Etanol - störst idag, hur stort om 20 år?
8,5 Fundamental challenge One planet Total interdependence Natural laws Non negotiable 6,8 6,0 2,5 1,5 1,0 0,5 200 000 BC
Most serious environmental challenges Destruction of natural environments for animals and plants Extreme over exploitation of marine resources Biodiversity loss Soil erosion Net loss of fertile farmland Fresh water supply Toxic chemicals in water, soil and air Our primary sources of energy are not sustainable Accumulation of atmospheric gases Each 8 is individually a time bomb who will explode within 50 years.
New oil discovery vs. Consumption
World oil consumption 88 000 000 barrels per day Iraq can supply 3 years and a month
Global development of Light-duty Vehicles Source: WBCSD, 2004a.
TATA Nano US$ 3000
End of cheap oil
Transport sector will need special attention
There is another problem
Global average temperature is increasing Source: IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
End of oil
Future of what? and what is the future for transports?
Carbon emissions per capita (ton carb bon per capita) Em missions 6.00 5.00 4.00 300 3.00 2.00 1.00 - Source: Chalmers 2004-10-02/LN USA Max 2 billion ton C/yr 8 billion people 250 Kg C/capita Canada, Australia, New Zealand Russia Industrial world Japan OECD Europe Other EIT Middle East World Average China Latin America Other Asia Developing world Africa India 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Population (million)
How much fossil fuel per capita? 250 Kg of Carbon/Capita/year 850 Kg of CO 2 Assuming 35% of CO 2 emissions from transports Leaves es 300 Kg of CO 2 from transports/capita/year ts/cap ta/yea 50% is commercial => 150 Kg CO 2 for private use 150 Kg of CO 2 = 60 litres of Gasoline/year 54 litres of Diesel/year 1 liter of fossil fuel per person per week
What to focus on to reduce unsustainable transports? Oil Dependency & Fossil CO 2 1. Curb the growth of transports, decoupling 2. Increase energy efficiency, dramatically 3. Large systems shift towards renewable fuels
Commercially available fuels
BioFuels are very controversial Can be done Wrong! Can be done Right Difference between BioFuels & BioFuels Difference between Operators & Operators
Biofuels for Transport: Global Potential and Implications for Energy and Agriculture. www.worldwatch.org
World ethanol production
Food vs fuel Not today, but maybe in the future
Ethanol from cellulose Combined heat & power Biorefinery
= 1.4 billion m3 =12 billion barrels =200/yr days for world transports McKinsey 2007
Pilot plant
Energy balance from Ethanol BioRefinery Ethanol Wood Ethanol factory/ CHP Solid biofuels Energy ouput 75-80 % Electricity/ heat Biogas Process energy & losses Process energy & losses 20-25 %
CE Business case Integration with 1 st generation ethanol producer 1 st generation ethanol plant Steam power Biomass Cellulosic ethanol Biogas Lignin fuel Ethanol Financial forecast CE-plant (EURm) Income statement 2013 2014 x 2015 2016 2017 2018 Volume Ethanol (thousand m3) 52 200 60 000 60 000 60 000 60 000 60 000 Income from Ethanol 34,4 39,6 39,6 39,6 39,6 39,6 Income from Lignin 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Income from Biogas 8,7 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 10,0 Total sales 43,2 49,6 49,6 49,6 49,6 49,6 Raw material (straw, corn-cob,etc) -11,1-12,8-12,8-12,8-12,8-12,8 Gross profit 32,1 36,8 36,8 36,8 36,8 36,8 Variable costs -9,2-10,6-10,6-10,6-10,6-10,6 Fixed costs -2,2-2,6-3,0-3,8-4,5-4,5 EBITDA 20,6 23,6 23,2 22,4 21,7 21,7 EBITDA margin 48% 48% 47% 45% 44% 44%
Feedstock Litre ethanol per ha/year Corn 2.500 + stover +1.200 3.700 Wheat 1.800 + straw +1.100 2.900 Sugarcane 8.300 + bagasse +4.100 12.400
Agro biofuels roadmap More functioning market Liquidity! Increase: yield per ha energy content per unit fuel usable feedstocks Suger platform
Ethanol i 20 years? Liquitity in the market Substantially larger volumes than today Still the biggest biofuel by volume Lignocellulose well developed feedstock Drop-in fuels is beginning to make a difference Mainly jetfuel
SWEDEN 2030 5 Million cars 1600 litre/year 8.000.000 m3 ethanol /year Grain 4.000.000 ha Sugarcane 1.000.000 ha Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 650.000 ha + Current hybrides 450.000000 ha + Plug-in hybrides 200.000 ha
The world 2050 1,5 Billion cars 1,6 m3/year 2400 Million m3 ethanol/year Grain (northern Europe) 2000l/ha 1200.Mha Sugarcane 8000l/ha 300.Mha + Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 12000l/ha 200.Mha + Todays hybrids 0,7l/10km 140.Mha + Plug-in hybrids 0,3l/10km 60.Mha