INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004 Claude Mandil Executive Director International Energy Agency International Energy Symposium, IEEJ Tokyo 16 November 2004
Global Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
World Primary Energy Demand 7 000 6 000 Oil Mtoe 5 000 4 000 3 000 Natural gas Coal 2 000 Other renewables 1 000 Nuclear power Hydro power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel
Regional Shares in World Primary Energy Demand 2002 2030 38% 43% 52% 48% 10% 9% 10 200 Mtoe 16 325 Mtoe OECD Transition economies Developing countries Two-thirds of the increase in world demand between 2002 and 2030 comes from developing countries, especially in Asia
Increase in World Primary Energy Production by Region 6 000 5 000 4 000 share of total increase (%) 85% Mtoe 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 59% 31% 10% 12% 3% 1971-2002 2002-2030 OECD Transition economies Developing countries Almost all the increase in production to 2030 occurs outside the OECD, up from less than 70% in 1971-2002
Inter-Regional Trade in World Fossil-Fuel Supply 6 000 5 000 Trade as % of world demand Mtoe 4 000 3 000 46% 63% 26% 15% 2 000 15% 14% 1 000 0 2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030 Oil Gas Coal Domestic consumption Traded between regions Energy trade between regions more than doubles by 2030, most of it still in the form of oil
Oil Flows & Major Chokepoints: The Dire Straits The risk of an oil-supply disruption will grow as trade & flows through key maritime & pipeline chokepoints expand
Cumulative Energy Investment, 2003-2030 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Transition economies China Other Asia Middle East Africa Latin America 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 billion $ (2000) Coal Oil Gas Electricity Power sector absorbs 62% of global energy investment in the period 2003-2030
Growth in World Energy Demand & CO 2 Emissions 2.5% average annual growth rate 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1971-2002 2002-2030 Primary energy demand Emissions Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 in contrast to past trends
CO 2 Emissions, 1971-2030 20 000 16 000 Mt of CO 2 12 000 8 000 4 000 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 OECD Transition economies Developing countries CO 2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
Asia-Pacific Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
China s share of Incremental World Production & Energy Demand, 1998-2003 GDP Crude steel production Cement production Ethylene production* Primary oil demand Primary coal demand Electricity demand CO2 emissions 2 0 20 40 60 80 per cent Booming industrial production in China is driving up energy demand & emissions - and energy prices
Share of Developing Asia in World Incremental Energy Demand 90 80 70 60 per cent 50 40 30 20 10 0 1971-2002 2002-2030 Primary energy demand Coal Oil Gas Electricity consumption Developing Asia will account for 42% of the increase in demand through 2030, compared with 34% in the last three decades
China Oil Supply Balance 15 80% 12 60% mb/d 9 6 40% 20% 3 0% 0-20% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Production Demand Imports as % of demand (right axis) China s oil imports will soar from around 2 mb/d now to almost 10 mb/d in 2030 equal to over 74% of domestic demand
OECD Asia Energy Trends: Reference Scenario
Primary Fuel Mix in Japan & Korea 2002 2030 Hydro 1% Nuclear 15% Renewables 2% Coal 20% Nuclear 18% Hydro 1% Renewables 4% Coal 18% Gas 12% Gas 18% Oil 50% 721 Mtoe 956 Mtoe Oil 41% Increased use of gas & nuclear for power generation reduces the share of oil & coal in the primary fuel mix
Primary Gas Demand in Japan & Korea 140 120 100 bcm 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030 Japan Korea Power generation underpins surging gas use in both Japan & Korea
Change in Electricity Generation by Fuel in Japan & Korea 450 350 250 TWh 150 50-50 1971-2002 2002-2030 -150 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Most new power-generation capacity is gas-fired or nuclear
Increase in Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Sector in Japan & Korea 250 200 Mt of CO2 150 100 50 0 1990-2002 2002-2030 Power generation Industry Transport Other Most of the projected increase in emissions comes from power generation & transport in almost equal measure
Asia-Pacific Energy Trends: Alternative Policy Scenario
Japan & Korea CO 2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios 2 100 2 000 1 900 1 800 Mt of CO 2 1 700 1 600 1 500 1 400 1 300 1 200 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario With new policies, Japan & Korea stabilise their emissions in the 2010s and drive them back down to 2002 levels by 2030
China CO 2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios Mt of CO 2 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario With new policies, China could curb its CO 2 emissions by 18% in 2030
Contributory Factors in CO 2 Reduction Alternative vs Reference Scenario 2002-2030 100% 80% 60% 5% 10% 20% 7% 8% 12% 21% 10% 21% 15% 1% 5% 4% 17% 7% 40% 20% 58% 49% 63% 67% 0% World OECD Transition economies Developing countries End-use efficiency gains Fuel switching in end uses Increased renewables in power generation Increased nuclear in power generation Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%
Summary & Conclusions
Summary & Conclusions (1) On current policies, world energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030 than now Energy resources are more than adequate to meet demand until 2030 & well beyond But projected market trends raise serious concerns: Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions Rising CO 2 emissions Huge energy-investment needs Persistent energy poverty More vigorous policies would curb rate of increase in energy demand & emissions significantly But a truly sustainable energy system will call for faster technology development & deployment Urgent & decisive government action is needed
Summary & Conclusions (2) Asia s importance to world energy markets and its share in CO 2 emissions - will continue to grow Most of the region s incremental demand & emissions will come from developing Asia notably China & India Energy demand will grow much more slowly in Japan & Korea Net imports of oil & gas and reliance on key chokepoints - will continue to grow New policies would reverse the rising emissions trend in OECD Asia, but not in developing Asia