The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
Agenda This is ExxonMobil The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Global Fundamentals Meeting Growing Demand Transportation Residential and Commercial Industrial Electricity Generation Lowering Emissions Fulfilling Future Supply Q&As
This is ExxonMobil
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Global fundamentals
The world s demand for energy is driven by many factors, but the two biggest are population and economic growth Energy is fundamental to standards of living
The energy equation People living standards energy needs
Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria Congo.25. 1 1 1 1 Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day)
Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 21$ Quadrillion BTUs 21 16 14 18 12 15 12 1 12 9 8 8 6 Energy Savings 6 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* 2 22 24 4 2 22 24 4 2 2 22 24 *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
25% increase in energy demand by 24. That s like adding another North and Latin America
Developing nations lead in GDP growth and living standard improvements.
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China Mexico Brazil Nigeria Egypt Turkey Iran Saudi Arabia India Thailand China Indonesia South Africa $72 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations 24 214 OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) ~$15 Trillion (21$) *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Meeting Growing Demand
Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations Energy Demand Transportatio n
Transportation
Close to 95 % of current transportation energy needs are met by oil Gasoline demand flattens as vehicle fuel economy improves rapidly Demand for diesel grows 45 percent 214-24 as truck and marine needs expand 21
Transportation Demand Demand by Region MBDOE Sector Demand MBDOE 3 75 1 25 Rail 4 Marine 2 5 Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 1 U.S. 25 Light Duty OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 2 22 24
Light Duty Vehicle Fuel Consumption Fleet by Type Million Average Vehicle Fuel Consumption On-Road Liters per 1 km 18 16 14 12 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline 2 15 1 8 6 4 2 1 5 U.S. Europe Average Fleet 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 21 22 23 24
Residential and commercial
Residential/Commercial energy demand grows by about 25% Reflects rising populations and an ongoing shift of people from rural to urban settings 25
Residential/Commercial Outlook By Sector By Region By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs 15 15 15 Other 125 Commercial 125 Rest of World 125 1 1 Africa 1 Electricity 75 75 India 75 China Biomass 5 Residential 5 5 Coal 25 25 OECD 25 Gas 2 22 24 2 22 24 Oil 2 22 24
Demand Rises for Durable Goods China Durable Goods Ownership Average Ownership per 1 Households (1985 212) Refrigerator Sales History and Forecast Units per 1 Households (22 222) 1 14 212 75 Washing Machines Refrigerators Air Conditioners 12 1 Brazil U.S., Japan, Western Europe China 5 Computer 8 6 India Indonesia 25 4 Cars 2 4 8 12 GDP per Capita (PPP$k) 1 2 3 GDP per Capita (PPP$k) *Source: Freedonia Group, Inc., ExxonMobil Estimates
Industrial
Industrial demand increases by about 3% as need for manufactured goods rises Electricity and natural gas are increasingly the fuels of choice for manufacturing 29
Industrial Demand Industrial Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 3 Paint 2 Plastics Fertilizer 1 Chemical Heavy Industry Energy Industry Other Liquid Fuels Steel Coal Agriculture Automobiles Lubricants Textiles Natural Gas Asphalt 2 22 24
Electricity generation
World will need about 65% more electricity, mainly driven by demand from non-oecd countries 32
Electricity Grows in Developing Economies Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 Per Capita Demand MWh per person 15 214 United States 3 Rest of World 1 2 1 Key Growth India China OECD* United States 2 22 24 5 India 198 21 24 China Europe Key Growth *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries
Electricity Demand Continues to Surge By Sector Thousand TWh By Generation Type Share of TWh 4 Oil 24 3 Transportation Other Renewables Coal 2 Res/Comm Wind & Solar 214 1 Industrial 2 22 24 Nuclear Gas
Emissions
CO2 emissions will grow to 23, then decline. OECD declining trend already Economics and policies impact the fuel mix
CO 2 Policies 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton
Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation gco 2 /kwh delivered 1% Oil Other Renewables 1% 8 Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% 6 25 212 5% Gas 5% 4 25% 25% 2 Coal % 25 212 % 25 212 United States Germany
Supply
Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24 Gas will surpass coal as number two source of energy by 24
Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% 24 Average Growth / Yr. 214-24 2 214 1.6%.9% 15 -.2% 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo
Liquids
Liquids Supply Supply by Type MBDOE Crude and Condensate Resource* Trillion barrels of oil 12 Biofuels Other Liquids NGLs Other NGLs 6 5 8 Tight Oil Oil Sands Oil Sands Deepwater Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development 4 3 Remaining Resource 4 Conventional Crude & Condensate Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate 2 1 Cumulative Production through 24 2 22 24 * Source: IEA 24
Remaining Oil Resource Crude and Condensate (GBO) ~1,1 ~9 ~1, ~1 Russia/Caspian North America ~8 Europe ~4 Middle East ~2 ~4,5 Asia Pacific Latin America Africa Global Source: IEA
Liquids Trade Balance by Region MBDOE 45 45 45 Other 45 Natural Gas Liquids 45 45 45 Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater 3 3 3 Conventional Crude & Condensate Demand 3 3 3 3 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific
Natural gas grows more than any other energy source.
Global Natural Gas Supply and Demand Supply by Type BCFD 6 4 Unconventional Industrial 2 Conventional Electricity Generation 2 22 24
Gas Trade Balance by Region BCFD 18 15 Unconventional Production Conventional Production Demand 12 9 6 3 1 2 3 4 North America Latin America Africa Europe Russia/ Caspian Middle East Asia Pacific
Global LNG Supply & Demand Outlook MTA 6 5 4 3 Future Projects Under Construction & FID Projects 2 1 Existing LNG Projects 2 21 22 23
Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty.
Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) 15 214 1 5 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24
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