Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits for 39 th Annual Alaska Resource Conference November 14, 218 Anchorage, AK by Dr. Ian Mead, Assistant Administrator for Energy Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis www.eia.gov
Key takeaways World energy consumption increases from 575 in 215 to 736 in 24, a 28% increase with more than 6% of the increase in non-oecd Asia Transportation energy use rises by nearly 3% between 215 and 24 with almost all of the growth occurring in non-oecd regions Fossil fuels remain dominant, supplying 77% of the world s energy consumption in 24 Recent Issues in Focus highlights possible levels of ANWR oil production Base case shows production beginning in 23 and peaking at 88, barrels/day in 241 Reduction in U.S. imports range from 4% to 12% from 231 through 25 across cases Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 2
World energy consumption rises 28% between 215 and 24 in the Reference case with most of the increase occurring in non-oecd countries World energy consumption 8 Past trend Outlook 6 Non-OECD 4 2 OECD 199 2 21 215 22 23 24 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 3
Asia accounts for most of the increase in energy use in non-oecd regions in the Reference case Non-OECD energy consumption by region 5 Past trend Outlook 4 3 Asia 2 1 199 2 21 215 22 23 24 Middle East Africa Americas Europe and Eurasia Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 4
Energy consumption increases over the projection for all fuels other than coal in the Reference case with renewables being the fastest-growing energy source World energy consumption by energy source 25 2 15 1 Past trend Outlook Petroleum and other liquids Coal Natural gas Renewables 5 Nuclear 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 5
Petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption grows by 18% between 215 and 24 in the Reference case because of growth in non-oecd regions Petroleum and other liquids consumption million barrels per day 12 Past trend Outlook 1 8 6 Other non-oecd Non-OECD Americas Non-OECD Asia 4 2 199 1995 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 OECD Asia OECD Europe OECD Americas Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 6
Sectoral shares of world liquids use hold relatively constant in the Reference case even as total consumption increases Refined petroleum and other liquids consumption by end-use sector 14 12 1 8 54% 36% Transportation Industrial 56% 36% 6 4 2 6% 4% Buildings Electricity 5% 2% 215 22 225 23 235 24 Note: Percentages express a sector s liquids consumption compared to total use of these fuels across all end uses. Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 7
In non-oecd regions, industrial coal consumption declines slightly as natural gas and liquids consumption increases in the Reference case Industrial energy consumption by fuel 2 OECD 2 Non-OECD 18 18 Renewables 16 16 Electricity 14 14 12 12 Coal 1 1 8 8 Natural gas 6 6 4 4 Liquids 2 2 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 8
Motor gasoline and diesel continue to dominate the transportation fuel mix, but jet fuel, natural gas, and electricity grow fastest in the Reference case Transportation sector delivered energy consumption by source 15 12 9 Electricity Diesel (including biodiesel) Other liquids 6 3 215 22 225 23 235 24 Motor gasoline and E85 Natural gas Jet fuel Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 9
In non-oecd countries, light-duty vehicle energy consumption grows rapidly; in OECD countries, portion related to air transportation increases Passenger transportation energy consumption 6 5 4 OECD 6 5 4 Non-OECD 2-3 wheel vehicles Rail Bus Air 3 3 2 2 Light duty 1 1 215 22 225 23 235 24 215 22 225 23 235 24 Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Dr. Ian Mead, CSIS IEO217, September 217 1
Freight transportation energy consumption remains relatively constant in OECD countries while international marine transportation grows in non-oecd countries Freight transportation energy consumption OECD 35 35 Non-OECD 3 3 Pipeline 25 25 Marine 2 2 Rail 15 1 5 215 22 225 23 235 24 15 1 5 215 22 225 23 235 24 Heavy heavy truck Medium heavy truck Light heavy truck Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 217 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 11
Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge Three cases related to lifting of drilling moratorium (high, medium, and low) Key assumptions First lease sale in 221 and 1-year time line for first production Fields take 2-3 years to peak for 3-4 years before declining Potential production based on profiles of similar fields Cases highlight uncertainty associated with future production Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 12
Case studies show range of range of 2 million barrels a day at peak production Crude oil production million barrels per day United States 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 AEO218 Reference case (Alaska) AEO218 Reference case (Lower 48 U.S.) 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 million barrels per day Alaska 3. 2.5 Incremental production in High ANWR case 2. Incremental production in Mean ANWR case 1.5 Incremental production in Low ANWR case 1..5 AEO218 Reference case (Alaska). 21 215 22 225 23 235 24 245 25 Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 218 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 13
Reduction in U.S. imports range from 4% to 12% from 231 through 25 across cases Expenditures for imports of crude oil and petroleum products billion of dollars 3 25 2 15 1 5 217 235 24 245 25 AEO218 Reference Low ANWR Mean ANWR High ANWR Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 218 Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 14
Key takeaways World energy consumption increases from 575 in 215 to 736 in 24, a 28% increase with more than 6% of the increase in non-oecd Asia Transportation energy use rises by nearly 3% between 215 and 24 with almost all of the growth occurring in non-oecd regions Fossil fuels remain dominant, supplying 77% of the world s energy consumption in 24 Recent Issues in Focus highlights possible levels of ANWR oil production Base case shows production beginning in 23 and peaking at 88, barrels/day in 241 Reduction in U.S. imports range from 4% to 12% from 231 through 25 across cases Global Energy Trends and Where Alaska Fits, November, 218 15