252 - A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years and its regional implications Jorgen Randers Professor Center for Climate Strategy Norwegian Business School BI J Randers 1 Regional Forum Tampere Regional Council, Finland September 6 th, 212
12 scenarios for the 21 st century J Randers 2
Limits Scenario 1: Resource crisis 3: Industrial output 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 5 1 2 2: Food output 3 1 4 1: Population 1 2 3 2 1 5 2 5 3 4 4: Pollution level 3 4 4 19 195 2 25 Year 21 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 3
Limits Scenario 9: Sustainability 5 5: Nonrenewable resources 5 1 2 3 2: Food output 3: Industrial output 5 1 2 3 5 1: Population 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 4 4: Pollution level 19 195 2 25 Year 21 4 Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 3 year update, 24 J Randers 4
My perspective: A small and fragile world Source: KPMG, 21 J Randers 5
Limits scenarios and history 1972 to 212 Source: Graham Turner, GAIA, no 2, 212 J Randers 6
For all numerical data and the forecast model, consult the book website www.252.info
The five regions used in the 252 forecast Region Population 21 GDP 21 GDP per person 21 (billion people) (trillion $ pr year) US,3 13 41 China 1,3 1 7 OECD-less-US (1),7 22 3 BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6 ROW (3) 2,1 8 4 Sum world 6,9 67 1 (1 $ pr person-year) (1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc (2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies (3) The remaining ca 14 countries of the world J Randers 8
World population will peak in 24 Gpersons 1 % / yr 5, 8 Population ( scale) 4, 6 3, 4 Birth rate (scale ) 2, 2 Death rate 1, g12821 252 database with slides Graph 1 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25, Figure 4-1 Population World 197 to 25 J Randers 9
Fertility decline in EU-15 195 to 21 2,5 Total fertility 2, Replacement fertility = 2.1 children per woman 1,5 Long term trend 1,,5, 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 Figure A4-1 Total Fertility EU15 195 to 21 Definition: Total fertility = Number of children per woman during reproductive age POPULATION_BY_AGE_FEMALE_12522.xls J Randers 1
World productivity growth will slow down % / yr 5, 1,$ / person-yr 3, 4, 3, Growth in labor productivity ( scale) Gross labor productivity (scale ) 2,4 1,8 2, 1,2 1, Long term trend in productivity growth ( scale),6 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 3, 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25, Figure 4-3a: Gross Labour Productivity World 197 to 25 Definition: Gross labour productivity = GDP divided by population aged 15 to 65 years J Randers 11
Slowing productivity growth, US 195-21 11, 8,8 6,6 Rate of growth in labour productivity (in %/year) 4,4 2,2, -2 -,2-4 -,4 g1222 Penn_World_Table_ANNUAL_US_Productivity.xls -6-,6 195 197 199 21 Figure A4-2 Change in gross labour productivity US 195 to 21 Definition: Labour productivity = GDP divided by People aged 15 to 65 J Randers 12
World GDP growth will slow down G$ / yr 1,$ / person-yr 15 6, Gp 6. 12 9 Population aged 15 to 65 (scale ) World GDP ( scale) 4,8 3,6 4.8 3.6 6 2,4 2.4 3 Gross labor productivity (scale ) 1,2 1.2 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 3a 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Figure 4-3b: Gross Domestic product World 197 to 25 Definition: GDP = Population aged 15 to 65 years multiplied with Gross labour productivity,. J Randers 13
Share of GDP in investment will grow % 4 G$ / yr 15 32 24 Investment share in GDP ( scale) World GDP (scale ) 12 9 16 Consumption (scale ) 6 8 3 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 4 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Figure 4-4: Production and Consumption World 197 to 25 J Randers 14
Energy use will peak in 24 Gtoe / yr 2 toe / M$ 3 G$ / yr 3 16 12 Energy intensity = Energy use per unit of GDP (scale ) World energy use ( scale) 24 18 24 18 8 12 12 4 World GDP (scale ) 6 6 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Figure 5-1: Energy Use World 197 to 25 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 6 J Randers 15
World CO 2 emissions will peak in 23 GtCO2 / yr 5 tco2 / toe 5 Gtoe/yr 25 4 3 CO2 emissions Climate intensity ( scale) 4 2 = CO2 per unit of energy (scale ) 3 15 2 2 1 1 Energy use (scale ) 1 5 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 9 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Figure 5-3: CO2 Emissions from Energy Use World 197 to 25. J Randers 16
Temperature and sea-level will rise ppm 5 deg C 2,5 m 1.5 4 3 CO2 in atmosphere ( scale) Temperature rise (scale ) 2, 1,5 1.2.9 2 Sea level rise (scale ) 1,.6 1,5.3 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 1 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25, Figure 5-4: Climate Change World 197 to 25 J Randers 17
Food will satisfy demand but not need Gt / yr 12,5 Gha 2, t/ha-yr 1 1, Food production ( scale) 1,6 8 7,5 Cultivated land (scale ) Gross yield (scale ) 1,2 6 5,,8 4 2,5,4 2 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 11, 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25, Figure 6-1: Food Production World 197 to 25 J Randers 18
Average disposable income 197 to 25 J Randers 19
GDP five regions 197 to 25 less US J Randers 2
Gtoe / yr 6,5 Fossil fuels will prevail 5,2 Coal use 3,9 Oil use 2,6 1,3 Gas use Renewable energy use Nuclear use, 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 Figure 5-2: Energy Uses World 197 to 252 g12821 252 database with slides Graph 8 J Randers 21
CO2 emissions per person 197 to 25 J Randers 22
What should be done? - Globally To create a better world for our grandchildren Have fewer children, especially in the rich world Reduce the ecological footprint, first by slowing the use of coal, oil and gas Construct a low-carbon energy system in the poor world, paid for by the rich Create new (supranational?) institutions that can counter national short-termism Develop a new goal (life satisfaction?) for rich world development J Randers 23
Tasks for local politicians in Finland Reduce local greenhouse gas emissions - Direct regulations or a price on GHG emissions Make the economy greener (i.e. reduce the CO2 per GDP). Same as 1! - Support a shift of investment flows to green growth Educate Finnish voters to be more long term - Argue for stronger (supranational) government Make life better for the average Finnish citizen a) when population growth stops - Higher pension age, larger centers, resist old ways b) when GDP growth stops - Focus on well-being, redistribution, shorter work year J Randers 24
I don t like what I see! jorgen.randers@bi.no www.252.info J Randers 25