Planted Forests: Wood Production Potential & Enhanced Trade Opportunities Jim Carle, JB Carle & Associates Session: Economics and Trade, Markets, Profitability of Planted Forests 3 rd International Congress on Planted Forests Porto, Portugal 16-17 May 2013
Credits Part 1: Planted Forests Outlook Extracts from work undertaken whilst Chief/Leader, Forest Management Team, FAO 2008-2011 including: Planted Forests Global Assessment 2005 by Carle, J. Ball, J. De Lungo, A http://www.fao.org/forestry/12139-03441d093f070ea7d7c4e3ec3f306507.pdf Wood from Planted Forests: Global Outlook 2005-2030 by Carle, J, Holmgren, P. Part 2: Sustainability & Legality of Production & Trade: An Opportunity for Planted Forests Extracts from work undertaken as Consultant to the World Bank, 2012 on the PROFOR Discussion Paper Certification, Verification & Governance in Forestry in SE Asia http://www.profor.info/sites/profor.info/files/docs/certification-verification- Governance-SEAsia.pdf
Part 1: Planted forests Outlook Scope & concept Area as percentage of total forest area Rotation length and maturity Scenarios (pessimistic, business as usual, higher productivity) Areas by region, species groups by scenario, 2005-2030 Volume potential by regions, forest products by scenario, 2005-2030 Proportion of global industrial roundwood supply
PLANTED FORESTS Primary Forest of native species, no visible signs of human activity, ecological processes not significantly disturbed Modified Natural Forest of naturally regenerated native species, clearly visible signs of human activity Planted Forests: Scope & Content Continuum of Forest Characteristics Semi-natural Assisted natural regeneration Silvicultural practices for intensive management (weeding, fertilizing, thinning, selective logging) Plantation Planted Productive Protective Forest of native species, established through planting, seeding or coppice of planted trees Forest of introduced or native species, established by planting or seeding for mainly production of wood or NWFPs Forest of native or introduced species, established through planting or seeding mainly for protective services Non-forest Trees outside forests Stands < 0.5 ha; agroforestry, homegardens, orchards, trees in urban environments, shelterbelts, roadstrips & in landscapes
Planted Forests Survey: % of Total Forest Area by Key Countries No data
Rotation length Planted Forests Survey: Rotations & Maturity A Global View 101+ 91-100 81-90 71-80 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 21-30 11-20 -10 Young stands (<0.5 rotation in age) Aged stands (0.5-1 rotation in age) Overaged (> rotation in age) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Million ha
Rotation Rotation length length Planted Forests: Rotations & Maturity Asia View 101+ 91-100 81-90 71-80 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 21-30 21-30 11-20 11-20 -10-10 0 5 10 10 20 15 30 20 40 25 50 30 60 35 40 70 Million ha Million ha Young stands (<0.5 rotation in age) Aged stands (0.5-1 rotation in age) Overaged (> rotation in age)
Planted Forests Survey & Outlook Scenario 1 Pessimistic Area changes half those of immediate past trends, no productivity increases. This scenario assumes current increase of planted forest area will slow down Scenario 2 Business as usual Area changes predicted to continue to increase at the same rate as immediate past trends until 2030. No productivity increases. Scenario 3 Higher productivity 3 Scenario Assumptions Area changes as for Scenario 2, plus an annual productivity increase for management schemes to account for improvements in genetic stock; silviculture & protection; & technology in management & harvesting
Planted Forests Survey: Area (millions ha) by region & major species groups, 2005 Region Africa Asia Acacia Eucalypts Pines Other s/wood Other h/wood Total 5.2 1.2 1.2 0.5 1.4 9.4 3.8 7.6 18.9 15.3 79.2 124.8 NCE Europe 26.4 36.0 12.1 74.5 S Europe 4.6 4.7 9.3 NC America 18.9 7.2 1.7 27.8 South America 0.2 4.5 5.1 0.3 0.9 10.9 Oceania 0.5 2.7 0.2 0.2 3.6 Total 9.1 13.8 73.2 64.0 100.3 260.5
Planted Forests Survey: Area (millions ha) by region & major species groups, 2005 120 100 80 60 40 20 Planted Forests: Area (m ha) by region & major species groups, 2030 Scenario 1 Acacia Eucalypts Pines Other s/wood Other h/wood 0
Planted Forests Survey: Area (m ha)/region & major species groups, 2030 Scenario 1 Region Acacia Eucalypts Pines Other s/woods Other h/woods Total Africa 4.7 1.2 1.4 0.5 1.6 9.4 Asia 4.6 10.6 23.3 16.9 92.8 148.3 NCE Europe 28.8 38.3 12.5 79.6 S Europe 7.5 7.6 15.0 NC America 21.9 9.8 2.0 33.7 South America 0.2 5.2 6.0 0.3 1.0 12.7 Oceania 0.7 2.8 0.2 0.3 3.9 Total 9.5 17.7 84.2 73.5 117.8 302.7
Planted Forests Survey: Area (m ha)/region & major species groups, 2030 Scenario 1 120 100 80 60 40 20 Acacia Eucalypts Pines Other s/woods Other h/woods 0
Planted Forests Survey: Area (m ha)/region & major spp. groups, 2030 Scenarios 2&3 Region Acacia Eucalypts Pines Other s/woods Other h/woods Total Africa 4.2 1.2 1.6 0.5 1.8 9.4 Asia 5.4 13.6 27.6 18.5 106.4 171.7 NCE Europe 31.3 40.6 13.0 84.9 S Europe 10.3 10.4 20.8 NC America 25.0 12.5 2.4 39.8 South America 0.2 5.7 6.5 0.4 1.1 13.9 Oceania 0.8 2.9 0.2 0.3 4.2 Total 9.9 21.4 94.9 83.0 135.5 344.6
Planted Forests Survey: Area (m ha)/region & major spp. groups, 2030 Scenarios 2&3 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Acacia Eucalypts Pines Other s/woods Other h/woods
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2005 (millions m3/yr) Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/ Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses Total Africa 11 9 55 6 1 82 Asia 79 141 264 6 5 495 NCE Europe 17 123 166 8 15 329 South Europe 3 26 26 0 3 58 NC America 7 98 24 0 7 135 South America 19 133 91 0 10 253 Oceania 1 11 31 0 4 47 Total 136 540 659 21 44 1400
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2005 (millions m3/yr) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/Fibre Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2030, Scenario 1 (millions m3/yr) Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/ Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses Total Africa 10 14 57 6 2 89 Asia 83 132 311 18 6 550 NCE Europe 18 129 185 4 17 353 South Europe 5 44 45 0 5 98 NC America 7 106 29 0 7 149 South America 21 157 106 0 12 295 Oceania 1 12 35 0 4 53 Total 146 593 767 29 53 1589
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2030, Scenario 1 (millions m3/yr) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2030, Scenario 2 (millions m3/yr) Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/ Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses Total Africa 10 15 56 6 2 89 Asia 88 146 321 20 7 582 NCE Europe 18 129 185 4 17 353 South Europe 6 55 56 0 6 123 NC America 8 117 31 0 8 164 South America 23 173 115 0 13 323 Oceania 1 13 36 0 4 55 Total 155 647 800 30 57 1689
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2030, Scenario 2 (millions m3/yr) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2030, Scenario 3 (millions m3/yr) Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/ Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses Total Africa 10 22 63 6 2 103 Asia 107 204 417 22 7 756 NCE Europe 20 137 200 4 17 378 South Europe 8 67 69 0 6 150 NC America 10 149 38 0 8 206 South America 34 268 156 0 13 471 Oceania 2 19 55 0 4 81 Total 191 866 998 33 57 2145
Planted Forests Survey: Potential Volumes Available 2030, Scenario 3 (millions m3/yr) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Fuel/ Bioenergy Pulp/Fibre Wood Products Unspecified Harvest losses
Global industrial roundwood supply (all forests),various studies (billions m 3 /year) 3 2 1 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2020 Y2030 0 Sedjo & Lyon 1996 IIED 1996 Solberg 1996 WRI 1998 FAO 1999 ITTO 1999 FRA 2005 Scion 2006
Industrial R/wood Potential of Planted Forests Surveyed/Global Forest Production 61 Country Survey Potential Volume Total R/wood FRA 2005, FAO Industrial R/wood Sedjo et al 1996 Industrial R/wood Scion 2006 Industrial R/wood B m3 B m3 B m3 % B m3 % B m3 % 2005 1.4 1.2 1.8 66 - - 1.7 70 2030 2.3 2.7 Scenario 1 1.6 1.4 61 52 Scenario 2 1.7 1.5 63 54 Scenario 3 2.2 1.9 83 70
Planted Forests: Take away points Planted forests (264 million ha) account for 7% of forest lands or only 2% of land-use Study 61 countries, 95% planted forest area Potential global industrial round-wood supply 2005: est. 66-70% 2030: (varies by estimates for ind. r/wood production) Scenario 1, est. 52-61% (pessimistic) Scenario 2, est. 54-63% (business as usual) Scenario 3, est. 70-83% (higher productivity) If planted forests already established were harvested on maturity, there is scope to considerably increase their contribution to industrial roundwood supply If new afforestation & reforestation adopts improved genetic stock, seedling production, site preparation/planting, tending, silviculture, protection & harvesting scheduling & practices - contribution greater
Part 2: Sustainability & Legality of Production & Trade, Opportunity for Planted Forests in SE Asia Deforestation & forest degradation context (hot spots, trends, causes) International & national calls for proof of sustainability & legality Forest Governance & Law Enforcement (international, regional, national) Synergies between EU FLEGT VPAs, NTLAS, Certification & Verification Planted Forest Opportunities to Prove Sustainability & Legality to Enhance Trade
Global forest cover & deforestation hotspots 28
Africa Europe South America Central America - Central Asia - East Asia - South Asia - SE Asia Asia (total) World Annual forest cover change, % A decade of improvement 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0-0,5-1,0-1,5-2,0 1990 2000 2000 2010 29
Unsustainable Forest Management, Illegal Logging & Forest Products Trade Factors beyond the Forestry Sector: Population growth, poverty, hunger & livelihoods in developing countries Rapid urbanization & residential development New infrastructure development Expansion of industrial agriculture Mineral, oil & gas exploitation Factors Within the Forestry Sector: Unclear, conflicting policies & priorities Low institutional capacity Weak governance & law enforcement Vested interests & low revenue capture Unacceptable Levels of Deforestation & Forest Degradation
International Calls for Proof of: Sustainability & Legality at All Levels UN conventions & international treaties Political summits (G8, APEC, ASEAN etc) Development Banks & Donors (UN, WB, ADB) NGOs (WWF particularly active) Reputable funding institutions (Equator Principles) Forest & forest industry investors (CSRs) Trade Organizations (NWFA, TTF) Governments (Public Procurement Policies, Green Buildings) Wholesalers & retailers (Wood procurement policies) End Users & Buyers (Environmental & Social awareness, EU, US, Japan, Oceania, Latin America)
VLO VLC Forest Governance & Law Enforcement (International, national) SUSTAINABILITY Forest certification (FSC, PEFC, others) VOLUNTARY Verification of Legal Origin (VLO) Verification of Legal Compliance (VLC) CITES Public procurement polices REGULATORY National export and import prohibitions EU s FLEGT Action Plan (VPAs, NTLAS, Public procurement policies) EU s Timber Trade Regulation (10/2010), US s Amended Lacey Act (5/2008) Australia s Illegal Logging Prohibition Bill 11/2012 Mandatory due diligence measures LEGALITY Source: ETFRN News April 2010
New Regulatory Initiatives: FLEG & EU s FLEGT Action Plan both Producer (S), Consumer (D) driven) Voluntary Partnership Agreements (VPAs), legally binding, independent audit National Timber Legality Assurance System, define legality, legally produced wood Public Procurement Policies EU s Timber Trade Regulation (legally binding, 27 countries) according to prescribed due diligence rules, commence March 2013 USA s Lacey Act, legality criteria, due diligence (no clear regulatory framework yet), penalties suggest adopt verification & certification Australia s Illegal Logging Prohibition Bill, due diligence guide & code of conduct effective from 2014/15, monitoring & assessment Government s Green procurement policies (US States, EU, Japan, Oceania) Green Building Initiatives (specify energy, wood standards), USA & EU Voluntary Initiatives Forest Management & Forest Products Certification (FSC, PEFC, Other) Legality Verification of Origin (VLO), forest & producer legal, taxes, fees Verification of Legality Compliance (VLC), forests & wider context Forest Governance & Law Enforcement (International, national)
Synergies: FLEGT Action Plan, Voluntary Certification & Verification EU FLEGT VPAs & NTLAS and Certification & Verification differ in standards, scope, approach & procedures, but can be mutually reinforcing & supportive Certification deepens management commitment to social, environmental & economic sustainability at enterprise level. VPAs & NTLAS strengthen legality requirements and good governance in the forestry & wider sectors Certification & Verification can support VPAs & NTLAS by: Pioneering & demonstrating best practices approaches Testing traceability mechanisms & audit processes Testing case based applications of laws & regulations Providing multi-stakeholder processes Melding tracking & tracing procedures into VPA traceability systems VPAs and NTLAS can support Certification & Verification by: Clarifying legality definitions and harmonizing standards, indicators & procedures Building on multi-stakeholder processes Enhancing transparency
N. America Europe Latin America Indonesia Oceania Laos Malaysia Thailand Vietnam Asia Africa 400 m ha (10%) world s forests certified: <10 m ha (2.5%) in SE Asia Certified Forest Areas by Regions, March 2012 (millions hectares) Total Forest Area & Certified Forest Area in SE Asia, March 2012 (millions hectares) 250 100,0 94.4 Total forest 200 150 100 50 0 80,0 60,0 40,0 20,0-15.8 20.5 Certified forest 19.0 13.8 2.0 0.1 6.0 0.02 0.04
Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Lao PDR Indonesia Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Lao PDR Certification differences between SE Asian countries, forest classifications & standards Percentage Production Forests Certified in SE Asia, March 2012 Percentage Forest Plantations Certified in SE Asia, March 2012 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2% 2% % National 7% % PEFC % FSC 36% 4% 1% 1% 2% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 16% 2% 3% % National % PEFC % FSC 1% 1% 0%
Planted Forest Opportunities to Prove Sustainability & Legality to Enhance Trade More planted forest owners, industries, marketing & trade action in multi-stakeholder processes Increase Certification & Verification to demonstrate enterprise commitment to Sustainability & Legality Certification & Verification interim steps towards VPAs & NTLAS but also facilitate market & trade access to industrialized countries Access to funds from reputable commercial banks Demonstrate CSR (environmental, social & economic) policies & procedures
Planted Forests Advantages to Prove Sustainability & Legality Defined land ownership or tenure Commercial investment Defined site/species/end-use objectives Approved management plans Intensive management (c.f. natural forests) Managed under sustainability criteria Reforestation on harvest Defined harvest yields, products, origin Homogeneity of species & products
Sustainability & Legality is to provide for our next generation Thank you