Non-boreal forests of Eastern Europe in a changing world - the role in functioning the Earth System Anatoly Shvidenko Sukachev Institute of Forest, SB, Russian Academy of Sciences; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Outline Do we have enough forests in Eastern nonboreal Europe? What are specific features of forests of the region? Condition, vitality and productivity of forests Global change and forests of the region Carbon cycling Future: Adaptation and mitigation
Current ecological condition of the region: examples from Ukraine Current estimates define that 11% of the entire territory has favourable ecological condition, 18% - satisfactory, 22% - conflict situation, 25% - before-crises and 24% - crises state (Yukhnovsky 2003) The share of plough lands is 57.5% of the total land area and about 80% for the agricultural land (15.8% in USA, less than 32% in developed European countries) Erosion is affected almost one third of plough lands, and the territory of eroded and washed-away lands has grown in the last 25 years by a quarter The condition of water reserves and atmosphere is unsatisfactory in large territories 3.5 million ha of radioactive contamination Wide distribution of dehumification of soils, ravine formation, acidification, other negative processes
Forested area of East-European countries Forested area by country (x1000 ha) Belarus 7984 Ukraine 9575 Moldova 329 Non-Boreal Russia* 64865 Including Southern FO 4446 Armenia 283 Azerbaijan 936 Georgia 2760 Total 91178 *Forests of Central, Privolzhsky and Southern FO Percentage of Forest Cover Belarus 38.0 Ukraine 16.5 Moldova 10.0 Non-Boreal Russia 28.4 Including Southern FO 7.4 Armenia 10.0 Azerbaijan 11.3 Georgia 39.7
Designated functions of forests (%) Country Prod Prot Cons Social Other Belarus 50.6 28.3 5.9 15.2 0 Ukraine 47.9 30.4 2.6 19.0 0 Moldova 64.1 6.7 13.4 0 15.8 Russia 62.0 24.3 1.8 2.5 9.4 Armenia 0 61.8 17.0 21.2 0 Azerbaijan 0 92.3 7.7 0 0 Georgia 0 78.4 8.2 13.4 0 Growing stock volume Country GSV, m3/ha Total, mln m3 Belarus 179 1411 Ukraine 221 2119 Moldova 141 47 Russia 158 10159 Armenia 125 36 Azerbaijan 136 127 Georgia 167 461
Some conclusions Forests of non-boreal East Europe are a major stabilizing element of natural landscapes. We do not have enough forests in the region, particularly in the ecotone forest-steppe Almost exclusively, forests are not managed in sustainable way Optimization of structure of landscapes (mostly agricultural and tree-agricultural) is important and urgent political, social and economic task
Europe and European Russia in a global picture Multi-model projected patterns of precipitation change 2090-2099 to 1980-1999, SRES A1B, WGI Figure 10.9
Regional specifics and heterogeneity On average, major regularities of global climate change over Northern Hemisphere are also observed in East European countries and European Russia However, there are distinct regional features of climate change within the region and its parts; it generates diverse impacts, different positive and negative consequences and feedbacks, as well as needs of regional adaptation and mitigation measures taking into account current and expected socio-economic condition and the demographic trends
Climate change in European Russia Regional trends of annual average air temperature In 1970-2004 by regions of European Russia and empirical forecast by 2025 Region 1 2 3 4 5 6 Trend ( o C/10 y) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 Forecast - 0-0.5 0-0.5 - - 0.2-0.5 Correlation coefficients between global and regional air temperature in 1900-2004 (R), first (R1) and second (R2) half of 20 th century by regions Region 1 2 3 4 5 6 R 0.42 0.59 0.70 0.66 0.69 0.76 R1 0.44 0.11 0.24 0.06 0.05 0.11 R2 0.53 0.81 0.85 0.76 0.70 0.83 Source: Anisimov et al. 2007
Change of temperature in Ukraine Average annual temperature over the period 1950-2000 ( o Cx10) Mean for the country 7.5 o C Average annual temperature for 2020 ( o Cx10) Mean for the country 9.0 o C Data from HADCM3 A2A Scenario Source: worldclim.org
Change of precipitation in Ukraine Annual monthly precipitation over the period 1950-2000 (mm) Mean monthly rainfall is 53 mm Average monthly precipitation for 2020 (mm) Mean monthly rainfall is 52 mm Data from HADCM3 A2A Scenario Source: worldclim.org
Change of some climatic indicators Difference in growing season (April-September) summed degree-days temperature (deg C) between 20020 (HADCM3 A2A) and 1950-2000 average Difference in growing season (April-September) summed precipitation (mm) between 20020 (HADCM3 A2A) and 1950-2000 average
Ukraine: increased aridity of climate by 2020 change of HTC
Major impacts of climate change on East- European forests are diverse, zone, site and forest type specific and include Shift or disappearance of some productive species Increases(+) or decreases (-) of stability and vitality + or in production of timber and non-wood products Change in types, extent and severity of disturbance regimes Alteration of ecosystem ecological functions Increases or decreases in nutrient retention Changes in species reproduction cycles Changes in regularities of succession dynamics Changes in environmental and social services
Key vulnerabilities
Main expected impacts of CC in Europe during the 21 st century, assuming no adaptation
Main expected impacts of CC in Europe during the 21 st century, assuming no adaptation
Statistically significant change of structure of live biomass of Northern Eurasia forests in 1960-2000s 1 0.1 1.15 1.1 NDVI 1.05 0.01 1 Above ground wood 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 0.95 Roots Green parts 0.9 Dynamics of ratio of LB to growing stock (red-stem wood, blue-roots, green-foliage) (average data of 3745 sample plots) 0.85 0.8 0.75 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year Dynamics of the ratio for all Russian forests (normalized to the values of 1983)
Modeling basis of the forest FCA The FCA is presented as a relevant combination of a poolbased approach dc/dt = dph/dt + dd/dt + dsoc/dt ± [OI], where Ph, D and SOC are pools of phytomass, dead organic matter and soil organic matter, OI outside effect and a flux-based approach NBP = NPP HR - D DEC - L ± [OI], where NBP and NPP are net biome and net primary production, HR hetrotrophic respiration, D flux caused by disturbances and L- lateral fluxes, DEC decomposition of CWD, OI outside effect
The Full Carbon Account Atmosphere Heterotrophic Respiration/ Anthropogenic Disturbances Consumption NPP Vegetation Detritus Deposition Deposition to Pedosphere Deposition to Hydrosphere Heterotrophic Respiration Pedosphere Surface Runoff Underground Runoff Leakage Runoff Lithosphere Hydrosphere
Carbon (CO 2 ) Cycle Module Forest Wetlands Agriculture Heterotrophi c respiration L Litte r Deep fall leaching NPP P П A V S Underground runoff Consumption and disturbances Surface runoff H Grasslands A: atmosphere; V: vegetation; S: soil; H: hydrosphere; L: lithosphere 5
Basic corner stones of a systems picture of the FGGA Canadell et al. 2000 Integrated Land Information System Different inventories and surveys Remote sensing (land cover, environmental indicators, NDVI, phenology, live biomass, disturbances, etc.) Measurements in situ (flux measurements etc.) Atmospheric gas composition and isotopes (CO 2, CH 4, O 2 /N, 13 C, 14 C) Combining methods (e.g., pool-based vs flux-based) Relevant combination of models (empirical and process-based)
Project: Carbon and Managed Land in Ukraine: Integrated Data and Models of Land Use for NEESPI (Forest) major objectives Development of a detailed spatially distributed information base on forest and forest management Analysis of recent dynamics of forest cover and major drivers Development a set of models for estimating the biospheric role of the country s forests Development of scenarios of future dynamics of the country s forests for the period of 2010-2030 under observed and expected tendencies of LULCC under changing environment Evaluation of the impacts of potential and adaptation measures on the future carbon budget of Ukrainian forests
Project: Carbon and Managed Land in Ukraine: Integrated Data and Models of Land Use for NEESPI (Forest) some results Major components of the FCA were revised Two scenarios business-as-usual and advanced have been developed BAU scenario: recent dynamics of forest land; current and expected resources; low level of afforestation; current level of forest protection; conservative level of wood harvest Advanced (but not optimal!) scenario: planned indicators of the State Programs (until 2015) on forests as a starting point; forecast of dynamics of agricultural land; optimistic scenario of future economic and social development of the country By 2030, Net Biome Production in the advanced scenario is about two fold higher than in the BAU (0.7 vs 0.3 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 )
Net Primary Production of Ukrainian Forests<440441-490491-540541-590591-640641-690691-70N4ew estimate of NPP of Ukrainian forests is 540 g C m -2 yr -1
1-5.01-77.019.01>1201-300301-400401-600601-800801biomass 960Live -Global change impacts productivity and biogeochemical cycling of.5forests0-3npp 30-203.05-91-1Major drivers impacted productivity of forests climate change climate change CO2 fertilization effect nitrogen deposition disturbance (fire and insects) forest management Empirical estimate of NPP 297 g C m -2 yr -1 Average NPP of 17 DGVMs 338 g C m -2 yr -1 NPP of non-boreal Russia 460 g C m -2 yr -1 (Shvidenko et al. 2008) Empirical estimate of increasing productivity on average + 0.5% per year during 1960s-2005 (Alexeyev & Markov 2003; Shvidenko et al.2007)
Adaptation and mitigation measures in forestry and forest management of the region Optimization of structure of agro-forestry landscapes Increase of productivity of existing forests [genetically improved seeds; introduction of relevant tree species; optimization of species composition; proper regulation of rotation period; fertilization; ecologically friendly technology of harvest] Improvement of protection of forests Improvement, scientific and information support of forest management Management of contaminated forests and landscapes [radionuclides but not only] Development of legislative base of adaptation and mitigation
Adaptation & mitigation measures The comprehensive evaluation of adaptation and mitigation measures and technologies used in different regions of Europe to reduce the adverse impact of climate variability and extreme meteorological events Better understanding, identification and prioritisation of adaptation options in agriculture, aquatic ecosystems, forest management, health services etc. Evaluation of the feasibility, costs and benefits of potential adaptation options, measures and technologies Quantification of bio-climatic limitations of most important plant species Intensification of studies on the regional specifics of adaptive capacity
Key uncertainties and research needs Improved long-term monitoring of climate-sensitive sectors and systems; development of integrated observing systems Improvement of climate impact models, development of regional models Enhancement of climate change impact assessment in areas with little or no previous investigation Understanding of terrestrial biota functioning under multiple stress Development of integrated impact models needs of the corresponding studies with a special emphasis to human dimension and socio-economic aspects
Implementation (4 th IPCC AR) Identification of populations at risk and the lag of climate change impacts Approaches for including climate change in management policy and institutions Consideration of non-stationary climate in the design of engineering structures Identification of the implications of climate change for water, air, health and environmental standards Identification of the pragmatic information needs of managers responsible for adaptation