Monitoring production of main producing countries Bruno Buffaria HoU Arable Crops European Commission Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development AGRISAT workshop, 13/10/2010
13-14 Oct 2010 CONTENT Context World figures World prices Information and data flow Final comments
2010/11 fcst structural aspects 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 13-14 Oct 2010 World cereal production evolution 1999-2010 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 est Wheat Maize Barley Other cereals 2001/02 1999/00 2000/01 1000 tonnes
structural aspects World cereal production and consumption 2000-2010 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 mio t 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 est 2010/11 fcst Total production Ending Stocks Total Consumption Wheat Consumption Maize Consumption 13-14 Oct 2010
Others structural aspects 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 13-14 Oct 2010 Main cereal producers Average 2005/2006 to 2009/2010 Brazil Canada Ukraine Mexico Argentina Australia Turkey Nigeria Pakistan Wheat Maize Barley Others Russia India China 1000 tonnes United States EU
structural aspects World cereal main exporters United States Argentina Canada EU extra-trade Russia Australia Ukraine Brazil China World top-exporters of cereals (excluding rice) Average 2005/06 to 2009/10 Turkey India Others 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 1000 t 13-14 Oct 2010
13-14 Oct 2010 structural aspects World cereal main importers % Japan EU extra-trade Mexico Egypt South Korea Saudi Arabia Brazil Algeria Iran Indonesia China United States Morocco Colombia Malaysia Iraq Nigeria Syria Israel Philippines Peru Others 6.0% 5.8% 5.6% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.3% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 10.4% World top-importers of cereals (excluding rice) Average 2005/06 to 2009/10 In % of total world trade 31.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
EU 27 TRADE 40 mio t 30 20 C O A R S E Exports EU27 Cereals exports and imports by marketing year included processed products in grain equivalent 10 W H E A T 0 W C -10-20 -30 Imports Source: EUROSTAT - 08/2010 (some data missing for 06/2010) Export coarse grains Export wheat Import coarse grains Import wheat 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 13-14 Oct 2010
13-14 Oct 2010 500 400 300 MMT 200 Wheat balance sheet (IGC) Source: IGC Sept report World Ending Stocks of which 5 major exporters World Production World Consumption 686 677 649 638 196 609 613 183 168 121 657 644 700 680 660 640 MM T 620 600 100 39 64 70 54 580 0 2007 2008 2009 (est) 2010 (fcst) 560
13-14 Oct 2010 Wheat production in main exporters (IGC) 160 140 135,5 120 100 Mio t 80 60 40 20 61,5 21,5 24 12,5 42 17,5 11,5 0 EU USA Canada Australia Argentina Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan Source: IGC Sept report 2008 2009 2010
13-14 Oct 2010 Maize balance sheet (IGC) 500 Source: IGC Sept report 860 837 840 400 822 824 820 300 MMT 795 775 798 781 810 World Ending Stocks of which US World Production 800 MM T 780 200 100 137 154 143 World Consumption 131 760 740 41.3 42.5 40.7 40.1 720 0 2007 2008 2009 (est) 2010 (fcst) 700
04/10/2010 Wheat export prices since 1/6/2001 550 500 /t France Rouen /t Germany Hamburg 450 US$/t US HRW Gulf US$/t US SRW Gulf 400 /t US SRW Gulf 350 300 Differences in average and variability (break point summer 2006) 250 200 150 100 04/06/2001 04/10/2001 04/02/2002 04/06/2002 04/10/2002 04/02/2003 04/06/2003 04/10/2003 04/02/2004 04/06/2004 04/10/2004 04/02/2005 04/06/2005 04/10/2005 04/02/2006 04/06/2006 04/10/2006 04/02/2007 04/06/2007 04/10/2007 04/02/2008 04/06/2008 04/10/2008 04/02/2009 04/06/2009 04/10/2009 04/02/2010 04/06/2010 13-14 Oct 2010 US$/t et eur/t
16/08/2010 04/10/2010 Wheat export prices since 1/1/2007 550 /t France Rouen 500 Low stocks /t Germany Hamburg US$/t US HRW Gulf 450 US$/t US SRW Gulf 400 /t US SRW Gulf 350 Russian embargo 300 High stocks 250 200 150 100 01/01/2007 19/02/2007 09/04/2007 28/05/2007 16/07/2007 03/09/2007 22/10/2007 10/12/2007 28/01/2008 17/03/2008 05/05/2008 23/06/2008 11/08/2008 29/09/2008 17/11/2008 05/01/2009 23/02/2009 13/04/2009 01/06/2009 20/07/2009 07/09/2009 26/10/2009 14/12/2009 01/02/2010 22/03/2010 10/05/2010 28/06/2010 13-14 Oct 2010 US$/t et eur/t
Wheat export prices since 1/6/2009 400 350 /t France Rouen /t Germany Hamburg US$/t US HRW Gulf US$/t US SRW Gulf USDA decreases estimates /t US SRW Gulf 300 Russia declares embargo 250 UKR declares export quota 200 150 100 Raising concerns for Black Sea drought 01/06/09 01/07/09 01/08/09 01/09/09 01/10/09 01/11/09 01/12/09 01/01/10 01/02/10 01/03/10 01/04/10 01/05/10 01/06/10 01/07/10 01/08/10 01/09/10 01/10/10 13-14 Oct 2010 US$/t et eur/t
13-14 Oct 2010 Russian figures ballet (tot grain mio t.) April May June July August Date 13 27 20 31 30 9 12 14 27 2 3 4 9 Official - Ag. Min. 97 88-90 <85 <80* 70-75 60 Grain Union 100+ 85 72-78 Analysts 88-95 84-89 82-86 77-81 70-75 65 63-67 *Economy Ministry On 7 th July the Agr Min announced that Russia will have an exportable production of 20 mio t On 14th July Agr Min announced less than 85 mio t On 3 Aug 75 mio t.
13-14 Oct 2010 EU Wheat cumulated export commitments 20.000.000 01/07/2009-30/06/2010 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 01/07/2010-28/09/2010 WHEAT CUMULATED EXP 16.000.000 12.000.000 MY 2009/10 AVERAGE 5MY t 8.000.000 TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY MY 2010/11 4.000.000 0
13-14 Oct 2010 Russia and Ukraine wheat yields 4.00 Ukraine agromet models 3.50 3.00 Ukraine econometrics models t/ha 2.50 2.00 1.50 Russia econometrics models Russia agromet models 1.00 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
13-14 Oct 2010 Some conclusive remarks Demand and Production growing in a context where - Rigid demand elasticity vs prices - Commodities markets the more and more linked among them - Restrictive export measures have a global effect - Higher price volatility than in the past Crop yields variability is the main cause of short term change in market equilibrium - Weather/climatic effects on crops are today causing this abrupt change in market balance and are triggering a dramatic price change together with other factors Estimating/predicting tools of these effects are necessary to anticipate market imbalances and enhance governance of price and food crisis
13-14 Oct 2010 From official statement of The Extraordinary Joint Intersessional meeting of the Intergovernmental Group (IGG/FAO) on Grains stated (24 Sept Rome): Unexpected price hikes and volatility are amongst major threats to food security and their roots causes need to be addressed, in particular regarding the lack of reliable and up-to-date information on crop supply and demand and export availability.
Thank you
$/t and eur/tt 02/10/2010 02/06/2000 02/10/2000 02/02/2001 02/06/2001 02/10/2001 02/02/2002 02/06/2002 02/10/2002 02/02/2003 02/06/2003 02/10/2003 02/02/2004 02/06/2004 02/10/2004 02/02/2005 02/06/2005 02/10/2005 02/02/2006 02/06/2006 02/10/2006 02/02/2007 02/06/2007 02/10/2007 02/02/2008 02/06/2008 02/10/2008 02/02/2009 02/06/2009 02/10/2009 02/02/2010 02/06/2010 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Maize export prices since 1/6/2000 $/t US 3YC Gulf eur/t France eur/t US 3YC Gulf $/t Argentina Up River Differences in average and variability (break point summer 2006) 13-14 Oct 2010
Maize export prices since 1/1/2007 350 300 Low stocks $/t US 3YC Gulf eur/t France eur/t US 3YC Gulf $/t Argentina Up River 250 Russian embargo $/t and eur/tt 200 High stocks 150 100 50 05/01/2007 05/05/2007 05/09/2007 05/01/2008 05/05/2008 05/09/2008 05/01/2009 05/05/2009 05/09/2009 05/01/2010 05/05/2010 05/09/2010 13-14 Oct 2010