Low Carbon Transport in Asia: Strategies for Optimizing Co-benefits Hayama, Japan 26 June 2009 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Chairman, Board of Directors, International Council on Clean Transportation 1
Global Vehicle Production and Sales by Region (2007) Middle East 1.8% Central/South America 5.2% North America 20.7% Production Total: 74657260 Africa 1.1% Asia-Pacific 39.4% Sales Total: 71900856 Middle East 3.3% Africa Central/South America 2.0% 6.1% North America 26.9% Asia-Pacific 29.8% Europe 31.9% Europe 31.9% The Global b l Market M k For F New N Motorcycles and Mopeds Middle East 0.4% Latin America 3.5% Europe 7.9% Total: 29792139 North America 31% 3.1% Oceania 0.3% Africa 0.4% Asia 84.4% Source: Honda Facts & Figures 4
100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Global Forecast of Light Duty Vehicle Sales (Millions) 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Africa Latin America Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America Source: IEA Lew Fulton Pollution Shifting From Coal Based To Vehicle Based Shanghai November 2004 Beijing November 2004 6
One Result: Serious Health Concerns WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; Most in Asia Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. No Evidence of a Threshold h PAPA Project Indicates Similar Effects in Asia Ozone, NO 2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns 7 Increased Risk of Premature Mortality Due To 10μg/m 3 PM PM 2.5 8% 7% 6% 5% All Causes 4% Pulmonary Lung Cancer 3% 2% 1% 0% Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002 8
PM 10 in Major cities Slide 9 Source: Cohen et al, 2005 Another Result: Congestion and Noise Have Become Major Urban Problems 10
Another Result: The World is on Fire Rongbuk Glacier Rongbuk glacier in 1968 (top) and 2007. The largest glacier on Mount Everest s northern slopes feeds Rongbuk River.
Annex 1 Party Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Energy Sector Change 1990-2004 (%) 30% 24% 20% 10% 9% 0% -10% -8% -4% -20% Energy Industries Transportation Manufacturing Industries and Construction Other Sectors -17% Fugitive Emissions What Pollutants Are Of Concern? Greenhouse Gases - CO2, methane, BC Haze Ozone (ROG + NOx) Particles (PM10/PM2.5) (NOx, SOx, ROG, ammonia) Carbon monoxide (CO) Toxics - Diesel particles - Benzene - Chromium - Asbestos 14
ELEMENTS OF A COMPREHENSIVE VEHICLE POLLUTION CONTROL STRATEGY CLEAN VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY APPROPRIATE MAINTENANCE TRANSPORTATION & LAND USE PLANNING CLEAN FUELS Bellagio Principles Design Programs & Policies i That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel Treat Vehicles and Fuels As A System New Vehicle Standards for Greenhouse Emissions & Conventional Pollutants t Should Be Fuel Neutral Expect & Require Best Technologies and Fuels Worldwide in Both Industrialized and Developing Countries WWW.THEICCT.ORG
Trends in Passenger Car Exhaust Emissions Standards NOx Emissions Standards Grams/Kilometer 35 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 USA EU China Beijing 0 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Actual and Projected GHG Emissions for New Passenger Vehicles by Country/Region, 2002-202 TEST 270 250 Dotted line: Proposed or contested Solid lines: Enacted GR RAMS CO2 PE ER KILOMET TER (NEDC 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 AUSTRALIA CHINA S. KOREA CALIFORN JAPAN UNITED STAT EUROPEAN UNIO 90 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: Passenger Vehicle Greenhouse Gas and Fuel Economy Standards: A Global Update, ICCT. May 2009 update.
Carbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story! BC has a Significant Impact on Global Warming Direct BC warming is large at the global (and regional) scale BC deposition on snow has a strong warming effect 2 ) Change in Forcing Since 17 750 (W/m 2 2 1.5 1 05 0.5 0-0.5-1 CO 2 CH 4 Co-emissions of organic carbon and/or other particles may partially offset BC warming Black Carbon (IPCC, 2007) Red: Snow Albedo Effect Black Carbon (R&C, 2008) Organic Carbon Sources: IPCC AR4 WG1 2007 for all except Ramanathan & Carmichael 2008 BC bar
Relative Albedo Measured from 0.00 (dark) to 1.00 (bright) Black Carbon = 0.04 Fresh Snow = 0.9 For the majority of the sampled weeks, night samples showed higher BC concentrations than day samples. This observation could be explained by the regulation, that lorries are only allowed to drive during night time in most parts of Beijing.
Modern Diesel? 23 Why Design Policies That Reduce Conventional, Toxic, Noise and Greenhouse Emissions in Parallel? Policies or strategies can produce greenhouse gas reductions more rapidly by ypursuing co-benefits Single integrated actions are more likely to succeed than multiple actions Non-climate benefits will engage developing nations potentially responsible for the majority of future emissions growth Low carbon transport in Asia will depend upon the extent which policymakers adopt a co-benefit approach.
But many challenges remain Technical Climate and development trade-offs Integrating co-benefits into policies Financial Mobilize sufficient resources Engaging key sectoral interests (vehicle manufacturers) Institutional Incentivize adoption of multi-benefit policies Capacity to implement policies Sections in the Book: To Address These Challenges 1) Analytical Frameworks To identify transport policies that can maximize climate and developmental l co-benefits in developing Asia. 2) Case Studies To assess and help overcome barriers to realizing climate and developmental co-benefits in developing Asia. 3) The Future Climate Regime To determine how the future climate change regime can support sustainable, low carbon transport in developing Asia. 4) The Way Forward To synthesize results and present key findings.
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