Renewable Energy: Changing Perspectives Frank Wouters 3 October 2013 IRENA 2013 1
Content Introduction Energy transformation Impact on stakeholders IRENA 2013 2
Introduction: IRENA Mandate: To promote the widespread and sustainable use of renewable energy worldwide Objective: To serve as centre of excellence, advisory resource, and network hub for renewable energy Scope: All renewable energy sources produced in a sustainable manner: Bioenergy Geothermal Hydropower Ocean Solar Wind Energy Energy Energy Energy IRENA 2013 3
Key Facts about IRENA Formally established in 2011 Based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates First global intergovernmental organisation headquartered in the Middle East 118 Members (Sep 2013) 43 countries in the process of becoming Members IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre (IITC) Bonn, Germany Permanent Observer to the United Nations Approx. 120 staff IRENA 2013 4
Energy Transformation: PV
Predictions for Solar in 2010 1995 - EPIA The official installed target scenario for 2010 [..] represents a global forecast of 11.3 GW of which only 1.2 GW are outside the USA, Japan and Europe. Solar Electricity in 2010, Installed Target Scenarios by EPIA published in 1995. 1998 - IEA By 2010, installed solar power capacity would be 500 MW resulting in power generation of 0.7 TWh. IEA World Energy Outlook, published in 1998 2007 Photon Consulting Solar cell/module manufacturing to rapidly increase from 4 GW in 2007 to 13.35GW in 2010. Solar Annual 2007, Micheal Rogol, Photon Consulting 6
Solar PV Installed Capacity in GWs Reality 100 90 80 At the end of 2010, the world s PV cumulative installed capacity was 40 GW. 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 7
Global Distribution 35000 Cumulative installed photovoltaic (PV) Power [MW] Germany 30000 25000 20000 Future Outlook China Italy 15000 10000 Japan US Spain 5000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2013 India
9 PV Markets Explode
IRENA Costing Alliance Data on the cost and performance of renewable energy technologies Reduces uncertainty on current costs and trends Boosts IRENA engagement with the private sector Informs IRENA research and analyses on costs IRENA 2013 10
Impact on incumbents 11
Euro Impact on incumbents 38.00 36.00 34.00 RWE Share Price Development Monopolies Commission Report (5 Sept 2013) 32.00 30.00 28.00 26.00 24.00 22.00 20.00 9/26/2012 12/26/2012 3/26/2013 6/26/2013 12
Negative Network Effect 13
Changing Energy Geopolitics We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years. We have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas and the amount of renewable energy we generate from sources like wind and solar President Obama at the State of the Union Address, 2013 We are going to reduce carbon pollution by using more clean energy. Over the past four years, we've doubled the electricity that we generate from zero-carbon wind and solar power President Obama at Georgetown University Washington D.C., June 25 th 2013 SOURCE: AP/Evan Vucci The Secretary of Defense delayed the deployment of aircraft carriers USS Harry S. Truman and USS Gettysburg. The deployment was originally scheduled for Feb 8th 2013. This leaves the carrier John C. Stennis and its carrier strike group as the only carrier force operating in the Persian Gulf region. Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group Public Affairs 14
China China's first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning departs. In a bid to flex its military might amidst various territorial disputes, China will be building more aircraft carriers. The next aircraft carriers we need will be larger and carry more fighters. Rear Admiral Song Xue, Chinese Navy China is expected to overtake Germany to become the world's largest solar power. The nation's installed photovoltaic power capacity as of Dec 31st 2012 was 6.5 million kilowatts, according to the China Electricity Council. China will add at least 10 million kw of capacity every year from 2013 to 2015 Says Zhang Xiaoqiang, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, on September 12, 2013 at the Summer Davos Forum. Source: China Daily, 2013-06-11
5 Years From Now. Solar plug parity has been reached in most countries, leading to democratization of energy Electricity bills could be reduced by 20-30%, and the payback time would be 5-6 years for commercial solar systems and 10-11 years for residential systems. Up to 14-18% demand destruction for utilities by self-generated solar power. In the wealthy zip codes battery storage has become economical and more and more people choose to go standalone. Incumbent Utilities Utilities in wealthy zip code areas face serious revenue erosion. Some utilities have successfully changed business model, used their client base, have diversified into services and have become solar energy system integrators. Access PV has become the mainstream energy source for rural electrification Market Size? 16
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