A Doubly Green Revolution for the 21st Century World Agriculture and Green Growth, FARM : Foundation for world agriculture and rural life, Paris, 7th December 2010 Gordon Conway, Imperial College
The Green Revolution The Problem: How to get wheat and rice to produce high yields by taking up nitrogen without falling over.
The Green Revolution Dr Norman Borlaug Brilliant US, Mexican and Asian scientists Skilled at observation & diagnosis Knowledgeable about the literature Identified short straw genes as solution Developed shuttle breeding to speed up breeding and create day-length insensitive varieties
The Green Revolution was one of the most successful technologies of the 21st century Growth in average wheat yields during the Green Revolution 1.8 1.4 1 0.6 1961 India Pakistan 1971 1981 Real cereal prices (1990 US$)
The Limitations Focused on ideal environments Over-reliance on synthetic pesticides and fertilisers Not all the poor benefited Passed Africa by
Today About 1 billion people, or 1 in 6 of the world s population, are hungry, and we have to increase food production by 70-100% by 2050
The Drivers of the Chronic Hunger Crisis Rising populations Rising per capita incomes Growing demand for livestock products Rising fuel and fertiliser prices Growing demand for biofuels Increasing water and land scarcity Impact of climate change Slowing of productivity increases
The Challenges Ahead
Development of human population (billion) vs. Global cropland (mha) We are running out of land 3.1 1961 5.5 1993 6.1 2000 6.5 2005 6.7 2007 Increase (1961-2007 111% ) 1280 1403 1400 1421 1411 10%
Doubly Green Revolution The aim repeat the success of the Green Revolution on a global scale in many diverse localities and be equitable sustainable and environmentally friendly
Minimising the Trade-offs Productivity L Resilience L H L Stability L Equitability Sustainable Agriculture
If food prices are high why can t Developing Country farmers respond? Lack of inputs High costs of fertilisers Inappropriate technologies Poor land tenure Lack of water Poor extension Variable and unreliable markets Poor infrastructure etc But the mix varies from place to place We urgently need new diagnostics, country by country, state by state
Barriers and Opportunities Diagnostics
The twin axes of agricultural development Enabling environment PLACE e VALUE CHAIN Diagnostics & Interventio ns
The Long Value Chain Molecule (plant) Molecule (human) Genomic Molecule Trait Production Trait Farm gate Market Farm Fork Metabolic Mouth Molecule
Appropriate Interventions Technical Financial Information Regulatory Institutional Research or Training Policy
How do we judge an intervention is appropriate? Does it work; is it productive? Does it add significant value? Is it stable and resilient? Is it equitable? Are there downsides? What is the counterfactual?
A Javanese Home Garden
Conventional Technologies but more precise
Controlling Striga 2.4 m ha $380m loss Maize resistant to Imazapyr Coat seed, herbicide kills Striga BASF, Weismann. CIMMYT, IITA, NARS, NGOs
Intermediate Technologies
Treadle pump and drip irrigation
Rasike Farm, Chililila WG. MBILI maizesoyabean intercrop providing 1215 kg maize and 545 kg soyabean per ha when conventional intercrops failed. These results indicate that MBILI is a means toward greater food security. Wamalwa Farm, Siritanyi FFS, Kanduyi. Maize-groundnut intercrop providing 5330 kg maize and 1203 kg groundnut per ha. These results indicate that MBILI can produce significant food surpluses.
New Platform Technologies Biotechnologies Nanotechnologies Information and Communication Technologies
Building Sustainability into the Seed or the Animal Increasing nutrient uptake efficiency Improving nutritive value Countering the new pest and disease outbreaks Increasing drought tolerance Increasing water use efficiency
The Long Value Chain Molecule (plant) Molecule (human) Genomic Molecule Trait Production Trait Farm gate Market Farm Fork Metabolic Mouth Molecule
Crop Biodiversity International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Benefit Sharing Fund
The New Rices for Africa Monty Jones 2004
Brachiaria Plus Arachis African and Australian grasses 70 million ha in tropical America Ideal forage, But: Prone to degradation Some cultivars prone attacks by spittle bugs Some cultivars poor tolerance to acid soils
Recombinant DNA or GM Crops
Uganda
Diamond Back Moth Source: CIMBAA
Golden Rice
Other Appropriate Interventions
Input Markets Agrodealers
Output Markets Cereal Bank in Western Kenya
Loess Plateau China
All this progress is threatened by Climate Change Higher temperatures Greater & more intense rainfall Greater droughts River bank erosion Rising sea levels More intense cyclones Salt water incursions
Agriculture as a Mitigator
Win-win Solutions Conservation Farming in Zimbabwe Ploughed 3 years minimum
2-4 tonnes C /ha
Temperature and rainfall projections, 1980 to 1999 versus 2080 to 2099 Values for scenario A1B, averaged over 21 AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (IPCC 4 WG I Ch 11)
Combating the Stress of Increasing Drought Drought tolerant varieties and breeds Drought tolerant cropping and farming systems Small-scale sustainable water supplies
In many places droughts and floods will occur with greater frequency and intensity
Goddard GHCN_GISS_HR2SST_1200km _Anom07_2010_2010_1951_1980 Russia and Pakistan, 2010 Logistics cluster, Islamabad
Rice in a Flood Hattori et l 2009 Nature 460, 1026-1030
How do we build Resilient Livelihoods?
Please Google Montpellier Panel Report it is on Imperial College website