TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM WITH 6% RES EDF R&D The full costs of electricity provision OECD NEA Paris, 2 January 216 1
System effects are strongly country specific and depend on the penetration level of VRE VRE (212) Curtailment 3% % 11% 1,6% 21% <,3% 1% % 8% <,1% 2% % 9% 3,8 % Source: IEA 2 % of demand % of RES generation
Simulation of the EU Energy Roadmap «HiRES 23» scenario HiRES scenario EU energy roadmap Generation Mix 23 High RES 23 GW Load factor (h/yr) 6 % RES (generation) Solar (PV) 22 11 Onshore wind 28 19 Offshore wind 25 32 Hydro 12 38 4 % Wind & Solar Fuel Price Thermal fossil fuel Wind offshore Biomass & Geothermal Nuclear Solar Wind Onshore Hydro power Coal Gas Oil 86 /t 1 /MMBtu 17 /baril CO 2 35 /t 3
What is this study about? Flexibility to handle variability Connecting RES and load GW Demand Net demand PV Wind Hydro Keeping the lights on Balancing the economics Euro/MWh 14 Marginal prices 4 12 1 8 6 4 2 PV Marginal price 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 22 24 h
And the good news are The lights will stay on so no emerging market for candles! 5
That said Geographical diversity does help, but there is still significant variability at European level Integrating a large share of variable RES requires a coordinated development of RES and networks Variable RES are key to the decarbonisation of electricity production but the system still needs backup capacity for security of supply Not only conventional generation, but also variable RES, will contribute to balancing and ancillary services Storage and active demand may to a certain extent supplement generation to balance supply and demand Variable RES production should potentially provide new services like fast frequency response (inertia) The pace of deployment of RES should be optimised in order to limit costs of storage or excessive curtailment 6
15% 3% Load factor Geographical diversity does help, but there is still significant variability at European level Wind onshore generation for different geographical areas Source RTE France Brittany Farm Installed power : Day 28 GW 25 2 Onshore wind daily average generation 3 climatic years Average load factor : 25% Winter 15 1 5 Summer Average difference of daily generation: 9 GW 7-3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 3 33 36 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC You can reduce the variability of wind and PV at local level but the correlation in wind regimes acts as a limit at continental level
Integrating a large share of variable RES requires a coordinated development of RES and networks RES geographical distribution Network development scenario PV (GW) Offshore wind ( GW) Onshore wind (GW) 82 24 3 8 1 5 5 5 7 5 9 2 29 5 14 32 3 5 3 2 32 19 72 28 67 2 7 1 4 71 3 47 45 2 25 TYNDP 214 +47 GW en 16 ans Interconnection reinforcement (GW) similar to TYNDP 214 8 Interconnection reinforcement TYNDP 21 (GW)
Variable RES are key to the decarbonisation of electricity generation but the system still needs backup capacity for security of supply GW 7 6 With 4% wind and PV the need for backup generation increases 6 GW GW 3 25 No Wind & Solar Total : 444 GW European thermal installed capacity 25GW With Wind & Solar Total : 352 GW 5 2 4 3 15 2 1 The need for baseload generation is reduced by 16 GW 1 5 89GW 89GW 78GW 71GW 86GW 34GW 99GW - -1-2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Average CO 2 with 6% RES = 125 g CO 2 /kwh Average CO 2 with additional coal/gas replacement = 73 g CO 2 /kwh (average CO 2 Nuclear Coal CCGT OCGT today = 35 g CO 2 /kwh) Full decarbonisation can only be achieved with a significant share of carbon free base load, such as nuclear 9
Not only conventional generation, but also variable RES, will contribute to balancing and ancillary services GW European Demand Middle of the day valley Net demand (demand variable RES) Penetration of RES > 1 % RES need to provide downward flexibility as well as ancillary services 4 GW ramp between Sunday and Monday 1
Variable RES production should potentially provide new services like fast frequency response Synchronous generators Frequency Due to lower inertia a reference incident leads to - a risk of load shedding (f< 49 Hz),8 % of the time - a violation of ENTSO-E security limit (f< 49,2 Hz) 25% of the time PV Wind turbines Curtailment to avoid stability problems during critical periods can only be limited if variable RES have the technical capability to provide fast frequency response (synthetic inertia) 11
5 4 Storage and active demand may to a certain extent 3 supplement generation to balance supply and demand 2 1 8 6 4 2-2 1 M /y -1 1 8 6 4 2-2 5 Net benefit of storage for different countries 1 GW 2 GW 4 GW 1 GW 2 GW 4 GW3 1 GW 2 GW 4 GW Weekly storage (4 h) -1 Sans stockage existant -2 France Germany + Austria UK -3 4-5 3 3 43 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 Sans stockage Stockage Stockage -1 Sans existant stockage existant Stockage x2 existant Stockage x3-1 Sans existant stockage existant Stockage x2 existant Stockage x3-1 -1-1 1 2-2 existant existant x2 3 existant x3-2 -1 1 GW 2 GW 4 GW 1 GW -2 2 GW 4 GW 1 GW 2 GW 4 GW -2-3 -2-3 -2-3 -4-3 -4-3 -4-3 Net benefit interval as a function of storage cost and installed capacity 4 2 1-4 Max GBR Gains nets (intervalle) Gains coûts fixes Stockage Gains coûts variable existant x3 Net system benefits Defaillance interval + Hydro + Stockage existant x2 Gains Gross benefit bruts Gains coûts Gains fixes coûts Gains fixes Fixed coûts cost fixes savings Gains coûts Gains Variable coûts costs variables Gains variables savings coûts variables Defaillance Curtailement Defaillance + Defaillance costs Hydro Hydro + other + Pertes losses Hydro Pertes + Ecretement Pertes Ecretement Ecretement Storage and flexible demand contribute to the flexibility required for balancing but do not replace the need for backup generation 12
Difference to the base price ( /MWh) The pace of deployment of RES should be optimised in order to limit costs of storage or excessive curtailment VRE value in comparison to base price per country 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 UK Italy Spain 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7 France Germany Italy With ~% RES, the first MWs of RES have a value close to the base price France Spain Germany Poland UK % Penetration rate in energy Wind PV The system value of variable RES will decrease as their penetration levels increases and this is more pronounced for PV 13
VARIABLE RES INTEGRATION COST ARE SYSTEM SPECIFIC SINCE THESE DEPEND ON THE TYPE OF SYSTEM AND THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SYSTEM System size Taille du système VRE/Demand correlation Corrélation Demande/Prod fatale Maillage du réseau interne 1 Internal Grid strength 75 5 25 Flexibilité Production Generation and demand flexibility Large interconnected systems Large island system Small island systems Interconnections Interconnexions Quality of service Incident dimensionnant System effects depend on grids and the generation mix. We see RES integration costs as the difference between the total system cost of two alternative pathways to serve a given demand: a pathway with VRE and a pathway without VRE The key cost components required in order to estimate total system cost are Grid infrastructure investment Production costs : energy, flexibility, reserves and other ancillary services System adaptation costs : Costs associated to technologies and services required to ensure the reliability, operability and security of a system with a large share of VRE Adaptation/replacement of protection systems Investment in new technologies to mitigate the effects of low inertia and short circuit strength and advanced solutions for voltage and frequency regulation Advanced supervision and control solutions to operate a system under a new paradigm System adaptation costs to ensure reliability, operability and security add to these costs and increase significantly for penetrations above 4 %. The cost for reaching ultra high penetrations (> 8%) are still uncertain 14
Geographical diversity does help, but there is still significant variability at European level Integrating a large share of variable RES requires a coordinated development of RES and networks Variable RES are key to the decarbonisation of electricity production but the system still needs backup capacity for security of supply Not only conventional generation, but also variable RES, will contribute to balancing and ancillary services Storage and active demand may to a certain extent supplement generation to balance supply and demand Variable RES production should potentially provide new services like fast frequency response (inertia) The pace of deployment of RES should be optimised in order to limit costs of storage or excessive curtailment 15
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! 16 Report available from : http://chercheurs.edf.com/fichiers/fckeditor/commun/innovation/departements/summarystudyres.pdf