Social Mobility in the 20 th Century

Social Mobility in the 20 th Century

Florian R. Hertel Social Mobility in the 20 th Century Class Mobility and Occupational Change in the United States and Germany

Florian R. Hertel Florence, Italy Dissertation Universität Bremen, Fachbereich 8 Sozialwissenschaften, 2015 ISBN 978-3-658-14784-6 DOI 10.1007/978-3-658-14785-3 ISBN 978-3-658-14785-3 (ebook) Library of Congress Control Number: 2016944844 Springer VS Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer VS imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden GmbH

Acknowledgements This study is based on my PhD thesis that I wrote at the University Bremen between 2010 and 2015. As such, it owes a great deal to my two mentors, colleagues and friends Olaf Groh-Samberg and Fabian Pfeffer. In their respective ways, Olaf and Fabian took a great part in my formation as a sociologist and very practically helped me write this book by relentlessly diverting my attention to other interesting research questions around the study of social inequality. By doing so, they taught me, among other things, scientific argumentation, statistical analyses and academic writing. In its best moments this book is as much theirs as my own. This book, of course, was not solely conceived in the lofty towers of academia but in the myriad people whom I have been fortunate to meet over the last years. Alex, Anne, Björn, Irene, Jack, Lisa, Maike, Nadine, Nate, Nora, Till, Ossi and Anup were tremendously important in helping me to think and not think about social mobility. Similarly important was my family. Elisabeth, Rolf, Christine, Johannes, Jakob, Anna, Martin, Katja, Philippa, Sophie and Lioba, I can only thank you for having been present, always. My partner Alice has carried the greatest weight of all, not only because she discussed this work relentlessly, but also because she recklessly supported me on every step of the way. She makes this world a better place for me in good times and bad. I dedicate this book to the 186,472 men and women, young and old and of every class, race and ethnicity, who allowed me to write it by disclosing to strangers very intimate information about their family origins and their current lives. I hope the pages to come are worthy of their gift through the formulation of a truthful account of their collective mobility experiences and their successes and failures in reaching what they might have dreamt for their lives. Florence, Spring 2016

Content 1 Introduction... 13 2 Social change and social mobility... 19 2.1 Societal change and the occupational structure... 20 2.2 Social mobility in industrial and post-industrial societies... 39 2.3 Same, same but different?... 45 3 Class and intergenerational mobility in contemporary societies... 55 3.1 Gradational concepts of social inequality... 55 3.2 Micro-classes and occupational class inequalities... 62 3.3 Employment relations and social class: the EGP scheme... 69 3.4 Exploitation and social class: Wright s class scheme... 78 3.5 Social class and work logics: the Oesch scheme... 83 3.6 Class and the division of labor: the Esping-Andersen scheme... 87 4 The derivation of the IPICS class scheme... 91 4.1 Horizontal differentiation according to the work logic... 91 4.2 Vertical differentiation according to employment relations... 97 4.3 Gender, race and class... 103 4.4 Social mobility and IPICS... 107 5 Horizontal and vertical stratification of occupational positions... 119 5.1 Testing the validity of the IPICS classes... 120 5.2 Horizontal differences between occupations... 124 5.3 Vertical differences between occupations... 131 6 Datasets, Operationalization and conceptual issues... 145 6.1 Employed datasets for the analysis of social mobility... 145 6.2 Occupational classifications and IPICS... 150 6.3 Sample and cohort design... 156 7 Empirical description of industrial and post-industrial classes... 159 7.1 Socio-demographic composition... 159 7.2 Class and educational assets... 163 7.3 Class and economic assets... 166 7.4 Class profiles... 174 7.5 Class and structural change... 178 8 Absolute Mobility in Germany over the 20 th century... 185 8.1 Changing distributions of education, origin and social class... 187 8.2 Aggregated mobility patterns... 193 8.3 Changing aggregated absolute mobility patterns... 200

8 8.4 The evolution of segment-specific outflow mobility patterns... 207 8.5 Summary... 212 9 Absolute mobility in the U.S. over the 20 th century... 215 9.1 Changing distributions of education, origin and social class... 218 9.2 Aggregated mobility patterns... 225 9.3 Changing aggregated absolute mobility patterns... 229 9.4 The evolution of segment-specific outflow mobility patterns... 245 9.5 Summary... 252 10 Relative mobility in Germany and the U.S.... 255 10.1 A model of social fluidity for post-industrial societies... 257 10.2 Country-specific adaptations: Germany... 264 10.3 Country-specific adaptations: United States... 265 11 Social fluidity in Germany... 269 11.1 Barriers and bridges: Social fluidity in Germany... 270 11.2 Comparing the IPICS and EGP classes directly: the German case.. 277 11.3 Changing social fluidity across cohorts... 281 11.4 Summary... 297 12 Social fluidity in the United States of America... 299 12.1 Barriers and bridges: Social fluidity in the United States... 301 12.2 Comparing the IPICS and EGP classes directly: the American case 309 12.3 Changing social fluidity across cohorts... 311 12.4 Summary... 328 13 Social mobility in two post-industrial societies... 331 13.1 Comparing social fluidity levels between the U.S. and Germany... 342 13.2 Shortcomings and future work... 346 14 References... 349 15 Online appendix... 379 15.1 The differential treatment of self-employed in the IPICS scheme... 379 15.2 Weighting of the American data... 381 15.3 Class and family... 390 15.4 Methodological strategy for the analysis of social fluidity... 395

Figures Figure 1: GDP per capita growth rates in G7 countries, 1820 to 2014... 21 Figure 2: Women s employment share in selected G7 countries... 24 Figure 3: Part-time employment in selected G7 countries, 1984-2012... 25 Figure 4: Unemployment rate in Germany and the U.S., 1955-2014... 30 Fgure 5: Government expenditure and educational attainment... 33 Figure 6: Income inequality in the U.S. and Germany, 1900-2010... 38 Figure 7: Mobility triangle... 46 Figure 8: EGP classes and employment relations, status and sector... 70 Figure 9: Social mobility processes in the rational action paradigm... 108 Figure 10: Fringe benefits across IPICS classes in the U.S., 1991... 136 Figure 11: Unemployment-age profiles by class, Germany... 139 Figure 12: Unemployment-age profiles by class, United States... 140 Figure 13: Unemployment risk in Germany and the U.S. in 2011.... 142 Figure 14: %-wealthy (>$10,000) and mean HH-worth by class in 2007... 173 Figure 15: Class distribution in Germany and the United States.... 179 Figure 16: Relative evolution of IPICS classes over time in the U.S.... 181 Figure 17: Relative evolution of IPICS classes over time in Germany... 182 Figure 18: Origin class distribution of German men and women by cohort. 188 Figure 19: Educational distribution of German men and women by cohort. 190 Figure 20: Destination class distribution of Germans by cohort... 191 Figure 21: Inflow mobility of German men and women... 196 Figure 22: Outflow mobility of German men and women... 198 Figure 23: Total mobility rates in East and West Germany... 203 Figure 24: Outflow rates by social origin for German men and women... 208 Figure 25: Origin class distribution of men and women, U.S.... 218 Figure 26: Educational distribution of men and women, U.S.... 220 Figure 27: Destination class distribution of Americans by cohort... 222 Figure 28: Inflow mobility of American men and women... 225 Figure 29: Outflow mobility of American men and women... 227 Figure 30: Total mobility rates of in the United States... 231 Figure 31: Regional differences in outflow mobility in the United States... 235 Figure 32: Total mobility rates by race and ethnicity in the United States... 239 Figure 33: Outflow rates by social origin for men and women, U.S.... 247 Figure 34: Distribution of IPICS classes across EGP classes, Germany... 279 Figure 35: UD parameters for change in social fluidity in Germany... 286

10 Figure 36: Best model 20 for changing fluidity in Germany, men... 292 Figure 37: Best model 21 for changing fluidity in Germany, women... 295 Figure 38: Fluidity Differences by ancestry in the United States... 303 Figure 39: Distribution of IPICS classes across EGP classes, U.S.... 310 Figure 40: UD parameters for change in social fluidity, United States... 316 Figure 41: UD model for fluidity change by ancestry for men, US... 318 Figure 42: UD model for fluidity change by ancestry for women, US... 320 Figure 43: Best model 20 for changing fluidity in the U.S., men... 323 Figure 44: Best model 20 for changing fluidity in the U.S., white men... 324 Figure 45: Best model 21 for changing fluidity in the U.S., women... 327 Figure 46: Social Change and social mobility chances... 341 Figure 47: Strength of mobility chances in Germany and the U.S.... 343 Figure 48: Comparing fluidity trends across countries within genders... 345 Figures online appendix Figure A. 1: Matrices for mobility models for 8 8 contingency tables... 397 Figure A. 2: Parameter matrices for selected topological models... 399 Figure A. 3: Modelling cohort change by race for men, United States... 402 Figure A. 4: Modelling cohort change by race for women, United States... 403

Tables Table 1: Potential relation of social change and intergenerational mobility 48 Table 2: Class locations and assets in Wright s class scheme... 80 Table 3: Class differentiation according to Oesch s class scheme... 85 Table 4: The Esping-Andersen classes... 89 Table 5: Horizontal differentiation in the IPICS scheme... 93 Table 6: Industrial and post-industrial class scheme (IPICS)... 99 Table 7: Mobility preferences by social origins... 116 Table 8: Expectations about horizontal class differences... 120 Table 9: Expectations about vertical class differences... 124 Table 10: Characteristics indicating horizontal differences, Germany... 126 Table 11: Characteristics indicating horizontal differences, U.S.... 128 Table 12: Evidence for horizontal differences... 130 Table 13: Characteristics indicating vertical differences, Germany... 132 Table 14: Characteristics indicating vertical differences, U.S.... 135 Table 15: Evidence for vertical class differences... 144 Table 16: Occupational coding schemes used for class assignment... 151 Table 17: Coding schemes and the intergenerational association... 155 Table 18: Socio-demographic characteristics by IPICS classes, Germany. 160 Table 19: Socio-demographic characteristics by IPICS classes, U.S.A.... 161 Table 20: Educational attainment within IPICS classes, Germany... 163 Table 21: Educational attainment within IPICS classes, United States... 165 Table 22: Net monthly earnings position and quintiles, Germany... 168 Table 23: Net monthly earnings position and quintiles, United States... 169 Table 24: Net Household income position and quintiles, Germany... 170 Table 25: Net Household income position and quintiles, U.S.... 171 Table 26: Characteristics of the German analysis sample... 186 Table 27: Schematic presentation of 4 different mobility trajectories... 201 Table 28: Ratio of up- to downward mobility by gender and region... 205 Table 29: Ratio of long to short-range mobility by gender and region... 206 Table 30: Changing mobility between first and last cohort (men/women). 211 Table 31: Characteristics of the American analysis sample... 216 Table 32: %-point differences between regional and aver. mobility rates.. 234 Table 33: DI for men (lower triangle) and women (upper triangle)... 241 Table 34: Ratio of up- to downward mobility by gender and ancestry... 242 Table 35: Ratio of long to short-range mobility, gender and ancestry... 243

12 Table 36: Changing mobility between first and last cohort (men/women). 250 Table 37: Effect matrices for inheritance parameters... 258 Table 38: Effect matrices for hierarchy parameters... 259 Table 39: Effect matrices for affinity parameters... 262 Table 40: Effect matrix for the gender parameter... 263 Table 41: Effect matrices for German-specific fit parameters... 265 Table 42: Effect matrices for U.S.-specific fit parameters... 267 Table 43: Barriers and channels shaping social fluidity in Germany... 269 Table 44: The general pattern of social fluidity in Germany... 271 Table 45: Parameter estimates of mobility channels and barriers... 272 Table 46: Cell parameters for men (upper value) and women (lower)... 273 Table 47: Differences between cell parameters between segments... 275 Table 48: Comparing EGP and IPICS, Germany... 280 Table 49: Modeling of cohort change in social fluidity in Germany... 284 Table 50: Changing mobility barriers and channels, German men... 291 Table 51: Changing mobility barriers and channels, German women... 294 Table 52: Barriers and channels shaping social fluidity in the U.S.... 300 Table 53: The general pattern of social fluidity in the United States... 302 Table 54: Parameter estimates of mobility channels and barriers... 304 Table 55: Cell parameters for men (upper value) and women (lower)... 306 Table 56: Differences between cell parameters between segments... 308 Table 57: Comparing EGP and IPICS, United States... 311 Table 58: Modeling of cohort change in social fluidity in the U.S.... 314 Table 59: Changing mobility barriers and channels, American men... 322 Table 60: Changing mobility barriers and channels, American women... 326 Table 61: Models for country differences in social fluidity... 344 Tables online appendix Table A. 1: Self-employed incomes in the U.S. and Germany... 380 Table A. 2: Row-% in the ODC table, German men... 382 Table A. 3: Row-% in the ODC table, German women... 384 Table A. 4: Row-% in the ODC table, Amercian men... 386 Table A. 5: Row-% in the ODC table, American women... 388 Table A. 6: Ratio of cross-class HH to average earnings of men... 393 Table A. 7: Survey, region and migration background effect, Germany... 401