NOVEMBER 2017 USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND ESTIMATES Overview Corn: This month s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook included larger production, increased feed use and exports, and higher ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 14.578 billion bushels, up 298 million from last month on a record-high yield. Feed and residual use was increased 75 million bushels based on a larger crop. Exports were raised 75 million bushels, reflecting expectations of improved U.S. competitiveness, reduced exports out of Ukraine, and increased demand from Mexico based on lower sorghum production prospects. Corn ending stocks were increased 147 million bushels from last month to 2.487 billion bushels. The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged with a midpoint of $3.20 per bushel. Soybeans: Soybean production was forecast at 4.425 billion bushels, down 5 million due to a fractionally lower yield. With use unchanged, soybean ending stocks are projected at 425 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $9.30 per bushel, up 10 cents at the midpoint. Soybean production for Brazil was increased 1 million tons to 108 million on higher reported area. Argentina s production was unchanged at 57 million tons. Soybean imports for China were increased 2 million to 97 million metric tons. Long-Grain Rice: U.S. long-grain production was reduced by 200,000 cwt. this month on lower Louisiana and Texas yields. However, lower production was offset by an increase in imports and a 1 million cwt. drop in exports. The U.S. average long-grain price per bushel was reduced by 9 cents to $5.54 per bushel. This year s long-grain production is expected to be the smallest since 2011/12. Ending stocks were increased to 16.5 million cwt. Cotton: This month s 2017/18 U.S. cotton estimates included higher production and ending stocks, as a smaller crop in the West was more than offset by gains in the Southwest and other regions. While the U.S. production forecast was increased by 1 percent, to 21.4 million bales, domestic mill use and exports were unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are now estimated 300,000 bales higher at 6.1 million bales. The marketing-year average price received by producers is forecast at 63 cents per pound, 3 cents above the October estimate.
2017-18 U.S. CORN PRODUCTION 15.148 14.578 14.280 13.80 14.00 14.20 14.40 14.60 14.80 15.00 15.20 15.40 billion bu. 2017-18 U.S. SOYBEAN PRODUCTION 4.296 4.425 4.431 4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 billion bu.
2017-18 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE PRODUCTION 166.5 126.1 126.3 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 million cwt. 2017-18 U.S. COTTON PRODUCTION 17.17 21.38 21.12 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 million bales
2017-18 U.S. CORN YIELD 174.6 175.4 171.8 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 bushels per acre 2017-18 U.S. SOYBEAN YIELD 52 49.5 49.5 48 48.5 49 49.5 50 50.5 51 51.5 52 52.5 bushels per acre
2017-18 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE YIELD 6927 7212 7220 6750 6800 6850 6900 6950 7000 7050 7100 7150 7200 7250 pounds per acre 2017-18 U.S. COTTON YIELD 867 900 889 850 860 870 880 890 900 910 pounds per acre
2017-18 U.S. CORN ENDING STOCKS 2.295 2.487 2.340 2.150 2.200 2.250 2.300 2.350 2.400 2.450 2.500 2.550 billion bu. 2017-18 U.S. SOYBEAN ENDING STOCKS 301 425 430 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390 410 430 450 million bu.
2017-18 U.S. LONG-GRAIN RICE ENDING STOCKS 31 16.5 15.3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 million cwt. 2017-18 U.S. COTTON ENDING STOCKS 2.75 6.1 5.8 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 million bales
U.S. Average Producer Price, 2016/17 and Forecast 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 forecast Corn $3.36 $3.20 Soybeans $9.47 $9.30 Long-Grain Rice $4.34 / bu. $5.54 / bu. Southern Medium-Grain $4.55 / bu. $5.63 / bu. Cotton.68.63 Wheat $3.89 $4.60 Grain Sorghum $2.79 $3.10 Source: USDA, November 2017. The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture offers all its Extension and Research programs and services without regard to race, color, sex, gender identity, sexual orientation, national origin, religion, age, disability, marital or veteran status, genetic information, or any other legally protected status, and is an Affirmative Action/Equal Opportunity Employer.