GHG Emissions from Bioenergy: A longer-term View Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division, Darmstadt Office Oeko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology) presented at the JRC-INTA Expert Consultation GHG Emissions from Biofuels and Bioenergy Buenos Aires March 29-30, 2011
GHG Emissions of Bioenergy http://acm.eionet.europa.eu/reports/docs//etcacc_tp_2009_18_lca_ghg_ae_2013-2030.pdf
System Approach for LCA
GEMIS Database Energy Materials Transport technical data emission data cost data direct job data Linking of unit processes creates life-cycles
EU Bioenergy 2010-2030 Note: data shown exclude LUC
EU Bioelectricity: BioCH 4 2010 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 coal-fired ST, EU gas-fired CC, EU ATN CON MED biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen ATN biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen CON biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen ATN SCR-gasified ICEcogen CON SCR-gasified ICEcogen CO2 eq. CO2 GHG emissions in g/kwh el. Note: data shown exclude LUC
EU Bioelectricity: BioCH 4 2030 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 coal-fired ST, EU coal-fired ST, EU ATN CON MED biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen ATN biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen CON biogas-double-crop- ICE-cogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen SCR-gasified ICEcogen ATN SCR-gasified ICEcogen CON SCR-gasified ICEcogen CO2 eq. CO2 GHG emissions in g/kwh el. Note: data shown exclude LUC
EU Bioelectricity: Solids 2010-30 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 coal ST, EU 2010 coal ST, EU 2030 gas-cc, EU 2010 gas-cc, EU 2030 wood chips forest cogen SE wood chips forest cogen ORC wood-pellets cogen- Stirling wood-chips-forest FBcogen-ICE wood-chips-forest FBcogen-microGT wood-chips forest acfbcogen-ice wood chips forest press.fb CC wood chips forest press.fb CC-cogen straw-cogen-bp straw-cogen-se straw-cogen-orc CO2 eq. CO2 GHG emissions in g/kwh el. Note: data shown exclude LUC
EU Bioheat: 2010-2030 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Noe: data shown exclude LUC gas heat, EU oil heat, EU SRC-chips-heating SRC-chips-heating ATN SRC-chips-heating CON SRC-chips-heating miscanthusheatplant miscanthusheatplant MED miscanthusheatplant GHG emissions in g/kwh th switchgrassheatplant switchgrassheatplant ATN switchgrassheatplant CON giant-reedheatplant MED switchgrassheatplant CO2 eq. CO2 data for 2010
EU Bioheat: 2010-2030 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 gas-heating oil-heating SRC-chips-heating SRC-chips-heating ATN SRC-chips-heating CON SRC-chips-heating miscanthusheatplant miscanthusheatplant MED miscanthusheatplant switchgrassheatplant switchgrassheatplant ATN switchgrassheatplant CON giant-reedheatplant MED switchgrassheatplant CO2 eq. CO2 data for 2030 GHG emissions in g/kwh th Noe: data shown exclude LUC
What about ILUC? http://www.europarl.europa.eu/activities/committees/studies/download.do?language=en&file=34111
iluc Factor 2005-2030 share in world land mix for agricultural exports region, crop, previous land use 2005 2010 2020 2030- REF 2030- HIGH 2030- LOW EU, rapeseed, arable land 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% EU, rapeseed, grassland 2% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% AR/BR, soybean, grassland 20% 20% 21% 23% 20% 26% AR/BR, soybean, savannah 0% 0% 2% 3% 6% 0% ID, oil palm, grassland 0% 0% 2% 4% 0% 5% ID, oil palm, degraded land 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% ID, oil palm, trop. rain forest 3% 3% 4% 4% 8% 0% EU, wheat, arable land 4% 3% 2% 0% 0% 0% EU, wheat, grassland 2% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% US, maize, arable land 20% 20% 10% 0% 0% 0% US, maize, grassland 26% 25% 30% 33% 33% 33% BR, sugarcane, arable land 7% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% BR, sugarcane, grassland 9% 14% 18% 26% 24% 18% BR, sugarcane, degraded land 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% BR, sugarcane, savannah 5% 4% 3% 2% 4% 0% iluc factor [t CO 2 /ha/year] maximal iluc 10.2 10.2 10.9 10.9 12.8 8.3 iluc25% 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.3 2.8 iluc50% 6.8 6.8 7.3 7.3 8.5 5.5 world mix : export shares of countries (AR/BR, EU, ID, US) for agro products (rape, maize, palm, soy, wheat), yield and trade data from FAOSTAT 200-2007 + trend projections (2010-2020), and scenarios (2030)
ILUC: Dynamic View Needed Future iluc can become low: Dampening ILUC through REDD (if adequately implemented and financed) free land from intensification (baseline, tradeoffs!) LUC policies in key countries (AR, BR, ID, ZA ) Prioritizing low-iluc feedstocks: wastes/residues (2nd generation) unused/degraded land (with biodiversity/social safeguards) iluc is no fate
Conclusions on Bioenergy Bioenergy can be used to aim for maximum GHG reduction at reasonable cost Up to 2020, best use is electricity and heat, less for transport fuels (see BUBE of IEA Bioenergy/IEA RETD) Up to 2050, strict climate targets might require shifting to biofuels for trucks, ships and aviation bioenergy with CCS to reduce atmospheric CO 2 Cultivation of perennial crops on low-carbon land: sequestration of atmospheric C in soils reduces deforestation pressures (development alternatives, access to modern energy)
Conclusions on LCA LCA useful for unit comparison of systems without major changes (ceteris paribus) Material Flow Analysis (MFA) more adequate approach to reflect future system changes: Technology and market dynamics are important to consider in scenarios ( future corridor ) Policy can influence dynamics (e.g. for LUC) MFA needed to substantiate shaping of future biomass markets and technology portfolios
Access and Contact Using and distributing GEMIS is free Software & database + tours available from website: http://www.gemis.de (GEMIS version 4.7 to be released in April 2011, version 5 in 2012) Contacts Data: u.fritsche@oeko.de Help/seminars: u.draude@oeko.de Program: l.rausch@oeko.de
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