The Amazing 218 Soybean Season: Lessons for 219 ISA Webinar December 18, 218 Emerson Nafziger Crop Sciences University of Illinois ednaf@illinois.edu
Million acres 14 Illinois corn and soybean acreage, 199-218 Corn Soybean 12 1 8 6 4 2 1988 1993 1998 23 28 213 218 2
Bushels per acre 25 2 Illinois yields, 199-218 Corn Soybean y = 2.4212x - 4695.9 R² =.5426 15 1 5 y =.6372x - 123.4 R² =.6537 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 216 22 3
Bushels per acre 7 Curved: y =.345x 2-137.55x + 137233 6 R² =.76 5 4 3 Illinois soybean yields, 199-218 Straight: y =.6372x - 123.4 R² =.65 2 Straight line or upward curve? - Straight over last 1 years: 6.4 bushel increase 1 - Curved over last 1 years: 13.5 bushel yield increase Actual 28-218 yield diff: 64 47 = 17 bushels 1988 1992 1996 2 24 28 212 216 22 4
1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Corn yield:soybean yield, bu:bu 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Corn:Soy Yield Ratio, Illinois, 1999-218 5
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Bu/acre or pods per sq ft 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Illinois Soy Pod Count & Yield pod ct yield 6
Yield, bu/acre 7 65 6 55 5 45 Illinois soybeans, 24-218 y =.4129x + 7.1481 R² =.626 218 4 35 3 In 218, assuming 2.5 beans/pod and 2,7 beans per lb., there were 32 pods and 8 seeds per plant 6 8 1 12 14 Pods per sq ft 7
Yields 214 56 215 56 216 59 217 58 218 64 8
Inches Illinois rainfall 218 Normal 7 6 6.3 5 4 3 2.4 3.8 3.8 4.6 4.2 4.1 3.4 4.9 4.9 3.6 3.2 2 1 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 9
1
July 3, 218 August 21, 218 11
Average temperature, F 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Illinois temperatures 218 Normal Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 12
Monthly total, MJ/m 2 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Sunlight at Bondville, Champaign Co. June July Aug Sep 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 13
So why the high soybean yields (again) in 218? Weather: Very cool April, very warm May, with normal rainfall June a little warmer and wetter than normal (most places) July and August temps normal, rainfall mixed: above- to below-normal Sunshine amounts high in May, a little above normal June-August Crop: Planting began a little late, finished earlier than normal Excellent emergence and early growth; high crop ratings from the start Flowering much ahead of normal; >4% of the crop flowering by July 1 Excellent canopy color throughout podsetting and seedfilling Podsetting and maturity about 2 weeks ahead of normal Results: Projected yield of 64, beating previous Illinois record of 59 (216) Yields some to well above normal in most areas, limited by dryness/drought in NE western IL, and by high rainfall in parts of NW IL 218 was for the soybean crop probably the most stress-free year ever across most of Illinois. 14
But don t soybeans need short days to flower? Yes: nights need to be long enough (it s the night length that counts) to trigger plants of a given maturity to flower Later-maturing varieties need a longer night/shorter day than early ones, so flower later But if a variety normally gets a long enough night on July 1 (2 days after the longest day/shortest night), that same night length also occurs 2 days BEFORE the longest day, or on June 1 If plants have reached V3 stage by the time they get the signal to flower, they will flower even if it s before June 2 Night temperature is a major factor: shorter but warmer nights (as in 218) will trigger flowering 15
Date 1/7 9/17 8/28 8/8 7/19 6/29 6/9 5/2 4/3 4/1 Soybean maturity x planting date, Urbana, 218 1st flower 1st pod start podfill mature MG 2.3 MG 3.6 MG 2.3 MG 3.6 Planted April 26 Planted May 24 16
Yield, bu/acre 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 UI Variety Trials, Region 1 (N) y =.4446x - 1925 R² =.2358 Maturity range MG 2.1 to 3.4.44 bu per day (~.1 MG) later in maturity 9/12 9/17 9/22 9/27 1/2 Maturity date 17
% protein UI Variety Trials Region 1, 218 5 4 3 2 1 6 65 7 75 8 85 Yield, bu/acre 18
Yield, bu/acre 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 UI Variety Trial Region 2 (NC) 218 MG 2.4 to 4.3 y =.4138x - 1787 R² =.1796 +.41 bushel for each day later in maturity 9/12 9/17 9/22 9/27 1/2 1/7 Maturity date 19
Grain protein, % 37 Variety Trial Region 2, 218 35 33 31 29 27 25 6 65 7 75 8 85 Yield, bu/acre 2
Yield, bu/acre 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 UI Variety Trials Region 3 (C), 218 MG 2.7 to 4.3, no effect of maturity on yield 21 LL varieties yielded an average of 1.8 bushels less than 56 RX varieties 9/7 9/12 9/17 9/22 9/27 1/2 Maturity date 21
% grain protein UI Variety Trial Region 3, 218 39 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 y = -.473x + 38.145 R² =.635 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 Yield, bu/acre 22
Yield, bu/acre 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 UI Variety Trial Region 5 (S) 218 MG 3.6 to 4.9; no effect of maturity on yield 21 LL varieties yielded an average of 3.1 bushels less than 4 RX varieties 9/12 9/17 9/22 9/27 1/2 Maturity date 23
Lessons on varieties, 218 for 219 Yields, like those in farm fields, were high at most sites; one site (Goodfield) averaged 89.3, a new VT record. Effect of maturity on yield varied by region, but in 218 ranged from positive (4+ bu/mg) to flat RR2Xtend (RX) varieties increased again as a percentage of entered varieties, mostly at the expense of RR varieties Some regional differences, but yields of the two groups of varieties (at least those entered in the trials) differed more within group than between groups Selecting varieties based on protein content does not (at this point) appear to be a path to higher profits 24
Yield, bu/acre Few soybeans were planted very early (mid-april) and few were planted very late (June) in 218 Soybean planting date, Monmouth, 218 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 4/1 4/3 5/2 6/9 Planting date 25
Yield, bu/acre Planting date x row x fungicide, Monmouth 218 15" no fung 15" + fung 3" no fung 3" + fung 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 4/2 4/3 5/1 5/2 5/3 6/9 Planting date 26
Yield, bushels per acre Soybean planting date x maturity, Urbana, 218 MG 2.3 MG 2.6 MG 2.9 MG 3.2 MG 3.6 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 4/2 4/3 5/1 5/2 5/3 6/9 Planting date 27
Yield, % of maximum 12 Soybean, N & C Illinois, 21-216 1 8 6 4 2 Planting Yield date % of maximum May 1 97 May 1 94 May 2 91 May 3 86 June 1 8 June 2 74 Average yield at 1% = 69.4 bu/ac 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Planting date, days after April 1 28
Planting date Delayed planting was a non-issue in most areas in 218 Doublecrop soybean yields were good, following mediocre wheat yields but early harvest With growing conditions uniformly good in most areas through July and August, there was little to threaten yields, but early planting still set the stage for higher yields Once again there as some super-early (in March in 218) planting: much of this had to be replanted, and it s certain that none yielded more than late April or early May planting 29
Yield, bu/acre 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Soybean seeding rate 216 5 1 15 2 Established stand, /acre MN-16 GFd-16 UR-16 NB-16 StP-16 EkV-16 HB-16 Max Optimum
Yield, bu/acre 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Seeding rate trials 217 3 6 9 12 15 Stand count, /acre Elkville Goodfield Harrisburg Monmouth New Berlin St. Peter Urbana Optimum
Yield, bu/acre 1 Soybean seeding rate trials 218 8 6 4 2 1 2 3 Plant stand, /acre Goodfield Monmouth New Berlin Urbana Harrisburg St. Peter Elkville Optimum 32
Yield at optimum stand, bu/acre Then: 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 Illinois Seeding Rate Trials, 215-17 Average of 118, plants; would take 147, seeds at 8% emergence 5 1 15 2 Optimum plant stand, /acre
Yield, bu/acre Now: 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 27 soybean seeding rate trials, 215-218 215 216 217 218 Average of 123, plants; would take 154, seeds at 8% emergence 5 1 15 2 25 Plant stand, /acre
Seeding rate 218 Stand consistency was good, with an average in trials (and probably most fields) of >9% stand The range of plant stands needed to optimize yield was wider in 218 than in previous years, ranging from 86K to 21K among sites, with modest correlation between yield and stand A safe seeding rate in the 14, to 15, range is still supported when including 218 results, but risk of being too low to maximize returns to seed may be higher than that of being too high 35
Soybean yield, bu/acre 7 6 5 4 Rotation study, Monmouth 218 (year 2) Tilled No-till 58.7 * 53.1 55. 55.7 * * 49.2 51.8 43.1 45. 3 2 1 C B A AB Cont S Corn-S C-wheat-S WCS Rotation 36
Soybean yield, bu/acre 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 65. * 66.6 Monmouth 24-216 No-till Tilled 68.7 71. 75.7 72.5 74.3 71. * * * C B A A Cont soy Corn-soy C-wheat-soy W-corn-soy Rotation 37
Corn yield, bu/acre 3 25 2 Monmouth Rotation x Tillage, 218 Tilled No-till 229 233 241 247 234 241 * * 21 211 15 1 5 B B A A Cont C Soy-C SWC WSC Rotation 38
Yield, bu/acre 8 75 7 65 6 55 Soybean after 12 years cont. corn, 218 Tilled No-till 77.1 * 71.5 68.2 67.8 64.9 A B AB 7.7 5 No removal Partial removal All removed Corn residue treatment, 26-17 39
Soybean yield, bu/acre (across residue trts) 76 74 72 7 68 66 64 62 6 After 12 years cont. corn, Urbana No-till Tilled 6 12 18 24 3 N rate applied each year, 26-217 4
Rotation, tillage, and soybean The penalty to continuous soybean compared to corn-soy was unusually high (again) in 218: continuous soybean yielded 14% less than corn-soy at Monmouth In the same study, soybean following wheat (that followed corn) yielded 11% more than corn-soy, and soybean that followed corn (that followed wheat) yielded 5% more than corn-soybean At this site, tillage increased soybean in all of the rotations except continuous soybean. For 219, mostly business as usual : Expect a 5 to 8% (could be more, depending on?) lower yield for soybeans following soybeans compared to CS Tillage? Generally little effect on yield, and where tillage boosts yield it s often not enough to pay the tillage cost. Getting good seed placement and keeping soil in place are priorities. 41
Nitrogen on soybeans? When the canopy is dark green by early August, the crop is unlikely to yield more if N fertilizer is used. It was VERY dark green by Aug. 1 in 218. Chillicothe, IL Sep. 2, 215 photo by Joshua Vonk 42
From A. Gaspar and S. Conley, University of Wisconsin
Yield, bu/acre 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 N on soybeans, Urbana 215 96.1 96.1 91.1 92. 92.5 91.5 85.8 89. 88.8 b c ab ab b a a bc bc N application, 1 lb N/acre
Yield, bu/acre 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 84.6 85.1 84.9 86.2 86.9 No N N on soybean at Urbana, 216 1 lb urea at planting 1 lb urea at R1 1 lb urea at R3 1 lb urea at R5 81.6 ------------------------No significant differences in yield--------------------- 4X: planting, R1, R3, R5 84.8 46 lbs N as AMS, R3
Yield, bu/acre 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 N on soybean, Urbana, 217 No N Urea 1 planting Urea 1 R1 Urea 1 R3 Nitrogen treatment Urea 1 R5 Urea 1 4X
Recap: Lessons from 218 going into 219 The less stress soybeans encounter, the more they tend to yield don t create stress on purpose Variety maturity is not strongly correlated to yield potential, but choosing from among not early varieties is probably best Planting early from mid-april (not mid-march) into mid- May produces highest yields For reasons not altogether clear, we tended to need more plants to maximize return to seed in 218; planting 14 to 15K is still safe, but don t skimp Most fields with high and higher yields in 218 did not receive fertilizer N; that will also be true in 219 Still little consistent benefit to fungicide or insecticide when diseases and insects aren t present 47
Thanks