Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030 Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction Prepared by The Danish Board of Technology RISØ DTU Ea Energy Analyses Strasbourg, 23 April 2008
Future Energy Scenarios for EU27 in 2030 Purpose To provide a general understanding of challenges, barriers and opportunities Advise on needed policies and measures Approach EU-27 technology scenarios for 2030 illustrating barriers, challenges and opportunities Key measures: more efficient energy use and renewable energy Use the STREAM tool developed in the project The future Danish Energy System by the Danish Board of Technology Two concrete goals 1. Reduce CO2 emissions by 50 per cent compared to the 1990-level 2. Reduce oil consumption by 50 per cent compared to the present level
Process of dialogue Politicians Answers Utilities Energy planners Project developers Researchers Questions Others
Phase I Phase II Workshop Dinner debate Final workshop MEPs Stakeholders Experts -Energy -Transport -Savings MEPs Dialogue on - targets - measures - scenarios Scenario report Road-map Model tool+data Public model tool Draft report Updated tool, data, and scenarios Website Dissemination Nov/Dec. 2007 Feb. - March April - May 2008 Sep. - Oct.
Five regional scenarios West North + one aggregated EU scenario Central East South
Developing scenarios Economic growth Fuel prices Saving potentials STOA Scenario RESULTS Infrastructure Technology Development Renewable resources
STREAM was developed STREAM in cooperation model between: The Danish TSO (Energinet.dk), The major Danish power producer (DONG Energy), Consultants EA Energy Analyses Ltd. and Risø National Laboratory Energy flow for Sustainable model Energy, Technical University of Denmark. STREAM has been further developed to cover all EU-27 countries. - Each country can be modelled individually or in groups of countries. Characteristics Energy demand model System balance model 1. It includes the whole energy system 2. It is fast to use (changing of scenarios during a meeting) 3. Publicly available - transparent
Key assumptions Economic growth rate as in DG Tren baseline from 2005 approx. 2 % p.a. for EU 27 STOA reference close to DG Tren baseline IEA fuel prices PJ
Main measures in scenarios Energy Savings Buildings, appliances Industry Transport Reduce fuel consumption of conventional cars/lorries Increase share of electric cars and plug-in hybrids Modal change: car/lorry => bike/train/bus/ship Exploit potentials for district heating Best available technologies
Main measures in scenarios Renewable energy Utilize all potentials for wind, bioenergy and municipal waste Solar and wave (more expensive) Nuclear As in DG Tren baseline Fossil fuels Reduced according to increased use of renewables
Energy savings
Large potentials Saving potential Description Heating existing buildings 42 % Improved insulation etc. Lighting 65 % Compact fluorescent lighting Water heating 65 % Major appliances 40-60 % Small appliance standby 40 % High efficient electric water heater and solar water heater Increasing appliance efficiency standards at 2-3% per year Reduce standby power req. of televisions, set-top boxes etc. Source: McKinsey Eurima difficult to harvest EPC (European Policy Centre) Gain without pain: towards a more rational use of energy: New policy measures are needed + active use of existing directives, such as the Eco-Design Directive. Third-party financing (such as ESCO s) should be promoted. All public sector organizations should have ambitious targets (including the European Institutions). Metering and individual pay by the user is important.
Energy intensity Energy consumption per GDP TJ / MEUR 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Bulgaria Romainia Slovak Republic Estonia Czech Republic Lithuania Hungary Poland Latvia Slovenia Finland Malta Cyprus Belgium Greece Portugal Spain The Netherlands Sweden France Luxemburg Germany Italy Austria United Kingdom Ireland Denmark
TJ/MEUR Energy intensity in the 6 countries with lowest intensity compared to EU 27 average energy intensity 9 8 7 20 % lower energy consumption per GDP 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 EU 27 average energy intensity Germany UK Italy Ireland Denmark Austria Average of the 6 MS with lowest energy intensity
Liters of oil per m 2 Building regulation - new buildings Average energy consumption in Danish buildings
kwh/year kwh/år Appliances Example: refrigerators and freezers 800 700 600 500 400 300 Køleskab Refrigerator Fryser Freezer 200 100 0 New nyt 1975 New nyt 1988 New nyt 2001 Best Bedst 2006 06
End use energy efficiency Efficiency improvements in reference and in scenarios Percentage saving compared to today s level Energy form Efficiency improvement in DG Tren and reference Additional savings in scenarios Tertiary Electricity 20-30 10-20 Heating 20-30 6-10 Industry Energy 20-30 10-16 Residential Electricity 20-35 10-20 Heating 20-40 7-15
PJ/year Final energy demand 2030 EU 27 reference and scenario 20000 18000 16000 14000 Reference Scenario 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Transport Residential Tertiary Industry
Transport
Transport: efficiency improvements g/km 200 180 160 140 Average sold car in EU 120 100 80 60 Average car in EU27 scenario 40 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Today s efficiency potential
Alternative fuels Electric vehicles share Region Cars Trucks/Cargo North 25% 20% Central 20% 20% South 15% 15% West 20% 15% East 15% 20% Biofuel: 5 % Gas: 5 %
Modal change Goods Lorry => train and ship Passengers Car => train, bus, bike Approx. 8 % of transport work shifted
District heating
District heating District heat as share of final energy demand, excl. transport 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Finland Lithuania Denmark Estonia Latvia Poland Czech Republic Sweden Bulgaria Slovenia The Netherlands Slovak Republic Romainia Hungary Austria Portugal Spain Germany Italy United Kingdom France Belgium Greece Luxemburg Ireland Cyprus Malta
District heating 2% => 18% 5% => 16% 16% => 26% 6 % => 19 % 12% => 23% Today => scenario 0 % => 17 % Share of final energy demand, excl. transport
Renewable energy
Renewable energy for electricity Production
Bioenergy share of gross energy consumption
Bioenergy 33 % 25 % 19 % 23 % 30 % Share of gross energy cons. Includes Municipal Solid Waste 24 %
Wind Power Wind power as share of total electricity consumption 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Denmark Spain Germany Ireland The Netherlands Portugal Greece Austria Luxemburg United Kingdom Sweden Italy Finland Cyprus Belgium Latvia Estonia France Lithuania Poland Czech Republic Romainia Hungary Malta Slovak Republic Slovenia Bulgaria
Wind power 20 % 16 % 23 % 20 % 6 % Share of electricity production 15 %
Current use of solar energy
Solar heating 2 % 5 % 2 % 4 % 3 % Share of gross energy consumption 11 %
Solar electricity 5 % Share of electricity production Incl. Photovoltaics, CSP
General results
PJ/year RE resources utilised in EU 27 scenario 10000 9000 8000 7000 Potential 2030 Utilised in scenarios 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Biomass (EEA) Biogas (Green-X) CSP (SET Plan) + photovoltaic (Green-X) Wind (Green-X) Municipal waste (EEA)
Mix of fuels for power production in the scenario for 2030 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Wave energy Geothermal Power PV/CSP Municipal Waste Biogas Biomass Wind Power Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Oil 10% 0% EU 27 North South Central West East
PJ 90,000 Gross energy consumption EU 27 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-10767 4955 18417 9266 10065 22872 9235 10376 20758 13455 13238 12185 23350 23061 22645 9069 22041 10342 4223 12131 Nuclear RE Natural gas Coal Oil 50% oil target 2005 2030 DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030
CO2-emissions - EU 27 m. tco2 / year 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 Other energy Electricity and district heat Transport 50% CO2 target 1,000 500-1990 2005 2030 DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030
Economic results Annuitized value of the entire energy system in the scenario year (2030) i.e. the average annual capital costs costs for fuels, operation and maintenance, CO2-costs Not considered Health benefits Cost of modal change and efficiency in transport Transaction costs related to implementation Technology and fuel costs may divert from projections Therefore: interpret results with caution
Economy base case Annuitised cost - extra costs in scenario compared to reference million 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000-150,000-200,000 Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total Oil: 62 $/bbl CO2: 20 /ton -0.1 % of GDP
Economy sensitivity million 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0-50,000-100,000-150,000-200,000-250,000-300,000-350,000 Annuitised cost - extra costs in scenario compared to reference Fuel and CO2 Maint. Capital cost Total Oil: 110 $/bbl CO2: 20 /ton -0.7 % of GDP
PJ Results for a region Case: South Gross energy consumption Gross energy consumption (South) 20000 18000 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 971 633 2382 685 2642 1077 3925 5327 4968 527 2098 2258 5908 2167 1643 7099 6845 6355 761 3287 2005 2030 DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030 Oil Coal Natural gas RE Nuclear 50% oil target
CO2-emissions mio. tco2 / year CO2-emissions (South) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1990 2005 2030 DG TREN Reference 2030 Scenario 2030 Transport Electricity and district heat Other energy Storage CO2 50% CO2 target
General conclusions CO2 and oil reduction targets for 2030 can be met Requires Efficiency improvements incl. transport sector Utilization of available RE resources Infrastructure (electricity, district heating) Intelligent energy system Research, development and demonstration Economy Sensitive to fuel and CO2-prices Modest cost/benefits compared to total GDP
Next steps
Developing scenarios Economic growth Fuel prices Saving potentials Implemen tation Infrastructure Technology Development Renewable resources
Technology lifetime 2030 Buildings Infrastruct. Power plants Wind turbines Cars Appliances 10 20 30 40 Years
Municipalities/ cities Goals EU s quota system To utilise practical experience Planning Infrastructure for electricity, natural gas and district heating Taxes and incentives Research, Development and Education Transnational planning of offshore windmills City planning and transport policies Green Campaigns Local Commitment CO2 Neutral Houses Existing buildings Urban districts To develop energy efficient vehicles Energy labelling and dynamic norms Demonstration of flexible energy system Consumers - Producers Hydro Wind District Heating Public Purchase Policy Electric/plug-in hybrid cars/buses Intelligent Energy System Global EU Member states Local