INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The G8 Climate Change Initiative: What it means for building performance Paul Waide Senior Policy Analyst Energy Efficiency and Environment Division International Energy Agency RESNET 07 San Diego, February 2007 OECD/IEA -2007
G8 Gleneagle s summit mandate to IEA on buildings To promote energy efficiency in buildings, we will Invite the International Energy Agency to: review existing building standards and codes in developed and developing countries develop energy indicators to assess efficiency identify policy best practices INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE
50 Reference Scenario: Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Fuel billion tonnes 40 30 20 Increase of 14.3 Gt (55%) 10 0 1990 2004 2010 2015 2030 Coal Oil Gas INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Buildings account for 37% of all emissions in 2030
Reference Scenario Cumulative energy supply investment, 2005-2030 25 $20.2 trillion (in $2005) Energy sector investment (Trillion US$) 20 15 10 5 $4.3 trillion $11.3 trillion Biofuels Coal Gas Oil Electricity 0 All Sectors Building-related INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Buildings account for ~49%
Alternative Policy Scenario: Key Policies for CO 2 Reduction 42 38 Reference Scenario Increased nuclear (10%) Increased renewables (12%) Power sector efficiency & fuel (13%) Electricity end-use efficiency (29%) Gt of CO 2 34 Fossil-fuel end-use efficiency (36%) 30 Alternative Policy Scenario 26 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Improved end-use efficiency accounts for two-thirds of avoided emissions in 2030 in the APS
Alternative Policy Scenario in 2030: Residential and Commercial Buildings Total demand is 444 Mtoe lower (11% less than RS; by region 7% in OECD, 13% in non-oecd) These sectors account for 40% of all WEO APS final energy savings in 2030 but 68% of electricity savings Residential sector accounts for 70% of the savings in the two sectors Electricity demand is 14% lower (12% OECD, 17% non- OECD) which produces savings of 2320 TWh in 2030 This equates to 412 GW of capacity requirements ~ total capacity in China today INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Avoided energy investments to 2030 of > US$1.2 Trillion
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Light s Labour s Lost: Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 LIGHT S LABOUR S LOST Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting OECD/IEA -2006
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Global lighting energy consumption: no-policies, current-policies and least-life cycle cost scenarios LIGHT S LABOUR S LOST Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting Lighting electricity consumption (TWh) 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 No Policies Current Policies LLCC from 2008 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 745 TWh = 17.5% 1635 TWh = 38.4%
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Cumulative benefits of the LLCC from 2008 scenario to 2030 LIGHT S LABOUR S LOST Avoids 28000 TWh of electricity use (almost 6% of all electricity demand over the same timeframe) Total costs of lighting are US$2.6 trillion (1000 billion) lower Avoids 16 Gt of CO 2 emissions Net cost of avoided CO 2 emissions are negative at -US$161/tonne Policies for Energy-efficient Lighting
Energy Technology Perspectives Scenarios and Strategies to 2050 ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2 0 0 6 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 OECD/IEA - 2006
Global CO 2 Emissions 2003-2050 Mt CO 2 Baseline, ACT and TECH plus Scenarios 60 000 +137% ACT Scenarios 2050 50 000 Other Buildings 40 000 Transport 30 000 +6% +21% +27% Industry Transformation 20 000-16% Power Generation 10 000 0 2003 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Map No CCS Low Efficiency TECH Plus 2050 AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE
IEA buildings work post Gleneagles Current IEA activity for buildings includes: Development of energy performance indicators Compilation of building codes and standards, policies and measures Evaluation and identification of policy best practice Database on policies Assessment of policies and good practice for improvements of existing buildings Different papers and studies on: High Rise Building Refurbishment Energy efficiency in existing North American buildings Financing energy efficiency in buildings A final buildings end use assessment book INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE
Raising the profile of building energy efficiency among policy makers The Government of India and IEA held a workshop on best practice in building codes in October 2006 In November 2006 IEA held a high-level workshop on: Energy Efficiency in Buildings: Meeting the Gleneagles Challenge in 2006 Building energy efficiency will be a main theme of: EU/G8 meeting: Berlin, April 2007 Biennial IEA Ministerial: Paris, May 2007 2007 G8 Heiligendamm summit: Germany, June 2007 More workshops are planned for: China (March 2007), Brazil, Mexico, South Africa & Russia INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE
IEA recommendations to G8 IEA will make final report and policy recommendations to the G8 summit in Japan 2008 Will also make recommendations to the Heiligendamm G8 Summit, Germany 2007 concerning: The need for, stringency and enforcement of building codes and standards Measures to support construction of Passive and Zero Energy Buildings Implementing packages of policies to address energy efficiency in existing buildings Systematic gathering of data and internationally standardised building energy performance indicators INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L ENERGIE