Feasibility and costs of proposed emission ceilings in the Netherlands National analysis based om national data 18 May 211 Winand Smeets 1
National Baseline 22 29: pre-crisis national submitted to IIASA This was used for the CIAM-report march 211 high GDP-growth (2.9% /25-22) Renewable Energy Target 22 only partly achieved (for 35%) 21: new post-crisis was developed intermediate GDP-growth (1.6% /25-22) RET is fully achieved (plus EU GHG-targets) latest data from Dutch Emission Inventory are included 21: Dutch Technical Control Options Database was updated Results are based on the new National and updated Control Options Database 2 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
New Post-Crisis compared to Pre-Crisis Pre crisis NL- 22 Post crisis NL- 22 Difference Reason change in emissions kton kton kton SO 2 49 41-8 Crisis, RET, EI NO x 27 179-28 Crisis, RET, EI NH 3 131 119-12 EI (agric.) VOC 162 154-8 EI, crisis PM 2.5 16.6 12.6-4 EI (agric.) RET = full achievement of Renewable Energy Target EI = latest data from Emission Inventory included 3 18 15 May maart 211 Winand Winand Smeets Smeets P
vs. Primes/ 22 Primes/Gains National Difference Difference 22 22 Kt kt kt % SO 2 32 41 +9 + 28% NO x 169 179 +1 +6% NH 3 125 119-6 -5% VOC 156 154-2 -1% PM 2.5 15.7 12.6-3 -19% 4 18 15 May maart 211 Winand Winand Smeets Smeets P
Explanation of higher emission projections for SO2/NOx in Dutch SO2 CIAM-report underestimates emissions for: base metal (1.7 vs. 7.6 kt NL-) explained by lower projected production in the ferrous and non-ferrous metal industry (factor 3) and lower projected e.f. in the non-ferro (factor 4). refineries (11 vs. 15 kt NL-) explained by lower projected e.f. (factor 1.8) NOx CIAM-report underestimates emissions for: base metal (due to lower projected production metal industry) refineries (due to stricter projected e.f.) transport (due to different activity levels and e.f.) 5 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Mid Ceilings - Emission Reduction Requirements based on and National SO2 emissions (kt) 6 5 4 3 2 32 3 41 21 ceiling 22 Mid-ceiling 2 1 6 18 Datum May 211 auteur; Winand wijzig Smeets via View > Header and Footer Footer; wijzig via View > Header and Footer
Mid Ceilings - Emission Reduction Requirements Based on Primes/ Based on Emission Reduction Requirement (kt) Emission Reduction Requirement (kt) cuts in emissions (kt) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1 7 14 1 cuts in emissions (kt) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 9 1 1 12 SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 7 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Mid Ceilings Additional costs excl. VOC (M /year) Based on Primes/ Based on Additional costs (M /year) Additional costs (M /year) Costs (Meuro/year) 3 25 2 15 1 5 5 1 6 26 16 11? 5?? 1? SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 Total SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 Total Costs (Meuro/year) 3 25 2 15 1 8 Datum 18 May 211 auteur; Winand wijzig Smeets via View > Header and Footer Footer; wijzig via View > Header and Footer
Technical feasibility based on the National Percentage of MTFR needed to achieve L*/M/H*-ceilings perecntage of needed 2% 1% % Range shows results for high and low economic growth SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2,5 Low*-ceiling Mid ceiling High* ceiling 9 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Sensitivity analysis co-benefits Renewable Energy Target The Dutch assumes that the RET wil fully be achieved with only domestic measures (more wind, more biomass) leading to the replacement of coal and natural gas, and thus lower SO2/NOx-emissions However, part of the RET may be achieved by importing renewable energy from abroad, resulting in less co-benefits and thus higher emissions in the Netherlands If half of the RET would be achieved abroad emissions for SO2/NOx will increase with 5 kt each Costs for SO2/NOx (for MID-ceilings) would double from 25 to 5 M /year 1 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Mid Ceilings Additional air pollution costs (M /year) (RET fully achieved in 22) (RET for 5% achieved in 22) Additional costs (M /year) Additional costs (M /year) Costs (Meuro/year) 6 5 4 3 2 1 26 16 11 51 29 23 SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 Total SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 Total Costs (Meuro/year)?? 6 5 4 3 2 1 11 Datum 18 May 211 auteur; Winand wijzig Smeets via View > Header and Footer Footer; wijzig via View > Header and Footer
Conclusions based on the national baseline Proposed Mid-ceilings appear to be technically feasible, except for VOC. The mid-voc-ceiling seems to be technically infeasible considering the control options in the National database. Based on the national baseline, much more national measures for SO2/NOx will be needed than assumed by the CIAM-report, which will lead to higher costs, and could lead to a loss in competitiveness. If half of the Renewable Energy Target would be achieved with imports of renewable energy, ceilings for SO2/NOx will still be technical feasible, but costs to achieve these two ceilings wil double. 12 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Thanks for your attention 13 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
? VOC reduction costs are uncertain: National and Gains VOC cost curve are quite different? The national database considers less VOC-options with lower cost estimates Differences are not yet explained and need further study Options considered in National database are: NL-measures (3 kt) Further reduction solvent use industry (paints, cleaning and degreasing) EU-measures (7 kt) Review EU paints directive in line with Ökopol study may 21 Ökopol-plus: Replacement of deosprays with deorollers (no cost estimate in national curve) costs (Meuro/year) 1 8 6 4 2 VOC (cumulative) cost curves 22 H* M L* 12 13 14 15 16 17 emissions (kiloton) GAINS cost curve National cost curve 14 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Based on the Dutch Control Options Database the mid- VOC-ceiling is not feasible costs (Meuro/year) 3 2 1 H* M L* VOC cost curve Intermediate growth (1.6%) High growth (2.9%) EU measures National measures 13 14 15 16 17 emissions (kiloton) 15 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Low* Ceilings - Emission Reduction Requirements Based on Primes/ Emission Reduction Requirement (kt) Based on Emission Reduction Requirement (kt) 16 16 cuts in emissions (kt) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 6 4 cuts in emissions (kt) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 9 9 2 SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 SO2 NOX NH3 VOC PM2.5 16 18 May 211 Winand Smeets
Mid Ceilings - Emission Reduction Requirements based on and National NH3 VOC emissions (kt) 15 1 5 125 7 kt 1 kt 14 kt 12 kt 112 119 1 emissions (kt) 2 15 1 5 156 125 154 144 17 Datum 18 May 211 auteur; Winand wijzig Smeets via View > Header and Footer Footer; wijzig via View > Header and Footer
Mid Ceilings - Emission Reduction Requirements based on and National PM2.5 2 16 1 kt kt emissions (kt) 15 1 5 13 13 11 18 Datum 18 May 211 auteur; Winand wijzig Smeets via View > Header and Footer Footer; wijzig via View > Header and Footer
Mid Ceilings - Emission Reduction Requirements based on and National SO2 NOX 6 3 emissions (kt) 5 4 3 2 32 3 41 21 22 2 emissions (kt) 25 2 15 1 17 15 179 125 1 5 19 Datum 18 May 211 auteur; Winand wijzig Smeets via View > Header and Footer Footer; wijzig via View > Header and Footer