Bio-CCS status and negative emissions after COP21 Dr. Uwe Remme Workshop on Applicable Bio-CCUS concepts for member states 2030-2050 Technical and financial aspects of Bio-CC(U)S 10 May 2016
IEA Energy Technology & Policy activities Where do we need to go? Where are we today? How do we get there?
Reaching 2 degree ambitions Contribution of technology area and sector to global cumulative CO 2 reductions 60 50 6DS to 2DS 6DS End-use fuel switching 10% GtCO 2 40 30 End-use efficiency 38% Renewables 32% CCS 12% 20 10 2DS Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 1% Nuclear 7% 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 All low-carbon technologies across conversion and end-use will be needed to achieve the 2DS. Bioenergy provides around 10% of the cumulative reductions. Bio-CCS accounts for 2% of the cumulative reductions.
ETP modelling framework Primary energy Conversion sectors Final energy End-use sectors Service demands Renewables Electricity Industry Material demands Gasoline Hybrid model Fossil Electricity and heat generation Electricity T&D Diesel Natural gas Heat Buildings Long-term simulation Space heating Water heating Lighting Nuclear Fuel conversion etc. Passenger mobility Freight transport Transport ETP-TIMES (bottom-up optimisation) Fuel/heat delivery Mobility Model (MoMo) ETP model finds cost-effective investment and operation of energy technologies to meet energy demands from now to 2050
Primary energy demand by fuel and scenario 300 Global primary energy demand 250 2013 EJ 200 150 6DS 2050 100 4DS 2050 50 2DS 2050 0 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass and waste Other renewables Share of fossil fuels in primary energy is in the 2DS with 45% almost halved by 2050 compared to today (81%), biomass becomes the largest energy source in 2050 in the 2DS.
CCS plays vital role in 2DS, but has to grow from its infancy Industrial applications account globally for more than 40% of CO 2 captured in 2050. CCS largely deployed in non-oecd countries, accounting for more than 75% of CO 2 captured in 2050.
Status and progress of CCS 70 60 Large-scale CO 2 capture potential based on existing plants and projects under construction or planned Maximum projected capacity European Union 50 China MtCO 2 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Australia Middle East and Africa Brazil Canada Norway United States 15 large-scale CCS projects are in operation and 7 under construction. Only one is linked to bioenergy (Illinois, bio-ethanol plant).
Role of biomass with CCS in the 2DS 7 CO 2 captured (Gt CO 2 ) 6 5 4 3 2 Bio-CCS fuel transformation Bio-CCS power generatiion Fossil CCS industry and fuel transformation Fossil CCS power generation 1 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 Almost 1 Gt of CO 2 captured in 2050 is linked to biomass with CCS, corresponding to 16% of total CO 2 captured globally.
Global biofuel production 25 Hydrogen and biogas w CCS 20 Biodiesel w CCS EJ 15 10 5 Ethanol w CCS Biogas w/o CCS Biodiesel w/o CCS Ethanol w/o CCS 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 Biomass with CCS accounts for almost 30% of liquid and gaseous biofuel production in 2050 in the 2DS.
From 2 degrees to well below 2 degrees 40 Energy- and process-related CO 2 emissions by sector in the 2DS 30 Gt CO 2 20 10 0 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 Transport Industry Agriculture Buildings Other transformatino Power Industry and transport account for 45% of direct CO2 emissions in 2013, but they are responsible for 75% of the remaining emissions in the 2DS in 2050.
Emerging importance of negative emissions and sinks Beyond low-carbon energy technologies: Behavioral aspects, e.g. avoid and shift in the transport sector Material efficiency Potentially increasing need Biomass with CCS: To achieve and maintain net-zero emissions, i.e. offsetting remaining carbon emissions (across sectors, but also within technologies, e.g. co-firing of biomass in coal-fired CCS power plants to allow further use of these plants) To still achieve a more stringent cumulative carbon budget But, also more complex planning of biomass with CCS plants: sourcing of biomass plus CO 2 transport and storage infrastructure
More on ETP, CCS and bioenergy Explore the data behind ETP Carbon capture and storage www.iea.org/etp www.iea.org/topics/ccs/ Bioenergy www.iea.org/topics/renewables/
Thanks! uwe.remme@iea.org