Report No. 108 POTENTIAL THE MIDDLE EAST S IN CHEMICALS by THOMAS C. GUNN GEORGE E. HADDELAND MUHAMMAD ASHRAF May 1977 A private report by the PROCESS ECONOMICS PROGRAM STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE I MENLO PARK, CALIFORNIA
For detailed marketing data and information, the reader is referred to one of the SRI prograty specializing in marketing research. The CHEMICAL ECONOMICS HANDBOOK Program covers most major chemicals and chemical products produced in the United States and the WORLD HYDROCARBONS Program covers major hydrocarbons and their derivatives on a worldwide basis. In addition, the SRI DIRECTORY OF CHEMICAL PRODUCERS services provide detailed lists of chemical producers by company, product, and plant for the United States and Western Europe. ii
CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION........................ 1 2 SUMMARY... 3 Potential Petrochemical Economics... 4 Petrochemical Market Prospects... 10 3 GENERAL BACKGROUND.... Bahrain... Egypt... Iran... Iraq... Jordan... Kuwait... Lebanon... Oman... People's Democratic Republic of the Yemen... Qatar... Saudi Arabia... Syria... United Arab Emirates... Yemen Arab Republic... 13 16 17 18 22 24 25 27 28 28 29 30 33 35 37 4 STATUS OF PETROCHEMICAL PROJECTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST... 39 Ammonia and Derivatives... 39 Methanol... 43 Ethylene and Derivatives... 44 Aromatics... 49 5 CHEMICAL PLANT CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST... Labor Costs... Plant Operating Rates... Foreign Construction and Investment... 6 CHEMICAL PLANT DESIGN CASES FOR SAUDI ARABIA... Ammonia-Urea Complex... Process Descriptions... Project Schedule... Cost Estimates... Capital Investment... 53 56 56 60 63 63 65 67 68 68 71 vii
CONTENTS 6 CHEMICAL PLANT DESIGN CASES FOR SAUDI ARABIA (Continued) Profitability...... 74 Discussion of Profitability... 75 Methanol Facility... 78 Process Description... 78 Project Schedule... 80 Cost Estimates... 81 Capital Investment... 81 83 Profitability... 83 Ethylene-Low Density Polyethylene Complex... 88 Process Description... 88 Project Schedule... 91 Cost Estimates... 91 Capital Investment... 91 94 Profitability... ;... 98 Summation... 103 7 MARKET IMPLICATIONS TC 1985... 105 Ammonia... 105 Methanol... 114 Ethylene... 117 8 MARKET IMPLICATIONS AFTER 1985............... 125 APPENDIX A BACKGROUND DATA ON THE MIDDLE EAST........ 127 CITEDREFERENCES... 141 viii
ILLUSTRATIONS 1.1 5.1 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.1 7.2 Mideast as Defined for This Study... 2 Iranian Cost Indices for Chemical Plant Operating Labor and Consumer Prices... 62 Ammonia and Urea from Natural Gas... 66 Estimated Project Schedules and Expenditures... 143 Methanol Intermediate Pressure Process... 79 Ethylene from Ethane... 89 Low Density Polyethylene Polymerization... 90 Influence of Ethylene Project Variables on the Estimated Fifteen Year Average Return on Investment... 102 Nitrogenous Fertilizer Consumption... 111 Ethylene Consumption... 119 ix
TABLES 2.1 Estimated Capital and Time Requirements... 2.2 Estimated First-Year Direct Operating Costs... 2.3 Project Profitabilities at Steady State... 4.1 Current and Planned Projects for Ammonia and Derivatives in the Mideast... 4.2 Proposed Methanol Projects in the Mideast... 4.3 Current and Planned Projects for Ethylene and Related Products in the Mideast... 4.4 Current and Planned Aromatics Projects in the Mideast... 5.1 Comparative Wage Rates in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United States... 5.2 Relative Construction Costs in Middle East Countries.. 5.3 Nitrogen Plant Operating Rates in Developing Countries... 6.1 Proposed Basis for Chemical Projects in Saudi Arabia.. 6.2 Ammonia by Steam Reforming Natural Gas 6.3 Urea from Ammonia and Carbon Dioxide 6.4 Ammonia by Steam Reforming Natural Gas 6.5 Urea from Ammonia and Carbon Dioxide 6.6 Ammonia-Urea Project Profitability Statement... 6.7 Methanol by Steam Reforming Natural Gas 6.8 Methanol by Steam Reforming Natural Gas 6.9 Methanol Project Profitability Statement... 6.10 Ethylene from Ethane 40 45 47 51 57 58 59 64 69 70 72 73 76 82 84 86 92 Xi
TABLES 6.11 Polyethylene (Low Density) by Tubular Reactor 93 6.12 Ethylene Shipping Costs... 95 6.13 Ethylene from Ethane 96 6.14 Polyethylene (Low Density) by Tubular Reactor 97 6.15 Ethylene-Polyethylene Project Profitability Statement... 100 7.1 Metric Tons N Consumed as Fertilizer... 110 7.2 Nitrogenous Fertilizer Consumption per Hectare--1973/74... 113 7.3 Ethylene Consumption Patterns--l974... 118 A.1 General Indicators... 128 A.2 Employment in Manufacturing--1971/72... 131 A.3 Steel Consumption--l973... 132 A.4 Demurrage in Seaports... 133 A.5 International Seaborne Shipping--l973... 133 A.6 Motor Vehicles in Use--l973... 135 A.7 Railway Freight Traffic--l973... 136 A.8 Airfreight Traffic--l973... 136 A.9 Communication Systems--l973... 138 A.10 Health Care Capacity--l973... 140 Xii