Moving to 100% clean energy: the role of local governments in electrifying buildings San Francisco Commission on the Environment Rachel Golden, Sierra Club May 14, 2018
Today s presentation 1) Basics what s building electrification? 2) Why building electrification is critical to a stable climate, clean air, healthy homes, and clean energy 3) Challenges and strategies to move the buildings sector from gas to 100% clean energy 4) How San Francisco can lead 2
MyGeneration Campaign Equitable transition to 100% clean energy in CA Fully electrified economy (transportation + buildings) 3
Gas Consumption in California Gas Consumption By Sector in CA 900,000 Current Gas Consumption "Near-Zero" Transition Impact 800,000 700,000 600,000 MMcf 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Buildings Industrial Vehicles Power Plants Source: EIA Gas Consumption by End Use 2016; Sierra Club analysis using CEC Conventional Fuel Demand Forecast Mid Case
Decarbonized Fuel Not Viable Pathway Availability of Biomethane from Waste Compared with Diesel and Natural Gas Use in California Biomethane could meet 3% of CA s demand for natural gas What about syngas / Power-to-gas? Fuel source: excess solar/wind Pros: Seasonal storage Cons: High cost Inefficient - maximum theoretical roundtrip efficiency is 63% GHGs from methane leakage Safety risks Source: UCS Report Promises and Limits of Biomethane as a Transportation Fuel May 2017; 5 E3 Decarbonized Gas Report 2015.
What s building electrification? Household Gas Consumption in CA and clean electric alternatives Pools, spas, misc. 4% Stove 7% Clothes dryer 3% Electric induction stove Space heating 37% Water heater 49% Electric heat pump dryer Electric heat pump space heater Source: CA Residential Appliance Saturation Study 2010 Electric heat pump water heater 6
What s a heat pump? By transferring heat rather than creating it, heat pumps deliver hot water 3-4 times more efficiently than conventional water heaters 7
Gas responsible for ½ of CO2 in homes 5 Residential CO2 Emissions by Fuel Source Metric tons CO2/year 4 3 2 1 0 2.1 2.3 2.1 Average house in CA Gas Electricity Major policy gap to cut GHGs from gas Many policies to cut GHGs from electricity, including RPS, EE, ZNE Source: Jones C., Kammen D., Bay Area Consumption-Based GHG Emissions Inventory, Jan. 2016 8
Need policy action on gas to achieve GHG goals Million Cubic Feet 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Natural Gas Consumption in CA s Buildings 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year X X X Residential Natural Gas Consumption Commercial Natural Gas Use Total Building Natural Gas Use Target to align w/ GHG Goals Source: EIA Gas Consumption https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_cons_sum_dcu_sca_a.htm X X X 9
Electrification clean air strategy Air pollution from gas appliances: Outdoor: Gas appliances in buildings responsible for 1/4 of NOx from gas in CA Sources: Map from ALA State of the Air Report (2017); NOx data from CARB 2015 Indoor: Criteria pollutants from incomplete combustion byproducts (CO, formaldehydes, SO2, NO2, particulates) especially from gas stoves 10
Benefits of electrification Benefits of electrification Slashes GHGs, path to Zero Emissions Buildings Air quality, health, safety, resiliency Extend reach of renewables Save energy and lower bills* New jobs to retrofit buildings, install heat pumps Polluters out of politics * Depends on electricity tariffs and local conditions 11
Hurdles to building electrification Public awareness & interest Technology Costs Gas industry opposition Policy bias in favor of gas 12
Policy landscape CPUC Incentives for fuel-switching ( 3-prong test reform) San Joaquin Valley Electric water heating as energy storage resource CEC Building Energy Code (Title 24 ) Integrated Energy Policy Report SB 350 Double EE Savings by 2030 AB 758 Existing Building Energy Efficiency Action Plan CARB + Air Districts Fugitive methane emissions South Coast AQMD - Air quality impacts of gas use and electrification Need for rebates for low/zero GHG and NOx appliances Legislation AB 3232 (Friedman): Set goal to reduce GHG in building by 50% x 2030; all new buildings will be zero emissions x 2030. In Appropriations, Assembly vote by June 1 SB 1477 (Stern): Provide essential funding for zeroemissions buildings market transformation. In Appropriations AB 2195 (Chau): Quantify and report in the CA GHG inventory the emissions from leakage from natural gas imported from out of state sources 13
Cities, counties leading the way Los Angeles - plans to set electrification targets in line w/ GHG goals (60%x2035) Palo Alto/CPAU - $1500 HPWH rebates, streamline permitting, education/outreach, green building code Marin/MCE - low-income multifamily electrification pilot, contractor training, rebates Sonoma/SCP - support all-electric ZNE rebuild after fires, rebates, consumer education, outreach to contractors Sacramento/SMUD - ++ $1500 HPWH rebates San Francisco + Oakland - methane leakage research New York City, NY - binding fossil fuel caps x 2035, financing, tech support Boulder, CO - Roadmap to Renewable Living, fuel-switch target mapping, consumer education Vancouver - zero emission (new) buildings x 2030 Amsterdam - gas free homes/buildings x 2050, no new gas 14
Opportunities for SF leadership Lead Locally Set binding electrification or zero emission buildings targets Adopt reach electrification building code Lower costs to consumers - Bulk buy programs, rebates (CCA), electrification-friendly tariff (CCA) Educate and train contractors, upstream incentives Build interest among public Electrification-ready time of sale requirements Streamline permitting to support electrification Leverage Political Influence Sign onto support letters (bills, proceedings) Participate and comment in public proceedings at CEC, CPUC, CARB, Air Districts Elevate issue with other cities and local governments 15
We d love to work with you Thank you! Contact info: Rachel.golden@sierraclub.org 415-977-5647 My son s favorite book: All-Electric America 16
Extra slides 17
Heat Pumps Lower CO 2, Even with Gas at Margin Water Heater CO 2 Emissions: Heat pumps offer a pathway to zero-emissions hot water Carbon content of delivered heat (tco 2 /MMBTU) 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 Electric resistance (COP 0.96) Electric heat pump (COP 2.7) Gas, storage tank (COP 0.6) Gas, tankless condensing (COP 0.95) 0.00 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % Renewable Electricity (Long-Run Marginal) Heat pumps: 3x more efficient than conventional heaters. (COP = Coefficient of Performance; a higher # indicates higher EE) 1) Not including fugitive methane emissions, which roughly doubles GHG emissions from gas 2) With 45%-efficient combined cycle gas plant as long-run marginal resource 18 Source: NRDC