From carbonization to decarbonization? Past trends and future scenarios for China s CO 2 emissions Jan Steckel, Michael Jakob, Robert Marschinski, Gunnar Luderer IEW, June 22, 2010
Motivation Data Source: IEA 2009 2
Outline China A special case? Lessons learnt from China s carbon intensity growth Model based scenarios for China s future emissions Assessment of China s policy commitments Conclusion 3
China A special case? Mexico Brazil India South Africa Korea Indonesia China compared to other Newly Industrializing Countries 4
China A special case? GDP per capita CO 2 emissions Energy intensity Carbon intensity of energy Data Source: IEA 2009 5
Drivers of emissions growth Kaya decomposition: CO2 = Population x GDP /population x PE/GDP x CO2/PE China NIC - China s economic growth outstanding and major driver for emissions. - Acceleration from 2000 2007, while energy intensity levels could not compensate for high economic growth Data Source: IEA 2009 6
Enhancing the Kaya decomposition What are drivers of carbon intensity? What is the role of coal? Decomposing carbon intensity World Data Source: IEA 2009 7
Decomposing carbon intensity of energy China: coal has been the main driver of recent increases in the carbon intensity A similar development could be observed in the past no structural difference in recent years NIC: constant positive but compared to China lower influence of coal China NICs Data Source: IEA 2009 8
Decomposing carbon intensity - Results World China OECD NICs Data Source: IEA 2009 9
The REMIND-R Model: Basic Characteristics Leimbach et al. 2009 Intertempo ral Balance of Payment Large scale integrated assessment model Fully coupled macro-economy and energy system 11 world regions, heterogeneous capital stocks in energy sector, international trade Regionally specific fossil fuel endowments and renewable energy potentials Here: used to generate scenarios of the future development of China s energy system 10
Future scenarios for China (with REMIND-R) Primary Energy BAU 450ppm CO 2 only Investments 11
Macroeconomic effects of climate policy BAU 450ppm 12
Macroeconomic effects of climate policy Kaya Decomposition 2005-2050 13
Stabilization scenarios and carbon intensity Decomposition 2005-2050 14
Policy assessment POLICY Baseline 450ppm China - Targets Energy Intensity -37.6% in 2020-45% in 2020 40% reduction in 2020 CI of GDP -24.8% in 2020-44.8% in 2020 40-45% reduction until 2020 Renewable energy 9.2% in 2020 21% in 2020 15% of total energy by 2020 Nuclear 5 GW in 2020 5 GW in 2020 86 GW until 2020 CCS N/A 0.6% in 2020 No official target 15
Conclusion China s emissions growth has - in contrast to NICs - majorly been driven by extraordinary economic growth Energy intensity improvements have offset emissions growth in the past, but not from 2000 2007 In China coal has contributed more persistently to emissions growth than in NICs In the future, carbon intensity of energy improvements are necessary to reach climate stabilization while the potential to additional energy intensity improvements beyond BAU seems to be limited Current Chinese policy pledges seem to be in line with a ReMIND-R 450 ppm policy scenario 16
Thank you! jan.steckel@pik-potsdam.de http://www.pik-potsdam.de/members/steckel
Backup slides
Drivers of emissions growth 19
The REMIND-R Model: Energy as Production Factor 20
The REMIND-R Model: Regions Industrialized importers of fossil fuels USA EUR: Europe JAP: Japan Main exporters of fossil fuels RUS: Russia MEA: Middle East and Northern Africa ROW (mainly Canada, Australia, South Africa, Eastern Europe) ROW USA LAM EUR MEA AFR ROW RUS CHN JAP IND OAS ROW Transition and developing economies IND: India CHN: China LAM: Latin America OAS: Other Asia AFR: Africa Leimbach et al. (2009) 21 21
The REMIND-R Model: Energy System 22
23 Enhancing the Kaya decomposition Independent from the decomposition method a complete Kaya decomposition can be written as with the residual R depending on the method (i.e. LMDI, Laspeyres Index ) Example: Laspeyres i i f i R CO = 2 e) a p 4 1 ) p a e a e p e a p ( 3 1 ) a p e e p a e a p ( 2 1 ) e a (p R 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 k + + + + + + + =
Reasons for the increase of carbon intensity? Carbon intensity k t can be expressed as k t' = k t E E t t' + j k jt' E jt' k E t' with E being energy, j specific energy carriers. For k t' = k t E t E t' = E t' E ( ΔE ) j t' j ( ΔE ) j + j jt j E jt, we derive k jt' E jt' k E t' jt E jt (1) (2) Δk = 1 E t' ( k jt' E jt' k jt E jt ΔE jkt ) j (3) 24