Trends and Drivers in Sustainable Food Security Setting Science and Technology Priorities for Green Growth and Agricultural Biotechnology to alleviate environmental problems (including hunger & poverty) Wilhelm Gruissem ETH Zurich OECD Workshop on Biotechnology for Environment in Future: Science, Technology and Policy Rimini, 16-17 September 2010
2010+: an EXTRAORDINARY time of great concerns! Global food security!enhanced productivity + nutrition!increased yield!sustainable production! Water availability!drought-tolerant crops!crops with improved water use efficiency! Bioenergy!Biomass production to help meet demand for fuel should not compete with food production! Climate change!reduce CO 2 footprint!increase fertilizer use efficiency A Bio-Based Economy must be part of the solution!
2010+: a PERFECT STORM for agricultural deficits!! Low stocks of staples!! Reduced funding for plant breeding and training for several decades!! Declines in world food prices over previous decades and now sharp increases!! Higher standards of living in China and India!! More people and higher urbanization!! Higher energy prices and demand for biofuel feedstocks!! Climate change!! GMO crisis in Europe A Bio-based Economy must urgently address these issues!
In the next 50 years we have to produce more food than ever before in the history of humankind GROWING WORLD POPULATION (B) RISING CEREAL DEMAND (MMT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 1981 1999 2015 2030 1981 1999 2015 2030 TRANSITION NATIONS DEVELOPED NATIONS DEVELOPING NATIONS!!! World population continues to increase Per capita food consumption continues to rise Consumers continue to demand improved taste, convenience, and nutrition Source: FAO, WHO
Unprecedented demand growth for agricultural commodities 3,000 2,500 +28% Million Metric Tons 2,000 1,500 1,000 +102% +125% +40% Rice Cotton Soybeans Wheat Corn 500 +76% 0 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030
Unprecedented demand growth meets unprecedented challenges 3,000 Million Metric Tons 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 +76% +125% +40% +102% +28% More production with: Rice less water Cotton less fertilizer Soybeans less chemicals Wheat not much Corn more land more extreme weather need better varieties need better agronomy 0 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030
Demand for maize will double by 2050!! Maize production increases 2001 2006 : 3.7% annually Maize consumption increases > 3.7% annually driven by! Economic growth (2004-06 per annum)! 9% in Asia! 6% in Africa! 2% in industrialized countries! Livestock revolution: meat & dairy! Population growth! Use of maize for biofuel India: 2000 2025! Meat: +176%! Milk and vegetables +70% Source: IFPRI 2008
The impact of manure from increased animal production can be reduced by GM Corn and Enviropig engineered with phytase to be launched commercially
Transgenic phytoremediation of agricultural land is ready for deployment but constrained by current regulation Enhanced phytoremediation of volatile environmental pollutants with transgenic trees S.L. Doty et al. PNAS 2007, vol. 104, No. 43 Small, volatile hydrocarbons, including trichloroethylene, vinyl chloride, carbon tetrachloride, benzene, and chloroform, are common environmental pollutants that pose serious health effects. We have developed transgenic poplar (Populus tremula! Populus alba) plants with greatly increased rates of metabolism and removal of these pollutants through the overexpression of cytochrome P450 2E1, a key enzyme in the metabolism of a variety of halogenated compounds. The transgenic poplar plants exhibited increased removal rates of these pollutants from hydroponic solution. When the plants were exposed to gaseous trichloroethylene, chloroform, and benzene, they also demonstrated superior removal of the pollutants from the air. In view of their large size and extensive root systems, these transgenic poplars may provide the means to effectively remediate sites contaminated with a variety of pollutants at much faster rates and at lower costs than can be achieved with current conventional techniques. http://www.pnas.org/content/104/43/16816.full? sid=dc531b0e-2f0e-4e36-95a1-475ac32e7c07 http://luirig.altervista.org/photos/p/populus tremula.htm http://www.aphotoflora.com/devonandcornwall/page42.html
Challenge to the Bio-Economy: while world cereal markets are expanding, yield growth and agricultural R&D are stagnating World Development Report 2008
Agricultural research: how to do more with less money? Source: Food: the growing problem, Nature 466, 29 July 2010
Challenges to the Bioeconomy: surge in cereal and oil Prices Commodity prices US$ / ton Source: Von Braun, 2008
1990 2010: What has not changed!!!""#$%&'()*+,%-./0(1% (234-%5'(2%6-3/%7%89))9'/:%!! ;/4(23,9/0%<'=2(61%9/% >?(943@%A'.6-%>,93%3/*% B&>C>%!! DEF%'?%6-2%<''(%)9=2%9/% (.(3)%3(23,% Paulo Whitaker/Reuters
Society is in transition OIL ECONOMY BIO ECONOMY Implications for land-use, the environment, rural development, agriculture and the use of agricultural feedstocks
As the world is moving towards 2020, there will be increased demands Food Animal feed Chemicals Materials Fuel Multiple use of crops and agricultural feedstocks Novel crops for industrial use Need for productive land Use of marginal land Politics / policies of virtual water Food security and quality
Setting the priorities right Science is more essential for our prosperity, our health, our environment and our quality of life than it has ever been before. President Barack Obama in a 2010 speech at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington DC
Estimates of rate of return on public research & development investments Year of study Subject Annual rate of return (%) 1979 Tomato harvester 37 46 1968 Agricultural research 35 40 1968 Agricultural research 28 47 1979 Agricultural research 37 1979 Agricultural research 45 1981 Agricultural research 37 1958 Hybrid corn 20 40 1991 All academic science research 28 1993 Agricultural research 43 67 2000 Pharmaceuticals 30+ 1967 Poultry 21 25 Source: Rising Above the Gathering Storm (National Academies, 2006) Scott, G. et al. The Economic Returns of Basic Research and the Benefits of University- Industry Relationships Science and Technology Policy Research (Univ. Sussex, 2001). From: What science is really worth, Colin Macilwain, Nature 465, 2010
Agriculture in a Bio-Based Economy The Fast-Lane Forward Bringing the first products to market!! Agronomic practices and logistics!! Collaborations!! Field trialing!! Seed production Rapid improvement with advanced plant breeding!!sequencing and marker maps!!marker-assisted breeding!!hybrids!!propagation techniques Sustainable growth with biotech traits Broad portfolio of traits!! Biomass!! Improved nutrition!! Drought tolerance!! Nitrogen use efficiency!! Disease resistance!! Etc.
GM crops contribute to the reduction in herbicide and pesticide use 10 of 13 studies show a reduction of mycotoxins in Bt maize compared to conventional maize USDA surveys show a reduction in pesticide and herbicide use in GM crops Texas AgriLife Extension Service, Texas A&M System Iowa State University Extension
The true benefits of GM technology are often not known or misrepresented to the public Several rounds of a representative farm survey reveal that Bt-cotton adopting farmers use 41% less pesticides and obtain 37% higher yields, resulting in an 89% gain in cotton profits on average. Bt Cotton in India: Development of Benefits and the Role of Government Seed Price Interventions, AgBioForum, 2009.
The true benefits of GM technology are often not known or misrepresented to the public If GM technology had not been available in 2008, maintaining global productions levels would have required additional plantings of millions of hectares of conventional soybeans, corn, cotton and canola. This total area would have been equivalent to about 6% of the arable land in the US. Soybean + 4.6 million ha Corn + 3.5 million ha Cotton + 2.2 million ha Canola + 0.3 million ha GM crops: global socio-economic and environmental impacts 1996-2008, PG Economics
CORN YIELD POTENTIAL TO 2030 IN THE UNITED STATES 300 280 BUSHELS PER ACRE 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 Germplasm Agronomic Practices Advanced Breeding Biotech
Biotech crops are major drivers of production increases I S A A A International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications Paulo Whitaker/Reuters
Biotech crops are major drivers of production increases, however... novel traits from the public domain have little chance to contribute to this optimistic scenario in the near future, if present regulation is maintained. Paulo Whitaker/Reuters
Golden Rice is a good example for the regulatory burden imposed on useful GM crops developed in the public sector
European consumers continue to be opposed to GM food How strongly, if at all, would you say that you support or oppose GM food? Source: IGD Consumer Unit 2008. Base: All adults
The GM regulation process in the EU is complex and time consuming Submit application to national authorities Forward documents to European Food Safety Agency Report with recommendation within 6 months to European Commission and member states Decision within 3 months Report is open for public comments Sent for approval by Standing committee on the food chain and animal health confirm Authorisation/no authorisation If council cannot agree on decision within 90 days, decision of European commission is adopted If no qualified majority can be found: recommandation passed to Council of Ministers Council of Ministers
A threat to the European Bioeconomy: The number of GM field trials in the EU has drastically decreased European GM field trails 1992-2008 Source: GMO Compass
Destroyed field trials in Germany GMO field trial blocked Other criminal activity Field destruction
There has to be a paradigm shift in the way we move research into application Discovery Development Demonstration Deployment Plant science Crop science The need to integrate research into application
Stand Establishment!!Germination rate!!cold germination!!cold growth!!herbicide tolerance Key traits to be managed for food and energy crops Reproduction!!Heterosis!!Genetic confinement Stress Tolerance!!Drought tolerance and recovery!!heat!!cold!!salt!!photoperiod Improved Processing!!Lignin content!!c6/c5 ratio!!cell structure!!organ structure Hormone biology!!brassinolides!!gibberellins!!auxin Photosynthesis!!Planting density!!light harvesting / utilization!!chloroplast position and number!!pep carboxylase, SBPase, FBPase Nitrogen Economy!!Uptake and translocation!!reduction and partitioning Plant Architecture!!Branching!!Stalk thickness!!root length!!stature!!leaf size / angle
Model plants are useful to screen for high-priority traits! Drought (including surrogates)! Low Nitrogen (including surrogates)! Cold and Freezing! Heat (all stages)! Light (e.g., shade tolerance)! UV tolerance! Photosynthetic efficiency! Low ph and aluminum! High ph! Growth rate! Flowering time! Stay green and maturity! Plant architecture! Fertility! Organ size! Stature! Stalk thickness! Ozone! High CO 2! High Nitrogen! Carbon/Nitrogen! Seed morphology! Biotic, fungal! Composition! seed oil! seed protein! lignin! sterols! and others
High-throughput pipelines move traits efficiently from model plants to crops Energy Crops DNA Sequencing Transform into Model Plant Gene-Trait Associations Evaluate in Model Crop Switchgrass, Miscanthus, etc. Various Plant Species Arabidopsis Rice Hundreds of candidate trait genes identified! Biomass yield! Plant architecture! Tolerance to environmental stresses! Nitrogen use efficiency! Disease resistance Food Crops Corn, Soybean, etc.
New trait development: assessing gene trait associations Drought tolerance Increased yield Heat tolerance Drought recovery Nutrient utilization Root growth Cold germination Increased biomass Shade tolerance Flowering time Stature control Salt tolerance
Single genes can have strong effects on crop performance By introducing a mutated rice gene that suppressed branching of shoots, but increased branching in panicles, rice yield in field trials was improved by 10%. Jiao et al., Nature Genetics, 42, 541 544 (2010)
New trait development: Improved drought tolerance Science 320: 171-173, 2008 Control New Trait
Drought tolerance in wheat Of 24 strains of drought-tolerant GM wheat tested in field trials, two lines exceeded the yield of the non-gm variety by 20% under drought conditions. G. Spangenberg, Bio2008, San Diego
New trait development: Better nitrogen use efficiency Control New Trait
Single genes can increase efficient use of nitrogen Rice (cv. Nipponbare) was engineered by introducing a barley AlaAT cdna (Muench and Good, 1994) under the control of a tissue-specific promoter (OsAnt1) (Figure 1a). Using Agrobacterium-mediated transformation, 82 independent OsAnt1/AlaAT transgenic rice lines were produced. When compared with control plants, the majority of T 1 transgenic plants (67%) showed an increased biomass and grain yield (data not shown). To determine the impact of the OsAnt1/AlaAT construct on the plant phenotype and seed production, three independent single-insertion transgenic homozygous lines were selected (AGR-1/7, AGR-1/8 and AGR-3/8). At maturity, all three lines showed a significant increase in biomass and grain yield compared with controls: 30% 34% (P < 0.05) and 31% 54% (P < 0.05), respectively (Figure 2a,b). Figure 3. Comparison between OsAnt1/AlaAT transgenic rice and control plants (a c). Transgenic plants (AGR-1/7) produced more tillers and showed more vigorous growth than control plants in hydroponic solution containing ammonium as nitrogen source (a). Transgenic plants in hydroponic solution showed bushier, finer and more branched root systems than control plants (b, c). Genetic engineering of improved nitrogen use efficiency in rice by the tissue-specific expression of alanine aminotransferase, Plant Biotechnology Journal, 2008.
Fundamental plant research is still needed for arable agriculture and food crops increased yield defence and resistance drought tolerance low inputs higher utility Close working relationship between the research community, the growers, and the users of the feedstocks
Plant biotechnology is becoming increasingly important for development of novel bio-based products and non-food crops increased yield bulk chemicals energy higher utility improved processing Close working relationship between the research community, the growers, and the users of the feedstocks
The Fast-Lane-Forward: key messages for the Bio-based Economy!! Urgency of addressing world needs! food, feed and energy!! Facilitate what have we learned from past and current breeding programs! Integration, synthesis, scale, co-ordination, innovation!! Achieving sustainable food security requires public trust in novel traits!! Urgent R+D investments to develop new crops for food and feedstocks, and facilitate biomass production for biofuel Time is short!