Wind energy in Europe markets Turkish Wind Energy Congress (TWEC 2012), 7 November 2012, Istanbul Christian Kjaer CEO European Wind Energy Association (EWEA)
More than 600 members from almost 60 countries Manufacturers with a leading share of the global wind power market Component suppliers Research institutes National wind and renewable associations Developers Electricity providers Finance and insurance companies Consultants Contractors www.ewea.org/membership This combined strength makes EWEA the world s largest and powerful wind energy network
EWEA s leading members
The problem: EU importing 54% of its energy and rising Oil Gas Coal Uranium EU share of proven global reserves 0.5% - 0.8% 1.4% - 2% 3.5% 1.9% Years of domestic production 7.7 7.8 years 14.4 14.8 years 50 years Source: European Commission
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Three Major Global Challenges Energy crisis and sustained high fuel prices Environmental crisis (IPCC: 25-40% CO2 reduction) Financial and economic crisis And three major European Challenges: App. 350 GW of new electricity generating capacity must be constructed before 2020 (50% of current total) Increasing energy imports at higher and unpredictable cost Ineffective competition in EU power market and insufficient investment in power infrastructure
GW Annual wind and nuclear power capacity installations 2001-2011 (GW) - Globally 45 New annual global wind power and nuclear capacity (GW) 2001-2011 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 New global nuclear capacity 2,7 5,0 1,7 4,8 3,8 1,5 1,9 0,0 1,1 3,7 4,0 New global wind power capacity 6,5 7,3 8,1 8,2 11,5 15,2 19,9 26,6 38,6 38,8 41,2 Source: EWEA, GWEC, IAEA 2012 Total 30 222
Number of reactors Power production from new global wind power capacity 2006-2010 (in nuclear reactor equivalents) Power production from annual global wind capacity additions 2006-2011 in nuclear reactor electricity equivalents 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Equivalent nuclear reactors* 6,0 7,8 10,4 15,1 15,2 16,1 Total 71 Source: EWEA, GWEC, IAEA 2012
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Contribution of electricity from renewables to total EU electricity consumption 1990-2010 (%) 25 2009 EU Renewable Energy Diective 34% by 2020 20 2001 EU Renewable Electricity Diective 21% by 2010 18,2 21,4 16,4 15 11,9 12,0 12,7 13,0 13,3 13,0 12,7 13,1 13,4 13,2 13,6 14,2 12,7 12,6 13,6 13,6 14,2 15,1 10 5 0 Source: Eurostat; 2010 is preliminary
New EU electricity capacity 1995-2011
1. Wind Power Market in Europe Cumulative wind power installations in the EU (GW) 100 94 90 84.6 80 75.1 70 64.7 60 56.5 50 48.0 40 34.4 40.5 30 23.1 28.5 20 10 2.5 3.5 4.8 6.5 9.7 12.9 17.3 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Annual onshore and offshore installations (MW) 10,000 582 883 866 8,000 93 318 373 6,000 4,000 4 51 170 259 90 7,526 8,201 7,935 9,929 8,764 8,750 2,000 4,377 5,743 5,203 5,749 6,114 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Onshore Offshore
Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2011 (cumulative, MW) FAROE ISLANDS 4 IRELAND 1,631 European Union: 93,957 MW Candidate countries: 1,930 MW EFTA: 565 MW Total Europe: 96,607 MW PORTUGAL 4,083 SPAIN 21,674 UNITED KINGDOM 6,540 FRANCE 6,800 DENMARK 3,871 NETHERLANDS 2,328 BELGIUM 1,078 LUXEMBOURG 44 NORWAY 520 GERMANY 29,060 SWITZERLAND 46 SWEDEN 2,907 ITALY 6,747 CZECH REPUBLIC 217 AUSTRIA 1,084 POLAND 1,616 SLOVENIA 0 CROATIA 131 FINLAND 197 SLOVAKIA 3 HUNGARY 329 ESTONIA 184 LATVIA 31 LITHUANIA 179 FYROM 0 GREECE 1,629 ROMANIA 982 BULGARIA 612 UKRAINE 151 TURKEY 1,799 MALTA 0 CYPRUS 134
Net electricity generating installations in EU 2000-2011 (GW) 120 116 100 80 84 60 47 40 20 4 3 2 1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.01 20-10 -14-14 Gas Wind PV Large hydro Biomass Waste CSP Small hydro Geothermal Peat Ocean Coal Nuclear Fuel oil
Wind share of total electricity consumption Denmark Spain Portugal Ireland Germany EU Cyprus Greece Sweden UK Estonia Netherlands Italy Romania Bulgaria Austria Lithuania Belgium France Poland Hungary Luxembourg Latvia Czech Finland Slovakia Slovenia Malta 6.3% 5.4% 5.2% 4.5% 4.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3 % 3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 12.0% 10.6% 15.9% 15.6% 25.9% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
EU Commitment Reduce economy-wide domestic EU GHG emissions by 80-95% in 2050 compared to 2005 In March 2011, the Commission s Climate Roadmap stated that GHG emissions in the power sector need to fall by 93-98% to reduce overall emissions by 80% If zero carbon emissions must be achieved in the power sector by 2050, reality is that no new carbon-emitting power plant can be built after 2015 because of the long lifetime of power stations 12 December 2011, the Commission published its Energy Roadmap to 2050 outlining 5 pathways to decarbonise the EU electricity sector. According to the Roadmap, wind power will meet between 32% and 49% of EU power demand in 2050. 6 June 2012, the European Commission published its Renewable Energy Strategy, stating that current policy initiatives are not adequate to achieve our long-term energy and climate policy objectives, while considering post 2020 policy options
2. EU regulatory framework 2009 Renewable Energy Directive 1) Binding RES targets - Binding national targets - RES-E target estimated at 34% - Indicative trajectory per Member State 2) Support mechanisms 3) Grids: priority/guaranteed access to the grid and priority dispatch are required 4) Streamlined, transparent and proportionate administrative procedures 3) National Renewable Energy Action Plans include: - Targets per technology - Support mechanism and market design - Administrative procedures - Grid access procedures and grid development plans
Renewable Energy Directive Wind energy production - National Renewable Energy Action Plans 213.4 GW 84.9 GW
EU wind power investments, excluding infrastructure (EWEA) 2011-2020: 192 billion, including 66 billion offshore (34%) 2021-2030: 257 billion, including 145 billion offshore (56%)
Turkey, a key partner for the European industry Open markets and a level playing field in international trade are key to the European wind power industry More than 48% of EU companies in wind energy sector also have activities outside the EU Positive trade balance bn 2007 2008 2009 2010 Exports 6,6 7,8 8,5 8,8 Imports 2,7 3,0 3,2 3,2 Balance 3,9 4,9 5,3 5,6
Turkey: a key European market Turkey is an EWEA emerging market since 2009 Growing demand for electricity Good wind resources Ambitious targets Customs Union with EU Open trade is essential to the European wind industry Positive trade balance: 5.6 bn in 2010 48% of EU companies have activities outside the EU Key concern local content requirement Inefficient allocation of capital with multiplication of production facilities Inefficient supply chains cripple competitiveness Growth of wind industry in EU and Turkey requires: Long term political perspective Comprehensive trade policy favouring reciprocal market access
Future development Cumulative installations in EU (GW)
New EU power capacity installations 2011-2030 (GW) European Commission Energy Roadmap 2050, December 2011 Diversified Supply Scenario 2011-2020 Total: 356 GW 2021-2030 Total: 353 GW 10% 90 25% 37 46 13% 60% 214 40 11% 12 Thermal fossil Nuclear Thermal RE Renewables 250 20 3% 6% 71%
European Commission s Renewable Energy Strategy Published 6 June 2012 current policy initiatives are not adequate to achieve our long-term energy and climate policy objectives it is crucial to consider the options for concrete 2030 milestones Whatever form the post 2020 renewable energy milestones take, they must ensure that renewable energy is part of the European energy market [The milestones] must ensure that Europe maintains its research and industrial leadership globally For this reason, the Commission will also launch proposals for a renewable energy policy regime for the post 2020 period
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