Energiewende Germany s energy system and the status of the energy transition Dr Falk Bömeke, LL.M. Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 25 June 2018 18-06-27 Referent 1
Source: Edelman.ergo 2016 The Energiewende combines security of supply, cost-effectiveness and environmental protection Environmentally sound Affordable and cost-effective Secure and reliable 6/27/2018 2
Source: BMWi Five reasons for the Energiewende Phase-out of nuclear power generation Reduce dependency on energy imports Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful New technologies as additional source of growth and employment 6/27/2018 3
Nov. 2003 May 2005 Aug. 2011 Jun. 2015 Source: BMWi 2018, Ecofys 2018 Germany is gradually phasing out nuclear power up to 2022 Nuclear power plants in Germany 20 GW 06/2015 Grafenrheinfeld (1345 MW) 12/2017 Gundremmingen B (1284 MW) 12/2019 Philippsburg 2 (1402 MW) 12/2021 Gundremmingen C (1288 MW), Grohnde (1360 MW), Brokdorf (1410 MW) 12/2022 Isar 2 (1410 MW), Emsland (1329 MW), Neckarwestheim 2 (1365 MW) 10 already retired scheduled for retirement 2005 2010 2015 2018 2020 Fukushima Nuclear Accident 6/27/2018 4
Source: BMWi Five reasons for the Energiewende Phase-out of nuclear power generation Reduce dependency on energy imports Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful New technologies as additional source of growth and employment 6/27/2018 5
% of total primary energy supply % of total final energy consumption (RES target) Source: Ecofys 2017 based on AGEB 2012, AGEB 2014 Renewables reduce dependence on energy imports 100 100 renewables (RES) 90 80 domestic production 90 80 lignite hard coal 70 70 gas 60 60 oil 50 50 other 40 30 20 10 Dependence on imports 60% RES target (final energy) 40 30 20 10 oil imports gas imports hard coal imports nuclear - 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0 RES target (final energy, right axis) 6/27/2018 6
Source: BMWi Five reasons for the Energiewende Phase-out of nuclear power generation Reduce dependency on energy imports Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful New technologies as additional source of growth and employment 6/27/2018 7
USA & Canada Australia & South Pacific Germany EU28 (excl. Germany) Rest of Europe** Russia China Middle East Former Soviet Republics* Latin America + Caribbean Asia Northern Africa Brazil India Sub-Saharan Africa 4.9% 1.1% 0.4% 6.1% 0.4% 2.0% 18.8% 4.7% 2.0% 5.9% 16.6% 3.0% 2.8% 17.9% 12.9% Tonnes of CO 2 per capita Source: Ecofys 2017, data from EDGAR (2016) and World Bank (2016) Per capita carbon emissions of some western economies are still twice as high as those of China 16 12 8 4 Global average: 4.9 t CO 2 per capita 0 Percentage of global population *excluding Russia and EU members **Rest of Europa includes IS, NO, CH and the Balkans 6/27/2018 8
Index 1990=100 Source: Ecofys 2017 based on UBA 2017, World Bank 2017, AG Energiebilanzen 2017 Efficiency measures allow clean growth by decoupling economic development from energy consumption 350 300 250 200 150 100 status 2016 163,4 146,6 91,0 * final energy productivity final energy productivity target GDP primary energy demand primary energy demand target GHG emissions 50 72,6 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GHG emissions target * status 2015 National targets: +2.1% final energy productivity p.a. 2020/2050: 20/50% reduction vs. 2008 2050: 80-95% reduction vs. 1990 6/27/2018 9
Source: UBA 2017 MtCO 2 eq Germany has made significant progress. But more action needed to achieve the emission reduction targets 1400 Kyoto target (1st com period) 1200 other emissions 1000 800 600 households transportation commerce, trade, services industry 400 200 0 agriculture energy industry * preliminary data 6/27/2018 10
Source: BMWi Five reasons for the Energiewende Phase-out of nuclear power generation Reduce dependency on energy imports Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful New technologies as additional source of growth and employment 6/27/2018 11
Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2016, UBA 2018, AGEB 2018 The Energiewende is Germany s long-term energy and climate strategy Achieved 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Climate % greenhouse gas reduction (vs. 1990) 27.6% (2016) -40-55 -70-8080 to to -9595 Renewable Energy % gross electricity consumption % gross final energy consumption 36.2% 36% 14.8% (2016) 50 55 to 60 65 35 40 to 45 65 18 18 30 45 45 30 80 80 60 60 Primary energy consumption (vs. 2008) -6.0% -6% -20-20 -50-50 Energy Efficiency Final energy productivity (vs. 2008) Primary energy demand in buildings (vs. 2008) 1.1% p.a. (2016) -15.9% (2015) 4,380 PJ (2008) +2.1% p.a. (2008-2050). -80-80 Final energy consumption in transport (vs. 2005) +1.3% (2015) -10-15 to -20-40 -10-15 to -20 6/27/2018 12
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 gross electricity consumption in TWh Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2018, AGEB 2018, UBA 2018 Germany s renewables share of total power use reached a record of 36% 700 600 Electricity consumption in 2017 500 400 300 200 100 0 fossil fuels; 63,8% RES; 36,2% gas: 12% wind; 17,7% biomass, geothermal*; 8,6% solar; 6,6% hydro; 3,3% *Share of geothermal (0,03%) RES: renewable energy sources renewables fossil fuels 6/27/2018 13
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Gross electricity production in TWh Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BMWi 2018 Renewables have become Germany s No. 1 source of electricity 700,0 600,0 654,8 600,2 Electricity mix in 2017 (654.8 TWh in total) [CELLREF] [CELLREF] 500,0 [CELLREF] 400,0 300,0 [CELLREF] RES: 33.3% [CELLREF] [CELLREF] 200,0 [CELLREF] [CELLREF] 100,0 0,0 [CELLREF] [CELLREF] hard coal lignite natural gas mineral oil others nuclear renewables electricity consumption 6/27/2018 14
Average duration of electricity supply failures in 2014 [minutes/year] Source: Ecofys 2017 based on VDE 2015, CEER 2015; EIA 2014; Canadian Electricity Association 2014; Data based on SAIDI index, excluding exceptional events Data from 2013 and 2014 according to availability Germany s security of electricity supply remains one of the highest worldwide 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 354 114 42 55 68 12 Germany Italy UK France USA Canada 6/27/2018 15
Source: Ecofys 2018 based on Eurostat 2017, World Energy Council 2014, German Chambers of Commerce Abroad Average electricity bill in Germany is comparable to those of other industrialised countries Consumption (kwh) Price ( ct/kwh) Electricity bill ( ) US 12305 13 1564 Denmark 3780 30 1127 Japan 5275 21 1095 Germany 3360 31 1035 Canada 11135 9 1019 France 5290 17 907 Spain 3900 21 814 UK 3910 20 769 Italy 2640 22 588-20000 3000 8000 13000 0 20 40 0 1000 2000 Data from 2014-2017 6/27/2018 16
Source: BMWi Five reasons for the Energiewende Phase-out of nuclear power generation Reduce dependency on energy imports Reduce carbon emissions and reach climate protection targets Energy policy that is both sustainable and economically successful New technologies as additional source of growth and employment 6/27/2018 17
Source: Edelman.ergo 2016 The energy transition is having positive effects at various levels of the economy 6/27/2018 18
Source: IRENA 2018 The renewable energy sector has created over 10 million jobs worldwide in 2017 6/27/2018 19
Source: Ecofys 2018 based on BNetzA 2018, PV Magazine, Bloomberg Global trend: Auction results highlight rapidly declining costs for renewables USA 2.7 Mexico 1.9 1.8 The Netherlands* 6.0 7.4 UK* Germany* 8.5 4.2 4.2 0 Morocco 2.5 Denmark* 1.9 5.5 Jordan 6.0 UAE 2.4 Saudi Arabia 4.1 India 3.8 3.8 Australia Peru 4.8 3.7 Chile 4.5 Brazil 3.0 Zambia 6.0 2.3 South Africa 6.4 4.7 2.1 Wind onshore Wind offshore Solar Lowest awarded bids All prices in US ct/kwh at 1.1 USD/EUR * Countries with a feed-in premium (instead of a feed-in tariff / PPA)
Source: University of Stuttgart, University of Münster, Fraunhofer ISI and ISE 2016 The Energiewende as a whole enjoys relatively large support within the German population Attitudes towards the Energiewende in % We need a resolute switch to renewable energy 5 13 23 27 33 disagree mostly disagree I am convinced that the energy transition will lead to shortages in the supply of electricity 20 26 29 19 6 undecided mostly agree Electricity supply from renewables is, in the long term, more affordable than from other sources 5 16 26 31 23 agree Germany's competitiveness in the world will decline due to the energy transition 22 27 25 19 7 The energy transition will allow citizens to produce their own energy and so become more independent 7 13 31 0 20 40 60 80 100 30 20 6/27/2018 21
Thank you for your attention Contact details Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie Referat IIA1 Scharnhorststr. 34-37 10115 Berlin, Germany Dr. Falk R. Bömeke, LL.M. falk.boemeke@bmwi.bund.de www.bmwi.de 18-06-27 Referent 22