Proposed SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework UNECE Sustainable Energy Committee Geneva, November 28, 2012
Overall Context
Three global objectives for 2030: differential effort across countries 1. Achieve universal access to modern energy Electrification Clean cooking 2. Double share of renewable energy in global energy mix 3. Double rate of historic improvement in energy efficiency
Three objectives mutually reinforcing
Most of critical access countries have already opted in 61 opt-in countries account for 79% of 1.3 billion access deficit cover 8 of top 10 access deficit countries key missing countries with large access deficits are Sudan and Myanmar 21% 79% Opt-In Others
On renewable energy and energy efficiency there is still some way to go 61 opt-in countries account for just 11% of global energy consumption Adding China, India and South Africa would add a further 24% Adding additional CEM countries would add a further 49% 16% 11% 24% 49% Opt-In 61 Possible Opt-Ins (China, India and South Africa) CEM countries (excluding China and India) Others
Objectives of Global Tracking Framework 1. Identify feasible and defensible approaches for measuring the three objectives 2. Establish starting point for 2010 against which future progress can be measures 3. Identify areas of high impact opportunities and recent rapid progress 4. Evaluate scale of challenge involved in meeting the objectives
Phased approach to Global Tracking Global tracking Country tracking Immediate Indicator ready to go for global tracking with all data needs (past, present, future) already fully met Na. Medium term Indicator desirable for global tracking, but necessitates feasible incremental investment in global energy data systems over 5 years Indicator ideal for tracking: although too ambitious for global tracking, could be very suitable for country tracking
Energy Access
Methodological challenges in measuring access to electrification Current household surveys support only binary measure of with or without electricity Overlooks many key issues Adoption of solar lanterns, solar home systems Quantity and quality of available power supply Illegal and secondary connections Community and productive uses of power Over time household surveys could be improved to support multi-tier framework
Evolution towards a multi-tier framework for electricity
Global electrification trends By Demography By Regions The global electrification rate has risen from 76% in 1990 to 83% in 2010. The expansion is largely driven by access in rural areas which grew from 64% to 70%. Electrification in urban areas registered a small increase from 94% to 96% percent. South-eastern Asia (SEA) and Southern Asia (SA) regions increased access by 17 and 24 percentage points, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) followed far behind with 7 percentage points rise (24% access rate in 1990 to 32% in 2010).
Global incremental electrification By Demography By Regions
Global electrification access deficit The global electrification rate in 2010 is 83%. 17% percent of global population or (1.14 billion people) do not have access to electricity and 89% of them lives in rural areas mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southern Asia (SA) (1 billion people without access).
Methodological challenges in measuring access to modern cooking Current household surveys support only binary measure of non-solid fuel use Overlooks many key issues Adoption of clean cook stoves, improved biomass Coexistence of multiple cooking fuels Adherence to standards of use and maintenance Over time household surveys could be improved to support multi-tier framework
Evolution towards a multi-tier framework for clean cooking 16
Global trends in non-solid fuel use By Demography By Regions The global non-solid fuel use (NSFU) rate has risen from 47% in 1990 to 59% in 2010. This expansion is largely driven by rural NSFU rate which grew from 26% to 35% and urban NSFU which increased from 77% to 84% percent. South Asia (SA) and Caucasus Central Asia (CCA) regions increased access rate by 32 and 27 percentage points, respectively. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) followed far behind with 5 percentage point rise. 17
Global incremental non-solid fuel use By Demography By Regions 18
Global modern cooking access deficit The global fraction of primary non-solid fuels use (NSFU) for cooking in 2010 is 59%. Primary solid fuel use (SFU) encompasses 41% of the population or 2.78 billion people. About 79% of the SFU population lives in rural areas and 98% is geographically concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Eastern Asia (EA), Southern Asia (SA), and South-eastern Asia (SEA) 19
Renewable Energy
Methodological challenges in measuring renewable energy Definition of renewable energy Energy from renewable sources (bio-energy, geothermal, hydro, ocean, solar, wind) Ensuring sustainability Traditional biomass Methodological issues Primary versus final energy Missing or under-measured sources Complementary indicators
Starting point for global renewable energy share in 2010 Fossil Fuels: 79.1% Nuclear: 2.5% Renewable Energy 18.0% Traditional Biomass (9.6%) Modern Biomass (3.7%) Biofuels (0.8%) Wind (0.3%) Solar (0.2%) Biogas (0.2%) Geothermal (0.2%) Waste (0.1%) Marine (< 0.01%) Hydro (3.1%)
Global trends in renewable energy share
Energy Efficiency
Methodological challenges in measuring energy efficiency Energy intensity vs. energy efficiency Intensity plus efficiency decomposition Market Exchange Rate vs. Purchasing Power Parity Purchasing Power Parity Multi-dimensionality of energy efficiency Track 7 key sectors alongside aggregate Primary energy versus final energy Primary for aggregate, final for sectoral Volatility of efficiency measures Track moving average 25
Trade-off between depth and coverage 26
Comparing energy intensity measures in MER and PPP terms Energy intensity MER 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 1980-2010 Energy intensity PPP 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 1980-2010 -0.20% -0.94% -1.27% -1.34% -1.25% -1.47% -1.14% -1.28% Last decade saw shift in global output towards non-oecd countries with typically lower domestic price levels leading to a sharp increase in the global PPP/MER ratio Global Tracking Framework Energy Efficiency Chapter 27
Comparing energy intensity and efficiency decomposition measures Efficiency decomposition PPP 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 1980-2010 Energy intensity PPP 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 1980-2010 -0.20% -0.94% -1.27% -1.34% -1.25% -1.47% -1.14% -1.28% Source: Enerdata Efficiency decomposition based on Divisia method extracts activity effect and structural change so as to isolate intensity effect showing faster pace of improvement overall Global Tracking Framework Energy Efficiency Chapter 28
Unpacking rate of improvement across key energy consuming sectors At PPP CAGR 1980-2010 (left) EI in 1980 (right) EI in 2010 (right) 0% Industry Residential Services Transport Agriculture 0.3-1.8% -1.7% -1.5% -1.1% 0.2-3% -2.5% 0.0 29
Summary
Proposed approach for global tracking Energy access Immediate Binary access measure based on existing household surveys Medium term Modify household survey design to permit multi-tier access framework Renewable energy Renewable energy share based on total final energy consumption (including traditional biomass) Improve ability to measure sustainability (especially with respect to traditional biomass) Energy efficiency Primary energy intensity in PPP terms including efficiency decomposition and 7 complementary sectoral intensity measures Improve ability to measure drivers of energy intensity, as well as sub-sectoral efficiency measures