Energy & Climate Change ENYGF 2015 Ellina Levina Environment & Climate Change Unit Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology, IEA 22 June 2015
29 Member Countries: Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, United States, Canada, Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey and United Kingdom, Estonia Chile is in the process of accession. Energy Security Environmental Protection Economic Growth Promote diversity, efficiency and flexibility within the energy sectors of the IEA member countries. Remain prepared collectively to respond to energy emergencies. Expand international cooperation with all global players in the energy markets. Develop more environmentally acceptable energy options. Promote greenhouse gas emission abatement, through energy efficiency and the use of low-carbon and cleaner fossil fuels. Assess best options to address climate change. Work to ensure the stable and affordable supply of energy and promote free markets in order to foster economic growth. Promote access to modern energy services globally.
Energy & climate change today Energy production & use accounts for two-thirds of global greenhouse-gas emissions Energy sector must cut emissions, while powering economic growth, boosting energy security & increasing energy access A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fast approaching COP21 in Paris in December 2015 Momentum is building: Historic US-China joint announcement; EU 2030 targets agreed Developed & developing countries are putting forward new pledges to reduce emissions Many energy companies & investors are starting to engage WEO Special Report on Energy and Climate Change, 2015
Energy emissions stall but economic engine keeps running Global energy-related CO 2 emissions Gt 35 30 25 Dissolution of Soviet Union Global economic downturn 20 15 10 5 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2014 For the first time, energy-related CO 2 emissions stalled despite the global economy expanding by 3% WEO Special Report on Energy and Climate Change, 2015
Mtoe 10 000 8 000 Changing dynamics of global demand Energy demand by region Rest of world 6 000 4 000 2 000 OECD Rest of world China OECD China 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 As China slows, then India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and parts of Africa & Latin America take over as the engines of global energy demand growth.
Mtoe Mtoe Changing dynamics of global demand Energy demand by fuel 2 500 OECD 4 000 Non-OECD Coal 2 000 Oil Gas 1 500 Gas Oil Renewables 1 000 Coal Nuclear Coal 500 Nuclear Renewables 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 3 000 2 000 1 000 Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear A flat demand in OECD disguise a fast changing energy mix, while developing countries thirst for all energy sources keeps increasing
The Way Forward https://www.iea.org/topics/climatechange/the_way_forward.pdf
1. Seize the benefits of immediate action to bend the global emissions curve World energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2014
Gt CO 2 -eq 1. Peak in emissions: IEA strategy to raise climate ambition Global energy-related GHG emissions Savings by measure, 2030 40 35 30 25 INDC Scenario Bridge Scenario Upstream methane reductions Renewables investment Fossil-fuel subsidy reform 15% 17% 10% 9% 49% Energy efficiency 20 2000 2014 2020 2025 2030 Reducing inefficient coal Five measures shown in a Bridge Scenario achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth WEO Special Report on Energy and Climate Change, 2015
2. Focus on electricity decarbonisation To 2030, electricity sector decarbonisation has the largest impact. Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2014
Low-carbon technologies for 2DS A portfolio of low-carbon technologies is needed to reach the 2DS; some solutions will be broadly applicable, while others will need to target specific sectors. 6DS 2DS Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2015
3. Reshape investment and accelerate innovation now in low-carbon technologies The innovation challenge Gt CO 2 60 50 40 Near-term impacts 6DS Longer-term needs Nuclear (7%) Power gen. efficiency & fuel switching (2%) Renewables (30%) 30 20 10 2DS End-use fuel switching (9%) CCS (14%) End-use fuel & electricity efficiency (38%) 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2014
There is no one-size fits all solution that can meet all local requirements Regional technology shares in primary energy supply National circumstances and resources will drive different technology portfolios and pathways Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2015
Retirements add to the investment challenge in the power sector Power capacity by source, 2013-2040 Oil Nuclear 2013 capacity 5 950 GW Coal Gas Renewables Additions 7 200 GW 2040 Capacity 10 700 GW Retirements 2 250 450 GW Despite limited demand growth, OECD countries account for one-third of capacity additions to compensate for retirements & to decarbonise
4. Mobilise non-climate goals to promote energy sector emission reductions GHG emission reductions are cobenefits of other policy objectives.
5. Strengthen energy sector resilience to climate change Past energy demand patterns cannot serve to plan future energy systems. Increases in energy demand for space cooling after accounting for climate change Source: World Energy Outlook Special Report: Redrawing the Energy-Climate Map, 2013
Nuclear power can play a role in CO 2 abatement & energy security CO 2 emissions avoided annually by nuclear power 1971-2040 Share of energy demand met by domestic sources and nuclear power in 2040 Gt 2.5 100% 2.0 80% 1.5 60% 1.0 0.5 40% 20% 1971 1980 2000 2020 2040 China United States European Union Indigenous Nuclear production Indigenous & production nuclear Japan Korea Net imports
GW Canada India Nuclear power: public concerns must be heard and addressed Retirements of nuclear power capacity 1990 2000 2010 2013 2020 2030 2040 Spent nuclear fuel 1971-2040: 705 thousand tonnes 50 United States European Union 100 150 200 38% of today s capacity to retire by 2040 European Union United States Japan Others China 1971-2012 1971-2040 350 705 thousand tonnes Russia Korea Japan Other By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles
Concluding thoughts Pledges are not yet enough to achieve our climate goal, but are a basis from which to build ambition Companies that do not anticipate stronger energy & climate policies risk being at a competitive disadvantage For COP21, the IEA proposes four key energy sector outcomes: 1. Target a near-term peak in emissions 2. Five-year revision, to test the scope for raising ambition 3. Lock in the vision by setting a long-term emissions goal 4. Track the transition in the energy sector Without clear direction from Paris in 2015, the world is set for warming well beyond the 2 C goal
Thank you Ellina Levina Ellina.LEVINA@iea.org Environment & Climate Change Unit Sustainable Technology and Policy Directorate International Energy Agency