Long-Term Environmental Effects of Mega-Trucks Study funded by the Community of European Railways and Infrastructure Companies (CER) Dr. Claus Doll Fraunhofer-Institute for Systems and Innovation Research Brussels, June 24, 2009
Impacts of Mega-Trucks which side weighs more? Positive: less fuel less pollution less drivers less congestion lower costs competitiveness Neutral: Impact on road surface Safety with appropriate technology standards Noise impacts Negative: bridges, intersections modal shift Ł more road traffic more emissions more congestion 2
Our approach to address the problem Literature review Impact chains and market structures from recent studies Market review Assessment of statistics and expert judgements on key parameters Case Studies Assessment of door-to-door transport chains on corridors with high combined transport volumes System Dynamics Model Model construction for analysis of global reaction patterns by key markets over time Geographical logistics model Application of NESTEAR model for assessment of modal shift effects by 2020 Overall assessment Common conclusions using both models and the insights from the literature review on long-term modal split effects by Mega-Trucks in Europe
Review of experiences and study results Sweden Increase of weight limits from 40 t (1966) to 60 t (1993), parallel increase of train lengths and rail wagon axle loads Ł overall effect on modal split negligible. Netherlands Field trials on selected relations on national territory only. Conditions: short distances with generally small haulage market. Ł only limited effects. Road +0.05% - 0.1%, inland waterways -0.2% to -0.3%, rail (total) -1.4% to -2.7% UK Model results (TRL08): 8 % to 18 % shift from rail with 60 t payload (bulk 5 %-10 %, deep sea containers 22 %-54 %) and 2.5 % to 5.5 % with 44 t vehicles. Domestic CT only integrated model consideration due to dynamic market Germany Model and logistics chain forecasts (TIM07, K+P06): Huge potential for modal shifts in combined transport (up to 55 % reduction). Field tests by the federal states not yet evaluated.
Risks of Modal Shift by Market Segment Bulk Shares of decisive market structures - MT 60t MT 60t High value goods Continental unitised Maritime unitised Bulk MT 50t High value goods Continental unitised Maritime unitised Bulk MT 40t High value goods Continental unitised Maritime unitised 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Market shares >800km Market share <800km
Impacts of Swiss Heavy Vehicle Fee and Tonnage Increase 28t to 40t from 2001 on Temporary stop of HGV growth Increase in 2007 Strong Swiss rail policy Impacts of regulation on weight + size limit extension in EU? Thousands of vehicles/year 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 S. Gotthard S. Bernardino Simplon Gr. S. Bernard
Netherlands to Poland: typical port hinterland route Road quality in Poland - Rail PL NL other products; 8,0% potatoes, frech fruits and vegetables; 5,3% timerb, cork; 8,5% Planned extension of Betuwelijn to Germany - SMEs dominating Polish haulage business - Big hauliers dojminating international transport + Increasing Polish wages + Goods structure: clothes and food products + Fast adaptation of Mega-Trucks in road haulage Rail NL leather, textile, garments and other semi-finished products; 28,1% PL metal-products; 4,7% leather, textile, garments and other semi-finished products; 16,2% motorcars, vehicles machines; 9,2% other products; 10,1% fodder and food; 8,8% iron-ore, steel and metal scrap, etc ; 5,7% iron, steel and non iron metal; 8,0% cement, lime and building materials; 3,5% chemical poducts; 5,9% potatoes, frech fruits and vegetables; 7,2% textile raw materials; 5,7% Strong pressure on modal shifts from rail Regulation to protect rail and local hauliers? metal-products; 3,8% motorcars, vehicles machines; 6,2% chemical poducts; 10,5% fodder and food; 20,5% iron, steel and non iron metal; 7,1%
Network Analysis the LOGIS Model 2,000 Trans-European logistics relations Special emphasis on new markets in New Member States Transhipment between all modes (road, rail, ferry) possible Productivity increase 20% to 30% Transhipment costs 75-100 to and from non-motorway road network
LOGIS Results: Demand by mode and hypothesis Billion tkm by mode and hypothesis 2020 Hypotheses: Costs efficiency / splitting costs Tkm road classic Tkm Mega- Truck Tkm combined transport TOTAL Proportion road classic Proportion Mega-Truck Proportion Combined No Mega-Trucks 1 369 0 144 1 513 90 0 10 H3: -20% / 100 1 247 187 75 1 509 83 12,4 4,9 H2: -20% / 75 1 121 330 61 1 512 74 21,8 4,0 H5: -25% / 100 1 146 313 56 1 514 76 20,6 3,7 H6: -25% / 75 978 500 41 1 518 64 32,9 2,7 H4: -30% / 100 1 038 442 39 1 519 68 29,1 2,6 H1: -30% / 75 871 628 25 1 524 57 41,2 1,6
LOGIS Results for Hypothesis 3 Tons.Km by mode : hypothesis 3 Hypothesis 3: HGV cost 2020: cost 2007 + 20 % 250000 200000 Road Classic Truck Road Megatruck Combined Transport Mega-Truck: HGV cost 20 % Transhipment : 100 to and off motorways Results: Tons.km in millions 150000 100000 50000 Major market penetration above 800 km in road haulage 0 0-100 km 100-200 km 200-300 km 300-400 km 400-500 km 500-600 km 600-700 km 700-800 800-900 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 1300-1400 1400-1500 1500-1600 1600-1700 1700-1800 1800-1900 1900-2000 km km km km km km km km km km km km km Distance between Origin and Destination Smallest reduction of CT from 10% in base case to 5% under hypothesis 3 Sensitivity test with major improvement in CT networks: Reduction CT share from 20 % (base) to 8 % (hypothesis 3) 100% 80% 60% 40% Proportion of mode by distance for Tons.Km 20% 0% Combined transport Road megatruck Road classic truck 200-300 300-400 400-500 500-600 km km km km km 0-100 km 100-200 600-700 700-800 800-900 900-1000 1000-1100 1100-1200 1200-1300 1300-1400 1400-1500 1500-1600 1600-1700 1700-1800 1800-1900 1900 - km km km km km km km km km km km km km 2000 km Distance between Origin and Destination
LOGIS Results: Impact of Improved Intermodal Services Two settings of CT network: Grid of service between intermodal yard + improvement of the frequency against 2005 graph upper At least one direct relationship between each intermodal yard (constraints linked to the service is limited) lower graph Results: Base case: 10% CT (var. 1) / 20% CT (var. 2) Hyp. 3: var.1: 4.9 % CT var. 2: 7.8 &% CT Hyp. 1: var. 1: 1.6 % CT var. 2: 5.2 % CT 12.4 % MT 13.3 % MT 41.2 % MT 38.2 % MT Proportion of Tk by mode Proportion of Tk by mode 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Combined transport 10% Road Megatruck Road Classic truck 0% Without Supertruck Hypothesis 3 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 5 Hypothesis 6 Hypothesis 4 Hypothesis 1 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Combined transport Road Megatruck Road Classic truck Without Supertruck Hypothesis 3 Hypothesis 2 Hypothesis 5 Hypothesis 6 Hypothesis 4 Hypothesis 1
SD-Analysis structure of the system dynamics model Cost elasticity Introduction of Mega-Trucks Base Rail demand by segment Mode shift Rail/Road Cost of road transport Rail efficiency New rail demand New road demand Road congestion Transport CO 2 emissions 12
SD-Analysis - CO 2 balance of central scenario Ł 60 t Mega-Trucks, central scenario: neutral assumptions on model parameters CO ² emissions total rail and road haulage market Initial decrease of CO ² due to efficiency gains on the road 2010-2012: - 0.8 Mt/a Strong increase of emissions due to mode shifts from rail until 2017 (max. + 1.7 Mt/a) Decrease and stabilisation at +0.2 Mt/a due to stronger growth of road haulage than rail ŁOverall small impact but with certain risk of contradicting climate goals. SC 1 60t 50% 75% 95% 100% Difference_in_CO2_emissions_TOT 2 1 0-1 -2 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Time (Year)
SD-analysis results for 50 t Mega-Trucks Reduction of weight limit from 60 t to 50 t SC 1 50t 50% 75% 95% 100% Difference_in_CO2_emissions_TOT 2 Central scenario: no fallback to balanced CO ² emissions due to less efficiency in road haulage and thus lower market penetration. Probable negative effect in climate-adverse scenario (+2 Mt/a) stronger magnitude than central case (-1.5 Mt/a). Lower attractiveness of 50 t Mega-Trucks in the huge bulk market eliminates much of road efficiency gains. 1.4 0.8 0.2-0.4 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 SC 3 50t 50% 75% 95% 100% Difference_in_CO2_emissions_TOT 4 Time (Year) ŁAgainst initial intuition climate effects of 50 t Mega-Trucks are much more expressed than with 60 t max. gross weight. 2.95 1.9 0.85-0.2 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Time (Year)
Conclusions on long-term impacts 1. Three phases of development can be observed: 1. Road sector accepts Mega-Trucks rather quickly Ł decrease of CO ² -emissions due to efficiency gain on the road ( 3 to 6 years, 0.5 Mt CO 2 /a). 2. If Mega-Trucks are established in road haulage modal shift tendencies set in in the rail sector Ł counter-balancing of CO ² reduction ( 5 to 20 years, 2 Mt CO 2 /a). 3. Under specific demand and capacity scenarios efficiency gains of Mega-Trucks weigh out modal shift Ł easing negative climate effect ( 15-30 years). 2. In all scenarios negative impacts in the medium run are much stronger than initial positive effects. 3. Reducing maximum gross weight to 50t will increase the likely adverse effects due to less attractiveness and lower efficiency gains in the road sector.
Thank you!