Luis Martinez International Transport Forum Photo: Wiki commons
Model framework International Trade (world regions)* Centroids Mode split Weight model Assignment to routes by mode Model steps sequence Model by commodity type (19 classes) Outputs: International trade in weight by OD pair International trade tonne-km by OD pair and mode * Source: OECD Economics Directorate
Production/consumption centroids Based on Population density, regional GDP and minimum influence area of 500 km within the country The model considers 294 centroids
Model framework International Trade (world regions)* Centroids Mode split Weight model Assignment to routes by mode Model steps sequence Model by commodity type (19 classes) Outputs: International trade in weight by OD pair International trade tonne-km by OD pair and mode * Source: OECD Economics Directorate
Network model Infrastructure and routes a) Road (highways or main roads) b) Rail (station, network) c) Sea (ports, routes) d) Air (airports, commercial flights) Differential speeds by mode, infrastructure and continent Links between modes (including dwelling times) and to centroids OpenStreetMap, OpenFlights, Sea Project, UCL
[Billion tonne-km] Shift in world freight patterns Evolution of international trade in tonne-km ( 350% increase 2010-2050) 300 000 250 000 200 000 Australia + New Zealand Africa Latin America and Caribbean 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Imports Exports ASEAN Other Europe China Euro Area + UK Other Asia USA + Canada
Average distance [km] Sea predominance maintains, but Evolution in mode share and in average distance of international trade Tonne-km by mode (2050) 8 200 8 000 7 800 97.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% Air Rail Road Sea 7 600 7 400 7 200 7 000 6 800 6 600 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 Road international freight share would increase about 40% with current infrastructure, while freight average hauling distance increase by 17%
Freight volume patterns change (2010-2050)
North Atlantic remains important, but
North Pacific surpasses North Atlantic volume
Strong increase in volume in the Indian Ocean and the Suez Canal
Significant future pressure for inland connections, especially in Asia and Africa
Relevance of domestic transport linked to international freight 90% 10% Domestic transport linked to international trade International freight volume Increase of 10% from 2010 to 2050 This domestic component transport represents linked a large to international share of total trade hinterland relevance freight presents volume (national great variability, and international) depending on in some the geographic countries: location of the main China world producers/consumers o 9% 2010 can grow up to 11% China: 2050 (9%): (if coastal Coastal pattern of GDP concentration concentration of activity mantains) United States of America India: o 16% (14%): 2010 can Less grow coastal up to 40% concentration 2050 of activity
First insights Strong increase of international trade related freight in Asian countries The main freight corridor may shift from the North Atlantic to the North Pacific Generates significant volume also in the hinterland links between countries and within continents o Increase of road volume without infrastructure improvements Domestic transport linked to international trade represents a significant component of overall international freight volume (10%) Relevance of connections from/to ports This component requires targeted policies to mitigate its impact
Other modelling future work Ubiquitous urban shared mobility Replace all individual and bus mobility by shared taxis o Assess urban car fleet required and system s performance Pax and Vehicles in System 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Vehicles Pax
Other modelling future work International passenger air traffic forecast model World flight services potential/real network Demand forecasting Assess the impact of the sector