Virtual Water in the Arab Region World Water Forum 4 2 March 26 Mexico City, Mexico Presented by Ahmad Wagdy, Ph.D. Prof of Hydraulics, Cairo University Project Director, UNDP
Characteristics of the Arab Region 5% of the world s s population living on 1% of the area of the globe while enjoining less than 1% of the global water resources. Extreme aridity (87% deserts), allowing an average per capita share of water resources of 86 m 3 ; less than 1% of average global share. 17 countries out of 22 are currently below the water stress threshold, and by year 225 only 2 countries will exceed the 1 m 3 /cap/y limit 5% of the regional precipitation occurs in Sudan, while 7 % of the region's IRWR are generated in Iraq, Sudan & Morocco Population growth is estimated at 2.7% annually with pronounced urbanization trends
Characteristics of the Arab Region Irrigated agriculture consumes 86% of total water resources. More than 3% of labour force Food production is dependant on precipitation (wheat for example is 8% rain-fed). Rainfall variability and drought cycles create severe instabilities in food production and unfavourable impacts on food security. A strategic aspiration to attain food self- sufficiency has for long dominated the decision making levels in the Arab region. The region imports more than 5 percent of its food requirement. External imposed sanctions and embargo create an environment of insecurity.
Some Statistics Food: Main Crop Categories Animal Produce Production, Yield, Areas, Exports, Imports, Balance
CEREALS Production and Export/Import Balance of Cereals for Arab Countries 45 7 4 391 6 Population in Millions 35 3 25 2 52417.97 37579.39 32181 3418 365 21929.64 192 227 268 495 46126.66 31 Population Cereal Production Interpolated Production Balance Deficit Predicted Deficit 5436 5 4 3 2 1 Production (1 MT) 15 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Year
MEAT Meat Production and Export/Import Balance for Arab Countries Production (1 MT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Meat Production Interpolated Production Balance Deficit Predicted Deficit Population 3417 3862 Production 4876 262 31 6725 Population 391 45 4 35 3 25 Population in million 2 1195 1 192 227 1172 2 747 12 879 15 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Year
VEGITABLES Vegitables Production and Export/Import Balance for Arab Countries Production (1 MT) 6 5 4 3 2 234 Meat Production Interpolated Production Balance Deficit Predicted Deficit Population 25478 Production 33123 262 31 4372 Population 391 45 4 35 3 25 Population in million 1 227 2 477 192 348 332 1582 1257 15 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Year
FISH Production (1 MT) 45 4 35 3 25 2 15-1 Fish Production and Export/Import Balance for Arab Countries 1433 192 Fish Production Interpolated Production Balance Deficit Predicted Deficit Population 1858 227 Production 2268 1 25 329 5 127-17 -78-143 2 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215-5 262 Year 31 336 Population 391 45 4 35 3 15 Population in million
Mauritania Yemen Meat Production by Country Meat Production by Country Meat Production Statistics for Different Arab Countries 15 13 11 9 7 Production Balance (1MT) 5 3 1 Jordan Emirates Bahrain Tunisia Algeria Djibouti Saudia Sudan Syria Somalia Iraq Oman Qatar Kuwait lebanon Libya Egypt Moroco -1
Yemen Fish Production by Country Fish Production by Country Fish Production Statistics for Different Arab Countries 9 6 3 Production Deficit (1MT) Jordan Emirates Bahrain Tunisia Algeria Djibouti Saudia Sudan Syria Somalia Iraq Oman Qatar Kuwait lebanon Libya Egypt Moroco Mauritania -3
Yemen Vegetables Production by Country Vegetables Production by Country Vegitables Statistics for Different Arab Countries 17 15 13 11 9 7 Production Deficit (1MT) 5 3 1 Jordan Emirates Bahrain Tunisia Algeria Djibouti Saudia Sudan Syria Somalia Iraq Oman Qatar Kuwait lebanon Libya Egypt Moroco Mauritania -1
Main Crop Groups Main Crop Groups: Areas, Yield, and Production For Different Arab Countries (21) (1 MT, Ha) 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 Yield (Kg/Ha) Cereals Tubers Sugar Crops Pulses Oil Seed Vegetables Fruits Fibres Area Production Yeild Tobacco Fodder
Wheat Production Yields Wheat Production Yields 7 Wheat: Areas, Yield, and Production For Different Arab Countries (21) 25 2 15 1 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jordan Emirates Tunisia Algeria Saudi Arabia Sudan Syria Somalia Iraq Oman Palestine Qatar Kuwait Lebanon Libya Egypt Morocco Yemen (1 MT, Kg/Ha) Area (1 Ha) 3 Yield Prod. Area
Animal Production Animal Production for the Arab Region 25 Product.(1MT) 2 15 1 5 94-98 1999 2 21 Total Meat Red meat White meat Milk Eggs Fish
Exports / Imports Exports Quantity (t) Water (mcm) Plant 816 18455.54 Animal 7452 38628.54 Total Agricultural 15468 5784.8 Quantity (1 t) Virtual Water (mcm) 6 5 4 3 2 1 Exported Agricultural Produce Plant Animal Total Agricultural Quantity (t) Water (mcm) Imported Agricultural Produce Quantity (1 t) Virtual Water (mcm) 3 25 2 15 1 5 Plant Animal Total Agricultural Imports Quantity (t) Water (mcm) Plant 67515 96697 Animal 27397 1954 Total Agricultural 94912 29298 Quantity (t) Water (mcm) 292 BCM of water is required to compensate for imports
Deficit in Agricultural Produce Deficit in Agricultural Produce Balance -25-2 -15-1 -5 Deficit Quantity (t) Water (mcm) Plant -59499-78242 Animal -19946-156772 Total Agricultural -79444-23514 Plant Animal Total Agr. Quantity (t) Water (mcm) Crops contribute to 75% of the total deficit in terms of quantity (Tons) While Animal Produce contribute to 25% of Deficit 235 BCM of water is required to bridge the food gap 67% of virtual water for Animal produce
Agricultural Produce Balance Export / Import Agricultural Produce Trade Balance 3 2 1 Exp Imp Exp Dfc Exp Dfc -1-2 -3 Dfc Imp Imp Plant Animal Total Agricultural Quantity Virtual Water 1. Imports: 23.5 BUSD while Exports: 4.92 BUSD 2. Food Gap: 8 M t, 18.5 BUSD 3. Crops Food Gap: 13.43 BUSD (72.3%)
Quantity (1T) Agricultural Produce Balance 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Agricultural Exports / Imports Balance Exports Imports Deficit G rains Pota to Suga r Bean s O il Se eds Veg Oils Veg etables Fruits Fib ro us Tob acc o co ffee Te a Coco o Liv esto ck c attle Liv esto ck s heep Red meat Poultry Dairy Eggs Cereals: Imports: 5 Mt, Exports: 2.4 Mt, Deficit: 47.6 Mt or 8% of Crops deficit and 6% of total deficit and a Cereal bill of 7.33 BUSD per year (3% of the total food bill)
Agricultural Produce Balance Agricultural Exports/Imports Balance (excluding cereals) Quantity (t) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8-1 Exports Imports Deficit Potato Sugar Beans Oil Seeds Veg Oils Vegetables Fruits Fibrous Tobacco coffee Tea Cocoo Livestock cattle Livestock sheep Red meat Poultry Dairy Eggs Sugar: Imports: 5.9 Mt, Exports:.5 Mt, Deficit: 5.4 Mt or 9% of Crops deficit and 6% of total deficit Dairy Products: Imp: 1 Mt, Exp:.8 Mt, Deficit: 9.2 Mt or 45% of Animal Prod. deficit and 11.5% of total deficit
Virtual Water Estimates Virtual WaterRequired for Agricultural Produce for the Arab Region Virtual Water (mcm) 16 12 8 4-4 -8 Exports Imports Deficit Grains P otato S ugar Be ans Oil S eeds V eg Oils V egeta ble s Fruits Fibrous Tobacc o coffee Tea Coc oo Livestock cattle Livestock sheep Re d meat P oultry Da iry E ggs 37 BCM of water is required for self sufficiency of Cereals, 11 BCM for Dairy Products, 121 BCM for Livestock Cattle (61% of the total water required for self sufficiency of Animal Produce)
Poultry Dairy Eggs Red meat Virtual Water Estimates Virtual Water Estimates 27 24 21 18 15 12 9 6 3-3 Virtual Water Requirements (excluding grains) Exports Imports Deficit Potato Sugar Beans Oil Seeds Veg Oils Vegetables Fruits Fibrous Tobacco coffee Tea Cocoo Livestock cattle Livestock sheep Virtual Water (mcm)
Crop Per Drop Crop Per Drop Irrigation Water per Unit of Agricultural Produce 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Exports Imports Water Consumption (m3/t) Grains Potato Sugar Beans Oil Seeds Veg Oils Vegetables Fruits Fibrous Tobacco coffee Tea Cocoo
Animal Produce Per Drop Animal Produce Per Drop Irrigation Water per Unit of Animal Produce 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Exports Imports Water Consumption (m3/t) Livestock cattle Livestock sheep Red meat Poultry Dairy Eggs
Economic Return; Crops Economic Return Per Unit of Irrigation Water 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Exports Imports Economic Return (L.E./m3) Grains Potato Sugar Beans Oil Seeds Veg Oils Vegetables Fruits Fibrous Tobacco coffee Tea Cocoo
Economic Return; Animal Produce Economic Return Per Unit of Irrigation Water 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Exports Imports Economic Return (L.E./m3) Livestock cattle Livestock sheep Red meat Poultry Dairy Eggs
Economic Return Economic Return Economic Return Per Unit of Irrigation Water 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Exports Imports Economic Return (L.E./m3) Grains Potato Sugar Beans Oil Seeds Veg Oils Vegetables Fruits Fibrous Tobacco coffee Tea Cocoo Livestock cattle Livestock sheep Red meat Poultry Dairy Eggs
Food Security Food security does not mean self-sufficiency. sufficiency. Food security is determined by the ability of a country to ensure that all people at all times have both physical and economic access to fulfill basic food needs: Food availability either from domestic production or/and imports, Stability of food supply within season and between seasons, Accessibility to all segments of the population through distribution systems and reasonable prices and Food Affordability.
Food Security / Water Security Arab Region imports more than 5% its food including cereals, sugar, vegetable oil, meat and dairy products. The average annual food import quantity for the period (21 23) is estimated at 95 million tons, of which 68 million tons are of plant origin, while 27 million tons are attributed to animal protein. The virtual water required to compensate the imports is estimated at about 292 bcm,, or roughly equivalent to the existing available water resources for the region. Few countries posses potential for more food production but lack financial and human resources. The region urgently needs to formulate strategies (local and regional) to expand its exports to counterbalance the food import bill.