Outlook for Petrochemical - PDF Free Download

Outlook for Petrochemical Anshuman Agrawal Manager, Downstream aagrawal@stratasadvisors.com sadownstream@stratasadvisors.com M +91 989 194 4883 T +65 635 361 27 www.stratasadvisors.com UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM FUEL & TRANSPORT

Supply, Demand and Flows

Olefin Supply, Demand Regional (218-24) Units MMTPA Asia supply increases by 61 MMTPA, demand increases 61 MMTPA 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Supply Demand 218 22 225 23 24 Africa Asia Europe Latin America Middle East North America Russia & CIS Middle East Long term Supply increases 32 MMTPA, demand increases 22MMTPA Short term S/D +9/+9.4 MMTPA Source: Stratas Advisors Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 6

Olefin Supply, Demand Middle East (218-24) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Supply Demand Units MMTPA Demand Demand to grow by 22 MMTPA Supply Supply to grow by 32 MMTPA 218 22 225 23 24 Supply Demand Source: Stratas Advisors Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 7

Ethylene Trade Flow From Middle East (218, 22, 225, 23, 24) Units MMTPA Middle East to North America : Middle East to Europe: Middle East to Russia & CIS:.5,.5,.3,.7,.4 Middle East to Asia: - 2.5, 1.5, 2.6, 6.8, 12 Middle East to Africa : Middle East to Latin America : Total Export from Middle East: 3, 2, 2.9, 7.5, 12.4 Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 8

Propylene Trade Flow From Middle East (218, 22, 225, 23, 24) Units MMTPA Middle East to North America : Middle East to Europe : Middle East to Russia & CIS :.4,.3,.3,.3,.5 Middle East to Asia : 2.3, 2.3, 2.2, 2.5, 2.5 Middle East to Africa : Middle East to Latin America : Total Export from Middle East: 2.7, 2.6, 2.5, 2.8, 3 Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 9

Aromatics Demand Global (218-24) Total Demand to grow by 43 MMTPA 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Units MMTPA 218 22 225 23 24 Benzene Xylene Toluene Xylene demand growing 1.4% than others aromatics growing 1.2% annually Source: Stratas Advisors Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 1

Aromatics Supply, Demand Regional (218-24) Units MMTPA Asia supply increases by 36 MMTPA, demand increases 58 MMTPA 25 2 15 1 5 Supply Demand Europe supply increases by 5 MMTPA, Middle East by 3 MMTPA, North America by 2 MMTPA 218 22 225 23 24 Africa Asia Europe Latin America Middle East North America Source: Stratas Advisors Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 11

Aromatics Supply, Demand Middle East (218-24) 25. 2. 15. 1. 5. Supply Demand Units MMTPA Xylene Demand to grow by 3 MMTPA, Supply to grow by 1.6 MMTPA Benzene Demand to grow by 2.1 MMTPA, Supply to grow by 1.2 MMTPA. 218 22 225 23 24 Benzene Xylene Toluene Source: Stratas Advisors Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 12

Aromatics Trade Flow To Middle East (218, 22, 225, 23, 24) Units MMTPA North America to Middle East : Europe to Middle East :.2,.5, 1.5, 3,.3 Russia & CIS to Middle East: Asia to Middle East : 5.9, 6.3, 7, 5.7, 9 Africa to Middle East : Latin America to Middle East : Total Import to Middle East: 6.1, 6.8, 8.5, 8.7, 9.3 Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 13

CAPEX Requirements

Major Petrochemical Projects- Middle East S. No. Country Company Location Facility 1 Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco (Total SATORP) Jubail Source: Stratas Advisors Petrochemical Plant Expected Completion 222 2 Saudi Arabia SABIC Jubail Ethylene Oxide, 22 Butadiene 3 Saudi Arabia Midchem Riyadh Chloro Alkali 221 4 Saudi Arabia Dow Chemical Jubail Polymer 5 Saudi Arabia IMC Jubail Methanol 219 6 Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco (Ras Tanura Refinery) Ras Tanura Aromatics 219 7 Saudi Arabia Petro Raibagh Refinery & Petrochemical complex Rabigh Aromatics 219 8 Saudi Arabia Farabi Petrochemical Company Yanbu LAB 221 9 Saudi Arabia Advance Petrochemical Company Jubail Pyoil & Pygas plant 221 1 Saudi Arabia Yansab Yanbu Ethylene Glycol 219 11 Saudi Arabia Saudi Kayan Jubail Jubail Ethylene Oxide 219 12 Saudi Arabia Saudi Aramco (Jizan Refinery) Jizan Peroleum Refinery 219 Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 15

Petrochemical Projects- Middle East S. No. Country Company Location Facility Expected Completion 13 UAE DUGAS- IG Petrochemical Dubai Maleic Anhydride 223 14 UAE Adnoc & Borealis Abu Dhabi Petrochemical Plant223 15 UAE Borouge Abu Dhabi PE, PP, Butadiene 222 16 UAE Adnoc & CEPSA Ruwais LAB 223 17 Bahrain NOGA Aromatic Complex Manama Aromatics 22 18 Oman OMPET Sohar PTA/ PET plant 223 19 Oman ORPIC Duqm Refinery & Petrochemical Complex Duqm Aromatics 225 2 Oman Mingyuan Holding Group Duqm Petrochemical plant 222 21 Oman Project Development and management international Adam Dakhliya Chloro Alkali 221 22 Oman Orpic - Liwa Plastic industrial complex Sohar PE, PP 22 23 Kuwait KIPC Al Zour Petrochemical Complex Al Zour Petrochemical Plant224 Source: Stratas Advisors Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 16

Key Takeaways

Key Takeaways Olefins Global ethylene demand is forecasted to increase by 2.7% annually Global propylene demand is forecasted to increase by.8% annually Middle East is the overall exporter of olefins Propylene export from the region is forecasted to remain constant Ethylene export is forecasted to increase 12% annually due to increasing supply from the region In Middle East, Saudi Arabia is accounting for 58% ethylene production, highest in the region, Saudi is benefitted by the availability of cheap ethane In long term Middle East required investment is US $15 billion for olefins plants (for supply of 3 MMTPA of ethylene, 2 MMTPA of propylene) Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 2

Key Takeaways Aromatics Benzene, Toluene demand is expected to grow 1.2% annually, whereas Xylene demand is forecasted to grow by 1.4% Cracker Margin Naphtha based cracker facilities will be economically benefitted next few years because of low crude oil prices Longer term ethane base cracker facility will be economically benefitted, as the expected price differential between natural gas and crude oil will increase Stratas Advisors. All rights reserved. 21

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