Transition towards a sustainable energy system: from fuels to materials Wim C. Sinke ECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & European Photovoltaic Technology Platform
Contents the transition challenge quantified ingredients for the solution from fuels to materials: from the frying pan into the fire? opportunities and challenges for polymers 2 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009 Background photo: www.bso.vvs.be
The challenge quantified 20 ~ 30% emission reduction by 2020 3 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
The challenge quantified 80%+ emission reduction by 2050 4 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
The challenge quantified or: 100% of energy-related emissions 5 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
The challenge quantified 10 years left to reverse historic trends 6 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
The challenge quantified 2.5 kw primary energy 24/7 p.p. 7 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
The challenge quantified 6 kw p.p. in NL 8 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
The challenge quantified 10 kw p.p. in USA 9 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Some views on the future of our energy supply 10 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
World CO 2 emissions 11 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
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World energy consumption 14 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
World energy consumption 15 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
World energy consumption 16 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
EU Strategic Energy Technology (SET) Plan Technology development in support of 2020 (and 2050) targets Large-scale, industry-led initiatives per technoloy area: e.g. Solar Europe Industry Initiative (PV + CSP) vision: 12% + 3% = 15% contribution to EU electricity by 2020 To be financed by industry, member states and EC 17 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
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Cumulative PV installations 1998-2008 19 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Total global 2008 investments in renewables bigger than in conventional power generation 20 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
1979 c-si 22% price decrease for every doubling of cumulative production 2007 Thin Film 2009 polysilicon shortage 2009 Courtesy: EPIA, October 2009 21 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Generation cost solar electricity to reach grid parity soon 22 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Solar Europe Industry Initiative / SET for 2020 PV is not only a long-term option PV can contribute to 2020 targets potential contribution to EU electricity consumption in 2020: baseline scenario (4%) accelerated scenario (6%) paradigm shift scenario (12%) M. M. Lippert,, SAFT 23 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
24 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009 Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis
Solar energy in the energy transition EJ/a geothermal other renewables solar thermal (heat only) solar power (photovoltaics (PV) & solar thermal generation (CSP) wind energy biomass (advanced) biomass (traditional) hydroelectricity nuclear power gas coal oil 1400 1000 600 200 the challenge: 250 1000 EJ 50.000 200.000 GWp 0.25 2 million km 2 PV modules 2000 2020 2040 year PV & CSP 2100 Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de (example scenario) 25 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
From fuels to materials: materials consumption for VLSPV (TW scale) 100,000 km 2 PV systems (minimum for any impact): 0.1 ~ 10 µm conversion layers: 10 4 ~ 10 6 m 3 (>>10 4 tons) 1 ~ 10 µm conductive layers: 10 5 ~ 10 6 m 3 (concentrators: 1 100 ~ 1 1000 ; add optics & trackers) 0.3 ~ 3 mm encapsulation layers: 3 10 7-3 10 8 m 3 + cabling (Cu, Al?) + support structures (concrete, Fe, wood?) 26 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Polymers & energy: why polymers? functionality sustainability cost 27 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Polymers & energy (examples) functionality opto-electronic / optical solar cells & solid state lighting (semiconductors) concentrators (light management) electrochemical fuel cells & H 2 production (membranes) blue energy (membranes) physical solar energy (encapsulation) blue energy (membranes) mechanical wind energy (composites for blades) solar energy (framing, support structures) 28 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Polymers & energy sustainability low energy input recyclability 29 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Polymers & energy cost not per kg, but per unit of service delivered 30 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Polymers & energy: challenges high performance at low cost long lifetime / small degradation of functionality alternatives for fossil-fuel-based feedstock recyclability of composites and mixed materials Courtesy Canon 31 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
In conclusion Polymers are indispensible for the energy transition Major challenges remain to be addressed Opportunities for science, technology and application are huge 32 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009
Greenpeace 33 KNCV Seminar Energy & Polymers Wageningen 22 October 2009