CEM8 Scene Setter: Tracking Progress and Identifying Further Opportunities Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency 8 th Clean Energy Ministerial, Beijing, China, 7 June 2017 IEA
The energy landscape has shifted since the inaugural CEM in 2010 Shares in growth in world energy demand Nuclear 2% Renewables 12% Coal 10% Renewables 32% Gas 23% Coal 47% Oil 27% Oil 16% Nuclear 0% Gas 31% 2000-2010 2010-2016 Since 2010, efficiency measures have slowed down growth in global energy consumption. Renewables and natural gas account for almost two-thirds of the growth.
Global CO 2 emissions flat for 3 years an emerging trend? Gt 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 2015 2016 IEA analysis shows that global CO 2 emissions remained flat in 2016 for the third year in a row, even though the global economy grew, led by emission declines in the US & China
Air pollution is a universal problem, especially in emerging economies Premature deaths due to air pollution Deaths per 100 000 people High (>100) Medium (50-100) Low (0-50) Source: World Health Organization 6.5 million premature deaths every year are caused by pollution from power plants, factories, cars and trucks globally. Air pollution related health risks are largest in cities around the world.
The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Solar PV and onshore wind Energy storage Electric vehicles Nuclear Transport Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Lighting, appliances and building equipment More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Building construction Transport biofuels Not on track Accelerated improvement needed On track Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future
Can CEM and MI further accelerate progress? Observations: Multiple areas moving forward well aligned with some CEM work streams Nevertheless critical to ensure continued focus on appropriate policies Some CEM workstream actions in these areas Opportunity for CEM to consider what activities and policies could help push these technologies to green No or limited CEM activity Opportunity for CEM to consider launching initiatives and catalysing targeted support Not on track Accelerated improvement needed On track On-track (green) technologies have had range of CEM and MI focus; orange technologies have had some CEM focus, but not fully leveraging key policy opportunities; red technologies have some new MI focus, but none from CEM.
Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) On-track: Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical Global electric car fleet 2 000 Others Germany 1 500 1 000 France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway 500 Japan 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USA China The global electric car fleet passed 2 million last year, but sales growth slipped from 70% in 2015 to 40% in 2016, suggesting the boom may not last without sustained policy support
On-track: Wind & solar transforming the power sector: system integration is key Share of wind and solar in total electricity generation in selected CEM countries Denmark Spain Germany Italy United Kingdom Australia United States Japan Canada China Chile India % of wind and solar in 2010 % of wind and solar in 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Better grids, more flexible power plants and storage & demand side response will be needed to integrate larger shares of wind & solar in a secure and cost-effective way
Not on- track : Carbon Capture, Utilization and storage CCUS has vital role in all-the-above clean energy solutions All credible pathways to a sustainable future include CCUS Power sector has multiple de-carbonization pathways, many industrial sectors do not CCUS is a reality 20+ years of operational experience 17 large-scale CCUS projects across several industries throughout the world But its deployment is slower than what is needed Holistic approach critical, including specific incentives and tailored policies CCUS must be freed from being a hostage of a global carbon price
USD (2016) billion Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost Global clean energy RD&D spending Top 3 IT company R&D spenders 40 30 20 10 0 Mission Innovation 2012 2015 2021 Private Public Top 3 firms Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming coming mostly mostly from from governments. Mission Innovation could provide a much needed boost.
Conclusions Accelerating technological progress strengthens economies, energy security and sustainability Policies and RD&D drive down costs and improve performance Clean energy technologies are progressing, but few on track Need to focus on all technologies; lack of progress on some puts even more pressure on others IEA is proud to host & support CEM Secretariat, and committed to help all CEM Members achieve their clean energy objectives