SITUATION, TRENDS AND PROSPECTS OF THE SUPPLY OF FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTS TO THE EU MARKET European Commission Seminar Madrid 15 April 2010 Audun Lem, FAO 1
Outline World fish supply and demand production and consumption trade EU market outsourcing of production and processing distribution trends fish prices Rise of aquaculture Conclusions 2
WORLD FISH SUPPLY 3
World fish production Million t 2007 2008 2009e 2009/ 2008 Capture 90 90 90 0 Farmed 50 53 54 1.8% Total 140 143 144 0.7% 4
World Fish Production 160 140 Millions of tonnes Aquaculture Catch 120 aquaculture 100 80 60 40 catch 20 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 FISHSTAT 2007 5
Per caput food supply Kg/year 2007 2008 2009 2009/08 Food fish 17.0 17.1 17.1-0.3% Capture 9.5 9.3 9.1-1.5% Farmed 7.5 7.9 8.0 1.1% 6
World aquaculture production: growing quickly 1950-2008, but slowing down 60 50 Millions of tonnes Aquaculture 40 30 20 aquaculture 10 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 7
Capture fisheries producers 2007 ghg others Russia EU China India Indonesia Japan Chile Peru US China India Indonesia Japan Chile Peru US EU Russia Others 8
Aquaculture producers 2008 China China India VietNam Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Japan Chile Norway Rest 9
WORLD TRADE 10
World Fish Trade: Export Value 120,000,000 - in 1000 US$ - 100,000,000 80,000,000 Developing countries or areas Developed countries or areas 60,000,000 developing 40,000,000 20,000,000 developed 0 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 11
WORLD FISH EXPORTS US$ 101.6 BILLION (2008) TRADE GROWING UNTIL 08 + 9 % (2008/2007) 2008 EXPORTS & IMPORTS > USD 100 BILL for 1 st time DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 50 % OF WORLD EXPORTS NET EXPORT REVENUES FROM FISHERIES CRUCIAL FOR MANY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES USD$ 26 bill. (2008) 12
WORLD FISH EXPORTS US$ 93.4 BILLION (2009est) TRADE CRASHED IN 2009 (est( 12 months) - 8.1 % values - 0.6 % volume (live weight conversion) est. 2009 EXPORTS USD 93.4 BILLION est. 2009 IMPORTS USD 98.5 BILLION DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 50.7 % OF WORLD EXPORTS 13
Share of world fisheries production destined to exports Million tonnes (live weight) 160 140 120 100 80 60 Production Export 40 20 0 1976 1982 1988 1994 2000 2006 14
Main fish exporters 2008 (value) China 10% Norway 6% Thailand 6% USA 5% Viet Nam 4% Chile 4% EU (25) 26% Indonesia 2% Russia 2% Canada 4 % 15
Main fish importers (2008) Japan US EU Total big 3 USD 14.5 bill. 13.4 % USD 14.1 bill. 13.1 % USD 45.0 bill. 41.7 % USD 73.6 bill. 68.1 % Total world USD 108 bill. 100 % 16
Main fish importers (2009) Japan US EU Total big 3 USD 13.2 bill. - 9 % USD 13.1 bill. - 7 % USD 39.5 bill. -13 % USD 65.8 bill. - 11 % Total world USD 98.5 bill. -8.8% 17
2010 trends? revival in world fish trade consumption increasing again in most markets prices: up for some products and species currency issues important much uncertainty remains 18
Fish market trends Japan: long-term decline but small rebound 2008, decline in 2009 high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput imports below 3 million tons in 2007 USA: : long-term growth, will overtake Japan as # 1 country rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg consumer confidence falling late 2008 and 2009 2010 turn-around EU: : long-term growth: # 1 market expanding population, stable consumption at ca 22 kg rising imports: e.g. catfish from Viet Nam, mussels from Chile, salmon from Norway and Chile, shrimp, groundfish etc 19
EU CONSUMPTION KG/CAPITA 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 1 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU27 20
AL1 EU IMPORT VOLUMES 2008 2009 in million tons 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008 2009 2008 1 2 2009 21
Slide 21 AL1 Lem, Audun (FIPM); 10/04/2010
EU IMPORT VALUES BILLION 2008-2009 2009 30.5 30 29.5 29 28.5 28 27.5 2008 1 2009 2 22
EU 10 LARGEST IMPORTERS BY VALUE ( ) ( ) IN 2009 (86% OF TOTAL) 4.5 4 3.5 Billions 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 DENMARK FRANCE GERMANY NETHERLANDS SPAIN UK BELGIUM ITALY POLAND PORTUGAL 23
EU TRENDS wide variety in consumption: 4-554 kg! trend towards more common food habits and less extremes fish availability and distribution plays a role increasing import dependency prospects for capture and aquaculture? capture: stable or long term decline aquaculture: not only a question of competitiveness, but a societal choice 24
EU Not one market, but 27 national markets with numerous sub- markets Large differences among countries; e.g. Mediterranean vs Northern Europe freshwater vs marine species attitude towards aquaculture and wild whole fish, gutted, value-added added fresh vs frozen Distribution issues also different Difference in economic situation growth vs stagnation 25
World Distribution 67 % of world imports by three markets within these markets: supermarkets represent 50-85 % of retail sales concentration of sales whereas industry remains fragmented tendency in developing countries: urbanization at the same time: seafood retail net margins reportedly low compared to other food products 26
Future? Supply side: more concentration in aquaculture for some species (salmon, European bass/bream. Shrimp?) focus on costs, economies of scale focus on marketing and distribution market and product segmentation Demand: retail concentration in developed and developing Aquaculture has some advantages over wild: standardized product, size traceability predictability contracts on price and volumes 27
ISSUES OF IMPACT 28
Global trend of outsourcing of both production and processing Asia (China, Thailand, Viet Nam) but also Morocco (canning) Poland/Baltic countries (marinades, smoking) Growing share of production in developing countries, esp. of aquaculture 29
Role of China in production World capture and aquaculture production 160 140 120 Million tonnes 100 80 60 40 World excluding China China 20 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Year 30
Seafood Consumption - China 31
Protein Consumption - China 32
The next China: Viet Nam 2008: Nr 5 among world exporters 200,000+ tons of pangasius to EU alone but a growing fish importer as well reprocessing domestic consumption Future: India? 33
Fish prices 34
The FAO Fish price index; (2005 = 100) 35
FUTURE FISH PRICES? DEMAND: slowly rising because of population growth small underlying increase in per kaput consumption SUPPLY capture: stable, not increasing aquaculture: increasing but declining growth unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements PRICE IMPACT? most probably slightly higher fish prices but not much price cycles in commodity markets industry profitability through product development, technological innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing 36
AQUACULTURE FUTURE fastest growing food producing sector in the world accounts for almost 50% of global food fish supply 53 million tons of fish produced worth US$ 98 billion (2008) Given the projected population growth, an additional 40 million tons of aquatic food needed by 2030 to maintain current per caput consumption. 37
Aquaculture development many countries prioritize an export driven aquaculture development export markets, economic activities but other elements are essential as well social issues environmental issues for long-term sustainable growth, all three elements must be included an ecosystem based development 38
CONCLUSIONS Fish has always been a globalized commodity but of higher importance for developing countries than most other commodities Fish production is increasing, but only thanks to aquaculture: 47% 4 share in 2009 in food fish Fish trade trend is positive: USD 100 billion in 2008, but drop in 2009 New growth in 2010 Fish trade: big 3 import 67 % but in decline Outsourcing of production and processing Rise of China and Viet Nam, and Russia Future: India? Aquaculture will determine overall future supply but sustainable aquaculture developments must build on inclusion of economic, social and environmental criteria EU: # 1 import market with continued dependence on imports 39
THANK YOU 40