OZONE UPDATE ROHIT SHARMA Lyondellbasell January 2008 1
BACKGROUND 2
Basic Ozone Chemistry Solar Energy Little or No Wind Clear Skies Ground Level Ozone (O 3 ) Formation Oxygen (O 2 ) Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Nitrogen Oxides (NO x ) Biogenic 2% Biogenic 74% Industry 9% Area & Nonroad 11% On Road 6% Point 9% Area & Non road 11% On road 6% Biogencis 74% On Road 33% Industry 47% Point 34% Area 10% On road 35% Non road 21% - Area & Nonroad 18% 3
OZONE STANDARD 1 hr ozone standard The Houston/Galveston/Brazoria (HGB) area was classified as severe non-attainment for Ozone Must meet the national 1 hr ozone standard (0.12 ppm; 120 ppb) by November 15, 2007 Current 8 hr ozone standard June, 2005 EPA classified the HGB area as moderate non-attainment for the 8 hr ozone standard (0.08 ppm; 85ppb) SIP for HGB due to EPA by June 15, 2007 Controls by June 2009; Attainment by June 2010 Must still implement 1 hr controls 4
CURRENT 8 HR OZONE STANDARD Governor Perry requests re-classification on June 15, 2007: Marginal (2007) Moderate (2010) Serious (2013) Severe 15 (2019) Severe 17 (2021) Extreme (2024) Next Steps For the SIP EPA published re-classification proposal in FR on Dec 31, 2007. Comments due by Jan 30, 2008 New timeline established for an updated SIP submittal 5
REAL PROGRESS 6
EMISSIONS REDUCTION PROGRAMS $3 Billion-$5 Billion Clean Air Expenditures in the Houston Area have made a difference 2001-2007 80% NOx Reduction Program 2001-2005 Industry Voluntary Episodic Emissions Reduced 2002 HRVOC Reportable Quantities Lowered 2004-2007 TERP Grants Accelerate Off-Road Diesel NOx Reductions 2004 NOx CEMs 2004 Federal Cleaner Gasoline 2005 TX Low Emission Diesel (LED) 2005 HRVOC Flare, CT, Vent, PSV Monitoring 2005 Voluntary Use of Newly Commercial VOC Gas Imaging Camera Begins 2006 HRVOC Hourly Limit Program Begins 2006 Federal On-Road Cleaner Diesel 2007 HRVOC Annual Cap & Trade Year 1 7
HOUSTON S AIR QUALITY CONTINUES SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT TRENDS One and eight-hour ozone trends show significant improvement The number of exceedances continues to decrease The highest levels (peaks) have decreased The size of the region exposed to ozone is decreasing The size of the population exposed to ozone above the standard is decreasing 8
ONE HOUR OZONE EXCEEDANCES 9
EIGHT HOUR OZONE EXCEEDANCES Houston Eight-Hour Ozone Design Value Trends by Site Each Design Value Covers a 3-Year Period Ending with the Year Indicated 160 155 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Design Value (ppb) Compliance Level HGB MONITORS East C01 Aldine C08 Texas City C10 Deer Park C18/35 Clinton C403 Crawford C407/411 Lang C408 Croquet C409 HRM 1 HRM 7 HRM 8 Bayland Park Manvel Croix Park C84 3-Year Period Ending at End of Year Shown HRM 10
8 Hour Ozone Design Values Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area 8 Hour Ozone Design Values Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area 1985 1995 Montgomery Montgomery Liberty Liberty 121 113 Waller 123 95 Waller 103 94 Harris 115 120 109 88 121 112 124 125 137 126 134 143 132 122 114 Chambers Harris 98 91 95 106 111 104 97 99 99 100 107 104 102 Chambers Fort Bend Fort Bend Galveston 105 Galveston 114 Brazoria Brazoria 89 96 Ozone Monitors and Design Values (ppb-v) 85 < 85 Ozone Concentration (ppb-v) 60 61-70 71-84 85-90 91-100 101-120 121 Ozone Monitors and Design Values (ppb-v) 85 < 85 Ozone Concentration (ppb-v) 60 61-70 71-84 85-90 91-100 101-120 121 Source: HRM 11
8 Hour Ozone Design Values Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area 8 Hour Ozone Design Values Houston-Galveston-Brazoria Nonattainment Area 2005 2006 Montgomery 84 Montgomery 85 Liberty Liberty 93 91 Waller 92 85 Waller 88 86 Harris 89 79 82 93 96 89 87 92 96 100 88 88 96 93 103 99 100 98 98 97 92 92 Chambers Harris 96 80 78 92 93 85 83 88 89 94 88 84 84 85 88 103 91 96 90 94 98 90 Chambers Fort Bend 97 Fort Bend 96 89 Galveston 90 Galveston 93 87 89 83 80 Brazoria 83 Brazoria 79 79 Ozone Monitors and Design Values (ppb-v) 85 < 85 Ozone Concentration (ppb-v) 60 61-70 71-84 85-90 91-100 101-120 121 Ozone Monitors and Design Values (ppb-v) 85 < 85 Ozone Concentration (ppb-v) 60 61-70 71-84 85-90 91-100 101-120 121 Source: HRM 12
HGB AREA WHEN COMPARED TO THE CURRENT OZONE STANDARDS 1 hr Ozone exceedences in 2004 = 38 1 hr Ozone exceedences in 2005 = 35 1 hr Ozone exceedences in 2006 = 22 1 hr Ozone exceedences in 2007 = 10 8hr Ozone exceedences in 2004 = 53 8 hr Ozone exceedences in 2005 = 55 8 hr Ozone exceedences in 2006 = 42 8 hr Ozone exceedences in 2007 = 32 13
STATE OF THE SCIENCE TCEQ Modeling Indicates 8 hr Attainment is Not Achievable Without Significant Emission Reductions from Mobile Sources 14
HGB 2009 NOx Emissions Inventory On-Road Mobile 152 tpd (35%) Non-Road Mobile 90 tpd (21%) Area Source 46 tpd (10%) Point Source 146 tpd (34%) HGB NOx Sources Directly Regulated by TCEQ 192 tpd (44%) Source: TCEQ 57% (247 TPD) emission reductions needed to meet 8hr attainment is greater than entire amount available for TCEQ regulation 15
HGAC Estimate of Mobile Source Reductions That Are Onthe-Books 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2007 Budget 2007 2009 2019 2025 2035 Nox VOC 16
Source: Kelly Kiel, 8-22-06 Air Quality Leadership Meeting 17
Source: Kelly Kiel, 8-22-06 Air Quality Leadership Meeting 18
WHAT S NEXT? Implementation of TCEQ SIP Rules For Current Standard Point Source Controls (Chapter 115) More stringent controls for fittings on floating roof tanks Operational limits on landing floating roofs More stringent requirements for degassing and cleaning of tanks Regulate flash emissions from crude oil and condensate tanks Mobile Source / Area Source Controls Add marine distillate fuels (DMX, DMA, MGO) into the definition of diesel fuels requiring them to be Texas Low Emission Diesel (TxLED) compliant. Clean Fuel Fleets increase fleet turnover to newer, lower emitting engines using TERP funds Voluntary measures such as Compressed work week, Telecommuting incentives, Expanding vanpooling Pay-as-you-drive insurance, divert trucks from non-attainment area, shoreside power for auxiliary engines, hybrid-electric locomotives 19
WHAT S NEXT? So far most of the modeling work by TCEQ has been based on the year 2000 episode. TCEQ is currently conducting modeling using year 2005 & 2006 episodes Should provide use of better emissions inventories May result in better sensitivity of the model to emissions reductions for both NOx and VOC May impact the attainment date 2006 Texas Air Quality Study (Tex AQS II) results are being investigated by scientists Remember, the 2000 AQS study resulted in a concentrated effort towards reducing HRVOC 20
CURRENT 8 HR RULE LITIGATION South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA - Litigants against EPA included City of Cleveland, Env. Groups, NPRA, City of Baton Rouge - D.C. Circuit issued decision on Dec. 22, 2006 rejecting challenge on 8hr classifications and timing. Partial vacature of 8hr Rule. Penalties for not meeting 1 hr attainment. NPRA & EPA filed a petition for re-hearing on March 22, 2007 Denied NPRA filed a petition for Certiorari to the Supreme Court on Sept. 6, 2007.Denied Next steps: EPA to work on re-proposing vacated parts of 8hr Rule EPA to provide guidance on penalties for Severe & Extreme 1 hr areas for not meeting attainment 21
NEW 8HR OZONE STANDARD EPA published a proposed revision to the 8hr Ozone standard on July 11, 2007 EPA science panel (CASAC) recommended lowering to 60-65 ppb EPA published lowering primary standard to 70-75 ppb and to also establish a secondary standard Public hearings held in Philadelphia and Los Angeles on Aug 30, 2007 Public hearings held in Houston, Atlanta, & Chicago on Sept 5, 2007 Written comments were due to the EPA by Oct 9, 2007 EPA must decide by March 2008 per consent decree 22
NEW 8HR OZONE STANDARD IMPACT 23
BACK-UP SLIDES 24
Location of Ozone Monitors in HGB C78 C555 C26 C561 C557 HRM Service Area C560 C553 C559 C554 C562 C408 C8 C1 C405 C604 C551 C15 C607 C617 C610 C410 C411 C81 C603 C611 C53 C403 C1015 C552 C409 C558 C601 C406 C35 C608 C556 C45 C84 C620 C570 C572 C571 C1022 C5005 C618 C619 C1034 TCEQ HRM C1016 City Harris County C11 Independent 25
Total HRVOC Network Average Concentrations at Houston Ship Channel PAMS-GC Monitoring Sites (June-November) 35 30 25 Butadiene t-2-butene c-2-butene 1-Butene Ethylene Propylene Concentration, ppb-c 20 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 Note: Data for Wallisville Road in 2005 and 2006 are not complete. Source: Houston Regional Monitoring (HRM) 26