The Outlook for Energy A View to 23 Flexible Packaging Association March 1 th, 26 Jesse Tyson President, ExxonMobil Inter-America Inc. This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil s latest report on Form 1-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. This "ExxonMobil presentation expressly includes disclaims forward-looking liability statements. for any loss, Actual damage, future or injury conditions directly (including or indirectly economic suffered conditions, or incurred energy as a demand, result of or and related energy to supply) anyone could using differ or relying materially on any due of to the changes information in technology, in this document. the development The terms, of we, new supply our or sources, "ExxonMobil" political are events, used for demographic convenience, changes, and may and include other factors any one discussed or more of herein Exxon Mobil (and Corporation, in Item 1 or of any ExxonMobil s affiliate(s) latest it directly report on indirectly Form 1-K. stewards. This material The ExxonMobil is not to Emblem be reproduced and the without Interlocking the permission X Device of are Exxon trademarks Mobil Corporation. of Exxon Mobil Corporation.". "
Energy Outlook Basis MBDOE 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Energy Supply/Demand Other Coal Gas Oil 198 25 23 Energy Outlook Buildup Energy demand by countries and end use sectors Total energy growth linked to economic drivers Incorporates efficiency improvements Fuel shares consider trends, economics, supply Oil & Gas supply outlook Ultimate recoverable resources estimated Production profiles modeled for key countries Outlook based on key assumptions Growing population, improving living standards Ongoing improvement in efficiency Timely and adequate energy supplies Technology advances for supply and demand
Global Population - 8% in Developing Areas.6 Europe.3 Russia/Caspian.4 North America.2 Middle East 3.2 Asia Pacific.2 Asia Pacific 2 Non-OECD.4 Latin America.8 Africa OECD 6. B World Source: World Bank
Global Population - 23.8%.5 North America.9% per year 1.1%.1%.6 Europe.3 Middle East 1.7%.3 Russia/Caspian 1.7% -.2%.9% 4.2 Asia Pacific.%.2 Asia Pacific 2 23 Non-OECD.6 Latin America 1.3 Africa 6. B 8. B World OECD Source: World Bank
Global GDP - 2% in Developing Areas $11.1 North America $8.9 Europe $.4 Russia/Caspian $.6 $2.7 Middle East Asia Pacific $5.7 Asia Pacific $1.5 Latin America $.6 Africa Non-OECD 2 OECD $31.5 T ($2) World
Global GDP - 23 2.6% 2.% $24.2 North America $16.2 Europe 2.8% $1.4 Middle East 4.% $1.2 Russia/Caspian 5.4% $13.3 Asia Pacific 1.6% $9.2 Asia Pacific 2.7% per year Non-OECD 2.9% $3.5 Latin America 3.4% $1.6 Africa 2 23 OECD $31.5 $7.6 T ($2) World
Energy Use - 23.6%.8% 1.3% 3.2% 68 North America 1.6% per year 2.2% 47 Europe 19 Middle East 2.% 27 Russia/Caspian 1.9% 113 Asia Pacific.9% 23 Asia Pacific Non-OECD 18 Latin America 19 Africa 2 23 OECD 25 334 MBDOE World
Energy Intensity - Declining Trend Accelerates Barrels of Oil Equivalent per $K GDP 1 Average Growth / Yr. 198-2 8-1.2% 6 Non-OECD 2-23 -1.8% 4 2-1.4% OECD -1.5% 198 199 2 21 22 23
Energy Demand Grows MBDOE 35 3 Energy by Use Average Growth / Yr. 2-23 1.6% 25 1.3% 2 15 1 5 Heat/Other * Chemicals Transport Electricity 1.7% 1.7% 2.% 198 199 2 21 22 23 * Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture
Energy Demand Grows MBDOE 35 Energy by Use Average Growth / Yr. 2-23 MBDOE 35 Energy by Type 3 1.6% 3 1.6% 25 1.3% 25 1.6% 2 15 1 5 Heat/Other * Chemicals Transport Electricity 1.7% 1.7% 2.% 198 199 2 21 22 23 2 15 1 5 Other Coal Gas Oil 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 198 199 2 21 22 23 * Heat/Other includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Agriculture
Oil and Gas Remain Predominant MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE 35 Average Growth / Yr. 8 4 2-23 3 Total Energy Other Energy Wind & Solar 1.6% 25 2 15 1 5 Other Coal Gas Oil 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.4% 198 25 23 6 4 2 Wind & Solar Biomass, MSW Hydro Nuclear 11.1% 1.3% 1.9% 198 25 23 3 2 1 12.4% Wind 1.4% 9.6% Solar 198 25 23
Oil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport Demand MBD OECD MBD Non-OECD 7 6 Average Growth / Yr. 2-23.3% 7 6 2.5% 5 4 3 Heat/Other Chemicals.1%.5% 5 4 3 1.9% 3.4% 2 1 Transport Light Duty Vehicles.6% 2 1 3.4% Electricity -2.1% 198 25 23.6% 198 25 23
Vehicle Fleet Light Duty Fleet Million 5 North America Million 5 Europe Million 5 Asia Pacific 4 Average Growth / Yr. 2-23 4 4 4.7% 3 Hybrid 1.2% 3.9% 3 Diesel 2 2 2 1 Gasoline 1 1 2 21 22 23 2 21 22 23 2 21 22 23
Vehicle Fuels Light Duty Fuels MBDOE 12 North America Average Growth / Yr. 2-23.1% MBDOE 12 Europe MBDOE 12 Asia Pacific 1 Diesel 2.6% 1 1 3.7% 8 8 8 2.4% 3.4% 6 6 6 4 2 Gasoline.% 4 2 -.5% 1.8% 4 2 CNG/LPG 3.8% 2 21 22 23-1.6% 2 21 22 23 2 21 22 23
Conventional Oil Resources - 25 Conventional* Crude and Condensate (TBO).4.2.1 Europe 1. Russia/Caspian 3.2 TBO North America 2.2 Remaining.2 Latin America.3 Africa Middle East.1 Asia Pacific World Produced YE 24 * Excludes frontier resources oil sands, extra heavy oil, shale oil
Worldwide Liquids Production MBD 12 1 8 Liquids Demand ~3 ~37 OPEC Crude ~47 6 4 ~28 Biofuels Other NGL s OPEC Condensate Oil Sands 2 Non-OPEC Crude + Condensate 198 199 2 21 22 23
Technology Essential to Meet Supply Challenges Harsh Environments Reservoir Imaging Extended Reach Drilling 6 miles Production Rate (KBD) 15 1 5 Enhanced Oil Recovery Actual Production Means Field, Texas 1982 199 1995 23 CO 2 28% 32% 35% flood Recovery 4% 12 Cumulative Production (MBO) 26
Gas Demand - Regional Split 8 North America 8 Europe BCFD Average Growth / Yr. BCFD BCFD 1 2-23 1 1.5% 1.5% 8 Asia Pacific 3.6% MBDOE 16 14 12 6.2% 6 1.1% 6 3.6% 1 8 4 Heat/Other 4 4 2.4% 6 2 Chemicals Electricity 1.3% 198 25 23 2 1.1% 2.4% 198 25 23 2 3.7% 198 25 23 4 2
Growing Reliance on Gas Imports BCFD 1 8 LNG 6 Long Pipelines 4 Local Production 2 2 23 North America Europe Asia Pacific
Coal Demand - Regional Split North America Europe MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE 6 6 6 Asia Pacific 5 5 5 3.1% 4 4 4 3 3 3 1.7% 2 Average Growth / Yr. 2-23.4% 2 2 1 Heat/Other -.6% Electricity.5% 198 25 23 1.1%.%.1% 198 25 23 1 3.9% 198 25 23
Power Generation - Regional Split North America Europe Asia Pacific MBDOE MBDOE MBDOE 6 6 6 5 5 5 3.6% 4 3 4 Average Growth / Yr. 2-23.8% 3 4 3 2.7% 3.7% 2 1 Other * Nuclear Gas Coal Oil Hydro 1.1% 1.3%.5% 198 25 23 2 1 1.%.7% 2.4%.1% 198 25 23 2 1 3.9% 198 25 23 * Other includes Biomass, Wind and Solar
CO 2 Growth - Primarily Non-OECD Billion Tonnes CO 2 4 Average Growth / Yr. 2-23 1.7% 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Non-OECD OECD 2.7%.5% Growth 2-23 198 199 2 21 22 23 Area
Technology Critical to Efficiency Improvements Vehicle Advancements Combustion Fuels
The Outlook for Energy to 23 MBDOE 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Energy by Type Other Coal Gas Oil 198 25 23 Energy demand will increase 5% by 23 Driven by economic progress & population growth 8% of energy demand growth in non-oecd Energy efficiency trends to accelerate Oil, gas and coal remain predominant Oil resources adequate to sustain growth Gas market increasingly global Coal growth linked to non-oecd economic gains Technology critical to meeting energy challenges
Gasoline Prices: Market Fundamentals
U.S. Sources of Crude Oil 1% 34% 1% Rest of World 14% Mexico Domestic Production Source: EIA, August 25 Canada 31% OPEC
World Oil Production 24 ExxonMobil 3% OPEC 4% Rest of the World 57% 83.1 MBD Source: IEA, EM Financial Reports
Price per Gallon $2.5 $2. Gasoline* $1.5 Crude Oil* $1. $.5 $. 2 21 22 23 24 25 * Prices through August 17th Source: Oil and Gas Journal
U.S. Refinery Output 35 3 Gasoline production 14 12 25 1 2 15 8 6 Billion Gallons 1 Number of refineries 4 5 2 Source: API 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1997 2 22 24
U.S. Light Product Supply & Demand MBD 2 18 16 EM View of Demand to 23 14 Demand 12 1 8 6 Domestic Production 4 2 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 22 225 23 Source: Purvin & Gertz
Market Volatility Market Volatility US Gulf Coast Pipeline - UR Spot Price Comparison 65 45 25 5 (15) (35) (55) Jan-4 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-9 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Cents Per Gallon Jan-5 Hurricane Katrina Gulf War 9/11 Difference Current Day vs Prior Day
Return on Investment 2 Return on Investment (net income / net investment in place) 15 percent 1 5-5 1977 1978 1979 198 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 Refining & Marketing 25 Year Avg. Return: 5.9% S&P Industrials 25 Year Avg. Return: 11.6% Source: US Dept. of Energy, Performance Profiles of Major Energy Producers
Price Increase of Consumer Goods Food All Items Gasoline Housing Vehicle Maintenance and Repair Rent of Primary Residence Public Transportation Services Fruits and Vegetables Educational Books & Supplies Hospital and Related Services Tobacco and Smoking Products Change in Price from 1982-84 to 25 1 2 3 4 5 % Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (July, 25)
Earnings of Major Industries 2nd Quarter of 25 Banks Pharmaceuticals Software & Services Semiconductors Diversified financials Household & personal products Consumer services Insurance Telecommunication services Food, beverage & tobacco Real estate Health care Materials All U.S. Industry Oil & natural gas Capital goods Technology hardware Consumer durables & apparel Commercial services Utilities 6.2 5.7 8.3 8.3 7.9 7.7 7.5 7.2 6.6 12.2 11.3 1.9 1.7 9.6 9.4 8.9 14.6 17 19.6 18.6 Media Retailing Transportation Automobiles 2.2 1.1 4.6 4.2 Cents per dollar of sales Sources: Based on company findings with the federal government as reported by Business Week and the Oil Daily
Gasoline and Prices Gasoline price closely linked to crude oil price Global demand for crude has significantly increased Last three years demand over twice the 15 year average Developing Asia is primary driver of growth Global spare crude capacity has tightened with demand growth U.S. sources of crude oil diverse Over 8% comes from outside the Middle East Taxes add over 5 per gallon of gasoline in some states Gasoline price increase over last 2 years less than many consumer items Profit component comparable to other industries
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