 23.5 4.9 18.6 2008 237.7 161.6 76.1 30.1 22.3 7.8 2008 183.9 134.4 49.5 23.7 4.9 18.7 2009 240.3 163.2 77.1 30.4 22.5 7.8 2009 186.0 135. 7 50.3 23.9 4.9 18.9 2010 242.8 164.8 78.1 30.7 22.8 7.9 2010 188.1 137.1 51. 1 24.0 5.0 19.1 2015 255.9 173.0 82.9 32.0 23.9 8.2 2015 199.0 144.2 54.8 24.9 5.0 19.9 2020 269.2 181.3 87.9 33.4 25.0 8.4 2020 210.2 151.4 58.8 25.6 5.0 20.7 2025 277.9 186.1 91.8 33.9 25.3 8.5 2025 218.1 155.8 62.3 25.9 4.9 21.0 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. STATE TOTAL (HHCEN.ST) STATE URBAN CHHCEN.SU) STATE RURAL (HHCEN.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL CHHCEN.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN (HHCEN.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL (HHCEN.ER) SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR TOTAL (HHCEN.CT) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR URBAN (HHCEN.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR RURAL (HHCEN.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (HHCEN.WE) WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (HHCEN.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL (HHCEN.WR) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 7 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 8

TABLE 3. PART C TABLE 4. PART A NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS (THOUSANDS) REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) 1996 DOT LOW CASE 1996 DOT LOW CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS STATE SOUTHEAST ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL 1996 96.1 29.1 11.0 5.8 3.1 4.9 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1997 96.3 28.9 11.1 5. 7 3.1 4.9 1996 15139 10878 4261 2083 1607 475 1998 95.5 28.7 11.2 5.5 3.1 4.9 1997 15313 10996 4318 2098 1618 480 1999 95.7 28.8 11.5 5.4 3.1 4.8 1998 15276 10953 4323 2082 1604 478 2000 96.2 29.0 11.7 5.4 3.1 4.9 1999 15369 11001 4369 2095 1617 479 2001 97.0 29.2 12.0 5.5 3.1 4.9 2000 15454 11054 4400 2111 1632 479 2002 98.3 29.5 12.2 5.6 3.2 4.9 2001 15556 11119 4437 2128 1648 479 2003 99.2 29.6 12.4 5.6 3.2 4.9 2002 15677 11202 4475 2144 1664 481 2004 100.1 29.8 12.5 5. 7 3.2 4.9 2003 15613 11157 4456 2137 1660 477 2005 100.8 29.9 12.7 5. 7 3.2 4.9 2004 15623 11159 4464 2144 1667 477 2006 101.9 30.1 12.8 5.8 3.3 4.9 2005 15678 11192 4486 2156 1678 478 2007 103.0 30.2 13.0 5.8 3.3 4.9 2006 15845 11307 4538 2177 1695 481 2008 104.1 30.3 13. 1 5.9 3.3 4.9 2007 15931 11368 4563 2186 1704 482 2009 105.3 30.5 13.3 5.9 3.3 4.9 2008 15994 11411 4583 2194 1711 483 2010 106.4 30.6 13.4 6.0 3.4 5.0 2009 16176 11537 4639 2214 1728 486 2015 112.8 31.4 14.2 6.2 3.5 5.0 2010 16278 11610 4668 2225 1738 488 2020 119.3 32.1 14.9 6.4 3.6 5.0 2015 17123 12202 4921 2318 1816 503 2025 123.8 32.0 15.1 6.6 3.7 4.9 2020 18104 12888 5216 2426 1906 520 2025 18650 13263 5387 2455 1930 525 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ANCHORAGE (HHCEN.13) FAIRBANKS (HHCEN.05) JUNEAU (HHCEN.19) KETCHKIAN (HHCEN.23) SITKA (HHCEN.20) KODIAK (HHCEN.15) STATE TOTAL (OF.PI.ST) STATE URBAN (OF.PI.SU) STATE RURAL (OF.PI.SR) ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHEAST TOTAL (OF.PI.ET) SOUTHEAST URBAN (OF.PI.EU) SOUTHEAST RURAL (OF.PI.ER) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 9 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 10

TABLE 4. PART B TABLE 4. PART C REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLIONS OF 1995 $) 1996 DOT LOW CASE 1996 DOT LOW CASE URBAN CENSUS AREAS SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR WESTERN-ARCTIC -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ANCHORAGE FAIRBANKS JUNEAU KETCHIKAN SITKA KODIAK TOTAL URBAN RURAL TOTAL URBAN RURAL ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 7055 1874 972 419 217 341 1996 11445 8929 2516 1612 341 1270 1997 7143 1887 981 419 218 348 1997 11586 9029 2557 1629 348 1281 1998 7128 1875 983 405 217 345 1998 11569 9003 2566 1625 345 1279 1999 7169 1870 1001 399 216 345 1999 11637 9039 2598 1637 345 1292 2000 7205 1874 1017 398 216 344 2000 11703 9079 2624 1641 344 1297 2001 7250 1878 1032 400 217 343 2001 11786 9128 2658 1642 343 1299 2002 7313 1884 1044 402 217 342 2002 11890 9197 2694 1643 342 1301 2003 7291 1869 1044 400 216 338 2003 11851 9159 2692 1625 338 1287 2004 7290 1865 1051 400 216 336 2004 11856 9155 2701 1623 336 1287 2005 7313 1867 1060 402 217 335 2005 11897 9179 2717 1626 335 1291 2006 7398 1878 1072 405 218 335 2006 12031 9277 2754 1637 335 1302 2007 7450 1880 1079 406 219 334 2007 12107 9330 2m 1637 334 1303 2008 7487 1880 1085 407 219 333 2008 12165 9367 2797 1636 333 1303 2009 7585 1892 1097 411 220 333 2009 12316 9476 2839 1646 333 1313 2010 7645 1895 1104 412 221 332 2010 12406 9540 2866 1647 332 1314 2015 8110 1943 1160 428 228 333 2015 13118 10053 3065 1686 333 1353 2020 8646 2002 1224 445 237 334 2020 13943 10648 3295 1735 334 1401 2025 9000 2005 1240 451 239 328 2025 14461 11005 3456 1735 328 1407 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96LR, CREATED 1996 OCT. ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REGIONS: SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR TOTAL (OF.PI.CT) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR URBAN (OF.PI.CU) SOUTHCENTRAL-INTERIOR RURAL (OF.Pl.CR) WESTERN-ARCTIC TOTAL (OF.PI.WE) WESTERN-ARCTIC URBAN (OF.PI.WU) WESTERN-ARCTIC RURAL (OF.PI.WR) ANCHORAGE (DF.PI.13) FAIRBANKS (OF.PI.OS) JUNEAU (DF.PI.19) KETCHKIAN (OF.PI.23) SITKA (DF.PI.20) KODIAK (DF.PI.15) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 11 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 12

MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 1 MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 2 1996 DOT LOW CASE 1996 DOT LOW CASE BASIC EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) BASIC EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS) HIGH WAGE LOW WAGE HIGH WAGE LOW WAGE AGRI- EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS EXOGENOUS FISH ACTIVE CIVILIAN CULTURAL PETROLEUM CON- CON- TRANS- MINING MANU- MANU- HARVESTING DUTY FEDERAL EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT STRUCTION STRUCTION PORTATION EMPLOYMENT FACTURING FACTURING EMPLOYMENT MILITARY EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1980 0.224 6.159 0.468 0.000 1.100 0.526 1980 0.000 11.322 7.620 22.003 17.716 1981 0.320 8.117 1.600 0.000 1.100 0.793 1981 o.ooo 11.260 7.898 22.451 17.476 1982 0.356 8.085 2.179 0.000 1.100 0.755 1982 0.000 9.793 8.285 22.103 17.640 1983 0.377 7.443 3.005 0.000 1.100 0.738 1983 0.000 8.934 7.946 22.267 17. 731 1984 0.458 8.048 1.903 0.000 1.000 0.654 1984 0.000 8.058 8.202 22.579 18.075 1985 0.485 8.869 1.222 0.000 0.940 0.644 1985 0.000 8.707 8.357 23.073 17.567 1986 0.512 8.508 0.958 0.000 0.885 0.571 1986 0.000 9.473 8.450 22.953 17.831 1987 0.495 8.063 0.382 0.000 0.860 0. 725 1987 o.ooo 9.941 8.361 24.447 17.886 1988 0.525 8.620 0.272 0.000 0.876 0.971 1988 0.000 12.104 8.568 24.064 17.874 1989 0.510 9.165 0.240 0.000 0.949 1.082 1989 0.000 12.425 8.820 24.564 18.218 1990 0.567 10.258 0.225 0.000 1.095 1.217 1990 0.000 13.818 8.840 23.132 18. 729 1991 0.596 10.541 0.225 0.000 1.299 1.221 1991 14.489 9.080 25.139 18.922 1992 0.664 9.229 0.167 0.000 1.380 1.252 1992 14.865 24.460 19.558 1993 0. 762 8.956 0.173 0.000 1.312 1.075 1993 13.291 24.355 19.997 1994 0.813 9.149 0.473 0.000 1.329 1.122 1994 12.909 20.119 18.741 1995 0.857 8.690 0.434 0.000 1.125 1995 13.662 19.633 17.576 1996 0.606 8.500 1.665 0.755 2.840 1.115 1996 0.000 12.653 9.085 18.420 17.100 1997 0.612 8.400 1.270 0.869 2.890 1.296 1997 0.000 12.337 8.994 18.270 16.601 1998 0.618 8.300 1.175 0.783 2.940 1.452 1998 o.ooo 12.097 8.904 17.677 16.559 1999 0.624 8.250 1.100 0.497 2.990 1.558 1999 0.000 11.983 8.815 17.085 16.518 2000 0.631 8.250 1.050 0.512 3.040 1.664 2000 0.000 11.871 8.727 16.495 16.477 2001 0.637 8.250 0.850 0.627 3.090 1.920 2001 0.000 11.759 8.640 15.905 16.436 2002 0.643 8.250 0.850 0.643 3.140 1.926 2002 0.000 11.649 8.553 15.816 16.394 2003 0.650 8.250 0.850 0.660 3.140 1.933 2003 0.000 11.540 8.468 15.728 16.354 2004 0.656 8.250 0.850 0.576 3.140 1.939 2004 0.000 11.432 8.383 15.640 16.313 2005 0.663 8.250 0.850 0.594 3.140 1.945 2005 0.000 11.325 8.299 15.554 16.272 2006 0.669 8.250 0.850 0.611 3.140 1.952 2006 o.ooo 11.219 8_216 15.468 16.231 2007 0.676 8.250 0.850 0.630 3.140 1.958 2007 0.000 11.114 8.134 15.384 16. 191 2008 0.683 8.250 0.850 0.649 3.140 1.965 2008 0.000 11.010 8.053 15.300 16.150 2009 0.690 8.250 0.850 0.668 3.140 1.971 2009 0.000 10.907 7.972 15.217 16.110 2010 0.697 8.250 0.850 0.688 3.140 1.978 2010 0.000 10.805 7.893 15.135 16.069 2011 0. 704 8.250 0.850 0.709 3.140 1.985 2011 0.000 10.704 7.814 15.053 16.029 2012 0. 711 8.250 0.850 0. 730 3.140 1.992 2012 0.000 10.604 7.735 14.973 15.989 2013 0. 718 8.250 0.850 0. 752 3.140 1.999 2013 0.000 10.506 7.658 14.893 15.949 2014 0.725 8.250 0.850 0.775 3.140 2.006 2014 0.000 10.408 7.582 14.814 15.909 2015 0. 732 8.250 0.850 0.798 3.140 2.013 2015 0.000 10.311 7.506 14.736 15.870 2016 0. 739 8.250 0.850 0.822 3.140 2.020 2016 0.000 10.215 7.431 14.659 15.830 2017 0. 747 8.250 0.850 0.846 3.140 2.027 2017 0.000 10.120 7.356 14.582 15.790 2018 0. 754 8.250 0.850 0.872 3.140 2.034 2018 0.000 10.026 7.283 14.506 15.751 2019 0. 762 8.250 0.850 0.898 3.140 2.042 2019 0.000 9.933 7.210 14.431 15.711 2020 0.769 8.250 0.850 0.925 3.140 2.049 2020 0.000 9.841 7.138 14.357 15.672 2025 0.809 8.250 0.850 1.072 3.140 2.087 2025 0.000 9.394 6.788 13.996 15.477 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SL--CREATED OCT 1996 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SL -CREATED OCT 1996 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 2

MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 3 MAP STATE MODEL SCENARIO ASSUMPTIONS: PART 4 1996 DOT LOii CASE 1996 OCT LOii CASE PETROLEUM REVENUES (MILLION DOLLARS) MISCELLANEOUS VARIABLES STATE TOURISTS STATE STATE STATE STATE CORPORATE VISITING NATIONAL PRODUCTION ROYALTY BONUS PROPERTY PETROLEUM SETTLEMENT ALASKA INFLATION TAX INCOME PAYMENT TAX TAX REVENUE (THOUSAND) RATE REVENUE REVENUE REVENUE REVENUE ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1980 439.000 0.135 1980 506.500 916. 700 456.100 168.900 547.500 0.000 1981 447.000 0.102 1981 1170.200 1496.300 10.200 143.000 860.100 0.000 1982 467.000 0.060 1982 1581.700 1547.600 6. 700 142.700 668.900 0.000 1983 485.000 0.030 1983 1493.700 1472.400 49.400 152.600 236.000 0.000 1984 519.000 0.034 1984 1393.100 1403.500 13.500 131.000 265.100 0.000 1985 555.000 0.035 1985 1389.400 1392.600 15.500 128.400 168.600 0.000 1986 583.200 0.015 1986 1107.900 1107.600 46.300 113.500 133.900 460.700 1987 588.480 0.036 1987 648.500 585.700 0.700 102.500 120.400 85.200 1988 607.900 0.040 1988 818.700 926.400 7.500 96.200 158.000 329.000 1989 645.800 0.048 1989 698.800 807.900 15.200 89.700 166.000 259. 700 1990 716.400 0.052 1990 1001.600 996.500 0.000 89.800 117.200 156.800 1991 752.000 0.041 1991 1284.100 1268.800 25.200 85.000 185.100 398.600 1992 805.800 0.029 1992 1053.200 936.500 3.500 69.000 165.500 447.570 1993 826.800 0.028 1993 1017.600 948.400 51.100 66.900 834. 700 75.830 1994 919.800 0.025 1994 692.100 682.800 0.800 61.500 17.800 1995 0.029 1995 793.900 837.700 1.300 57.300 128.500 1996 955.500 0.035 1996 787.200 884.200 17.300 55.900 173.700 550.000 1997 993.720 0.035 1997 906.800 1062.200 17.500 50.900 220.000 530.000 1998 1033.468 0.035 1998 700.000 800.000 18.800 48.400 165.000 140.000 1999 1074.807 0.035 1999 650.000 775.000 20.100 45.800 160.000 230.000 2000 1117.799 0.035 2000 600.000 750.000 21.200 43.200 117.600 230.000 2001 1151.333 0.035 2001 550.000 725.000 22.100 41.100 120.200 25.000 2002 1185.872 0.035 2002 525.000 700.000 23.000 39.100 118.000 25.000 2003 1221.448 0.035 2003 500.000 680.000 24.000 37.100 115.400 25.000 2004 1258.091 0.035 2004 475.000 660.000 25.000 35.100 112.700 25.000 2005 1295.833 0.035 2005 450.000 640.000 26.000 33.200 110.300 25.000 2006 1334. 708 0.035 2006 425.000 620.000 27.100 31.200 107.300 25.000 2007 1374.748 0.035 2007 400.000 600.000 28.300 29.400 104.800 25.000 2008 1415.990 0.035 2008 375.000 580.000 29.500 27.600 102.500 25.000 2009 1458.469 0.035 2009 350.000 560.000 30.700 25.900 100.400 25.000 2010 1502.223 0.035 2010 325.000 540.000 32.000 24.300 99.300 25.000 2011 1532.268 0.035 2011 300.000 520.000 33.300 22.700 98.300 25.000 2012 1562.914 0.035 2012 290.000 500.000 34.700 21.200 97.400 25.000 2013 1594.173 0.035 2013 280.000 485.000 36.200 19.800 96.600 25.000 2014 1626.057 0.035 2014 270.000 470.000 37.700 18.400 95.800 25.000 2015 1658.579 0.035 2015 260.000 455.000 39.300 17. 100 96. 100 25.000 2016 1691. 751 0.035 2016 250.000 440.000 40.900 15.800 95.800 25.000 2017 1725.586 0.035 2017 245.000 425.000 42. 700 14.500 91.800 25.000 2018 1760.099 0.035 2018 240.000 410.000 44.500 13.300 89.600 25.000 2019 1795.302 0.035 2019 235.000 400.000 46.300 12. 100 87.600 25.000 2020 1831.208 0.035 2020 230.000 390.000 48.300 10.900 85.600 25.000 2025 2021.806 0.035 2025 200.000 340.000 53.000 10.000 80.000 25.000 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SL--CREATEO OCT 1996 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO CE96SL--CREATEO OCT 1996 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 3 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 4

PETROLEUM EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART A. FISH PROCESSING EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART DOT LOii A. BY CENSUS AREA DOT LOii BY CENSUS AREA SOUTH WESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT SOUTH WESTERN STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION 1996 8.9 0.0 5.9 3.0 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1997 8.6 0.0 5.8 2.8 1996 10. 1 1.7 2.0 6.4 1998 8.5 0.0 5.8 2.7 1997 10.0 1.7 2.0 6.4 1999 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 1998 9.9 1.6 1.9 6.3 2000 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 1999 9.8 1.6 1.9 6.2 2001 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2000 9.7 1.6 1.9 6.2 2002 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2001 9.6 1.6 1.9 6. 1 2003 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2002 9.5 1.6 1.9 6. 1 2004 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2003 9.4 1.6 1.9 6.0 2005 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2004 9.3 1. 5 1.8 5.9 2006 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2005 9.2 1. 5 1.8 5.9 2007 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2006 9.1 1. 5 1.8 5.8 2008 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2007 9.0 1. 5 1.8 5.8 2009 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2008 9.0 1.5 1.8 5. 7 2010 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2009 8.9 1.5 1. 7 5. 7 2011 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2010 8.8 1.5 1. 7 5.6 2012 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2011 8.7 1.4 1.7 5.5 2013 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2012 8.6 1.4 1.7 5.5 2014 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2013 8.5 1.4 1.7 5.4 2015 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2014 8.4 1.4 1. 7 5.4 2016 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2015 8.3 1.4 1.6 5.3 2017 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2016 8.3 1.4 1.6 5.3 2018 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2017 8.2 1.4 1.6 5.2 2019 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2018 8.1 1.3 1.6 5.2 2020 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2019 8.0 1.3 1.6 5. 1 2025 8.4 0.0 5.8 2.6 2020 7.9 1.3 1.6 5. 1 2D25 7.5 1.3 1.5 4.8 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATED FALL 96 SOURCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX -CREATED FALL 96 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL ANO ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

TIMBER EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART A. MILITARY EMPLOYMENT (THOUSANDS), PART A. DOT LOW DOT LOW BY CENSUS AREA BY CENSUS AREA SOUTH WESTERN SOUTH WESTERN TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT TOTAL SOUTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 2.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 1996 18.4 0.7 16.4 1.3 1997 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.0 1997 18.3 0.7 16.3 1.3 1998 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 1998 17.7 0.7 15.7 1.3 1999 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 1999 17. 1 0.7 15.1 1.3 2000 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 2000 16.5 0.7 14.5 1.3 2001 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.0 2001 15.9 0.7 14.0 1.3 2002 2. 1 1.5 0.6 0.0 2002 15.8 0.7 13.9 1.2 2003 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 2003 15.7 0.7 13.8 1.2 2004 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 2004 15.6 0.7 13.8 1.2 2005 2. 1 1.5 0.6 0.0 2005 15.6 0.7 13.7 1.2 2006 2.1 1.5 0.6 0.0 2006 15.5 0.6 13.6 1.2 2007 2. 1 1.4 0.6 0.0 2007 15.4 0.6 13.6 1.2 2008 2.1 1.4 D.6 0.0 2DD8 15.3 0.6 13.5 1.2 2009 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2009 15.2 0.6 13.4 1.2 2010 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2D10 15.1 0.6 13.4 1.1 2011 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2D11 15. 1 0.6 13.3 1. 1 2012 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2012 15.0 D.6 13.2 1. 1 2013 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2013 14.9 0.6 13.2 1. 1 2014 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.0 2D14 14.8 0.6 13. 1 1.1 2015 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 2015 14.7 0.6 13. 1 1. 1 2016 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 2016 14.7 0.6 13.0 1.1 2017 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 2017 14.6 0.6 12.9 1.1 2018 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 2018 14.5 D.6 12.9 1. 1 2019 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.0 2019 14.4 0.6 12.8 1.0 2020 1.9 1.3 0.6 0.D 2020 14.4 0.6 12.8 1.0 2025 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.0 2025 14.0 0.5 12.5 1.0 SOURCEo MAP HOOEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATED FALL 96 SOURCEo HAP HOOEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATED FALL 96 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONONIC RESEARCH Page

FEDERAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (THCXJSANDS), PART MINING EMPLOYMENT (THCXJSANDS), PART A. A. DOT LOW DOT LOW BY CENSUS AREA BY CENSUS AREA SCXJTH WESTERN SCXJTH WESTERN TOTAL SCXJTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT TOTAL SCXJTHEAST CENTRAL ARCTIC DOT STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION STATE DOT REGION DOT REGION REGION ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1996 1.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1996 17. 1 1.9 14. 1 1. 1 1997 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1997 16.6 1.9 13.8 1.0 1998 1. 7 0.6 0.5 0.5 1998 16.6 1.9 13.7 0.9 1999 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 1999 16.5 1.9 13.7 0.9 2000 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 2000 16.5 1.9 13.7 0.9 2001 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2001 16.4 1.9 13.6 0.9 2002 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2002 16.4 1.9 13.6 0.9 2003 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2003 16.4 1.8 13.6 0.9 2004 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2004 16.3 1.8 13.5 0.9 2005 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2005 16.3 1.8 13.5 0.9 2006 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2006 16.2 1.8 13.5 0.9 2007 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2007 16.2 1.8 13.4 0.9 2008 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2008 16.2 1.8 13.4 0.9 2009 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2009 16. 1 1.8 13.4 0.9 2010 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2010 16.1 1.8 13.3 0.9 2011 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 2011 16.0 1.8 13.3 0.9 2012 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 2012 16.0 1.8 13.3 0.9 2013 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 2013 15.9 1.8 13.2 0.9 2014 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 2014 15.9 1.8 13.2 0.9 2015 2. 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2015 15.9 1.8 13.2 0.9 2016 2. 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2016 15.8 1.8 13.1 0.9 2017 2. 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2017 15.8 1.8 13.1 0.9 2018 2. 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2018 15.8 1.8 13.1 0.9 2019 2. 1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2019 15.7 1.8 13.0 0.9 2020 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2020 15.7 1.8 13.0 0.9 2025 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 2025 15. 5 1.7 12.8 0.9 SCXJRCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATEO FALL 96 SCXJRCE: MAP MODEL INPUT SCENARIO DT96SBRX CREATED FALL 96 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page

TABLE 7. STATE UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 8. STATE GOVERNMENT MISCELLANEOUS VARIABLES (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT HIGH CASE 1996 DOT HIGH CASE REVENUES GENERAL FUND APPROPRIATIONS ITEM: ------------------------------------------------- ITEM: ------------------------------------------- PERMANENT CONST EXPEND!- INVESTMENT EARNINGS PERSONAL DEBT FUND BUDGET TURES TOTAL PETROLEUM ENDOG- ------------------- INCOME TOTAL OPERATING CAPITAL SERVICE DIVIDEND RESERVE ENOUS GEN. FUND PER. FUND TAX ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1961 192.9 0_7 0.0 1961 158.3 16.4 138.8 3_ 1 0.0 40.5 1970 568.4 30.6 0.0 1970 620.2 3510.3 3087.0 292.4 130.9 0.0 106.6 1980 1822.2 120.5 o.o 1980 1880.4 4014.2 3629.2 403.5 173.5 18.9 161.3 1981 7391.8 145.5 0.0 1981 5259.5 5540.6 4937.3 263.9 298.5 41.0 0.0 1982 7983.8 137.4 657.2 1982 4786.3 5791. 7 5047.9 286.0 357.5 100.2 0.0 1983 4275.0 201.1 246.9 1983 5385.7 5082.9 4247.9 309.0 372.8 153.3 0.0 1984 4253.3 224.0 213.5 1984 4347.0 4564.9 3860.2 324.0 380.7 0.0 0.0 1985 5067.9 221.9 272.6 1985 4385.2 4266.9 3596.1 365.2 305.6 0.0 0.0 1986 3641.4 209.9 379.5 1986 3558.0 3955.1 3420.2 283.8 251.0 0.0 0.0 1987 3077.9 198.8 481.2 1987 4659.8 2309.9 1793.9 308.2 207.8 0.0 0.0 1988 2884.2 189.2 547.8 1988 2997.2 2948.8 2493.9 285.3 169.6 0.0 0.0 1989 2934.6 168.6 551.3 1989 2720.5 2290.8 304.4 100.0 25.3 0.0 1990 2845.9 140.7 554.3 1990 2932.8 2487.0 307.9 113.4 24.6 o.o 1991 2666.5 106.8 533.4 1991 3341.2 2885.1 316.3 112.9 27.0 0.0 1992 73.8 517.5 1992 2664.6 2172.7 381. 7 77.9 32.2 0.0 1993 62.6 524.2 1993 3233.3 2817.3 341.6 42.1 32.3 0.0 1994 34.7 536.7 1994 1697.9 8.6 41.2 0.0 1995 22.9 531.9 1995 2080.0 35.9 36.5 0.0 1996 2404.1 2254.3 118.6 31.2 601.3 2267-3 1996 2405.8 2007.5 1642.0 313.9 51.6 0.0 0.0 1997 2305.7 2035.3 226.1 44.2 634.0 2694.4 1997 2228.2 2227.6 1872.4 313.8 41.4 0.0 0.0 1998 2301.1 2027.4 225.3 48.5 654.3 2683.9 1998 2296.7 1977.7 1613.3 315.2 49.2 0.0 0.0 1999 2286.2 2019.1 224.3 42.8 694.8 2667.9 1999 2281.8 1926.0 1556.5 321.6 47.9 0.0 0.0 2000 2259.3 2010.3 223.4 25.7 750.0 2585.6 2000 2255.0 1842.2 1469.7 326.1 46.4 0.0 0.0 2001 2241.9 2001.4 222.4 18. 1 743.7 2378.4 2001 2237.6 1822.3 1445.2 331.9 45.3 0.0 0.0 2002 2238.9 1992.5 221.4 25.0 770.7 2149.4 2002 2234.6 1806.9 1425.6 337.1 44.2 0.0 0.0 2003 2246.3 1985.8 220.6 39.9 797.9 2152.7 2003 2241.9 2056.4 1405.5 607. 7 43.1 0.0 269.7 2004 2287.7 2016.1 224.0 47_6 799.6 2195.2 2004 2275.7 2215.0 1345.4 828.8 40.8 0.0 499.2 2005 2300.6 2028.1 225.3 47.2 826.9 2305.3 2005 2294.6 2230.2 1329.6 860.3 40.3 0.0 521.7 2006 2343.7 2068.2 229.8 45.7 769.5 2385.1 2006 2335.5 2275.5 1341.6 894.3 39.6 0.0 543.0 2007 2404.9 2124.9 236.1 43.9 796.2 2465.7 2007 2395.4 2338.9 1364.6 935.1 39.2 0.0 569.1 2008 2808.3 2489.2 276.6 42.5 824.4 2547.0 2008 2774.6 2744.4 1590.0 987.9 39.9 126.6 599.9 2009 3052.3 2707.6 300.8 43.8 853.4 2629.1 2009 3029.1 2990.5 1725.0 1028.0 41.5 196.0 625.3 2010 3292.4 2914.5 323.8 54.0 883.0 2712.1 2010 3269.6 3232.5 1881.1 1039.7 42.5 269.2 639.3 2015 3582.5 3165.7 351.7 65.0 903.3 3141.6 2015 3570.5 3531.6 1653.1 1118.0 39.8 720.6 711.3 2020 4054.6 3586.2 398.5 69.9 972.2 3600.1 2020 4041.7 4011.3 1551.2 1269.2 38.3 1152.6 824.6 2025 4305.1 3803.3 422.6 79.2 967.7 4093.9 2025 4291.8 4268.3 1302.8 1449.1 35.6 1480.8 960.8 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. EXPENDITURES (DF.EXGFB) IS UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES. TOTAL UNRESTRICTED GENERAL FUND REVENUES CDF.RSGFB). PETROLEUM REVENUES (DF.RP9SG) EXCLUDES PERMANENT FUND AND CONSTITUTIONAL BUDGET RESERVE PORTIONS. ENDOGENOUS REVENUES CDF.RSENG) IS TOTAL NET OF PETROLEUM ANO INVESTMENT EARNINGS. INVESTMENT EARNINGS, GENERAL FUND CDF.RSIG) IS EARNINGS FROM ALL SOURCES DEPOSITED IN THE GENERAL FUND EXCEPT PERMANENT FUND EARNINGS. INVESTMENT EARNINGS, PERMANENT FUND CDF.RSIPG). PERSONAL INCOME TAX CDF.RTIS). TOTAL CDF.APGF) INCLUDES SPECIAL APPROPRIATIONS NOT SEPARATELY REPORTED. OPERATING CDF.APGFO). CAPITAL CDF.APGFC). DEBT SERVICE (DF.EXDSS) INCLUDES ONLY GENERAL OBLIGATION DEBT OF STATE. PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND CDF.EXTRN). CONSTITUTIONAL BUDGET RESERVE BALANCE - YEAR END CDF.BALDF). INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 7 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 8

TABLE 9. PERMANENT FUND (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 10. LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT HIGH CASE 1996 DOT HIGH CASE FUND ADDITIONS FROM INTERGOVERNMENTAL TAXES USE OF EARNINGS RESOURCE REVENUES TOTAL ------------------- ----------------------------- CHARGES ----------------------------- ------------------- FUND GENERAL STATE FEDERAL PETROLEUM OTHER AND MISC. EARNINGS SPECIAL BALANCE REVENUE TRANSFERS TRANSFERS PROPERTY PROPERTY OTHER DIVIDEND GENERAL REINVEST FORMULA AP PRO- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- FUND BASED PRIATION 1961 0.0 13.7 --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- 1970 370.7 124-6 15.8 0.0 30.9 98.7 1961 o.o 0.0 0.0 o.o 0.0 0.0 0.0 1980 1371.9 476.3 84.3 107.0 199.3 75.3 429.5 1970 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1981 1626.9 650.7 105.9 188.8 149.3 77.9 494.6 1980 38.0 0.0 18.9 0.2 553.4 0.0 775.5 1982 2008.1 948.6 82.5 203.2 171.7 78.0 591.1 1981 128.5 0.0 41.0 46.5 573.9 1341. 1 2722.9 1983 2248.6 1106.7 96.6 162.8 186.3 78.1 618. 7 1982 446.9 657.2 100.2 246.4 564.6 1127.8 4529.1 1984 2440.4 1128. 7 111.6 326.1 231.0 98.6 690.2 1983 659.3 246.9 153.3 355.0 589.3 559.9 6124.4 1985 2887.0 1217.9 168.7 332.7 249.0 85.3 842.1 1984 713.0 213.5 0.0 477.3 493.1 404.0 7237.3 1986 2656.1 1089.1 85.1 356. 7 285.7 96.8 786.9 1985 861.0 272.6 0.0 576.6 481. 7 392.7 8513.2 1987 2601.3 982.9 96.0 339.0 327.2 98.3 755.3 1986 1312.9 379.5 0.0 922.7 434.5 0.0 9703.1 1988 2633.0 1038.7 76.0 330.7 360.6 92.2 702.6 1987 1371.6 481.2 o.o 869.7 213. 7 1623.1 10774.6 1989 2693.2 1069.3 97.4 315.6 356.6 105.0 708.7 1988 1009.0 547.8 0.0 466.8 515.3 0.0 11755.0 1990 2575.7 952.9 106.1 290.5 318.8 112. 1 708.1 1989 1080.1 551.3 25.3 482.4 263.3 0.0 12226.2 1991 2552.3 946.7 110.0 277.9 311.5 114.3 703.2 1990 1071.4 554.3 24.6 476.6 299.7 0.0 12302.4 1992 2381.2 94.6 277.5 345.4 113.4 703.6 1991 1152.9 533.4 27.0 578.3 449.4 0.0 12853.5 1993 2482.2 130.6 279.1 364.5 125. 1 674.6 1992 1121. 0 517.5 32.2 560.5 376.9 0.0 13384.3 1994 261.6 361.1 1993 1286.4 524.2 32.3 696.0 270.5 0.0 14032.7 1995 253.4 367.0 1994 1127.7 536.7 41.2 515. 7 0.0 14502.5 1995 1013.0 531.9 36.5 411.2 0.0 14874.9 1996 2539.5 920.6 109.1 264.3 406.8 122.2 716.4 1997 2411.4 864.6 110.9 234.2 370.3 129.2 702.2 1996 1777.3 601.3 0.0 1176.0 296.3 0.0 15690.2 1998 2408.4 863.5 112.5 215.6 392.6 132. 1 692.1 1997 1466.0 634.0 0.0 832.1 333.9 0.0 16431.0 1999 2399.0 864.0 114. 1 197.5 404.5 136.5 682.4 1998 1524.7 654.3 o.o 870.4 286.1 0.0 17062.9 2000 2398.6 865.1 115. 7 180.5 421.4 142.6 673.3 1999 1582.6 694.8 0.0 887.9 282.0 0.0 17688.3 2001 2408. 1 866.2 117.3 167.0 443.8 147.4 666.3 2000 1639.8 750.0 0.0 889.8 273.5 0.0 18287.1 2002 2418.3 867.2 119.0 155.5 462.5 153.5 660.6 2001 1694.8 743.7 0.0 951.2 273.5 0.0 18928.4 2003 2432. 1 867.6 120.6 144.8 485.4 158.4 655.2 2002 1754.0 770.7 0.0 983.3 276.8 0.0 19584.6 2004 2418.5 866.2 118.5 147.6 489.4 156.6 640.2 2003 1814.4 797.9 0.0 1016.6 279.7 0.0 20255. 7 2005 2463.4 872.0 120.2 157.0 503.2 164.1 646.9 2004 1817.5 799.6 0.0 1017.9 273.3 0.0 20286.7 2006 2824.0 885.4 121.9 350.2 531.5 171.1 763.9 2005 1878. 7 826.9 0.0 1051.8 275.2 0.0 20965.6 2007 3202.3 904.1 123.6 551.0 558.4 179.7 885.5 2006 1941.5 769.5 0.0 1172.0 282.6 0.0 21750.5 2008 3425.7 1001.4 125.3 604.3 586.5 189.7 918.6 2007 2013.8 796.2 0.0 1217. 6 283.9 0.0 22557.7 2009 3609.7 1062.1 127.1 652.3 619.2 200.7 948.4 2008 2090.3 824.4 126.6 1139.3 330.5 0.0 23307.3 2010 3763.1 1096.9 128.9 696.4 655.3 209.6 976.0 2009 2160.4 853.4 196.0 1110.9 356.6 0.0 24030. 7 2015 3739.3 1120.2 138.2 557.7 778.9 246.0 898.2 2010 2229.1 883.0 269.2 1076.8 401.3 0.0 24741.3 2020 4018.6 1138.7 148.2 580.6 935.5 298.0 917.6 2015 2504.7 903.3 720.6 880.8 391.8 0.0 27442.1 2025 4152.6 1142.7 158.9 483.5 1138.3 364.1 865.0 2020 2618.8 972.2 1152.6 494.0 388.1 0.0 28254.2 2025 2526.4 967.7 1480.8 77.9 340.5 0.0 26842.1 SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MOOEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. EARNINGS CDF.RSIP). PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (DF.EXTRN). CONTRIBUTION TO GENERAL FUND (DF.RSIPG). REINVESTED EARNINGS (DF.RSIPP) INCLUDES ALL RESIDUAL EARNINGS AFTER DIVIDEND ANO ALLOCATION TO GENERAL FUND. FORMULA-BASED REVENUES (DF.RP7SP). SPECIAL APPROPRIATION REVENUES (DF.XPFCX). FUND BALANCE AT YEAR END (DF.BALPF) INCLUDES EARNINGS RESERVE. TOTAL GENERAL REVENUE (DF.RL99). STATE TRANSFERS (DF.RLT99). FEDERAL TRANSFERS (OF.RLTF). PETROLEUM PROPERTY TAXES (DF.RLPTP). OTHER PROPERTY TAXES (OF.RLPTN). OTHER TAXES CDF.RLOT). CHARGES AND MISCELLANEOUS (DF.RLMC) INCLUDE REVENUES TO SERVICE BONDS. INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 9 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 10

TABLE 11. COMPONENTS OF REAL PERSONAL INCOME (MILLION 1995 DOLLARS) TABLE 12. PER CAPITA VARIABLES (1995 DOLLARS) 1996 DOT HIGH CASE 1996 DOT HIGH CASE WAGE AND DIV., TOTAL DJSP. STATE AVERAGE SALARY NET RESIDENCE INTEREST, TRANSFERS PERSONAL PERSONAL TOTAL DISPOSABLE GENERAL PERMANENT CIVILIAN PERMANENT PAYMENTS EARNINGS ADJ. RENT INCOME INCOME INCOME INCOME FUND FUND ANNUAL FUND --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- --------- EXPEND. DIVIDEND WAGE BALANCE 1961 2146.0 2406.4 136.8 132.5 120.0 2522.1 2209.8 ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- 1970 4161.5 4533.7 154.1 405.1 290.5 5074.8 4364.4 1961 10657 9337 0 28750 0 1980 7069.2 7996.4 527.5 775.8 759.7 9005.2 7559.2 1970 16450 14147 2010 0 35451 0 1981 7817.9 8633.8 663.7 866.0 832.2 9668.0 7949.9 1980 21451 18007 4479 0 37195 1847 1982 8555.0 9452.1 756.8 973.6 1272.3 10940.8 9157.5 1981 22261 18305 12110 0 38259 6270 1983 9311.0 10499.3 834.8 1213.3 1382.1 12260.0 10419.2 1982 23564 19723 10309 1415 38939 9755 1984 9404.1 10769.7 820.5 1344.0 1190.6 12483.7 10562.2 1983 24564 20876 10791 495 39962 12271 1985 9329.5 10929.8 792.0 1472.3 1549.5 13159.5 11353.2 1984 23824 20157 8296 407 38490 13812 1986 8750.8 10471.8 711.9 1508.0 1647.3 12915.3 10978.6 1985 24195 20874 8062 501 37205 15652 1987 8281.1 9906.4 672.6 1509.0 1714.8 12457.1 10564.9 1986 23452 19936 6461 689 36187 17620 1988 8455.1 10065.8 703.8 1549.5 1852.5 12764.2 11228.3 1987 23013 19518 8609 889 35546 19905 1989 9183.9 10735.4 783.9 1641.9 1973.8 13567.5 11780.6 1988 23858 20988 5602 1024 35457 21972 1990 9150.3 10714.0 772.8 1639.0 2038. 1 13618.4 11871.9 1989 25176 21860 1023 36610 22687 1991 9191.0 10775.2 775.5 1603.1 2125.7 13728.0 12199.8 1990 24622 21464 1002 34683 22243 1992 9349.3 10903.7 781.8 1600.6 2262.5 13985.3 12463.9 1991 24101 21418 936 34102 22566 1993 9385.6 11006.3 772.0 1642.3 2426.8 14303.3 12795.5 1992 23801 21212 881 33991 22778 1994 9402.2 11084.6 772.1 1748.2 2458.1 14518.9 12954. 1 1993 23907 21386 876 33487 23454 1995 9252.1 10980.0 757.3 1735.8 2529.6 14488.0 12928.0 1994 24082 21486 890 33156 24055 1995 24007 21422 881 32288 24648 1996 9413.1 11315.9 812.9 1743.4 2666.3 15139.0 13514.6 1997 9508.3 11416.5 815. 7 1799.7 2810.4 15436.3 13759.6 1996 24787 22127 3939 984 32904 25689 1998 9649.7 11576.9 824.3 1882.3 3005.1 15864.4 14134.3 1997 25285 22539 3650 1038 33250 26914 1999 9950.3 11908.2 847.2 1999.3 3202.5 16488.3 14686.2 1998 25767 22957 3730 1063 33359 27713 2000 10194.9 12162.6 855.2 2129.6 3326.7 16989.3 15137.3 1999 26128 23272 3616 1101 33408 28030 2001 10470.6 12491.3 877.6 2280.3 3483.2 17603.1 15663.8 2000 26090 23246 3463 1152 33445 28083 2002 10718.5 12768.8 896.9 2434.0 3574.4 18105.8 16103.1 2001 26164 23281 3326 1105 33402 28134 2003 10840.7 12900.3 909.2 2577.3 3613.5 18405.5 15961.0 2002 26133 23243 3225 1112 33417 28268 2004 11005.2 13075.9 949.8 2636.8 3583.8 18565.5 16080.7 2003 26024 22567 3170 1128 33569 28640 2005 11444.6 13554.0 1040.7 2803.4 3724.9 19261.4 16676.8 2004 25800 22347 3163 1111 33791 28192 2006 11983.6 14143.6 1105.6 2999.5 3878.7 20137.5 17433.9 2005 26118 22613 3111 1121 34091 28428 2007 12816.8 15052.4 1313.0 3241.5 3969.7 21175.2 18330.3 2006 26428 22880 3065 1010 34312 28545 2008 13519.1 15850.3 1460.3 3530.5 4162.1 22308.5 19294.6 2007 26568 22998 3005 999 34733 28302 2009 13869.0 16244.9 1411.5 3799.3 4342. 1 23199.0 20052.8 2008 26576 22985 3305 982 34833 27766 2010 13784.7 16247.9 1168.4 4068.7 4525.4 23892.9 20628. 7 2009 26456 22868 3454 973 34567 27404 2015 15107.2 17750.3 1231.6 5468.8 5289.4 27480.9 23693.8 2010 26470 22854 3622 978 33918 27410 2020 17161.6 20139.2 1392.0 7452.0 6289.5 32673.1 28106.9 2015 27193 23446 3533 894 33751 27155 2025 19436.9 22826.4 1571.8 10182.8 7417.5 39010.6 33475.6 2020 28418 24446 3515 846 33674 24574 2025 29765 25542 3275 738 33533 20480 SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. SOURCE: ISER MAP MODEL SIMULATION CE96H, CREATED OCT 1996. WAGE AND SALARY PAYMENTS (OF.PIWS) IN NONAGRICULTURAL WAGE AND SALARY JOB CATEGORIES PLUS MILITARY. TOTAL INCOME (DP.PIB). NET EARNINGS (OF.PINE) IS NET LABOR AND PROPRIETORS' INCOME DISPOSABLE INCOME (DP.DPJ8). BY PLACE OF WORK. STATE GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES (OP.EXGFB). RESIDENCE ADJUSTMENT (DF.PIRAD). PERMANENT FUND DIVIDEND (DP.EXTRN). DIVIDENDS, INTEREST, AND RENT (DF.PIDJR). AVERAGE CIVILIAN ANNUAL WAGE (0F.WR97). TRANSFERS (Df.PITRAN). PERMANENT FUND BALANCE (DP.BALPF). TOTAL PERSONAL INCOME (Df.PIB). DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME (DF.DPJB) INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 11 INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH Page 12