Generation Options and Renewables Stuart Dalton sdalton@epri.com Director, Generation Nicaraguan Delegation Visit 18 September, 2009
Cost of Electricity (Generic, Wholesale) Near-Term: 2015 2
PC, IGCC, NGCC Comparison 2015 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 120 All costs are in December 2007 $ 110 100 90 80 70 NGCC ($10/MMBtu, $800/kW) IGCC PC NGCC ($8/MMBtu, $800/kW) Note Natural Gas now ~ 3.50/MM Btu 60 50 40 30 No Capture of CO 2 for PC, IGCC, NGCC 95% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1018329 Rev. October 2008 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO 2, $/Metric Ton 3
Comparative Levelized Costs of Electricity 2015 Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 120 Biomass 110 Wind (32.5% Capacity Factor) 100 90 NGCC ($10/MMBtu) All costs are in December 2007 $ IGCC 80 NGCC ($8/MMBtu) 70 60 PC Nuclear 50 40 30 No investment or production tax credits are assumed for wind or biomass. 95% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1018329 Rev. October 2008 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO 2, $/Metric Ton 4
Longer-Term: 2025 5
Impact of CO 2 Removal and Cost and Performance Improvements on Levelized Cost of Electricity Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 120 IGCC ($4000/kW, + CO 110 2 capture, 2025) All costs are in December 2007 $ PC ($4100/kW, + CO 2 capture, 2025) 100 90 80 70 60 50 IGCC ($3250/kW, with CO 2 capture, with cost and performance improvements, 2025) PC ($3400/kW, with CO 2 capture, with cost and performance improvements, 2025) 40 30 95% confidence level Rev. October 2008 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO 2, $/Metric Ton 6
Comparative Levelized Costs of Electricity 2025 (Capital plus O&M) Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh 120 110 100 90 80 70 No investment or production tax credits are assumed for wind or biomass. Solar thermal LCOE ranges between $120-$260/MWh (see earlier slide). IGCC Biomass PC All costs are in December 2007 $ 60 50 40 30 Wind (42% Capacity Factor) Nuclear ($3380/kW) NGCC ($8/MMBtu) 95% confidence level values based on EPRI Report 1018329 Rev. October 2008 0 10 20 30 40 50 Cost of CO 2, $/Metric Ton 7
Renewables - Significant Growth Technology Growth Rate 2008 World Installed GW Wind 29% 121 Biomass Combustion 4% 52 Geothermal 4% 10 Solar PV 71% 13 Solar Thermal 14% 0.5 Ocean Energy N/A 0.3 Source: 2009 Global Status Report 8
Solar Resource Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST): Direct Normal Solar Radiation Photovoltaic (PV): Diffuse Solar Radiation 530 MW installed worldwide > 8,000 MW planned by 2013 > 10,000 MW installed worldwide > 33,000 MW expected by 2011 Source: NREL 9
CSP: Parabolic Trough & Molten Salt Storage 1 mile ~ 1.6 km Thermal Energy Storage Andasol (Spain) 10
What About Large Scale Solar PV Plant? 4000 3000 kw 2000 1000 TEP Springerville 0 1400000 1450000 1500000 1550000 Seconds since 00:00:00 Jan 1, 2007 3000 kw 2000 1000 (b) 0 250 750 1250 Minutes kw 11 Source: Jay Apt CMU, 4.6 MW TEP Solar Array (Arizona) 11
Solar-Fossil Hybrid Systems Approach: Utilize heat from a solar field in a fossil-based plant Applicable to NGCC or coal-fired systems where conditions permit Heat can be used for feedwater heating, inlet-air chilling, cogen applications, directly in HRSG, etc. Benefits: Avoid fuel costs Reduce emissions Address regulatory pressures Increase utilization of existing plant assets Promising economics in right situations Solar-NCGG Hybrid System 12
Geothermal Energy Status Geothermal energy 2500 MW in the U.S., mostly in California and Hawaii. Issues include high cost of geothermal wells, decrease output over time. Current interest is in both conventional (dry steam), and enhanced deep geothermal (drill, fracture, inject and extract energy) Subsurface temperatures at 6-km depth (deg C) dry steam The Geysers (Calpine) Enhanced -Geoff Sims New Civil Engineer 13
Wind Power in the U.S. 3500 US Wind Power Installations (MW/Year) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Installed RPS Required New RPS = Renewable Portfolio Standard 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: AWEA, GE Wind, and ACORE In 2008 wind power total 121 GW - 30% growth Globally, +8.4 GW in USA Texas, Iowa, Calif = 1-2-3 US R&D investment in wind power > $1 B. 14
Wind and People The Median Cost of Transmission to Enable Wind is $300/kW and $15/MWh 15
Operational Challenges Integrating Large Wind and Solar High V f Low 16
CT as a Balancing Resource GE LM6000 Ramp Rate (MW/min) 20 10 0-10 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Time (hours) Ramp Rates -20 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 Time (hours) Ramp Rate and Duty Cycle for CT Balancing Wind 17 Acknowledgment: Research Conducted by Warren Katzenstein and Jay Apt, CMU 17
Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 18
CSP: Parabolic Trough Status: Commercial Deployment (Spring 2009) 420 MW operating in U.S. 280 MW planned in Arizona 850 MW planned in California Several 50 MW plants under construction in Spain Key attributes Proven technology Low risk premium Thermal storage option R&D opportunities Direct steam Advanced heat transfer fluids 19
CSP: Central Receiver Status: Demonstration to earlycommercial Deployment 10 MW operating in Spain 20 MW now in operation April 2009 15 MW Solar Tres (Spain) project Key attributes High efficiency Inherent thermal storage R&D opportunities Large-scale molten salt Distributed tower approach Advanced receiver concepts 10 MW PS1 20 MW PS 2 (further away) Photos taken by Stu Dalton - EPRI 20
CSP: Dish/Engine Status: Development to earlycommercial Deployment Small demonstrations 800-1750 MW planned in CA Key attributes Modular Very high efficiency No thermal storage and large ramp rates possible R&D opportunities Capital cost reduction 21
Additional Renewable Slides 22
Solar Thermal: Linear Fresnel Status: Development to early-demonstration Deployment Steam demonstrated, but no standalone electricity 500 MW planned in CA and FL Key attributes Potentially lower capital costs Efficient ground coverage R&D opportunities Thermal storage Photos taken by Mike Taylor, SEPA 23
Photovoltaics Status Crystalline silicon commercial Thin film early commercial Concentrating PV early commercial Over 10 GW deployed worldwide 500-600 MW in U.S. Key attributes Potential for breakthroughs in efficiency and cost Modular No storage Large, uncontrolled ramp rates possible 24
P84A Renewable Energy Economics and Technology Status (required purchase) Project Set Focus Areas 84.001 Renewable Energy Technology Guide (aka TAG-RE) Status and potential of renewable technologies Industry trends Strategic information Newsletters/perspectives Conferences/workshops Information Exchange Tours, industry speakers 84.002 Engineering and Economic Evaluations 84.003 Analysis and Strategy Role of renewables in future generation portfolios Policy scenarios Contact Tom Key 865-218-8082 tkey@epri.com 25
Value Proposition for P84A Maintains a strong collaborative All funders participate Strategic information Information trends Information exchange Deliverables of benefit to all members Pricing of 84A and single project set only incrementally higher than 2009 P84 buy More robust portfolio 26
P84B Biomass Project Set Focus Areas 84.004 Biomass Supply Management Long-term supply security Development of multiple supply chains Assessment of energy plantations 84.005 Power Generation from Biomass Impact on environmental equipment Biomass plant cost database Ash utilization Torrified wood full-scale tests Methods to increase co-firing fraction 84.006 Life Cycle Analysis of Biomass-Based Power Updated biomass-to-power carbon footprint Land, water implications of biomass supply Broad deployment of biomass power plants: environmental implications Contact Dave O Connor 650-855-8970 doconnor@epri.com 27
P84C Solar Project Set Focus Areas 84.007 Solar Augmented Steam Cycle Applications Analysis Analyze new applications Greenfield Integration with biomass or geothermal 84.008 Solar Technology Assessment Center (SolarTAC) Benchmark PV/CPV technologies SolarTAC demo projects 84.009 Solar Thermal Storage Technology Assessment Field data for installations Identify hosts for collaborative evaluations of thermal storage performance Contact Cara Libby 650-855-2382 clibby@epri.com 28
P84D Wind Project Set Focus Areas 84.010 Wind Power Technology Assessment Drive train, generators, blades, towers, sensors and controls Engineering and economic assessment 84.011 Wind Power Asset Management Status of O&M and asset management technologies Condition Monitoring and NDE O&M procedures Wind turbine asset management guidebook Vestas V-80, 2 MW Contact Chuck McGowin 650-855-2445; 831-626-6125 cmcgowin@epri.com 29
P84E Geothermal Project Set Focus Areas 84.012 Geothermal Operations and Maintenance Plant evaluations and assessments O&M handbook Training and technology transfer 84.013 Assessment of Geothermal Power Technologies Engineering and economic analysis of low- and moderate-temperature geothermal resources and technologies Identify demonstration projects for advanced geothermal or EGS Contact Luis Cerezo 704-595-2190 lcerezo@epri.com 30
Geothermal Innovation in 2010 Single Well Enhanced Geothermal Systems (SWEGS) Polaris Initiative award and DOE Proposal (due in July) Closed Loop Does not contaminate aquifer Dry heat (Hot Dry Rock) Wide geographic potential Uses limited water and space May use existing facilities Depleted oil/gas wells T&D 50-100 MWe fields EGS SWEGS 31