Energy Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region Towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction in 2030 Copenhagen, 20 October 2008 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff Ea Energy Analyses Ea Energianalyse
Contents of presentation Characteristics of the Baltic Sea Region Two scenarios for the Baltic Sea Region in 2030 towards 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction Opportunities for cooperation some concrete ideas Ea Energianalyse
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BALTIC SEA REGION Ea Energianalyse
*including Germany, excl. Russisa Ea Energianalyse
New dem. Old dem. *including Germany, excl. Russisa Ea Energianalyse
CO2-emissions (Gt) *including Germany, excl. Russisa Ea Energianalyse
Infrastructure Ea Energianalyse
GAS OIL Hydro Hydro Nuclear Bio Nuclear Bio Hydro Oilshale Gas Coal Hydro Nuclear Coal Gas Wind Hydro, Gas Nuclear GAS OIL Coal Nuclear Wind Coal
PJ/year Oil and gas production 9000 8000 7000 Oil Natural gas Oil production Norway Natural gas Norway 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 * Russia not included Ea Energianalyse
Gross energy consumption PJ 35.000 30.000 25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 - Norway Denmark Sweden Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Germany Russia Ea Energianalyse
PJ/year 80.000 70.000 60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 - Gross energy consumption EU 27-2005 Baltic - 2005 Renewable Nuclear Natural gas Oil Coal Ea Energianalyse
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Electricity generation by source Baltic countries EU 27 Hydro 25% Wind 4% Coal 29% Hydro 12% Wind 3% Coal 22% Oil 2% Oil 4% Natural Gas 11% Nuclear 35% Natural Gas 24% Nuclear 29% Ea Energianalyse
Source: Eurostat
Bioenergy 16% EU 27 Potential as share of gross energy demand Baltic 31% Calculation based on stats from DG TREN and EEA
Bioenergy resources PJ 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 - Source: European Environment Agency (2006): How much bioenergy can Europe produce without harming the environment?
Wind energy resource Full Load Hours/Year
SCENARIOS FOR THE BALTIC SEA REGION 50% oil reduction 50% CO2 emissions reduction in 2030 Ea Energianalyse
Developing scenarios Economic growth Fuel prices Saving potentials BSR Scenario RESULTS Infrastructure Technology Development Renewable resources
Two scenarios (and a reference) Small-tech Energy savings District heating - CHP Biomass Wind, wave, solar Big-tech Carbon Capture & Storage Nuclear power Biomass Improved fuel economy Electric vehicles Modal-change ICT Improved fuel economy Electric vehicles Biofuels or perhaps a combination
Key decision makers Energy manufacturing industry Big power producers Farmers Energy consumers Wind/solar industry Grid companies Politicians (EU, regional, national) Car industry Local politicians and planning authorities Bio-fuel refineries District heating companies
Nuclear power Today 15 GW Big-tech 24 GW No phaseout in Sweden and Germany. New nuclear in Poland, Lithuania and 6 th reactor in Finland Small-tech 9 GW Phaseout in Germany, 50 % phaseout in Sweden No nuclear in Lithuania
Carbon Capture and Storage Key measure in Big-tech 30 GW power capacity equipped with CCS supplying 22 % of overall electricity demand all large thermal power plants commissioned beyond 2020 with CCS. Coal power plants commissioned in the period 2010-2020 are prepared for CCS Assuming 90 % cleaning eff. 10 %-point electric efficiency loss
Small-tech calls for smart grids and ICT
Growth and demand 2.6 % GDP growth annually in both scenarios app. 90 % over 25 years Final energy demand Same energy services but with higher efficiency Fuel economy cars Energy savings Savings Space heating: 15 % Electricity and proces energy: 20 % 2030
Potential for CHP based district heating PJ / year 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Final energy demand today Suitable for district systems Electricity system losses today District heating in Small - tech
Transport 2005 2030 Small-tech 2030 Big-tech Fuel economy 160 g CO 2 /km 100 g CO 2 /km 100 g CO 2 /km Electric vehicles 25% 25% Biofuels 5% 15% ICT Modal change 3 % of transport work shifted 9 % of transport work shifted
Improvements in fuel economy g/km 200 180 160 140 Average sold car in EU 120 100 80 60 40 20 10per cent electric cars 10per cent -in plug hybrid cars 5per biofuel cent cars Average car in EU27 scenarios 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Today s efficiency potential
Passenger transport 1.8 % growth p.a.
Results
Results
Results PJ 7000 6000 85 % of oil/gas production from Norway Security of supply Production in 2005 Production potential 2030 Consumption Big-tech 5000 Consumption Small-tech 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Oil Natural gas Coal Solid biomass
Security of supply in EU27, including production from Norway PJ 25000 20000 15000 Security of supply Production in 2005 Production potential 2030 Consumption Big-tech Consumption Small-tech 10000 5000 0 Oil Natural gas Coal Solid biomass Ea Energianalyse
Critical Assumptions Critical assumptions Small-tech scenario - Energy saving potentials are harvested (many barriers that are not only economic) - Local planning effort to expand district heating and cooling systems (to enjoy benefits of combined heat power) - Off-shore wind grid infrastructure Big-tech scenario - Dependent on the commercialization of carbon capture and storage technology - Public support for more nuclear power - Fossil fuels and uranium are accessible at reasonable prices. Both - Intelligent energy systems and markets - The increased production of biomass for energy conversion. - The fuel economy of new cars is improved considerably. - That electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids are commercialized Ea Energianalyse
Development of nominal fuel prices from 1960 to 2006 (annual averages) Coal Oil Gas Ea Energianalyse
OPPORTUNITIES FOR COOPERATION SOME CONCRETE IDEAS Ea Energianalyse
Opportunities for cooperation Energy infrastructure Including integration of large amount of wind Energy markets Electricity and gas Demonstration of CCS Biomass technologies Sustainable cities and metropolises District heating and CHP Energy savings Transport Cooperation on energy efficient appliances and buildings Ea Energianalyse
Scandinavia Baltic countries Coordination of off-shore wind (hydro >< wind) Integrated electricity grids Integrated electricity markets Source: Airtricity Ea Energianalyse
Next steps Data for Russia Economic consequences Detailed model analyses Gas and electricity systems benefits of interconnectors Stakeholder involvement proces of dioalog Ea Energianalyse
Process of dialogue Politicians Answers Utilities Energy planners Project developers Researchers Questions Others Ea Energianalyse