How much more renewable energy should we aim for? Philip Lloyd Professor Energy Institute, CPUT Cape Town, South Africa How much more renewable energy should we aim for?
Topics The supply constraint/ the natural demand The benefits of renewable energy The drawbacks to renewable energy International experience South African plans And so - - -
M e g a w a tt In s ta ll Supply and demand I The supply problem was long forecast 4 0, 0 0 0 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 3 5, 0 0 0 M A J U B A P A LM IE T 3 0, 0 0 0 K E N D A L M A T IM B A 2 5, 0 0 0 LE T H A B O 2 0, 0 0 0 T U T U K A K O E B E R G 1 5, 0 0 0 D R A K E N S B E R G C A H O R A B A S S A D U H V A 1 0, 0 0 0 5, 0 0 0 0 W ILG E V E R E E N IN G IN G VAAL U M G E N I C O LE N S O K LIP C O N G E LLO S O U T H C O A S T C E N T R A L W E S T B A N K S A LT R IV E R H E X R IV E R B R A K P A N R O S H E R V ILLE G R O O T V LE I IN G A G A N E G E O R G E W IT B A N K K O M A T I C A M D E N T A A IB O S H IG H V E LD V IE R F O N T E IN M A T LA A C A C IA P O R T R E X V A N D E R K LO O F K R IE L G A R IE P A R N O T H E N D R IN A 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 Y e a r
1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Generation, kwh/a Supply and demand II Our demand increases linearly by ~5.5TWh/a Equivalent to about 630MW new generation capacity 3E+11 2.5E+11 2E+11 1.5E+11 1E+11 5E+10 0 y = 5.5E+09x + 5.0E+10 Australia Columbia Linear (South Africa) Belgium South Africa
Supply and demand III We are not achieving growth at 5.5TWh/a or adding ~630MW of new generation (at 100% load factor) However, REIPPPP is already making a significant contribution CSIR recently calculated savings ~R5bn/a Largely due to reduction in diesel consumption for open cycle gas turbines But also due to reduction in unserved energy
Benefits of renewables Renewables come in small chunks - <100MW So they can be built rapidly Renewables can be sited close to point of use So transmission demands can be minimized Their fuel comes free So their variable costs are very low
ZAR/MWh Drawbacks of renewables I Capacity factors are low Capital costs per TWh generated are high 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Source: EPRI Report to DME 2012
Drawbacks of renewables II The energy generated is non-dispatchable You only get it when the wind blows or the sun shines The supply can be very unreliable Source: http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
Drawbacks of renewables III The net result is that you need storage MW level storage is expensive & inefficient Pumped storage is the best bet Ingula has a capital cost of R465/MWh at a 10% load factor And you also need an increase in spinning reserves Both of these add to the costs of power
International experience I The best international experience is Germany s Energiewende 80 to 95% greenhouse gas reduction by 2050 60% renewable energy share by 2050 (renewables broadly defined as hydro, solar and wind power) electricity efficiency up by 50% by 2050 an associated research and development drive
International experience II Achieved 28% renewables by 2014 However - - - Over 8000km of new power lines needed, but environmental objections to this Very limited storage potential in Germany Not enough space in Germany to increase wind much further Consumer energy costs now highest in Europe Base load now uneconomic Stations now closing with associated grid instability
South African plans I IRP 2010 published finally March 2012 Update published for comment late 2013 Many negative comments Update effectively withdrawn, so IRP2010 still THE PLAN
South African plans II Focus on renewable energy via REIPPPP Four rounds complete, Full details of Round 4 not to hand at time of writing R162bn of private capital 4700MW of installed renewable capacity Wind and PV costs dramatically reduced over the 4 rounds Wind R619/MWh, solar PV R786/MWh By any measure a startling change
South African plans III Capacity factors assumed in IRP appear realistic However, transmission challenges One completed 100MW system still not connected And going forward, there may be growing problems
System capacity, MW Reliable margin South African plans IV 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 27% 24% 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Peaking Variable Mid merit Base Reliable margin
South African plans V NB Base load which drives industry grows very slowly Midmerit and peaking grow rapidly to cope with increasing renewables Reserve margin falls to <15% within ten years With some optimistic capacity factors on Eskom s old power stations
And so - - - Present plans, with HUGE increase in renewables, leave us with problems We need to grow base load faster The move to accelerate nuclear cannot happen fast enough We are still in the dark about how to cope when 25% of our power comes from renewables Fortunately, we are not alone in this!
Thank you For hearing me out For being such a good audience Any questions??